USDA's corn, soy stocks figures fall below expectations Instant View: USDA's corn, soy stocks figures fall below expectations
Stock Markets1 hour ago (Sep 30, 2019 01:41PM ET)
CHICAGO (Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday reported domestic corn stocks as of Sept. 1 at 2.114 billion bushels, below the range of expectations in a Reuters analyst poll.
The USDA reported Sept. 1 soybean stocks at 913 million bushels, also below the range of analyst expectations. The government revised its estimate of the 2018 U.S. soybean harvest to 4.428 billion bushels, down from 4.544 billion previously.
In a separate report on small grains, the USDA trimmed its estimate of U.S. 2019 all-wheat production to 1.962 billion bushels, from 1.980 billion previously. The latest figure was slightly below an average of trade expectations.
Chicago Board of Trade corn futures jumped to a seven-week high after the release of the reports while soybean futures extended gains and wheat futures also firmed.
Highlights:
* USDA stocks, wheat crop report summary
* USDA pegs U.S. soy stocks below expectations
* U.S. small grains summary report - USDA
* USDA quarterly grain stocks report
* Trade estimates for U.S. grain stocks
* Trade estimates for 2019 U.S. wheat crop
* Trade estimates of 2018 U.S. soy crop
COMMENTS:
* Jim Gerlach, president of A/C Trading:
"These were the biggest (quarterly stocks) misses in history and not by a little, by a lot. Last year's crops were over-stated ... The cash market has been telling you for a long time that we didn't have a 2.4 billion-bushel corn carry-out."
* Bill Lapp, president of Advanced Economic Solutions:
"It was certainly a sharper reduction than the trade thought in the 2018 (soybean) crop. We saw the USDA reduce the final crop by 116 million bushels. That was the largest revision to the crop we've seen on Sept. 1. The fact that they missed it last year does not imply that this year's is going to be a big shock as well."
* Jack Scoville, vice president with Price Futures Group:
"The USDA is telling you that they overestimated the crop last year as much as anything. But at the end of the day, 2.1 billion bushels of corn and 910 million bushels of soybeans is still a lot of corn and soybeans out there."
* Joe Vaclavik, president of Standard Grain:
"The soybeans, that was a big deal on the balance sheet. Corn stocks number, too, was well below estimates. It's an aggressive cut, when most people thought we could actually see the USDA come in above the market expectations. This really caught the trade off-guard."
* Ted Seifried, chief market strategist, Zaner Ag Hedge:
"As far as corn is concerned, it was a bullish (stocks) number. This is a bit of a game-changer for the new crop. We'll be sitting at a friendlier level for ending stocks than what we were looking at on the September WASDE, when we get the October report."
* Bob Utterback, president of Utterback Marketing:
"The USDA comes out with a report saying we have 900-plus million bushels of soybeans, and that's bullish to this market. It's a sign of where we're at: We've gotten so used to these massive numbers (that) they've lost their shock value."
* Terry Reilly, senior analyst, Futures International:
"We were surprised that USDA didn't make an adjustment in U.S. corn production for 2018 because stocks came in much below expectations. It indicates demand for corn for feed was much better than expected."
* Craig Turner, commodities broker, Daniels Trading:
"Corn was the big surprise today. It's not wildly bullish, but it's not as bearish as everyone was worried about ... USDA today is taking away the 2 million bushels or so of corn that they said they found in the March report ... That has the market really focused now on yield: Will the (2019) harvested acres come down, as we're all expecting, and will the corn yield come down, even just a bit?"
CORN
Corn Futures ZC supply and demand forecast analysisSupply and Demand and any trading strategy can be quite overwhelming at times. When looking at the Corn Futures ZC weekly timeframe we can see there is a super strong weekly demand imbalance created around 3600. The strength of that demand imbalance is quite strong, we already have price reacting to it, we are expecting Corn Futures ZC to rally higher, there is a lot of room for Corn Futures to keep on moving to the upside.
You can use Corn Futures options or various ETFs to trade Corn Futures as well, you are not exclusively limited to the Corn Futures ticker. We don’t need any specific tools to learn how to trade Futures or Corn. You can pay attention to Corn fundamental analysis or even Corn Seasonal analysis, but all that will be a lot of hard work just to learn that fundamentals where good to sell Corn Futures but you did not know there was a pretty strong weekly demand imbalance in control and you should have gone long on Corn Futures ZC instead of shorts.
We can day trade and do intraday on Corn Futures as well. Supply and demand can be applied to any market and asset. Futures intraday and day trading is also possible by using simple rules that will help you locate brand new imbalances to trade. You can use other trading strategies to day trade futures and Corn futures. By knowing there is a very strong weekly demand imbalance in control, you can use other trading strategies to plan your intraday trades.
CORNUSD : LONGThe support and resistance levels are pivot bands and adaptive. Updates will be made about the idea.
You can use supports for profit realization and resistances for stoploss according to your leverage and risk .
NOTE: My ideas made only as a result of some predictions, do not agree completely. Just consider it as an idea between your opinions.
"Top and Bottom Analysis on Corn" by ThinkingAntsOk4H Chart Explanation:
- Price is on a Micro Ascending Channel.
- Bearish Divergence on MACD.
- If price breaks the Channel, it has potential to move down towards the Middle Support Zone first and, then, towards the Support Zone.
Weekly Vision:
Daily Vision:
Updates coming soon!
Corn Sep 24 SHORTM pattern
Looking at our daily continuous corn contract we will first use our indicators such as RSI, Stoch RSI, and
MACD to determine possible directional position.
Or RSI is heading down the slightest but has been at this high level three major times with no success to
break through and has gone flat. Our Stoch RSI shows slight less buying pressure with the buy RSI above the sell
RSI, therefore still showing slight, not strong but still bullish presence.
Our MACD shows overbought conditions with our buy and sell looking to cross for selling pressure.
(Only 1 real bearish signs with a reasonable half bullish indicator.)
A 10R chart will show a more favorable move to the downside which will break it through the latest low.
an upside move using this technique is unlikely due to previous candle strength after Sep 17 drop.
We are in lower lows and lower highs pattern and are testing the third resistance touch with little strength
to break out.
Corn to make a Head and Shoulders Pattern? Bullish Agriculture!I have been trading the agricultural commodities much more lately. On a long term approach (investing) I am bullish agricultural because I see food supplies diminishing due to weather. Just this Spring and Summer, crop yields did not produce as much as before and according to information on Martin Armstrong's blog, farmers planted crops late in the East due to a lingering winter. I expect these weather uncertainties to keep occurring.
Soil in the west is also diminishing. This can easily be remedied through things such as Zinc and other things like phosphate etc but don't want to get too scientific here.
What this means is that in the future we will likely transition to indoor/greenhouse farming.
Another bullish aspect is China. If you follow my work, I have said the only reason China would come to make a trade deal/truce is if their credit problem worsens, and if their food issue worsens. China has been hit hard with the swine flu and the army virus and the government is subsidizing food prices, especially pork. This could be a more short term/intermediate term catalyst.
Onto the charts. A good confluence for Corn. We hit a major support/flip zone at around the 3.45 zone.
You can see the downtrend with its lower highs and lower lows. They are well defined. Remember, by definition once a lower high swing is broken and we stop making new lower lows, the downtrend is now nullified. We either range or begin an uptrend.
We can see the lower high swing at 3.60 was broken and also retested. Buyers are coming on here.
On the daily we are now awaiting our first HIGHER LOW swing in a possible new uptrend which we could have here. This would make a head and shoulders pattern and the confirmed higher low swing once we break above the neckline at the 3.70 zone.
Overall this is looking good. We could see a move up to the 4.00 level.
Commodity and fianacial spreads. 17h40Hello
I am up at the moment after a few weeks. Patience. I will keep it for the time being but close just a bit.
I may have been on the wrong side somehow for this last month or so.
There is a book named - The encyclopedia of Commodity and financial spreads by Moore Research Center.
It is a good book and it can help you to fall asleep. 8-)
But i will use it as a reference somehow to open spreads. I recommend it . It talks about seasonality .
As this si a demo ac, i can not trade the futures contracts in 2019, 2020 etc. That s OK. I will use the cash market instead.
spread wheat vs corn 11:14 04-Sep-19.LOG
spread wheat vs corn 11:14 04-Sep-19
I spread trade WHEAT versus CORN.
I follow more or less -
Keith Schap – The Complete Guide to Spread Trading
The guy who spreads and makes a little every day is the one who walks away with
the big money.
–A veteran trader, quoted in Futures
Every time i enter a trade in WHEAT i enter a trade in CORN with the same amount of units.
Trade accordingly your account size.
The trades can last hours, days or weeks.
Patience and discipline and money management. I will not lose more than 5% of the equity.
I can trade every hour or other.
Intercommodity Spread
The Intercommodity Spread is a spread between two different commodities, but
in the same delivery month. Often this spread will set-up according to seasonality
or occasionally a harvest supply/demand picture.
The Corn-Wheat Spread
The Intercommodity Spread is our focus for today! Specifically, we will analyze
the merits of the Corn-Wheat Spread going into the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2011.
This is a trade that I have monitored since the 80’s. I believe that it was first
notable in the mid 60’s. The beauty of taking a classic trade and reviewing the trends
and history of the trade saves time in research and previous observations may even save
money on potential variances to watch for. In this particular spread, we note that July
may be a strong month for corn as the weather conditions, plantings acreage, export
numbers may still be unknown. The crop is still vulnerable until toward harvest which
is in the fall. On the other hand, the harvest for the soft red winter wheat may be in
July, allowing the market to regard the saturation of a harvested crop. One may look at
the months; March, July and September contracts for this particular spread trade and
select another, but this is the anatomy of the spread, not to be confused with a trade
recommendation. As a matter of fact, this spread may be reversed at another time of
the year. June may be a time frame to review the Wheat-Corn Spread. These grains are
both feed product and may also be affected by livestock production trends, global
supply-demand figures, weather conditions and basis for the farmer. The wheat is
typically a heavier protein cereal, while corn does not vary to the extreme. In modern
times patents on the seeds of varied grains has become big business. The USDA regulates
the delivery, grades and contract size regular for delivery. The seeds and
fertilizers must also endure disease and pests. There are Government Subsidy programs
as well in some cases to control the crops being planted. In recent times, Africa has
been know to lease land for crops to fulfill some of their required grain inventories
in countries such as China.
Technically, it is good to pull up a spread chart to monitor the merit of the potential
move. One may select their Indicators to best confirm an entry.
There is no audio in my videos.
This is a demo ac. I have a real ac with oanda.
spread wheat vs corn 08:09 03-Sep-19.LOGspread wheat vs corn 08:09 03-Sep-19
I spread trade WHEAT versus CORN.
I follow more or less -
Keith Schap – The Complete Guide to Spread Trading
The guy who spreads and makes a little every day is the one who walks away with
the big money.
–A veteran trader, quoted in Futures
Every time i enter a trade in WHEAT i enter a trade in CORN with the same amount of units.
Trade accordingly your account size.
The trades can last hours, days or weeks.
Patience and discipline and money management. I will not lose more than 5% of the equity.
I can trade every hour or other.
Intercommodity Spread
The Intercommodity Spread is a spread between two different commodities, but in the same delivery month. Often this spread will set-up according to seasonality or occasionally a harvest supply/demand picture.
The Corn-Wheat Spread
The Intercommodity Spread is our focus for today! Specifically, we will analyze
the merits of the Corn-Wheat Spread going into the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2011.
This is a trade that I have monitored since the 80’s. I believe that it was first
notable in the mid 60’s. The beauty of taking a classic trade and reviewing the trends and history of the trade saves time in research and previous observations may even save
money on potential variances to watch for. In this particular spread, we note that July may be a strong month for corn as the weather conditions, plantings acreage, export numbers may still be unknown. The crop is still vulnerable until toward harvest which is in the fall. On the other hand, the harvest for the soft red winter wheat may be in July, allowing the market to regard the saturation of a harvested crop. One may look at the months; March, July and September contracts for this particular spread trade and select another, but this is the anatomy of the spread, not to be confused with a trade recommendation. As a matter of fact, this spread may be reversed at another time of the year. June may be a time frame to review the Wheat-Corn Spread. These grains are both feed product and may also be affected by livestock production trends, global supply-demand figures, weather conditions and basis for the farmer. The wheat is typically a heavier protein cereal, while corn does not vary to the extreme. In modern times patents on the seeds of varied grains has become big business. The USDA regulates the delivery, grades and contract size regular for delivery. The seeds and fertilizers must also endure disease and pests. There are Government Subsidy programs as well in some cases to control the crops being planted. In recent times, Africa has
been know to lease land for crops to fulfill some of their required grain inventories in countries such as China.
Technically, it is good to pull up a spread chart to monitor the merit of the potential move. One may select their Indicators to best confirm an entry.
There is no audio in my videos.
This is a demo ac. I have a real ac with oanda.
BTC LONGHello everyone!
This is my current take on the beast that is BTC.
We have broken through all major resistances on our way back up to the 10k region. Coming to a halt around 10.4k as expected.
We now have the 200 and fibs backing us around 10.2 and 10k, if btc decides to drop a bit to cool off the indicators, i expect no more downside than 10k before the bulls take back the game and move on to 11.1-11.6 region.
Meaning, this past month would have been a great time to accumulate more corn under 10k before the next major run upwards.
If downwards momentum would confirm itself, than i expect a first test of the weekly 21, sitting at around 9.1 currently, with all this upwards power MA's have snaked around alot, so keep an eye on them.
Good luck to you all, have a good one!
spread wheat vs corn 16:19 30-Aug-19We have had a big move today in Wheat.
-2.37% vs -0.33% for corn.
I am down 16.000 4 at the moment on this spread.
Again this is a demo ac.
The tactic is to load both contracts in a spread as i go along and then offload from time to time. this is not for fainthearted. I am aware i can blow the ac, so be careful.
.LOG
spread wheat vs corn 16:19 30-Aug-19
I spread trade WHEAT versus CORN.
I follow more or less -
Keith Schap – The Complete Guide to Spread Trading
The guy who spreads and makes a little every day is the one who walks away with
the big money.
–A veteran trader, quoted in Futures
Every time i enter a trade in WHEAT i enter a trade in CORN with the same amount of units.
Trade accordingly your account size.
The trades can last hours, days or weeks.
Patience and discipline and money management. I will not lose more than 5% of the equity.
I can trade every hour or other.
Intercommodity Spread
The Intercommodity Spread is a spread between two different commodities, but in the same delivery month. Often this spread will set-up according to seasonality or occasionally a harvest supply/demand picture.
The Corn-Wheat Spread
The Intercommodity Spread is our focus for today! Specifically, we will analyze
the merits of the Corn-Wheat Spread going into the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2011.
This is a trade that I have monitored since the 80’s. I believe that it was first
notable in the mid 60’s. The beauty of taking a classic trade and reviewing the trends
and history of the trade saves time in research and previous observations may even save
money on potential variances to watch for. In this particular spread, we note that July
may be a strong month for corn as the weather conditions, plantings acreage, export numbers may still be unknown. The crop is still vulnerable until toward harvest which is in the fall. On the other hand, the harvest for the soft red winter wheat may be in July, allowing the market to regard the saturation of a harvested crop. One may look at the months; March, July and September contracts for this particular spread trade and select another, but this is the anatomy of the spread, not to be confused with a trade recommendation. As a matter of fact, this spread may be reversed at another time of the year. June may be a time frame to review the Wheat-Corn Spread. These grains are both feed product and may also be affected by livestock production trends, global supply-demand figures, weather conditions and basis for the farmer. The wheat is typically a heavier protein cereal, while corn does not vary to the extreme. In modern times patents on the seeds of varied grains has become big business. The USDA regulates the delivery, grades and contract size regular for delivery. The seeds and
fertilizers must also endure disease and pests. There are Government Subsidy programs
as well in some cases to control the crops being planted. In recent times, Africa has
been know to lease land for crops to fulfill some of their required grain inventories
in countries such as China.
Technically, it is good to pull up a spread chart to monitor the merit of the potential
move. One may select their Indicators to best confirm an entry.
There is no audio in my videos.
This is a demo ac. I have a real ac with oanda.
"Top and Bottom Analysis on Corn" by ThinkingAntsOk4 Hour Chart Explanation:
- Price started its down move on the Resistance Zone.
- Now, it is on a Bearish Corrective Structure.
- It has potential to move down towards the Middle Support Zone and, then, the Support Zone indicated on the chart.
Check out our last predictions on CORN (they were really precise)!!!
Weekly Analysis:
Daily Analysis:
Updates coming soon!
spread wheat vs corn 07:49 29-Aug-19. ADDING SOME MORE..LOG
spread wheat vs corn 07:49 29-Aug-19
I spread trade WHEAT versus CORN.
I follow more or less -
Keith Schap – The Complete Guide to Spread Trading
The guy who spreads and makes a little every day is the one who walks away with
the big money.
–A veteran trader, quoted in Futures
Every time i enter a trade in WHEAT i enter a trade in CORN with the same amount of units.
Trade accordingly your account size.
The trades can last hours, days or weeks.
Patience and discipline and money management. I will not lose more than 5% of the equity.
I can trade every hour or other.
Intercommodity Spread
The Intercommodity Spread is a spread between two different commodities, but in the same delivery month. Often this spread will set-up according to seasonality or occasionally a harvest supply/demand picture.
The Corn-Wheat Spread
The Intercommodity Spread is our focus for today! Specifically, we will analyze
the merits of the Corn-Wheat Spread going into the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2011.
This is a trade that I have monitored since the 80’s. I believe that it was first
notable in the mid 60’s. The beauty of taking a classic trade and reviewing the trends
and history of the trade saves time in research and previous observations may even save
money on potential variances to watch for. In this particular spread, we note that July
may be a strong month for corn as the weather conditions, plantings acreage, export numbers may still be unknown. The crop is still vulnerable until toward harvest which is in the fall. On the other hand, the harvest for the soft red winter wheat may be in July, allowing the market to regard the saturation of a harvested crop. One may look at the months; March, July and September contracts for this particular spread trade and select another, but this is the anatomy of the spread, not to be confused with a trade recommendation. As a matter of fact, this spread may be reversed at another time of the year. June may be a time frame to review the Wheat-Corn Spread. These grains are both feed product and may also be affected by livestock production trends, global supply-demand figures, weather conditions and basis for the farmer. The wheat is typically a heavier protein cereal, while corn does not vary to the extreme. In modern times patents on the seeds of varied grains has become big business. The USDA regulates the delivery, grades and contract size regular for delivery. The seeds and
fertilizers must also endure disease and pests. There are Government Subsidy programs
as well in some cases to control the crops being planted. In recent times, Africa has
been know to lease land for crops to fulfill some of their required grain inventories
in countries such as China.
Technically, it is good to pull up a spread chart to monitor the merit of the potential
move. One may select their Indicators to best confirm an entry.
There is no audio in my videos.
This is a demo ac. I have a real ac with oanda.
spread wheat vs corn 15:25 28-Aug-19. new tactic and strategy.Added some more today.
New tactic. I will buy and sell as we go along. The strategy is to be almost all in but i will open end close positions as i seem fit. It is not quite clear but if you follow the videos, it will make sense. Thank you.
Soybeans Fake out?Like what I am seeing here on Soybeans. We have a fake out indicated by the long wick at a very big support zone which can also be seen on the longer term charts.
This interests me because of the long downtrend with multiple waves we have been in. You can also say we have created a double top too. Waiting for a break of the lower high swing and also a flip zone at 8.51. Will provide more context and confluence for out trade.
Many will be inclined to stay away due to the US-China trade war. However, China NEEDS food. They have had their pig population decimated due to the flu and the government is subsidizing pork prices. They do have a food problem and even though tariffs may be implemented, China requires food. Brazil and Russia may be the agricultural winners here.
spread wheat vs corn 07:40 28-Aug-19 ADDING SOME MORE.LOG
spread wheat vs corn 07:40 28-Aug-19
I spread trade WHEAT versus CORN.
I follow more or less -
Keith Schap – The Complete Guide to Spread Trading
The guy who spreads and makes a little every day is the one who walks away with
the big money.
–A veteran trader, quoted in Futures
Every time i enter a trade in WHEAT i enter a trade in CORN with the same amount of units.
Trade accordingly your account size.
The trades can last hours, days or weeks.
Patience and discipline and money management. I will not lose more than 5% of the equity.
I can trade every hour or other.
Intercommodity Spread
The Intercommodity Spread is a spread between two different commodities, but in the same delivery month. Often this spread will set-up according to seasonality or occasionally a harvest supply/demand picture.
The Corn-Wheat Spread
The Intercommodity Spread is our focus for today! Specifically, we will analyze
the merits of the Corn-Wheat Spread going into the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2011.
This is a trade that I have monitored since the 80’s. I believe that it was first
notable in the mid 60’s. The beauty of taking a classic trade and reviewing the trends
and history of the trade saves time in research and previous observations may even save
money on potential variances to watch for. In this particular spread, we note that July
may be a strong month for corn as the weather conditions, plantings acreage, export numbers may still be unknown. The crop is still vulnerable until toward harvest which is in the fall. On the other hand, the harvest for the soft red winter wheat may be in July, allowing the market to regard the saturation of a harvested crop. One may look at the months; March, July and September contracts for this particular spread trade and select another, but this is the anatomy of the spread, not to be confused with a trade recommendation. As a matter of fact, this spread may be reversed at another time of the year. June may be a time frame to review the Wheat-Corn Spread. These grains are both feed product and may also be affected by livestock production trends, global supply-demand figures, weather conditions and basis for the farmer. The wheat is typically a heavier protein cereal, while corn does not vary to the extreme. In modern times patents on the seeds of varied grains has become big business. The USDA regulates the delivery, grades and contract size regular for delivery. The seeds and
fertilizers must also endure disease and pests. There are Government Subsidy programs
as well in some cases to control the crops being planted. In recent times, Africa has
been know to lease land for crops to fulfill some of their required grain inventories
in countries such as China.
Technically, it is good to pull up a spread chart to monitor the merit of the potential
move. One may select their Indicators to best confirm an entry.
There is no audio in my videos.
This is a demo ac. I have a real ac with oanda.
spread wheat vs corn 10:45 27-Aug-19. ADDED SOME MORE .LOG
spread wheat vs corn 10:45 27-Aug-19
I spread trade WHEAT versus CORN.
I follow more or less -
Keith Schap – The Complete Guide to Spread Trading
The guy who spreads and makes a little every day is the one who walks away with
the big money.
–A veteran trader, quoted in Futures
Every time i enter a trade in WHEAT i enter a trade in CORN with the same amount of units.
Trade accordingly your account size.
The trades can last hours, days or weeks.
Patience and discipline and money management. I will not lose more than 5% of the equity.
I can trade every hour or other.
Intercommodity Spread
The Intercommodity Spread is a spread between two different commodities, but in the same delivery month. Often this spread will set-up according to seasonality or occasionally a harvest supply/demand picture.
The Corn-Wheat Spread
The Intercommodity Spread is our focus for today! Specifically, we will analyze
the merits of the Corn-Wheat Spread going into the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2011.
This is a trade that I have monitored since the 80’s. I believe that it was first
notable in the mid 60’s. The beauty of taking a classic trade and reviewing the trends
and history of the trade saves time in research and previous observations may even save
money on potential variances to watch for. In this particular spread, we note that July
may be a strong month for corn as the weather conditions, plantings acreage, export numbers may still be unknown. The crop is still vulnerable until toward harvest which is in the fall. On the other hand, the harvest for the soft red winter wheat may be in July, allowing the market to regard the saturation of a harvested crop. One may look at the months; March, July and September contracts for this particular spread trade and select another, but this is the anatomy of the spread, not to be confused with a trade recommendation. As a matter of fact, this spread may be reversed at another time of the year. June may be a time frame to review the Wheat-Corn Spread. These grains are both feed product and may also be affected by livestock production trends, global supply-demand figures, weather conditions and basis for the farmer. The wheat is typically a heavier protein cereal, while corn does not vary to the extreme. In modern times patents on the seeds of varied grains has become big business. The USDA regulates the delivery, grades and contract size regular for delivery. The seeds and
fertilizers must also endure disease and pests. There are Government Subsidy programs
as well in some cases to control the crops being planted. In recent times, Africa has
been know to lease land for crops to fulfill some of their required grain inventories
in countries such as China.
Technically, it is good to pull up a spread chart to monitor the merit of the potential
move. One may select their Indicators to best confirm an entry.
There is no audio in my videos.
This is a demo ac. I have a real ac with oanda.
spread wheat vs corn 07:51 27-Aug-19.LOG
I spread trade WHEAT versus CORN.
I follow more or less -
Keith Schap – The Complete Guide to Spread Trading
The guy who spreads and makes a little every day is the one who walks away with
the big money.
–A veteran trader, quoted in Futures
Every time i enter a trade in WHEAT i enter a trade in CORN with the same amount of units.
Trade accordingly your account size.
The trades can last hours, days or weeks.
Patience and discipline and money management. I will not lose more than 5% of the equity.
I can trade every hour or other.
Intercommodity Spread
The Intercommodity Spread is a spread between two different commodities, but in the same delivery month. Often this spread will set-up according to seasonality or occasionally a harvest supply/demand picture.
The Corn-Wheat Spread
The Intercommodity Spread is our focus for today! Specifically, we will analyze
the merits of the Corn-Wheat Spread going into the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2011.
This is a trade that I have monitored since the 80’s. I believe that it was first
notable in the mid 60’s. The beauty of taking a classic trade and reviewing the trends
and history of the trade saves time in research and previous observations may even save
money on potential variances to watch for. In this particular spread, we note that July
may be a strong month for corn as the weather conditions, plantings acreage, export numbers may still be unknown. The crop is still vulnerable until toward harvest which is in the fall. On the other hand, the harvest for the soft red winter wheat may be in July, allowing the market to regard the saturation of a harvested crop. One may look at the months; March, July and September contracts for this particular spread trade and select another, but this is the anatomy of the spread, not to be confused with a trade recommendation. As a matter of fact, this spread may be reversed at another time of the year. June may be a time frame to review the Wheat-Corn Spread. These grains are both feed product and may also be affected by livestock production trends, global supply-demand figures, weather conditions and basis for the farmer. The wheat is typically a heavier protein cereal, while corn does not vary to the extreme. In modern times patents on the seeds of varied grains has become big business. The USDA regulates the delivery, grades and contract size regular for delivery. The seeds and
fertilizers must also endure disease and pests. There are Government Subsidy programs
as well in some cases to control the crops being planted. In recent times, Africa has
been know to lease land for crops to fulfill some of their required grain inventories
in countries such as China.
Technically, it is good to pull up a spread chart to monitor the merit of the potential
move. One may select their Indicators to best confirm an entry.
There is no audio in my videos.
This is a demo ac. I have a real ac with oanda.
spread wheat vs corn 18:48 25-Aug-19In this particular spread, we note that July may be a strong month for corn as the weather conditions, plantings acreage, export numbers may still be unknown. The crop is still vulnerable until toward harvest which is in the fall. On the other hand, the harvest for the soft red winter wheat may be in July, allowing the market to regard the saturation of a harvested crop.