Fundamentals favour soybean, sugar and wheatAgricultural commodities, led by grains rose sharply in 2022. The two main catalysts for the upside in price were the Russia-Ukraine war alongside other supply challenges. There has been a number of cascading events around these two catalysts involving government interventions globally as food prices soared.
However, from mid-October the renewal of the Black Sea grain initiative for six months, helped quell concerns of access to Black Sea ports. We have seen prices decline since then, but from a high level.
It’s worth noting that grain exports from Ukraine under the Black Sea Grain Initiative dropped to 3.1mn tons in January compared to 3.6mn tons in December 2022 owing to a slowdown in inspections1. In 2023, the supply demand balance appears to be favouring soybeans, wheat, and sugar.
Extreme drought in Argentina lends a tailwind to soybean prices
In the case of soybean, a gloomier supply outlook has been a key tailwind for prices in 2023. Argentina, the world’s third largest soybean producer, is expected to see a weaker crop at 35.5mn tons owing to persistent drought and high temperatures. The Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates the crop at just 36mn tons after the USDA previously predicted a crop of 45.5mn tons.
However, both estimates are still well above the assessments of local experts. The Rosario Grain Exchange, which asserts the drought is the worst in 60 years, lowered its soybean forecast to 34.5mn tons. Thus, future downward revisions by USDA are quite likely which should help soybeans continue to find support.
Net speculative positioning in soybean futures has increased 124% since the start of October underscoring the positive sentiment owing to the tighter supply outlook.
Tighter supply on the global sugar market
Sugar prices are trading at a six year high. Investors remain concerned over the prospects of the sugar crop in India, the world’s second largest sugar exporter. Sugar cane processing in Maharashtra, the most important growing State, could end 45 to 60 days earlier than last year owing to heavy rainfall that has reduced the availability of sugar cane.
In 2022, sugar production reached a record 13.7mn tons, which allowed India to export a record high 11.2mn tons of sugar.2 The Indian Sugar mills Association (ISMA) revised its estimate for domestic sugar production lower from 36.5mn tons to 34mn tons for the 2022/23 season2. This is raising concerns that the Indian government will not approve any further sugar exports for the current marketing year owing to the recent reports of weak production.
This does suggest a tighter global sugar market particularly as we are in the midst of Brazil’s (the world’s largest sugar producer) sugarcane off-season. Although Brazil produces sugar all year round, during this period (December to March) few mills continue to crush. Supply from Thailand, the world’s third largest sugar producer is unlikely to fill the gap left behind by the smaller Indian harvest particularly during Brazil’s off-crop.
The front end of the sugar futures curve has been in backwardation over the past 3 months and currently provides a roll yield of 7.2% highlighting the tightness in the sugar market.
Wheat most exposed to geopolitical tensions
Wheat prices have under most pressure from the improved supply prospects from the Black Sea Region. However total grain exports have declined by 29% to 27.7mn tons in the ongoing season (from 1 July 2022 to 31 January 2023), with wheat exports down 42% over the prior year.3 The ongoing escalation in the Russia Ukraine war continue to threaten supply from the breadbasket of Europe.
The US Department of Agriculture is forecasting a noticeably smaller Russian wheat crop of 91 million tons for 2022 in sharp contrast to Russia’s State Statistics Agency estimate at a record high of 104.4mn tons. According to the consultant firm SovEcon, the key growing region in the south of Russia has seen only around 40-80% of its normal rainfall over the past three months. The forecasts of this year’s crop in Russia are less optimistic. In the 2022/23 season, a record crop in Russia enabled ample supply of the wheat markets, despite a considerably lower crop in war-torn Ukraine in particular, thereby dampening prices.
Lower supply is likely in the coming season, however, not only from the top wheat producers – Russia and the US – but also from Ukraine on account of the ongoing military conflict. The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) anticipates a crop volume of 16 million tons. According to the Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry, 20 million tons of wheat were harvested last year. Before the war, the crop had totalled around 30 million tons.
Net speculative positioning in wheat futures is currently more than 2-standard deviations below its five-year average, underscoring the extreme bearishness on the wheat market.
Amidst the ongoing conflict and lower wheat supply from Russia and Ukraine, wheat prices appear positioned for a rebound from current levels.
Sources
1 Bloomberg as of 31 January 2023
2 Indian Sugar Mills Association as of 30 December 2022
3 Bloomberg as of 31 December 2022
CORN
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop
Type: Bearish Drop
Resistance: 688.50
Pivot: 673.00
Support: 648.25
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bearish due to the current price crossing below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. To add confluence to this bias, price is also within a descending channel. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly retest the pivot at 673.00 where the overlap resistance and 50% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the support at 648.25, where the previous swing low is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back up to retest the resistance at 688.50 where the recent high is located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Corn Potential For Bullish RiseLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a possible pullback buy entry at 656.00, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 644.00, where the recent swing low is. Take profit will be at 669.75, where the 161.8% Fibonacci extension line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop
Type: Bearish Drop
Resistance: 688.50
Pivot: 673.00
Support: 648.25
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bearish due to the current price crossing below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the support at 648.25, where the previous swing low is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back up to retest the resistance at 688.50 where the recent high is located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 706.50
Pivot: 6681.00
Support: 673.00
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 706.50, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the support at 673.00 where the recent low is located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish Rise
Resistance: 706.50
Pivot: 688.75
Support: 661.25
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 706.50, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the support at 661.25 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line and recent low are located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop
Type: Bearish Drop
Resistance: 671.75
Pivot: 660.00
Support: 636.00
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the support at 636.00, where the previous swing low is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back up to retest the pivot at 660.00 where the 50% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ZC1! Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell stop entry at 648.50, to catch the bearish momentum. Stop loss will be placed at 664.00, where the recent high is. Take profit will be at 635.00, where the previous swing low is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Agricultural Commodities - When the Big Elephant Left the RoomCBOT: CBOT:ZW1! , CBOT:ZS1! , CBOT:ZC1! , CME:HE1!
This is the second report in the series “Year of the Rabbit: Short-tailed Trading”.
US inflation began to pick up in March 2021 and rose rapidly throughout the year. Federal Reserve officials told Americans not to worry. It was due to supply chain issues and comparisons to low baseline numbers in 2020 when economies were shut down.
After CPI rose to 7.0% in December, the Fed voted to keep the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% on January 26th, 2022. Inflation would be “transitory”. Just ignore the big elephant in the room and it would go away. That’s the prevailing thinking at the time.
Then a military conflict took place in the former Soviet bloc. The war shock and ensuing impact from embargo of Russian products pushed the prices of commodities, from gold, nickel, crude oil, natural gas, to winter wheat and many others to record high. On March 16th, the Fed raised rate by 25 basis points with a change of heart. This baby step turned into the most intense battle against inflation with seven consecutive rate hikes.
“Strong Dollar, Weak Commodities” and “High Rate, Low Price” became the dominant theme of the global commodities market. Many commodities gave up early gains and priced at or below prewar levels. US headline inflation rate peaked at 9.1% in June and Core CPI (which excludes food and energy) topped in September. They have come down ever since.
2022 was all about geopolitical crises and central bank actions. Along with investor sentiment, they dominated market trends. Economic fundamentals have been left largely unnoticed.
Outlook for 2023
In the new year, these macro factors would likely stay in the back burners. When the big elephant left the room, fundamentals in each market would once again drive commodities prices. Commodities markets might be less volatile compared to last year.
One notable exception is China. The government ended its strict Zero-Covid policies on December 7th. From January 8th, Chinese tourists would be hitting popular travel destinations around the world, after nearly three-year absence. Normalization of daily life and business activity will not only boost China’s economy, but also lend needed support to the global economy which many believe to be on the verge of a recession.
However, surges in Covid cases raise the risk of new and more deadly virus. By one estimate, up to one billion people are already Covid-positive in China. This is one-eighth of the world population! For a thorough analysis of China’s re-opening and its impact, please check out my previous report, The Rise and Fall of Chinese Yuan.
This concludes a high-level overview before we move to discuss what all these mean for agricultural commodities in 2023.
Fundamental Supply and Demand Built on Higher Baseline
While the big elephant has left, it still casts a shadow in the room. Inflation is sticky. Rate increases have lasting impacts long after the hikes are over.
This is evident in food costs. Inflation pushed the cost of producing, processing, distributing, and selling agricultural products to a high level. November CPI for food items was 10.6%, much higher than the headline CPI of 7.1%. The cost for food at home grew 12% annually, indicating a rapid rise in grocery prices. There are no rate cuts nor deflation in sight. This means that food costs will continue to go up, although at a slower pace.
Wheat, corn, and soybean have different supply and demand fundamentals. But CBOT futures price charts show similar patterns for all three in the past three years. As I pointed out earlier, inflation, geopolitical crisis and Fed rate hikes took turns driving commodities markets across the board. Economic fundamentals got set aside.
Volatility is a friend for options traders. Last June, I introduced a Long Strangle strategy on CBOT Wheat (ZC). At the time, wheat price was swung widely by actions in the battlefield. A surprise agreement that allowed Ukrainian grain cargoes to pass the Russia-control Black Sea sent price sharply down, making our put options 400% more valuable.
This year, we will focus on more subtle changes in traditional supply and demand factors, such as planted acreage, weather, yield, and export.
Spread Trade Opportunities
Inflation and rate hikes hit different parts of the agricultural markets differently. For the same commodities, the spread between farm-level price and retail grocery price has become wider due to cost increase.
The commodities used as input in food product and those for output respond to different fundamentals. When inflation and interest rate are moving fast, the traditional price relationship may be temporally dislocated, opening opportunities for spread trades.
Take the example of the Lean Hog market: Last August, USDA Daily Hog and Pork Report showed that benchmark Iowa Carcass Base Price averaged $128/cwt.
Hog Crush Margin represents production profit by hog farmers. It is defined by the value of lean hog (LH) less the cost of weaned pig (WP), corn (C) and soybean meal (SBM).
On August 2nd, I presented the trade idea “Short the Hog Margin If You Expect Lower Pork Price”. It’s a profitable trade. On January 6th, USDA benchmark carcass is quoted at $74, a whopping 42% decline in five months.
For this spread trade, I used a Hog Feeding Spread to replicate the economic hog crush margin with CME lean hog (HE), CBOT Corn (ZC) and CBOT Soybean Meal (ZM). The size of relevant futures contracts: HE, 40000 lbs.; ZC, 5000 bushels; and ZM, 100 short tons. A typical hog feeding spread is 7:3:1, which may be expressed as:
Hog Feeding Spread = 7 x HE – 3 x ZC – 1 x ZM
As I expect hog margin to shrink, I short the spread: Sell hog, buy corn and meal.
I will continue to monitor the agricultural commodities space in the new year. Whenever spreads or other trade opportunities arise, I will present the new ideas on TradingView.
Happy trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop
Type: Bearish Drop
Resistance: 671.75
Pivot: 660.00
Support: 636.00
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the support at 636.00, where the previous swing low is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back up to retest the pivot at 660.00 where the 50% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ZC1! Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a possible sell entry at 659.25, where the 50% Fibonacci line and the liquidity hotspots are located. Stop loss will be at 671.75, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 638.25, where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
ZC1! Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a pullback sell entry at 659.25, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 671.75, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 635.00, where the previous swing low is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish Rise
Resistance: 698.50
Pivot: 651.25
Support: 638.25
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 698.50, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the pivot at 651.25 where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and recent low are located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ZC1! Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 671.75, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 659.25, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 698.25, where the previous swing highs are located.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish Rise
Resistance: 700.00
Pivot: 651.25
Support: 638.25
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 700.00, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the pivot at 651.25 where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and recent low are located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Corn Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 671.75, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 659.25, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 698.25, where the previous swing highs are located.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Price Action Analysis of Corn Futuresas we can see the apparent divergence was shown between April 2021 and April 2022.
followed by a drop-down below 0.236 Fibonacci level.
the price is still moving in a trading range which makes it hard to predict his next move.
Break bellow MA 209 with Big Volume signal a short entry.
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish Rise
Resistance: 700.00
Pivot: 651.25
Support: 638.25
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 700.00, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the pivot at 651.25 where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and recent low are located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ZC1! Potential for Bullish Continuation Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 671.75, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 659.25, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 698.25, where the previous swing highs are located.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish Rise
Resistance: 684.25
Pivot: 651.25
Support: 638.25
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 684.25, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the pivot at 651.25 where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and recent low are located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ZC1! Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a possible pullback buy entry at 660.00, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 644.00, where the previous swing low is. Take profit will be at 680.00, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish Rise
Resistance: 673.75
Pivot: 651.25
Support: 638.25
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 673.75, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to break the pivot at 651.25 where the previous swing low is before heading towards the support at 638.25, where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion line and recent low are located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.