The squeeze is comingAbove 998 and the squeeze will have shorts scrambling. A close above this area and we will be looking for triggers long.
CORN
ZS upward "C" wave to come (???)Soybean has been a tough market for those traders seeking volatility as it has been on a “wait-and-see” mode for a couple of month now. I do not expect any major movement on the short/mid run; however, I do see a possibility to “widen” the current trading range.
The wave counting above suggests that a B wave would be completed (or nearly completed) and a possible upward C wave would be on the radar screen. For those (unlike me) seeking short-term opportunities it may be a good commodity to keep track on.
I am still holding my long position with stops on a range around 920, although I confess the weekly chart does not look that bullish. In fact, the MACD divergence is killing my sleep lately.
See my comments on ZC at:
We may see a “Pop” in Corn (???)(Forgive the terrible joke, but I couldn’t hold myself).
The 50% retracement on Corn suggests that a minor correction would be over making possible an “a-b-c” counting thus getting ready to resume the upward trend. However, at this point in time, it would be wise to keep an alternate count in sight as this correction could easily (and most likely, in my opinion) extend to the 0.618 fibo. I say this, as most indicators are either bearish or neutral on the short/mid run. Ichimoku, for instance, is “cloudy”.
Unlike soybeans (that has been on sideways for days now), corn has provided some interesting ups and downs for day-traders. For the long-term however I am still bullish and will keep holding my long position as long as prices stay within the 4-350 trading range, although I strongly suggest a stop-loss at levels close to 330 for money management matters.
Just for the records, I am a position trader (i.e. no day-trading).
Correction near the 50% Fib and inside a support zoneAfter breaking down two uptrend lines, $CORN is back the 25.5$ zone (now support).
The levels between 25.5$ and 25$ is support zone to monitor that comes with the 50% Fibonacci level.
Yesterday's strong selling could mean that the price will continue to dive to test the bottom of the trading zone. In that case, if we will see a reversal near the 50% level, a stop loss below the 61.8 Fib could be the right thing to do for those who want to try to jump back on the minor, new uptrend.
$ZC_F $CORN reclaims support with tailwindCorn futures regained support today and have a tailwind. Out performing $ZS_F $SOYB #beans so far Q4 2014 and now Q1 2015. See attached charts.
Chow down on Corn Soybeans broke major support so we are looking at Corn to see if this pattern breaks with it. We will use smaller time frames for a trigger.
Corn (ZC) At Long-Term SupportZC has been sold off stronger than most commodities, and its weekly Stochastics is at an extreme low reading. Note how it together with weekly MACD are beginning to turn up. The daily chart including today's action illustrates this bottoming action more clearly, but I've profiled this weekly chart to point out how ZC is currently beneath a long term down channel support line, which I don't expect to persist for long with ZC trading at an important support zone. Although the weekly RSI appears to still turn down, keep in mind the lag introduced by weekly chart signals. Visit goo.gl for today's technical analysis on $NG_F, $ZC_F, $USDJPY, $VIX_F, $NQ_F, $NFLX, $TSLA, $ES_F, $USDX, $EURUSD, $EURCHF, $CT_F
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KIOR Beat downKIOR has a black eye that looks so bad, it seems to have hit every piece of furniture and stairs on its way down to the basement. Management has send the distress call that they need money now to keep the doors open. Most people would write the company off and let it bleed out. But.... There seems to be a little bit of gold buried deep down inside KIOR.
Lets face it. No one likes Ethanol. Even thou this form of ethanol doesnt harm a single shred of corn. Cellulose Ethanol hasn't been well supported by the government and Oil hates it. However, the EPA has been taking a very very long time in reformulating the RFS and we think there may be some relief in store for companies like KIOR. If it can hang on of course.
The only other thing KIOR has going for it is its PATENTS. www.faqs.org
As you can see the company has a lot of them! Enough to change the valuation dynamics of the company.
This is an all or nothing one way bet. A long here puts all capital at risk of instant bankruptcy death. Of course, should the stock rally, the pay of could be huge.
Speculative long only.
No Chicken dinner today!ZC is starting to feel choppy in this area so we are taking off our long position at a small loss. Like we mentioned, this could chop until harvest starts. We will keep her on the watch list. NEXT!
Long CornThe recent consolidation could be a great setup for a rebound to the 38.2% retracement.
At these levels we are also at a major support line from June 2010 and Feb 2009 support.
Favorite patternThis is one of our favorite patterns. It usually suckers people into believing we will see more downside. The larger players will usually dip below the wedge and get new shorts stuck and then squeeze them. (similar to Corn recently) If they break it to the upside we should see a quick move due to weak shorts being stopped. This is high on our watch list.
Corn acting well. Corn is still acting well. We were able to take off half our position this AM. We didn't quite hit our first target at the gap fill but captured some decent profits. IF price closes inside the descending wedge we will be out for a small loss and will look for another set up. Stay tuned!
Corn working wellCorn is working well. As an FYI this (ZC1!) is the continuous contract and is priced a little different than the DEC contract. However, the patterns are still the same and they are both working well. We are still long and looking for the gap fill (on continuous contract). We could see some sideways to down movement over the next few days before we start to see another leg up. Trade well!
Head Fake HarryAnd there she is! After the crop report the boys decided to give a little head fake and run the stops of the weak longs. Now if we get above the 362.2 we could see a nice squeeze would could pop us. We are long and will be holding for the gap fill. Understand we are not fools at OFT... we can read. We understand that the agency is calling for a record 14 billion bushels of Corn which could weigh on an already weak market. This is why we weigh our risk first. We feel this move serves us well. Only time will tell. That's trading. Stay tuned and trade well.
Buying CornIts a good moment to buy corn, but prefer to wait to crosses the trendline.
target: 480.0
Timber!Corn has fallen to far to quickly. We are now back to the original buy areas. If you are still holding from the buy point this will be a good lesson. It is important to take some profits on the way and trail stops. We missed this trade but for some it was very profitable. If price jumps to our sell zone we will look for a short signal.
