Don't sleep on NVAXWhat I am seeing here is the most sophisticated accumulation setup I have come across in the market - and CO has been doing this for NVAX cyclically every pandemic in the past. The company focuses on stopping the propagation of viruses, however, CO spins it by propagating demand (like a virus) and absorbing supply which they injected intentionally at strategic stages downstream! This is nice, nested markup activation.
Sorry if its difficult to see clearly, that is for me. I will post a followup idea where I zoom in and discuss the projected most likely scenarios. But here is the bigger picture that I wanted to present as surprisingly high probability targets/critical levels to watch in the coming weeks. I used MRNA epic run in summer 2021as a proxy, as well as a general method that I developed to make such predictions on Markup phases.
- Minimum Target by August is 119 (given that 79 can be breached in time - will discuss the time component in followup post).
- Sweet spot/target spot I'm expecting by mid September is 217-229
- If they invoke chaos w.r.t. demand and break above 171 by Jul 25th, then max target by mid-Septemer is ~350 (when such a squeeze occurs as it did last Jan, and it is highly likely is what we are about to see, establishing a point target is nearly impossible so the max target range 300-400).
*** NVAX activated markup on Friday July 1st. There is a nested activation that will trigger if it gets above 63-65 by July 11th-18th, and there is an carryover activation level at 171 which regained the capacity for activation on 3/21/2022 - for it to be reactivated, the price must break above it by 7/25/2022.
Smuggled between these activation levels, there are price (%) doubling and period halving bifurcation levels where the price will gap if hit. These require a massive squeeze, which NVAX is more than capable of currently - these levels are at 65, 83, and 217.
The next supply/demand equilibrium point is July 5th, so good chance they will announce approval before the bell tomorrow. Once time crosses the equilibrium point there are windows where the activation and bifurcation levels remain in effect. So if price keeps up with time or exceeds it, here is what I expect:
- Gap up Tuesday to trigger 63-65 and then continue to resistance at 79 by July 7th-8th
- After rejection from 79, it will pullback and test 65 for support, if that holds and it bounces I'd expect the 2nd wave of the squeeze to kick in and drive it above 79. They have the bifurcation set in place at 83 to gap it toward 100 once it hits 83.
- From there it gets tricky, because there is another nested markup activator that I haven't even discussed because its beyond the scope of this post, it was a distribution phase beginning in Jan 2022.. my theory is that it serves the purpose of kicking in the 3rd and final phase of the squeeze once 83 is breached. It is the only way I see this getting over 119. There is an attractor at 106 that could allow them to re-accumulate there in order to breach 119. If they make it to 131 it will begin a rally similar to what MRNA saw in 2021. For NVAX, it looks like above 131 will open the door for 171, then gap to 217-229, and finally run to 300-400 where they will begin the final distribution pertaining to Covid-19.
When its all said and done this will make its way back down to ~20 in 2023, likely even lower by 2024.
