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CORN

CORN Excellent 4-month buy opportunity.Corn's (ZC1!) price action since the COVID recovery in early 2020 is showcasing an amazing resemblance with the previous full Cycle of 2009 - 2014. This is better illustrated on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. Both started the Bull phase on a roughly +175% rebound on the 17 year Support Zone, topping on a Higher Highs (which was a Bearish Divergence with the Lower Highs of the 1M RSI) and then declined both astonishingly by -51.93%. This is where the market is at now. In 2014 the price rebounded by +28.78% back above the 1W MA50 marginally and just below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, before resuming the long-term decline to the 17 year Support Zone. As a result, this presents an excellent 4-month buy opportunity with 506'4 as the Target (+28.78%). Notice also that the 1M RSI is on the exact same level (33.75) as it was on the January 2014 Low, and is reversing. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by TradingShot
Is A Short-Covering Rally in Corn Imminent? There’s no beating around the bush - the fundamentals for corn remain bearish ahead of Thursday’s USDA report. Last month, USDA caught many by surprise revising ‘23 corn yields to record-highs of 177.3 bushels per acre. Since then, corn futures have continuously grinded lower. But, could a short-covering rally be in the offing soon? Per the last CFTC Commitments of Traders report, managed money funds have amassed a net-short position of 280,151 contracts (combined futures & options). That represents the largest net-short position in corn since 2019. While corn has continued making new lows, each of the last 4 contract lows have come in conjunction with less and less conviction - namely bullish divergence on the standard 14-day RSI. Moreover, the volume profile has gradually softened since the January USDA report. Thus, it's possible that all of the bears have already sold. The first step in a short-covering rally is getting bears to stop selling - and a friendly WASDE report on Thursday bares the potential to make that happen. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCH2024Long
by Blue_Line_Futures
EU faces pressure to defuse mounting anger as farmers protest aGiven the mounting anger and protests by farmers across Europe, there appears to be a significant challenge stemming from contradictory and potentially detrimental agricultural policies. The grievances include increased costs for agricultural diesel, additional fees for water consumption, complex regulations, and objections to bans on pesticides and herbicides mandated by the EU's Green Deal. The farmers are also concerned about the import of beef from countries like Brazil and Argentina, which they argue have laxer rules on animal welfare, making competition difficult. This unrest, originating in France but spreading to neighboring countries, signals a broader issue with unpredictable government decisions affecting agriculture. In the Netherlands and Germany, similar protests have arisen over regulations to cut nitrogen emissions and phase out fuel subsidies, respectively. In Germany, there is also resentment over what is perceived as the unfair application of environmental policies. With protests extending to Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria, concerns range from unfair competition from cut-price cereals to high taxes and tight regulations. The impact of droughts, floods, and wildfires, combined with the squeeze from green policies, has fueled discontent. For investors, this could be a pivotal moment to consider commodities such as cereals, soybeans, and copper. The disruptions in European agriculture may create fluctuations in the market, making these commodities potentially attractive for investment. However, it is crucial to monitor developments closely as tensions continue to grow, and the agricultural sector shapes up to be a major issue in the upcoming European Parliament elections in June.
AMEX:CORNLong
by Maximus20000
EU faces pressure to defuse mounting anger as farmers protest aGiven the mounting anger and protests by farmers across Europe, there appears to be a significant challenge stemming from contradictory and potentially detrimental agricultural policies. The grievances include increased costs for agricultural diesel, additional fees for water consumption, complex regulations, and objections to bans on pesticides and herbicides mandated by the EU's Green Deal. The farmers are also concerned about the import of beef from countries like Brazil and Argentina, which they argue have laxer rules on animal welfare, making competition difficult. This unrest, originating in France but spreading to neighboring countries, signals a broader issue with unpredictable government decisions affecting agriculture. In the Netherlands and Germany, similar protests have arisen over regulations to cut nitrogen emissions and phase out fuel subsidies, respectively. In Germany, there is also resentment over what is perceived as the unfair application of environmental policies. With protests extending to Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria, concerns range from unfair competition from cut-price cereals to high taxes and tight regulations. The impact of droughts, floods, and wildfires, combined with the squeeze from green policies, has fueled discontent. For investors, this could be a pivotal moment to consider commodities such as cereals, soybeans, and copper. The disruptions in European agriculture may create fluctuations in the market, making these commodities potentially attractive for investment. However, it is crucial to monitor developments closely as tensions continue to grow, and the agricultural sector shapes up to be a major issue in the upcoming European Parliament elections in June.
AMEX:WEATLong
by Maximus20000
The Corn Market Rundown: Prices, Acres, and WeatherJust a heads up, I'm not a commodity expert, but I'm keen to give it my best shot. So, keep that in mind as we dive in! Have you been tracking corn prices recently? You might've noticed a halt at the $7.15 level, a mark set last September and October. Likely, a lot of investors decided to take profits at this level. All this is happening just before Friday's acreage report, which many believe could significantly influence the market. Expectations around this report are varied. Some anticipate a similar outlook to the last report in March. Others predict a significant drop in corn acres planted - think 500k+ acres less. If the actual numbers come in below market expectations, it should be a positive shift for corn prices. In the grain stock department, the USDA surprised everyone with their last report. The grain stock numbers came in lower than what most folks expected, and it did stir the pot. A critical factor that everyone is keeping tabs on is the condition of the crops. Currently, there's a severe drought in the Corn Belt, and we're experiencing some of the worst crop conditions since 1988. Some regions are even on track for the driest June ever. That's not exactly a record anyone wanted to break. On a brighter note, weather forecasts indicate some much-needed rain is coming to the Corn Belt. The coverage looks a bit uneven, and it's challenging to predict the exact amount (1, 2, 3 inches, etc.). So the question remains, will it be enough? So let's sum this up. We've got to pay attention to three key things: acreage numbers, stock numbers, and weather patterns. Here are three possible scenarios: Base Scenario: No change in acreage and stock numbers, and the Corn Belt gets the necessary rainfall. Worst Case for Corn Prices: Acreage and stock numbers come in higher than expected, and the Corn Belt gets enough rainfall. Best Case for Corn Prices: Acreage and stock numbers come in lower than expected, and the Corn Belt receives little to no rainfall. Looking back at the corn price chart, the post-pandemic price surge seems to be slowing down. Some might even spot an angled head and shoulders pattern on the daily. If the price breaks below $5.70, it's not a great sign for corn. A further drop below $5.30 is even more concerning. If you measure the head and shoulders pattern from the head to the neckline, prices could potentially revert back to pre-pandemic ranges. In conclusion, if you're considering going long on corn, or if you're a farmer, a scenario of lower acreage numbers, lower stocks, and little to no rain in the belt could open up a good opportunity to go long, book profits, or negotiate better contracts. I hope this analysis helps anyone trying to navigate the corn market. As always, stay vigilant and keep those reports and weather forecasts close by!
OANDA:CORNUSD
by natron
Go woke go broke? - Anheuser Busch From a technical perspective, Anheuser-Busch InBev (AB InBev) presents an attractive opportunity due to a substantial drawdown of over 20% since April, attributed to a perceived shift toward 'wokeness.' This phenomenon, commonly expressed as "go woke go broke," often reflects boycotts against companies embracing diversity, equity, and inclusion, or, in AB InBev's case, partnering with transgender influencers. However, this negative sentiment has potentially led to AB InBev being undervalued. The uniqueness of this situation lies in AB InBev's diverse brand portfolio. Many of its brands are not immediately associated with the company, and while certain recognizable ones may face boycotts, the other brands continue to thrive. Notably, several of these brands hold higher market values than the more affordable ones that have been boycotted, which suggests that this strategic diversity could benefit the company. Additionally, as the outrage associated with 'wokeness' appears to be subsiding, AB InBev may find itself in a more favorable market position. Furthermore, in times of economic uncertainty or conflict, consumer demand for alcoholic beverages typically increases, and AB InBev's comprehensive product range positions it well to meet this potential surge in demand. Price Levels: Strong Support: $49.80 First Resistance $59.90 Target 1: $65.80 Target 2: $88.93 Long-Term Target: $106.00
NYSE:BUDLong
by Helios_Capital_Investment
CORN - KEYLEVELS - 2DHere I am neutrally bullish, we see a (possible) double bottom, which if it breaks the next level of resistance, could bring buyers and even greater interest. On the other hand, we must take into account that this correction is normal for grain, taking into account that the situation in Ukraine has calmed down and grain exports have resumed, thus all that growth since the beginning of the war, has now been closed and completed by a correction. The price is also decreasing due to the fact that the grain harvest was done in August-September and the stocks are full, but with the time when we get closer to spring, the prices must rise again.
SKILLING:CORNLong
by sfc95
10 Year Corn Projection (potentially)10yr Corn outlook: 1 thought (of many) on the potential course of the corn market for the next 10 years. I feel the job of the current market is to find a price high enough to ration future demand. Could be current price, 8.50, or 9.50. The potential is there for any of those numbers to mark a major swing high for Corn. The higher that mark is nearby, the more corn begins to ration future demand. The low found after a major high is made, could mark an area for the future multi year market structure. The market should remain very sensitive for another few years. Sensitive to world demand and production misses across the globe. There are many climate cycles coming ahead that could add to potential Ag production shortages. **Not a prediction, something to watch** At some point we return to a tighter, more defined market structure working low prices against the long term uptrend line… 4.50-5.25 ???
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
4
🌽 Corn Technical Analysis (GrainStats)Corn Fundamentals ( CBOT:ZCZ2023 ) Corn Harvest Progress 🚜➡️🌽 ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░ 59% Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎 437,549 Metric Tons ⬇️ 29,055 Metric Tons week vs. last week ⬇️ 22,514 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year ⬇️ 370,24 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-year average Export Sales 16,176,285 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year) ⬆️ 2,753,396 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year Noteworthy News / Themes 🟢 Argentina is behind pace on Corn planting (12% complete) 🟢 US River levels have improved on the Mississippi river (barge freight down) 🟢 Mexico purchased 117,200 metric tons in a flash sales news announcement 🔴 The US still has a +2 billion bushel carryout 🔴 Corn failed to stay above $5.00 futures 🟢 Dry forecast in Argentina 🔴 Wet forecast in Brazil Corn Technicals Corn couldn't settle above $5.00 for too long given the ample expected carryout being priced into the market in the middle of harvest. Consider the sales that were sold above $5.00 as a gift to the farmers and we hope farmers prices some bushels. Outside of this, there really isn't much to say anymore about this market except that after 3 years of a bull market, we're finally getting back to reality and reality in the grain market is quiet. Watch the following levels for now👇 🟢 Current Upside Target: 5.00 🔴 Current Downside Targets: 4.74, 4.675
CBOT:ZCZ2023
by GrainStats
Corn Price Rollercoaster: A Technical BreakdownDive into the intricacies of corn price movements in this focused video analysis🎥. We'll tackle key support levels, observe the recent price plunge💥, and discuss what could be in store. Remember, I'm not a commodities expert, just a passionate observer👀 sharing my insights. Hop on this rollercoaster ride and let's decode the chart together! 🚀📊🤓 Got a take on these corn price moves? 🌽Drop your thoughts in the comments below. Let's get a conversation going!
COMEX:HG1!Short
by natron
2
Is Corn Ready To Pop?Last week, we were looking for a potential bottom in corn. Since then, we’ve mostly traded sideways to slightly higher. However, the end of this week brings a “triple-witching” event - the end of the month, the end of the fiscal quarter, and the quarterly grain stocks report all occur on Friday. In last quarter’s grain stocks report, the market sold off fairly sharply as corn stocks were reportedly 54% higher on a year-over-year basis. The contract’s resilience in defending the lows is very encouraging considering the positioning of managed funds. In the chart below, you can see that managed funds have amassed a substantial short position over the course of the last 6 weeks. As of last Friday’s CFTC Commitments of Traders report, managed funds held 319,079 short positions. Meanwhile, prices have maintained a very tight 15-20 cent trading range. As such, there is significant fund rebalancing in Friday’s session, it may induce a short-covering rally. What does that mean? In order to exit a short position, the contract holder will have to buy a contract. If there is substantial buying volume, it will press prices higher, and force short-positions to exit ultimately resulting in a rally. The question then becomes - how high can we go? Considering that the December corn contract was unable to close above 500 a single time in the month of August or September thus far, that may be an ambitious initial target. In order to retest 500, and ultimately our 502-506 ½ 3-star resistance pocket, we will have to surpass 3-star resistance between 489 and 491. If we manage to trade through 491, it could lay the foundation for December corn to surpass 500 once again. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Close to A Bottom in December Corn? After scoring a new contract low early in Tuesday’s trade, December corn futures managed to stage a late-session rally to close in positive territory. Moreover, the contract managed to close above trendline resistance that’s been in place dating back to June 20th. Price action on Wednesday served as a continuation of the late-session strength, with the contract closing 6 cents higher to close at 482 ¼ - marking a second consecutive close above trendline resistance. Prices have clung to the trendline very tightly over the last 8 trading sessions, and the previous two sessions are the first instances of prices closing above trendline resistance. So the question now becomes, are we close to a bottom in the December corn contract? Looking at price history and seasonal tendencies, we can see that the December corn contract typically bottoms out between the final week of September and into the first couple of weeks of October, before ultimately staging a moderate rally in late October. www.seasonalgo.com If we are indeed attempting to put in an intermediate bottom, we can expect a support/resistance flip. Meaning, that previous trendline resistance should now act as trendline support. In other words, if prices falter in the coming days, and test the trendline, we should likely see bulls come to defend the trendline. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCZ2023
by Blue_Line_Futures
1
CORN vs CRUDE Here's a quick view of CORN vs CRUDE which has been moving together for the past ten years with some variation. With CRUDE pushing highs here (Price Inflation fears rampant) and CORN pushing new lows (Food Deflation - no fears about falling corn prices in the news warning about falling inflation), it seems obvious to put up a chart showing how these two markets are set up at the moment. CORN and CRUDE have moved to an extreme and with CORN pointing lower I am seeing that there is a trade setting up. In the past, I was constructive on CORN and was looking for corn to catch UP to crude oil, but that didn't materialize like it did in the 1970's with a 4-fold advance. The monetary inflation we have had in both cycles would have supported much higher corn prices. However, here we are. Corn has fallen to lows going back more than a year, but the obvious story is that crude oil is making 52-week highs. Side note: You can also see that crude oil is down 7% from 2012 or 11 years ago. This is NOMINALLY as well. Inflation has been substantial for the last 11 years and may be 40% or 50%. Also note that corn is down 45% from 11 years ago "NOMINALLY". After inflation, corn prices are down 60% or more. So, this trade sets up within the near future and you could put both sides on: long corn, short crude. Or you can take sell signals only on all technical setups for crude on the daily chart. I would suggest do a little of both and have 5 different definitions of "technical trend" to follow. The simplest is "sell a 5-day new low" and use a stop over the 5-day high. Stay tuned! Tim West September 20, 2023 11:48AM EST
AMEX:CORNShort
by timwest
5
Is Corn Price on the Edge of a 25% Drop?In this idea, I am trying to read and forecast the behavior of the chart in the next 4.5 months . I do not follow corn production, harvest, demand, etc. Since April 2022 (its 9-year highs) has lost about 40% . Its relatively long-going bearish trend means that most of the drop likely has happened. Let's quickly study previous drops that lasted more than a year and erased more than 40% of the corn price. The last one started 11 years ago. It happened during world economic growth. The price lost more than 61% for 26 months of the trend. Another drop occurred during the GFC and lasted for 24 months. Corn lost 60.5% of its price. Important to note that the price reached its lowest point in December 2008 (in the sixth month after the drop started), then the price fluctuated and reached about the same level in September 2009. Considering the crisis and its trend low reached in 6 months, it is not the perfect example to compare with the current 2022-2023 corn price trend. Let's continue to delve into the past! 44% tumble was printed between April 2004 and November 2005, i.e. 19 months . Sending back 17 years ago, we can see a 64.4 % drop in 25 months . Here we are in 1983, the era of high dollar inflation (and not only). The Fed chair Volcker Jr. is fighting with inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY , and America is recovering from its 1979-1982 recession. The world economy is starting to recover from recession/slowdown too. Between late August 1983 and February 1987 ( 43 months ), corn prices fell by 61.9% . These data series are not enough to firmly generalize bearish trends . Besides, price movements in the past do not determine possible future patterns. We can gently conclude that a bearish trend in corn prices that lasts more than a year could last between 19 and 43 months and show a drop between 40 and 64.4%. In view of those facts and the performance of the corn daily prices in the last 1.5 months, I forecast several scenarios. In the first one, I expect that the price would break the 469-470 support zone and come to 400 cents per bushel until the end of September . Then I expect some correction lasting 3-5 weeks. And the realization of scenario #1.5 (continuation of scenario #1), we could see a breakout of 400 cents and move to 345 cents per bushel before the end of the year . That would be the low or almost the low of the current long-term bearish trend for maze price. Combined scenarios #1 and #1.5 would mean minus 25% from the current price and a drop of 57.5% since April 2022. There are two alternatives . In scenario #2 after reaching 400 cents, the price would return to 470 cents . In scenario #3 the current support zone would be a minimum of the trend for the next 4.5 months.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Nikita_Kalinin
SOYB- the soybean ETF moves on buying pressure LONGOn the 4H Chart, SOYB has moved above both tthe near and intermediate term POC lines of the respective volume profiles. Upward price volatility above the running mean on the relative volatility indicator. In confluence pric emoved above the mean basis band of the double Bollinger band. Fundamentally, supply-demand imbalances including the collapse of the Black Sea shipping deal as bad actor Russia continues to inflict chaos has a ripple effect throughout agricultural commodity markets. Soybean prices are not following the chaos and volatility of the general markets like AMEX and NASDAQ but rather they follow the beat of their own drum like seasonality crop yields shipping costs and others. This make an alternative to avoid going heavy into topping or sinking general markets. They allow diversification not unlike adding bonds to a portfolio when trying to weather the storm. Given the narrow trading range I will play this with some call options If you would like my idea of an excellent call option trade please leave a comment. See also my ideas on WEAT and CORN. se to expire after the harvest and into the planting in in Brazil.
AMEX:SOYBLong
by AwesomeAvani
WEAT- Wheat ETF at buy point LONGWEAT the Wheat EFT has been volatile of late due to the Bakc Sea shipping deal falling apart when Russia refused to renew it. Brazil has been trying to increase whet exports to pick up from the fall off of Ukrainian shipments to Africa and others. On the 4H chart, WEAT has fallen 15% from the double tops of July demonstrating the high volatility in what is typically a slow-moving commodity. WEAT is now 5% above the support trendline and about 14% below the horizontal resistance of those double tops. This is a favorable r:R ratio. I will go long here assuming there is now breakthrough in the near future with the resumption of the Black Sea grain deal to impact the supply-demand imbalance and destabilize the price rise. I will look into a call option trade as well.
AMEX:WEATLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
CORN wedge / triangle coiling for breakout LONGCORN on the daily chart since late June has fallen to the present level with a flat or slowly falling support line. I see this as a falling wedge or a flat bottom triangle slowly setting up a breakout whose upside could be 30% or more. Price had a nice green engulfing bar to finish a down week in the general markets. CORN does not follow the general market. It is following the collapse of the Black Sea grain deal and the increases in the Brazil export levels. Brazil is coming into its growing season now as it is in the southern hemisphere and spring approaches. The chart shows CORN inside the triangle/wedge and is approaching its acute corner. I see this as a long trade setup which I will take. If you want to trade this trade and am curious as to the specifics as I see them, leave a comment.
AMEX:CORNLong
by AwesomeAvani
3