CORN
Long C H1 as it is both bullish in FA & TACorn continues to trade along the lower end of the trend channel. Both daily and weeklies are still on the uptrend but watch carefully as some of the momentum indicators continue to flatten.
On the fundamental side, erratic weather patterns in South America and continuous large demand from the Chinese continue the bullish case for the corn and the grains complex. My initial TP on the trade is around 4.50 for starters, entry is 4.25, and stop loss level is set at 4.20. Thinking of an R-Multiple of 5. Though as soon as the trade goes my way, will lift my stops to breakeven.
Corn Short, Based on COT data and TAZC1!
Commercial accounts are currently net short on corn futures contracts (-355k contracts), while as noncommercial accounts aka, Retail traders, are net long (+411k contracts). These two positions are at extreme polarized ends of the play. Usually commercials tend to be net short on any asset but its the extremes one should keep an eye on.
Corn is currently at a basing pattern, with a previous impulsive move to the downside. Entering at a base is relatively risky, since the pattern can either turn into a drop base drop or a drop base rally pattern. So one can play this two ways, enter short at the base with a tight SL so if an impulsive move to the upside were to occur, you will stop out with minimal damage. Or, wait for the pattern to play out and if the pattern is a drop base rally, then short a potential double top. The play I am making is short at the base of this pattern with a SL at 407'5.
Targets for the short are
- 0.5 retracement
- 0.618 retracement
- 0.786 retracement
- 305'4
I will be taking profits at each target, with the last target being a runner position.
GRAIN SPREADS; Kansas Wheat - CBOT W - 2x Corn; Weekly long termCBOT:KE1! CBOT:ZW1! CBOT:ZC1! CBOT:ZS1!
KE (Kansas City) Wheat - CBOT (World) Wheat
These tend to be extremely reliable signals, indicating long term trends / changes, as Wheat itself has a relatively long (~7 year) cycle. (Wheat growing regions spreading from (north) pole to (south) pole.)
UPTREND SUPPORT SLIDING DOWN - CORN - ZC1! - 30MNWe have seen an up trending line hidden but being actually acting like a super strong resistance line stopping the market to go further up. Shall we see it like a regulated price for the Corn ? Not sure. But this line is clearly sliding and in a very regular way giving us a probability to see it sliding further.
The black arrow are showing the sliding effect.
We have marked with a red line the potential next break. if it breaks, there is a strong probability to see the market going down further to the next blue line down, following the logic of a next level of support from past history data.
We have also market in green a potential break up, as the market decides at the end. But, that point can be seen as a probable good entry for a short position direction. A potential pullback down might occur as the candlestick in the red circle shows a brake in the uptrend. it is a signal. Huge volumes have been stopping the market from going up further.
For the moment we stick to the possible short direction scenario.
A short and Long view on the Weekly chart - CORN FuturesMain items we can see on the chart:
a) On the weekly chart, we can define 3 clear structures
b) The first structure is the support the price is currently in
c) The other 2 zones are the Targets we have either for the bullish or bearish movement
d) Our Long view will wait for the breakout of the descending trendline (yellow line) and we will expect for a corrective structure on a lower timeframe after that
e) The bearish scenario needs the support zone to be broken and then a corrective structure after that. The main target is the next support zone
f) Both scenarios have good potential in terms of movement
Corn Looking Aneamic - But How Low Is LowWith the breakdown in ethanol needs, general and feed lot demand, corn has suffered immensely. Recent favorable weather has also pushed the shine off the this juicy grain. From a fundamental point of view demand and exports looking to offer more support into later part of year, TA was looking good until recent sell off. The rally on 29th June shows how quickly the buyers can come back to market though. The drop 11th July however, shows how quickly contracts can fall. Overall, looking at 4 hour, long is my preference, given the higher lows, and higher highs since around the 29th April (from each large move not just the candles). That said I am careful of my entry point. For a riskier trade I would buy at today's price around $3.20, but I am also considering a wait and watch approach for a re-visit of $3 based on upcoming news. Fundamentals may produce more favourable yield results, but demand is set to return, and this may bring the buyers back for a snap rally - which is why I will avoid short positions at this multi year lower price point at this time.
Pop Corn rise 🦐After hitting an extreme support on the weekly chart the price has been moving up in a strong impulse.
Now after creating a falling wedge the market is trying to break above the resistance area for the next impulse up.
If the price will break and close above it we can look at the retest of the structure for a nice long order according with our rules.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis, please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
Corn (Central Banks can print money but they can't print food!)View On Corn (19 JUNE 2020)
As the investors focus only on the FANGs, the movement on CORN is pretty dull lately.
We believe it is a blessing in disguise. it is time to get in slow and steady.
Central Banks can print money but they can't print food.
It should go to $3.4 region soon and ultimately $3.72.
Let's see
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
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