RunningAlpha Upgrades Commodity Markets Update to Priority ListRunningAlpha dot com Capital Markets Intelligence High Priority Update for Monday, May 2nd, 2016
Although $39 and $36.50 remains baseline intermediate to long-term support for Light Crude Oil ( in reference to June Contract Pricing ), the recent advance upwards has opened the door for a further short covering rally upwards to $62 to $65, and perhaps $74 to $76 levels if on a spike. Bullish window for buying on dips extends into at least June period -- this also applies to Brent Crude. Russian Stock Market ( $RSX ) looks bullish during this period. Oil and Gas Drilling stocks will likely continue higher on balance -- particularly a core position in stocks like $PBR.A would be sensible, which should also benefit from a continued bullish run in Brazilian Equities ( which I expect Brazilian equities should trend higher into the summer, and again later in the fall to close out the year much higher ). Among many other equities in Latin America, $ARCO and $KOF also have a strong bullish bias with sentiment conviction windows extending into foreseeable future.
Other Commodity Markets showing very significant sentiment strength going forward are in the Agricultural complex -- Soybean, particularly Soybean Meal $SOYB, Rice, Corn $CORN, Cotton $BAL and Coffee ( $JO is ETF -- when above $18.02 and especially when trading above above $19.00, then $27 is interim target ), and even wheat to some degree. Equities that would benefit from a rise in these commodity markets should have a tail-wind. Silver and Gold stocks, which RunningAlpha.com has been bullish on for a few months now, still shows signs of strength on pullbacks. Sourced from premium sentiment conviction list on RunningAlpha dot com
CORN
Corn long playCorn:
Price made a 13% swing up during April and corrected down rather impulsively during the 2 sessions of Apr 21 & 22 in order to correct its overbought status. On very short term the key level is 382.50 which is the low of last Thursday Apr 28. If this level breaks during the first half of the week we anticipate a bit further decline of price that could go as far as the 370/365 mark which would be an excellent target level to anticipate a long play.
From there we expect price to reverse in order to rally further up throughout the summer to 450 levels or higher than that. We feel more comfortable with our 450 target for the mid-term than with the possible swing down next week to 370.
Possible short set up on Corn May contractThere is a possibly short play opportunity developing on the Corn MAY16 contract that, if valid, should materialize some time between March 15 and 18.
Price has been trading within an ascending channel that started March 3 and price is currently at the higher boundaries of same channel.
There is a longer term and rather wide descending price channel that started on October 7 and of which price tested the upper line during Feb 2-4 and during Feb 18-23. Price is now heading to same upper boundary again and should arrive there by Mar 15-16, provided that price continues to follow its current short term ascending channel. The 50DMA is clustering with same upper channel boundary and should add to resistance on price. Doing nothing yet but keeping an eye on it for next week.
Corn Long Term IdeaCorn, shows them in his past aggressiveness very agitated and violent movements, and possibly in future also this is his behavior, reacion, added to it, it is clearly a cone shape, taking into whether the price, and giving its characteristic shape, plus you can see the possible formation of a huge formation type "W", which appears to have a huge reacion future.
Did we just hit the bottom? Corn has been diving over the last 3 years since it's peak in 2012.
Beside small correction move in 2014, it was pretty much a nose dive that cut corn value in more than half.
Since October 2014, Corn has been bouncing around the 22-23$ support zone, which is also the 127 extension for the first part of corn's decline (Aug 2012- Jan 2014).
The second time corn bounced from the 22$ it also broke out of a minor weekly downtrend line.
Last week, Corn spiked below 22$ and closed above it, creating a weekly false break and a weekly Outside Bar that could be a trigger for a bullish entry for those who seek to trade this bullish triple bottom setup. The bullish divergence we see in the RSI and the Stochastic being oversold can support this bullish scenario.
With stop loss below 21.5$ the initial target level will be the 50 SMA line near 25$ (assuming it'll break above the Fast SMA line - the first confirmation signal)
If the price will close above 25$, it could provide a longer term bullish signal for a deeper correction move in corn prices.
NZDUSD: Very close to a market bottomI placed an overlay of the corn and gold charts over the NZDUSD line chart with weekly range boxes.
Time at mode has given me a target in the weekly, which is very close to being achieved.
I suspect we will see the completion of a terminal falling wedge next week, offering a great buying opportunity in this pair.
I'll patiently wait for confirmation here, but I already suspect the bottom will come very soon.
Price might copy the corn rallies, which seem to be leading gold and crude oil, regarding dollar strength.
Should be an interesting long.
Have a nice weekend,
Ivan.