CBoT corn still no green light for a long playCorn:
Price basically has been moving sideways during the past 9 sessions although it made a fierce spike to the downside during yesterday's sessions after which price recovered back to its level of apparent comfort of the past 2 weeks. We are anticipating a solid bottom for price and have done so for some weeks now but we currently still feel uncertain to call for same bottom. We want to have one more week of 'wait-and-see' attitude on this one after which we will try to establish a renewed judgement. It could be that we will have to conclude and call for a bottom during the coming trading week in which case we will come with an update.
CORN
CORN bottom?corn sell off has decelerated, and has been in bottom consolidation... can we get a upwards move soon?
#Corn #cbot: Predictive/Forecasting Model Eyes 202'6 #fibonacciFriends,
A rare coverage of the ag-commodity, but here it is - Corn (P) expected to remain under bearish strain, with a confluence of background technical tools pointing down towards the 244'4 to 202'6 range, against a foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model eyeing bearish targets as low as 202'6.
TECHNICAL TOOLS: Fibonacci, Shark and 5-0 Patterns
An overlay of Fibonacci matrices in Roman numbers with contraction and extension values is shown below:
Fib-I = 0.886 points to a Scott Carney's Shark targe, as follows:
Note that the Shark pattern originates at Point-zero and completes at Point-C, being the acolyte precursor of the 5-0 pattern (see below).
Note also that Point-C of the Shark is Fibonacci-dependent upon TWO values, 0.886 as in the case of this posted chart, but also 1.131, where this tiny extension is often encountered as the inscribed pattern in the same price field, as follows:
Note also, as mentioned above, that the acolyte of the Scott Carney's Shark pattern is the 5-0 patten, which is a reactionary conclusion of the Shark, typically retracing fifty percent of the Shark's last swing, hence the five-zero, or simply 5-0 pattern, as follows:
Corn CBoT further developing as anticipatedCorn:
Price traded further up and reached our first target which is not a reason for us to square the position but rather to trail our intra-day stop up to a level where we optimize the profitability of the position just in case that the picture radically reverses. We would like to see a bit more impulse of the move up during the coming week in which case we will probably move our target 2 up a bit as well. For now we are comfortable as we are and we see no reason to start fumbling this chart.
CBoT corn long play around the cornerCorn:
Price is following our preferred path rather well and the decline is now very major. The reversal is imminent. It could be that the bottom has been on the chart last week at 329 but a bit of overshoot to the 320 level is possible as well. We stay tuned for a long play entry which will probably be offered to us during the coming week or week ahead and with a 30% rally towards the end of the year.
Corn - Bottom in place or expected very soonCorn is tracing out a major complex correction in wave B. This correction began way back in late September 2014 and has unfolded as a zig-zag from the 2014 low at 318 to 443 as wave W and has been followed a zig-zag decline in wave X from 443 to a low currently seen at 319. The X-wave could be complete and if this is the case, then a break above short term important resistance at 335 soon will be seen for a long term rally back to at least 443 and likely even higher towards 519.
As long as short term important resistance at 335 is able to protect the upside, we must allow for a final decline closer to 310, but it's only a question of time before the low is in place and a new rally begins
Corn - Bottoming for a rally towards at least 440Corn has either bottomed at 319.4 or needs one more decline closer to 310.00 before a long term bottom is seen for a rally towards at least 440.00 and possibly even higher towards 519.00.
The first strong indication of the bottom being in place will be a break above the resistance-line seen near 329.00 while a break above 335.00 confirms the bottom for the rally to at least 440.00.
Building Good Case to go Long CornRecent run up in corn prices have resulted in a quick sell off to return to equilibrium prices. Price is on its 3 push down. Trading volume remains extremely below average and the fractal acceleration has turned positive and consequently, the fractal momentum is slowing and turning positive. We are looking for a positive increase in price followed by a jump in trading volume to go long.
One could buy a long future or buy a call option or sell a put option or any combination thereof.
Futures trading involves risk and is not suited for every investor.
CBoT corn long playCorn:
Price indeed traded further down which has caused a massive drawdown on longs that were take at the buy-stop level. Price drew a very long bottom tail on the chart for Friday's candle with a (less than perfect) 'hammer' as result.
Longs that have been stopped out now have a renewed opportunity to try one more long play but need to put stops tight as we want to see the reversal to happen during the first 2 or 3 sessions of the week.
Possible Reversal in CornWe have an indecision candle here as indicated on the chart. Fractal acceleration is turning positive and the fractal momentum is slowing down as expected. Price should follow.
Futures trading involves significant financial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor.
Elliott Wave Analysis: CORN In A Temporary ConsolidationOn the 4H chart of CORN we are observing a possible three wave set-back taking place, that could ideally reach 390-400 region before turning again lower in black wave (2). That been said, on the alternate scenario black wave (2) could be already completed and more downside could be here early.
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CBoT corn is a long playCorn:
Price has traded up to our buy stop level after which it made a corrective move back down again. Price should not trade below the latest low of 346 as it will then likely trade further down to the 325 region which would be some 13% below the 375 buying stop zone which would be by far too much of a loss on the price. For now we consider this market to be a buy but we want to see price trade up to the 385 level next week. The upward potential on this chart is 25-30% from here.
Good Long OppCorn went through a quick run up and an even faster fall back down. Will try to find equilibrium now.
One could trade a long futures contract or a long call option.
Trading futures involves serious financial risks and are not suitable for all investors. Please seek competent trading advisors before placing any trades.
CBoT corn long play in the making.Corn:
Price had its additional push down and probably completed its move down after losing some 23% from its high on June 17 which is only 3 weeks ago. The price more or less reached the targeted buying region during the past week which was a bit earlier than what we were anticipating one week ago and the big question now is whether it is time to entertain a long play from here. The weekly chart (not attached/displayed) is showing a classic 'Hammer' which could come right out of the textbooks for TA traders. A 'Hammer' is a fairly reliable bode that the end of the downtrend is imminent but needs confirmation. In any case we can conclude that the move down is very mature at least.
A further move up on Monday/Tuesday and notably to the 375 level would actually confirm that a reverse is there and that we will trade higher levels from here. One more modest push down to the 345 should not be excluded and is a buy region as well with stops at 335 or so.
Elliott Wave Analysis: CORN In A Temporary PullbackOn the 1H chart of Corn, we are observing an idea of a contra trend movement taking place, after a five wave drop had unfolded from 440'6 highs. We are talking about the A-B-C correction, which could now be already in the final stages of its completion, as we see price trading in the final leg C. This commodity could still reach 409-412 region, before turning lower into a new five wave sequence.
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@ewforecast
Corn CBoT hit all stopsCorn:
Price was severely hit during Tuesday's session which teaches us again why stops are so important. We were enjoying a nice ride up that started during first half of May and price is now traded down back to exact that level. This is why one should never forget to gradually take profits from the table and to maintain disciplined stops on basis of both end-of-day and intra-day. This price lost a whopping 14% during last week and stops were hit. We will let this market now go and find some basis for one or two weeks and will look at it later again. We see no use of trying to understand a market that moves 10% or more in just a week's time.
Corn CBoT maintaining long positionCorn:
Price made a very strong move to the upside last Friday and posted a new high for the contract. If a price posts a new high it is usually a sign that it wants to trade even higher (and the other way around) although there is no guarantee for that. More significant is that price closed at/near the HOD (high of day) which is a bode for a higher opening for the next session with a high probability of a follow through.
All together there is nothing much new for us to see on this chart. We are enjoying the ride that started during first half of May and we keep trailing out target and, more important, our stop loss level. Positions will need to be rolled over soon (preferably this week) and traders need to be alert for slippage.
Corn CBoTCorn:
Nothing much new on the chart that would make us change our views. The weekly chart (not displayed) is showing a very long topping tail that could indicate the bulls are running out of air but we would need to see a confirmation of that after the next weekly candle only.
Price almost reached our 2nd target at 450 during Friday's session and we have trailed same target up to 460 now. We might decide to keep trailing up same target while downsizing the position and thus locking in profits because taking profit won't make us any poorer. We will definitely keep trailing up the stop.