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CORN

Corn Futures Continue to Consolidate Fundamental Spotlight: Weekly Export Inspections Corn: 661,658 metric tons; in line with analysts' estimates Soybeans: 575,220 metric tons; in line with analysts' estimates Wheat: 667,577 metric tons; above analysts' estimates. Crop Progress Corn: 20% harvested, this was within the range of estimates, 7% behind last year's pace Soybeans: 22% harvested; this is a faster pace than expectations, but 9% behind last year's pace. A Look at the Outside Markets The dollar is continuing to retreat, trading back to one of the September 23rd breakout point near 111. If the dollar continues to retreat it may offer some support to commodities. Oil is approaching yesterday's high and equity markets are continuing to rally, trading roughly 2% higher this morning. Technical Snapshot: Corn December corn futures were able to gain some ground to start the week, but the overall performance was still less than impressive considering the risk-on trade in other markets. The market is right in our pivot pocket this morning, we've outlined that as 678-682. A close above here could spark a move back towards resistance, we see that coming in from 698-700. We have been in and remain in the camp that believes there will be short term trading opportunities for participants on both sides. A break above resistance or below support would likely change that theses as we could see the market take more of a direction, other than sideways. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 698-700**, 725 3/4-728 1/4**** Pivot: 678-682 Support: 665-668 1/2***, 647 1/4-650 1/4**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Title: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 691.0 Pivot: 661.40 Support: 675.60 Preferred Case: The H4 price is in a downward trend. Price breached and closed below the first resistance level at 691.00. Price could potentially reverse back down to the pivot line and 20% retracement level at 661.40. Alternative scenario: If the bullish momentum continues, price will move to 688.0, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is located. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Title: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 691.0 Pivot: 661.40 Support: 675.60 Preferred Case: The overall price on the H4 is bullish. Furthermore, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating that the market is bullish. Price attempted but failed to breach the first resistance level at 691.00. Price responded with a massive rejection wick. Price could potentially reverse back down to the first support level at 675.6, which also happens to be the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line. Alternative scenario: If bullish momentum continues, expect price to move towards 705.6, which contains the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion line and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum Title: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum Type: Bullish Momentum Resistance: 6.900 Pivot: 667.50 Support: 6.310 Preferred Case: On the H4, the overall price is bearish. In addition, the price is below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bear market. Price attempted but failed to break through the Pivot at 667.500 overnight. Price could potentially reverse up to the first resistance level at 6.900, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located. Alternative scenario: If bearish momentum persists, expect price to continue falling towards the first support level at 6.310, where the larger 78.6% Fibonacci line is located. Fundamentals: There is no major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum Title: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum Type: Bullish Momentum Resistance: 680.00 Pivot: 667.50 Support: 661.75 Preferred Case: On the H4, the overall price is bearish. In addition, the price is below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bear market. Price has broken through the Pivot at 667.4, which corresponds to the previous swing low. Price also rebounded from the first support and rose above the first pivot. Price may maintain its short-term bullish momentum and move towards the first resistance level at 680.0, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located. Alternative scenario: The price could reverse and head back down to the first support level at 661.75, where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion is located. Fundamsentals: There is no major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Title: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 6.900 Pivot: 667.50 Support: 6.310 Preferred Case: Overall price is bearish on the H4. To add on confluence, the price is also below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bear market. Price has broken through the 1st resistance at 6.900 where the 161.8% and 127.2% Fibonacci extension lines are. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the 1st support at 6.310 where the larger 78.6% Fibonacci line lies. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may go back up through the 1st resistance and head towards the pivot at 7.630 Fundamentals: No major news
NYMEX_MINI:QG1!Short
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 679.25 Pivot: 667.50 Support: 660.00 Preferred Case: Overall price is bearish on the H4 with a retail double top formed. Price is also below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bear market. Price has broken through and closed the pivot at 667.4 where the previous swing low is. Expecting price to continue this bearish momentum and head towards the 1st support at 660.0 where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may reflect off the pivot back up towards the 1st resistance Fundamentals: No major news
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Title: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 679.25 Pivot: 667.50 Support: 660.00 Preferred Case: Overall price is bearish on the H4 with a retail double top formed. Price has broken through the 1st resistance at 679.25 where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Price could possibly retrace back up towards 677.6 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and 1st resistance lie before heading down, breaking the pivot at 667.5 and then moving towards 1st support at 660.00 where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may continue heading down towards the pivot before bouncing back up towards the 1st resistance. Fundamentals: No major news
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 698.50 Pivot: 667.50 Support: 679.25 Preferred Case: Price has reflected off the first support level at 698.50 on the H4 and appears to be descending again to test it. watch for the price to cross the first support level and go toward the pivot at 667.50, which is where the previous swing low lies. The chart appears to be constructing a double top with equal highs along the first resistance, which adds another confluence to this bias. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may bounce off the first support and continue moving back up toward the first resistance. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type: Bullish Rise Resistance: 710.4 Pivot: 699.4 Support: 679.25 Preferred Case: On the H4, the price has came back down to test the 1st support at 679.25 and has reflected off it. Price has also went back above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish bias. Looking for price to continue bullish to hit the first resistance at 710.4 where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion lies. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price could drop down below the first support and head towards the second support at 668.25, where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement line and previous swing low lies. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
Corn Futures (ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Corn Futures (ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type: Bullish Rise Resistance: 710.4 Pivot: 699.4 Support: 679.25 Preferred Case: On the H4, the price has bounced off the second support at 668.25 which is at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement line, and went above the first support at 679.25. Price has also gone above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish bias. Looking for price to continue bullish to hit the first resistance at 710.4 where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion lies. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price could bounce back down from the pivot structure and drop to first support to 679.25, where the 50% Fibonacci retracement line sits Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
ZC Potential for bearish momentumType : Bearish Drop Resistance :681.75 Pivot: 688.00 Support : 668.25 Preferred Case: On the H4, with the price reflecting off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line and the price being inside ichimoku cloud, we have a neutral bias on corn. price could back to 668.25 where the previous swing low is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price might go back up towards the pivot line at 688.00 Fundamentals: Top farming and food firms could lose up to a quarter of their value by 2030 if they do not adapt to new government policies and consumer behavior tied to climate change, United Nations-affiliated campaigners said in a new report. (Farm and food investors face $150 bln loss on climate change)
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybeans ZS - Lagging the Pack, but Ready to GoThis is a call I wanted to make yesterday, but didn't have time. With the time I had, there was a choice between this and a Nasdaq NS call and made the Nasdaq call: Nasdaq NQ - 8 Days & 1,700 Points But in fairness, I did pick up November options during yesterday's session, so at least I can say that much for myself, since this has some vibes of hindsight based on today's action. Regardless, Soybeans gives strong cause to believe bullish action is imminent, based on the monthly candles: What this tells us that our June high formed a double top with the '12 all-time high. But most critically, it formed a lower high double top, which means that MMs are likely to seek this level to crush bear skulls, and it's just a question of when. The post-resistance top was really a long gap fill and we've also had three months of consolidation. As everyone who's traded with real money knows, picking the direction and the price is not the hardest, but instead, the timing is the very hardest, and most critical, thing. And in terms of timing, the weekly gives us good cause to believe we're ready to go. We see that late July featured a gap up, which has been filled in and heavily consolidated over the course of five weeks: And thusly, there is significantly reduced reason to believe that Soybeans are set to seek new lows instead of new highs. And indeed, on the daily, what has manifested is a string of higher lows, culminating in this morning's gundown of the 1,400 level A gundown that looks exceptionally turtle soup on the 1H, albeit retrospectively since it already ripped. But note that the rip occurred at 9:00 just before NYSE opens, significant because there are ETFs like SOYB that get caught gap up. More importantly, maybe consider not trying to short the pop. Instead, going long on a pullback could be quite good. And so, in magnifying the timeframe down to the 4H, I discovered that targeting boxes that appeared correct on the wider time frame were a little too shallow on the lower time frames. Thusly, I have generated a "revised" targeting box. However, like I said, time is the harder consideration. I feel ZS will get there, but who knows when? In the meantime, a rundown of the 1,500 level, which corresponds with those August-July relative equal highs around ~1,485 is very realistic. Everyone knows the global food supply is in trouble because of all the drought . Whether it's corn, wheat, soy, or whatever. And while you can certainly expect a new all time high to be made, it's really a question of when. Months like December, January, and February when everything is both trapped in winter, a new calendar year, and people are struggling to pay incredibly high natural gas/electricity bills across the world resulting from problems governments have created since the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine this year, may be the more likely time target for 2,000 point Soybeans.
CBOT:ZS1!
by LordWrymouth
3
Corn FUTURES (ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance : 686'6 Pivot: 673'6 Support : 654'4 Preferred Case: On the H4, with there's a bearish divergence of price and MACD, and there's potential double top pattern, we have a bearish bias that price may drop from the pivot at 673'6, where the 61.8% fibonacci projection is to the take profit at 654'4, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and neckline of "double top" pattern. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 688'6 where the swing high is. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Wheat Futures - ZW - Like Snakes in a CanSnakes in a can is not a great metaphor for food. Nonetheless, that's the pattern that seems to be developing on wheat futures. All know that the world's food crops are not in good shape. Massive drought tends to kill plants, which ruins harvests, which causes some obvious downside effects in economies. Each year in recent years, we're running out of supply until the next year's harvest arrives, which replenishes the silos, which means that you won't really feel the pain of a bad harvest until the following year. Yay for 2022, not so yay for 2023. 2024 is a dark horizon. On the monthly chart, Wheat ZW swept out the long-term 2008 high in March on the back of the Russian Federation invading Ukraine: It only swept the high, however, and has since corrected, hard. It's specifically notable that despite the massive dump, wheat did not take out the January pivot in either July, or in August's very gentle stop raid. In fact, wheat has spent the better part of two months ranging in this accumulation area, which is bad news for bears and good news for bulls. It's also notable that corn has already had a significant breakout that took out a previous month's high: Corn Futures ZC1 - Spooling Like a Turbo (Too bad I had my compass on backwards for that one and picked that it would go down before it would go up, when it just went up in a straight line. But hey, at least I drew my box in the right place -_-) Contracts of similar category tend to move in the same direction, but at different times, of each other. To be frank, I believe that this means wheat is all but guaranteed to set all new highs. However, it's a question of when. In reality, price is the easy part and time is the hard part. When it comes to "when," at least right now, you can tell from the pattern post-stop raid that we're ready to go somewhere, and that somewhere is probably up. In terms of between now and the end of September, I think that the most realistic targets are July's equal highs at ~845 and July's monthly high at ~940. I believe that a major commodities supercycle lies ahead. Something that will really be fun to trade but painful for reality. But I also believe that a big shakeout is imminent before we go there. For wheat, based on how its traded, this may mean it provides something of a shelter or a safe haven, running bull while many other things correct and dump. As the world gets crazy, keep in mind that no matter how the media and the government howls its narrative, the human race is still ultimately on a planet that orbits a sun and is positioned inside of a very, very, very immense Universe. The more immense the Universe, the less possible it is that we are either the only lives that exist or the highest lives that exist. That is how statistics and probabilities works. And I am not talking about such and such idea of aliens. I am talking about the idea of "Gods," which I do not regard as limited to the Marxist-smeared religious dogma of a giant old white man wearing a robe in the sky judging you when you swear or drink. Instead, to speak of Gods is to simply have a rational understanding about the structure of the Cosmos, its multitudinous dimensions, and those higher lives with power that occupy those dimensions and oversee this human stage during the end of a Cosmic Era. What I am getting at with the above, is that no matter how "chaotic" things get, the chaos is actually a manifest form of order. Things are happening for a reason, are planned both above and below in advance, and no matter how the Earth capsizes and the Sky falls, the tribulation provides an opportunity. The Divine is ultimately in control of where we are headed, and for good people, there is hope. So make sure you maintain your kindness, your conscience, your sense of justice, and your rationality. Do your best, and don't lose heart. In history, humanity's catastrophes, such as famines, have always had a target, and the target has almost never been people who are virtuous and are walking on the traditional path.
CBOT:ZW1!
by LordWrymouth
2
Corn Futures ZC1 - Spooling Like a TurboBecause virtually the whole world is suffering from massive drought this summer, many crops are in bad shape. This is true with the U.S. cotton crop and it's also true with the U.S. corn crop, which according to USDA reports, barely half of is in good or excellent condition as of last week. This is significant because the U.S. is the largest global producer of both, and by a huge margin. This gives good cause to believe that a pump is on the horizon, but when, and how easily will it arrive? The good news is for latecomers is that it seems as if the Ukraine panic pump and dump from April+ bottomed out in July, based on recent price action. "The second mouse gets the cheese." There's a big gap on corn and wheat remaining from the June doom candle, which should transpire as a range that gets eaten into as we head into later September and October. Winter may very well be new all time highs, because the world and humanity is in a lot of trouble. The environment is not in good shape, but to understand what this really means, you have to throw away the leftist-socialist-establishment "carbon" narratives, because those things are not only distractions, but they exist as a Communist Party pretext to take away your Freedom of Movement. But just look at the lack of water and functioning ecosystem and ask yourself how long the happy is going to remain in North America. The situation in Europe is already very dangerous. Regardless, with the way price action has traded this month, it seems likely that corn futures has a good shot of breaking July's high before the end of the month. But it also looks like it may not run in a straight line up and take care of that business on Monday or Tuesday. If you get a retrace into the 597 range, it seems there's a functional trade. However, it's entirely possible that August fails to break July's high. But if you can get out over 640 all the same before the month closes, you'll have done pretty well. As for the rest of that gap above, I don't think we see that until the next commodities supercycle starts, likely beginning to ramp in late September-October. Today is like a turbocharger. They all take a bit to spool. But once they do, it's really fun. Unless you're the one standing in front of the Ferrari.
CBOT:ZC1!
by LordWrymouth
4
Why Rice Prices Determine the Direction of Interest Rates?Recently, I received questions asking my opinion on their borrowing cost, if they should go for fixed or float rates. We somehow know there is inflation, but not exactly sure how long it will last and how bad it will get. Because higher inflation leads to higher interest rates. While I cannot advise them as I do not have a banking license to do so. However, I can point them to the commodity markets, I hope by doing so, it can help them to understand and read into the direction of interest rates with greater clarity. Background on edible commodities: Rice is a staple in the diets of more than half of the world’s population, especially in Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East. Annual production of milled rice tops 480 million metric tons, which makes it the third most-produced grain in the world after corn and wheat. An increase in rice prices or edible commodities, it will really add pressure to the existing global inflationary pressure. Hardship will be more intense especially compare to other commodities like crude oil. In short, people can still live with some inconvenience without cars, but not without food. Therefore, when food prices become much more expensive, the central banks immediate and urgent measures is to counter it by rising interest rates. Content: . Why edible commodities determine the direction of interest rates? . Technical studies . How to hedge or buy them? Rice Market: 91 Metric Tons $0.005 = US$10 Example - $0.01 = US$20 $18.00 = 1800 x US$20 = US$18,000 From $18 to $19 = US$10,000 If you are trading this market for the short-term, do remember to use live data than delay ones. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CBOT:ZR1!Education
by konhow