CORN LongCORN has broken out of a bullish descending wedge pattern to the upside, entered a bearish rising wedge, broken down and back-tested the previous resistance level before bouncing back. There are positive divergences on the charts which suggest a much longer up trend in play. These positive divergences can also be seen on the weekly and monthly charts of CORN which also firm up the thesis of a new long term uptrend. When measuring the height of the wedge pattern and adding it to the breakout point, the anticipated price coincides with a former support/resistance level.
Cornfutures
Corn Weather Market Losing Steam?
In the ZCZ2019 chart, I see the potential for another leg up however I believe it could retreat down to test the current support line. On 4/30 I bought corn around $3.80 feeling the low had been put in, after a few discomforting days I was correct. Due to delayed plantings and not optimal weather looking forward the market exploded up. I exited this position around the $4.40 range and enjoyed the nice profit, skeptical the market could not bust through the $4.54 price level.
Now that the market has broken through that level of $4.54 I am not adding to a Spec long position, while there is certainly upside potential left, I feel the market will struggle in the coming days and weeks to continue the great run it has displayed over the past weeks. That does not mean I am ready to initiate a short position, I feel the upside potential of 8.5% to the upside is still greater than a potential selloff.
I will be keeping a close eye on the market in the coming days and weeks if we do continue to rise an additional 8.5% and reach $5.00 +/- I will be preparing to enter the market as a bear. I do not forsee a freefall taking place but do see the potential for significant price reductions if we reach these levels. For the time being, I remain patient, sitting on my hands.
**Educational purposes only**
Corn, the Weather Drives the RallyFollowing the disappointment of the failed talks between the United States and China about two weeks ago, grains, particularly corn and soybeans, have fallen. The corn price dropped to a new low of the year (Monday, May 13). Since that time, the corn has started a steep rise due to the known meteorological problems.
If we take the chart of the futures contract delivery July, we can see how strong has been the rise over the last seven days, and that has led the price to break the trendline resistance of the bearish channel, within which corn was moving from July 2018.
When these situations happen, when an external factor (in this case the climate, the heavy rains) influences so strongly the price of a commodity, the best thing to do is to wait for the effect ends, and for the price to start a "return" towards a normal value.
Yes, because if we exclude the weather, the situation for corn (and all other grains) is not improved, on the contrary...
This rally of the price is a real breath of fresh air for American corn farmers. The collapse of the price has brought to their knees many of them. The trade disputes have already caused a $6.3 billion loss to corn farmers in 2018, and 2019 could be even worse.
It does not mean the rally has to stop right here. The forecast promises more rain the next ten days, and that will give new fuel to the strong bullish phase, but do keep in mind that the rallies, particularly short-covering rallies, can end just as abruptly as they began.
So, I repeat, we have to be patient, wait for the climate effect ends, and only then will we be able to open bearish positions, taking advantage of a return of the price to a value more consistent with the moment we are living.
A fundamental rule in trading is to never anticipate market entry. Remember that it is always better to take a small part of a big movement, rather than a large part of a little movement.
So never be impatient to click on buy or sell.
Previous Target hit. 1D Channel Down continuation. Short.The TP = 372.20 has been hit and the 1D Channel Down (RSI = 37.956, Highs/Lows = -0.2679, B/BP = -1.4820) continues to deploy on a standard manner. Next TP = 337.20 which is the November 13, 2017 bottom and a very likely candidate for a rebound. If it breaks then 320.40 is next.
Corn Preparing to Turn?Corn has been decelerating for quite a few months now and is currently rejecting key resistance (monthly 200ema/200ma + monthly fibs) with a high-test.
Price action seems to be hinting at a turn from here in the near future down to $302.00, the September '09 low that sent us into an enormous rally to form the '12 highest high. I'm watching for a rejection of this 09' level over the next year or two that should align with the bottom in wheat. I expect a HUGE rally following that bottom to retest $746.00
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Thanks!!
Corn setting a base for up trendThe monthly cornusd chart looks like it is setting up a base for a new uptrend to begin.
October '15 new resistance->support line at 3.502. Price has closed and held above this line for past 4 months.
+DI up and ADX is rising though still below 0
TRIX divergin with price since 2014 with 3 points of focus
Stoch coming off oversold and moving up
Weekly
3.644 last key resistance->support with price currently sitting on it.
Though below 20, +DI and ADX beginning to trend up. The TRIX near 0 but remains positive
Daily
In all 3 time frames, ADX and DMI are not that strong but positive. TRIX put in a sup->res line at 3.648. Price is currently spinning on this point and will be key to hold if price is to move higher from here.
Corn Futures Breaking Year Long Resistance LevelI believe this is my first post about Corn Futures, so let's see how this goes! Daily charts so that corn futures are trading within a channel, with resistance being the 50 MA and the support line being the 200 MA and the price support level of 356. Corn Futures shot up today above both the 50 MA and the resistance portion of the channel in which they were trading.
That price resistance level of 370 goes back into the start of 2016 and has carried with force except for last April when Corn Futures shot past it and ballooned up to 440.
The reason I like using TA is that you can easily see the human nature of the markets. Being irrational beings, we influence markets without even thinking. Most of the TA that I do is based on the overlying assumption that it is a self fulfilling prophecy, where it matters only because other investors and traders think it matters. Regardless, there could be a play here.
Am I suggesting that Corn Futures will rise into the 400s again? No. I have no idea where corn futures will go. I'm trying to give myself the best probability of being on the right side of the trend.
The setup I would use to play this bullish trade would be to enter right above the 50 MA breakout. I would put my stop at 365.4, which is just below the 50 MA. To me, this makes sense because any move lower than that would discredit my bullish hypothesis.
With the stop loss at 365.4 I would begin to take profits at the 390 level. This gives me a risk reward ratio of 3:1.
All the best,
RC
Update on Corn Futures: retrace, then next leg upThis is a follow up on this forecast:
Still bullish on Corn, after a surge up price retraced.
At this moment Corn is still in that retrace, but expect the next leg up soon.
Forecast Corn Futures: Move up 385This is an update on a earlier forecast on corn futures.
The analysis remains the same: expect a move up to 385, then a retrace.
Expect Corn to run up in the coming weeksExpect Corn (Futures) to run up between January and March 2017.
CORN, MONTHLY CHART, BUY, LONG-TERM INVESTMENT PLAN(11-DEC-2016)Long-Term Investment Opportunity:
Corn price is trading down since year 2013 and
the current price is near 8-year history low.
It is good to buy at the MARKET CYCLE LOW and
hold for long term.
Here are few ways to accumulate your long term
investment in Corn:
1. Buy now with little % as the price is already
quite low
2. Buy with more % when the price further drop
to 8-year history low level
3. Buy more % when price drop to 10-year
history low