Gold: Where Will Gold Go After Trumb's Tested Positive For CovidThis is an educational + analytic content that will teach why and how to enter a trade
Make sure you watch the price action closely in each analysis as this is a very important part of our method
Disclaimer : this analysis can change at anytime without notice and it is only for the purpose of assisting traders to make independent investments decisions
Coronavirus (COVID-19)
GILD Watch for Breakout here! TRUMP PUMP! Gild on high watch with Trump receiving REMDISIVIR treatment and Trump reporting he is feeling better and expected to be discharged and return soon. Which means we could see green market this week. GILD is at my support zone and we have a gap up to fill at $69 If we can hold above $61.62 we could see a move back up to fill that gap. Good opportunity to long here!
The bubble is gonna burst, Covid fear returningWith US fed saying they will be waiting for fiscal stimulus before providing anymore monetary stimulus. The tech bubble is gonna burst now and with the return of high Covid infections numbers, the fear is going to be coming into market imo
Not financial advice.
I KNOW WE POSTED A LONG BUT!!!I know we posted a long. On here. Free channel milked the long then took a short. Closed for Friday NFP.
Looking now we have potentially a short position coming up.
Trump got covid, but shared he is doing well, so reduces the chance of uncertainty which then some fundamentals point towards gold going down just like the charts.
Remember just because we post something here. Does not mean we are taking the trade. The market can change very quickly. So we can be long 1 min then short the next. x
Trump vs Covid19 vs ElectionsTrump covid case was what triggered the short term downturn.
The day Trump exits quarantine we also have futures expiration...
The markets till then can correct to that point and also test SMA200 in the excuse of trump health uncertainty. At the same time all retail robinhooders will be terrified since most of them hold long positions forcing them to go vote for Trump!!!
Trump winning covid 3 weeks before elections will give him tremendous boost and momentum towards elections.
DJI: Trump's Covid-19 Case - A Historical ComparisonIn this analysis I'll be shedding light on my own theory on:
- How President Trump's Covid-19 Positive news may impact the market
- Similarities and differences in historic cases
- Why Trump possibly announced his testing positive so quickly
Trump's Testing Positive
- Trump testing positive for Covid-19, 4 weeks before the presidential elections, is not good news
- Especially considering that the current market is momentum driven, such bad news is good enough to scare new investors from pouring money into the market
We can see a similar case where the president's medical condition negatively impacted the market
Historic case
- President Eisenhower suffered a heart attack in September 25, 1955.
- Before this incident, the stock market was at an unprecedented bullish rally
- Immediately after news was released that he was hospitalized, the market fell by 6%, leading to $14 billion instantly vanishing
- Eisenhower recovered, and it was later announced that his condition was not serious
- Eventually, the market bounced, and continued to rally upwards
- President Trump also announced his testing positive for Covid-19 a few hours ago
- Just as Eisenhower's case, the stock market is in an uptrend, with significant bullish momentum
- The market is correcting, due to bad news, but not as significantly as that of the past
- Just as Eisenhower, considering the fact that Trump will be taken care of seriously, it's most likely that he will recover from the virus
- As such, it's reasonable to expect that the market will continue to rally upwards
- However, it's also important to consider that market situations are not the same as the past
- For more in-depth explanation on what makes today's market special, check out my previous analysis below:
Why did Trump announce his condition?
- This is an important question to ask, as Trump announced his testing positive for Covid via twitter
- Trump is arguably the most powerful person in the world. He could have concealed his condition if he really wanted to, and later justify it as "classified information"
- What could have been Trump's intentions behind this?
- In the case of the Prime Minister of the UK, Boris Johnson, his support rate was at 48% prior to him testing positive
- After he got the virus, there was a sentiment of sympathy among the general public, leading to his support rate skyrocketing to 72%, an all time high support rate ever since Tony Blair
- Given this case, and the fact that the presidential elections will be held in 4 weeks, Trump could have been targeting this sympathetic sentiment among the general public
- It's also highly likely that Trump recovers quickly, with the best medical staff from the country treating him
- As such, he will be qualified to talk about the issue (as someone who has caught the virus), and suggest that he's the only one capable of solving the problem.
Conclusion
As past cases demonstrate, problems regarding the President's medical condition is never good for the market. However, given that the president recovers quickly, this could end up being a 'buy the dip' opportunity.
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I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
FX Update: Trump has Covid-19 and first move is risk-offSummary: The US dollar and Japanese yen knee-jerked stronger on the news in early European hours that US President Trump and the First Lady have tested positive for Covid-19 after traveling with a sick aide in recent days. The implications of this news could turn in very different directions for markets from here depending on how serious Trump reacts to the virus.
Trading focus:
Tactical uncertainty on Trump Covid-19 positive test
The first instinct when any bombshell hits the market that increases uncertainty is to head to the hills. Somewhat surprisingly, the market tone managed to stay positive despite lack of progress on new stimulus measures in the US (more on that below) and even after it was clear that Trump had been heavily exposed to the virus in recent days when it turns out an aide traveling with him to campaign events tested positive yesterday. But the situation can quickly go in very different directions from here
Mild case – Trump gets a light sniffle and is battle ready after a week to ten days. Not only would the net effect be negligible on Trump’s health, but could also provide him with ammunition in his claims that most people – even a relatively older man like himself – don’t get severe systems and that his opponents have been wrong to so strongly criticize his handling of the virus.
Severe case – Trump is sideline with a severe case of the virus for two weeks or more. Anything resembling a case as sever as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s case back in the spring (16 days from announcement of a positive test until he was released from hospital) could underline the severity of the virus and keep Trump’s schedule reduced and his energy low and maybe enhance the credibility of criticisms of his administrations’ handling of the virus and change the mind of some small cross-section of voters.
For now the market is taking this situation as driving a shift in favour of Biden, with the USD positive reaction on the tail of that showing that risk sentiment swings seem more important for driving the US dollar at the moment than any thoughts about the budget deficit outlook and risk to inflation down the road from higher Democrat spending levels (only in the event Dems get the Senate back, of course).
Remember the US stimulus question – the more important factor here if Trump’s Covid-19 proves a mere distraction.
The House Democrats passed a $2.2 trillion bill for new stimulus by a relative narrow margin and with zero Republican votes. This is smaller than their original stimulus package of well over $3 trillion, but their moving forward with this deal is seen by some as providing little hope that the Trump White House is ready to make a deal, with a possibly side-lined Trump adding to the risk of no-deal at the margin. No stimulus is risk sentiment negative and therefore generally USD positive, given recent patterns. A breakthrough is still a possibility over the weekend, with House Speaker Pelosi set to meet US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin at the weekend.
Brexit – spot trading is dangerous business – options an idea.
If it wasn’t already obvious, yesterday’s price action in sterling underlined the risk of trying to express a tactical view in sterling via spot trades, as conflicting headlines on the state of post-Brexit sterling all over the map. Positioning in options is an idea for those who would like to have a position over the next critical few weeks of the negotiation period and even for beyond December 31 for anyone believing that the talks will go to the wire. A long strangle position in either EURGBP or GBPUSD (long both an out of the money put and call) are a way to trade volatility with no idea of the directional view, and those with directional views can consider taking a long position in either a put or a call or a put spread or call spread. An option spread (long one option and short another option that is much farther out of the money reduces the extent of the directional move needed to break even but reduces also the maximum potential profit if volatility spikes significantly. In an escalation of the stakes of the negotiations, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to meet EU Commission president Ursula Von Der Leyen tomorrow.
Chart: AUDJPY
AUDJPY is a classic proxy within G10 currencies for risk appetite and found resistance – as did many USD pairs – right at important resistance, in this case, the head-and-shoulders-like neckline around 0.7600 and just ahead of the21-day and 55-day moving averages. Arguably, this is a kind of bull-bear line, as is the 0.7200 area in AUDUSD – for risk sentiment in FX at the moment. Stay tuned – hard to believe that traders would want to get aggressively risk-on ahead of the weekend as we await more news on Trump’s condition.
Oops – what happened in commodities yesterday? Watching commodity FX
The commodity complex had an interesting session yesterday, with oil prices dragged lower still and perched on the precipice of major support. The oil demand picture is looking tenuous as some major European cities from Madrid to London to Paris may be on the verge of new lock-downs and the case count in the US has failed to continue falling. Weak commodity prices are a hitch in the reflationary narrative and are worth watching, not only for petro-currencies, but any commodity-linked currency like AUD and others. The copper price in particular suffered a massive drop yesterday. Still, it is interesting to see that EURNOK has pushed significantly back lower this morning despite both the risk-off and weak oil prices – a strong showing for the krone.
John Hardy
Head of FX Strategy
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General Electric Stock Analysis + Ready for recovery !📌 General Electric Stock Analysis. For Financials Analysis Sheet kindly message us through Trading View.
📍 Stock info
Market Cap 54.62B
Revenue (ttm) 77.37B
Net Income (ttm) -4.48B
Shares Out 8.75B
EPS (ttm) -0.58
PE Ratio n/a
Forward PE 16.00
Dividend $0.04
Dividend Yield 0.64%
📍 Stock Quote
Trading Day Oct 2, 2020
Last Price $6.24
Previous Close $6.23
Change ($) 0.01
Change (%) 0.16%
Day's Open 6.28
Day's Range 6.11 - 6.29
Day's Volume 96,781,556
52-Week Range 5.48 - 13.26
📍 Market Cap 54.62B
Enterprise Value 95.07B
Earnings Date (est) Oct 28, 2020
Ex-Dividend Date Sep 25, 2020
Shares Outstanding 8.75B
Float 8.70B
EPS (basic) -0.58
EPS (diluted) -0.58
FCF / Share 0.69
📍 Dividend $0.04
Dividend Yield 0.64%
Earnings Yield n/a
FCF Yield 10.97%
Payout Ratio n/a
Shares Short 103.57M
Short Ratio 1.28
Short % of Float 1.19%
Beta 0.92
📍 PE Ratio n/a
Forward PE 16.00
P/FCF Ratio 9.11
PS Ratio 0.71
PB Ratio 1.58
Revenue 77.37B
Operating Income 819.00M
Net Income -4.48B
Free Cash Flow 5.99B
📍 Description
General Electric Company operates as a high-tech industrial company in the United States, Europe, Asia, the Americas, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through Power, Renewable Energy, Aviation, Healthcare, and Capital segments. The Power segment offers technologies, solutions, and services related to energy production, including gas and steam turbines, generators, and power generation services. The Renewable Energy segment provides wind turbine platforms, and hardware and software; offshore wind turbines; solutions, products, and services to hydropower industry; blades for onshore and offshore wind turbines; and high voltage equipment. The Aviation segment provides jet engines and turboprops for commercial and military airframes; maintenance, component repair, and overhaul services, as well as replacement parts; integrated digital components; and additive machines and materials, and engineering services. The Healthcare segment provides healthcare technologies in medical imaging, digital solutions, patient monitoring, and diagnostics; drug discovery; biopharmaceutical manufacturing technologies; and performance enhancement solutions to hospitals, medical facilities, pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, and life science research markets. The Capital segment leases and finances aircraft, aircraft engines, and helicopters; provides financial and underwriting solutions; and manages its run-off insurance operations which provides life and health insurance and reinsurance products. The company was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
💡 Is GE a good idea after all?
With its focus on renewable energy and its decision to stop catering to the shrinking coal industry -- in addition to its stronger financial position -- it's understandable why investors have grown so interested in GE's stock lately. For investors with a higher tolerance for risk and a willingness to weather near-term volatility, GE seems worth considering to Hold for better returns an portfolio Building.
Thank You.
Buy the Dips: Today is an Opportunity DayToday is a great "opportunity day" to average down, swing trade on volatility, or do buy and hold consolidations/dip buying strategies. Extremely unfortunate news, is that the US president and first lady have been diagnosed with Covid19 . Given futures, and market option, today looks to have lots of red or at least some bearish correlations. Pre-market especially will be brutal, and close may get intense. Panic selling on any red day or creating losses over opportunities, usually doesn't end well. That said, do your own due diligence and invest at your own risk.
XLF- Mac-D serving as an early buy signal.AMEX:XLF has seen some channel trading from 2018 too early this year. Finding its range peak in February of 2020 it crashed hard and has been working it's way up since. In red and green (A-D) are the main support and resistance levels and I have noted on the MAC-D where price has reversed, and also accounted for some major financial events such as the Chinese trade war and COVID-19 pandemic. XLF seems to have found its new channel and will either retest its support on the downside and hold the channel or test the SMAs as resistance on the upside and possibly find its way into the former price range leading up to the election. I am going to use MAC-D as my signal to buy as we near a cross.