DAX // correction of the correction - neutralThe market turned south on H4 from the all-time highs and the H1 target fibo 138.2.
As long as this short H4 countertrend is valid (the market is below the H4 impulse base), I'm waiting for a bearish H1 countertrend break to target again the correction fibo 23.6
The daily impulse base is in the way, so the trade has to be managed there - it may be a target or a scale-in opportunity.
Of course, I'l try to publish how I pull my trigger line as the H1 countertrend develops.
For me, long only above the highest clear breakdown (green).
———
Trading is just waiting "sometimes", but opportunities are endless, so why not wait for the right moment!🏄🏼♂️
We may not know what will happen, but we can prepare ourselves to respond effectively to whatever unfolds.
Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼♂️
Your comments and support are appreciated! 👊🏼
Correction
Bitcoin can make small move up and then drop to support lineHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price a few moments ago started to decline and fell to the buyer zone, breaking the support level, where it some time traded. Later it tried to grow, but failed and quickly fell back to the buyer zone, after which made a strong upward impulse, breaking 95500 with 102200 levels. Next, the price grew more and then dropped to 90500 points, after which backed up and started to trades inside the triangle pattern. In this pattern, BTC almost rose to its current support level and then started to decline. In a short time, the price fell to the 95500 support level, and even lower, to support line of the triangle, which is coincided with the buyer zone. Then BTC bounced up and rose to the 102200 level, after which made little correction and then continued to move up. Some time later, the price reached the 102200 level again, broke it and now BTC trades inside the support area, very close to the resistance line of the triangle. So, for this case, I think BTC can make a small movement up and then continue to fall to the support line of the triangle pattern, breaking the support level. That's why I set my TP at 98900 points, which coincided with this line. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Silver May Face More Weakness After A Corrective RallySilver is making sharp reversal down from recent highs, even breaking a lower trendline support of an ending diagonal which is an important indication for a top in place. As such, we are aware of much lower prices, maybe even back to the start of a diagonal at around 27/28 as drop from 4h time frame has an impulsive bearish structure into wave A/1.
But we see some bounce now that can be an A-B-C irregular/expanded flat correction into wave B/2, where subwave (C) can be now in progress. Resistance is then around 31.60-33 area, and from where we will have to be aware of further weakness within wave C or 3.
GBPUSD // Idea to Trade the CorrectionThe daily long countertrend is valid.
After testing an H4 breakout, the market is in neutral zone, right at the highest clear breakdown (green - long trigger zone).
The target is the 38.2 correction fibo level.
The countertrend line is drawn on H4 closing prices.
———
Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼♂️
Your comments, questions, and support are greatly appreciated! 👊🏼
DAX // Trading the CountertrendThere is a trigger level (red) at the last H1 breakout on M15 with waves already down.
If it is trigger on M15, the target is the correction fibo 23.6, see the linked video for further analysis.
———
Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼♂️
Your comments, questions, and support are greatly appreciated! 👊🏼
ETHEREUM - BULLISH AFEthereum: A Technical Masterpiece with a Psychological Challenge
Ethereum's price action showcases remarkable technical precision. However, the real test lies in managing emotions: impatience and impulsive decisions often lead traders to quick losses.
📈 Projection:
Expect a steady climb toward $4,300 until around December 17–18. At that point, a correction of -15% to -30% is likely, though the exact scale will depend on market conditions.
📅 Key Date:
By December 23, ensure your positions are set. As the market evolves, navigating increased difficulty will require discipline—this phase is not for the unprepared.
📊 Comparison:
The current price movement mirrors Ethereum’s 2020 trend, proving that while history doesn’t repeat, it often rhymes.
⚠️ Plan Ahead:
Approach the market with a clear strategy. Maintain well-defined entry and exit plans, and avoid emotional decision-making. Recklessness has no place here.
🚀 Looking Ahead:
January promises explosive growth, likely peaking around mid-month. This period demands focus and resilience—those who stay disciplined stand to benefit the most.
💡 Takeaway:
Ethereum’s journey is more than just price action; it’s a test of patience and strategy. Stick to your plan, trust the process, and let the market work for you.
💼 Upcoming Trade:
I’m about to open a new trade, which I’ll share with you here—just like the one I posted at $3,100. Now’s the time to make money and stay laser-focused. Don’t hesitate to follow me and keep an eye out for updates!
Stay sharp, stay grounded, and may the odds be in your favor.
God bless you.
—Jay
Bitcoin Is About To Enter 100K Area SoonBitcoin with ticker BTCUSD is coming and moving nicely higher as expected, after Donald Trump won US elections, so coin remains in a strong bullish five-wave impulse on a daily chart with room even up to 130k-150k area. Price came nicely higher, out of a recent wave 4 consolidation into wave 5 of an extended wave (3) close to 100k area in the 4-hour chart. Now that BTC is slowing down, seems like it's making a higher degree correction in wave (4) before the uptrend for wave (5) of 3 towards 100k area resumes. It's ideally forming a bullish triangle pattern in wave (4), but alternatively be also aware of a deeper correction, which can still retest 90k-85k support zone.
DAX // Start of CorrectionThe bearish countertrend is valid on H4.
Therefore, until the H4 impulse base is not taken back by the buyers, the long H1 countertrend broken may signal that another down wave is coming.
———
Stay Patient, Stay Disciplined! 🏄🏼♂️
Your comments, questions, and support are greatly appreciated! 👊🏼
DAX // Start of CorrectionThe market printed 3 waves down on H4 below the H4 long impulse base, after reaching the daily target fibo 223.6,
so the countertrend on H4 is valid.
The market may come in the counter space of the daily impulse.
———
Stay Patient, Stay Disciplined! 🏄🏼♂️
Your comments, questions, and support are greatly appreciated! 👊🏼
$104K and Counting: Can Bitcoin Sustain Its Momentum?COINBASE:BTCUSD - Daily
Current Price: 97,520
Executive Summary:
Is Bitcoin Set for a Correction After Hitting $104,000?
Bitcoin has hit significant milestones, with two of our predicted targets—$90,000 and $100,000—successfully achieved, delivering a remarkable gain of 46.44% and 3,307,221 pips. After climbing to $104,000, Bitcoin entered extreme overbought territory across daily, weekly, and monthly charts, signaling exhaustion. With the formation of an ascending channel and overbought signals, a potential correction could be on the horizon. Here’s what to expect next.
Analysis:
In our earlier analysis, we predicted key price targets of $90K, $100K, and $110K. Bitcoin successfully hit $90K and $100K, eventually climbing to $104K—a remarkable gain of 46.44% and 3,307,221 pips. However, this rally propelled Bitcoin into extreme overbought territory across multiple timeframes, signaling a potential need for correction.
On November 6, Bitcoin broke out of a falling wedge/handle pattern, driving the price to $104K. Since November 12, it has been ascending within a channel—a formation that often precedes a downward correction. Coupled with extreme overbought conditions on daily, weekly, and monthly charts, Bitcoin now shows clear signs of buyer exhaustion.
Potential Correction Level:
Fibonacci Retracement (50%): $85,327.80
Key Levels to Watch:
• Extreme Overbought: $112,500
• Overbought Resistance: $106,250
• Ultimate Resistance: $100,000
• Major Support: $75,000
Thank you for taking the time to read this analysis. Wishing you great success in your trading journey! Always prioritise proper risk management to achieve sustainable growth in the markets. Good luck with your trades!
ETH - Doing it AGAIN...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈ETH has been bullish trading within the rising channel in red.
Currently, ETH is rejecting the upper bound of the channel, so a bearish correction is expected.
Moreover, the green zone is a strong structure.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green structure and lower trendline acting as non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #ETH approaches the blue circle, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Will Berkshire Hathaway hit $525 before a healthy correction?📈 Introduction Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) has shown a consistent pattern of growth over the past years, forming well-defined bullish channels with predictable wave lengths. The current price action suggests a potential healthy correction before another upward rally that could see prices reach the $525 mark.
💡 Key Observations from the Chart
1 - Channel Dynamics:
The price has respected two major ascending channels over the last few years. Each channel has shown waves of sustained upward momentum, lasting approximately 731 days and 790 days, respectively. This consistent cyclicity points to a reliable trend structure.
2 - Correction Phase Ahead?
Based on historical patterns and technical indicators, we might see a short-term correction into the $450-$460 range. This is supported by:
Overbought signals from the Stochastic Oscillator (75/77).
A potential test of the lower boundary of the current ascending channel.
3 - Upside Potential to $525 ~ $550+
After the correction, the next bullish phase could see prices push toward key resistance levels at $491.67 and ultimately $525.90. The confluence of the SMA and VWAP levels reinforces this projection, with strong support near $457.51 acting as a springboard for the next rally.
What’s Next?
The stock remains in a long-term uptrend, and the current dip should be seen as an opportunity rather than a threat. With volatility at 9.63%, the market appears poised for a calculated breakout in the medium term.
What do you think?
MCHP Long Setup: Oversold Rebound w/ Rising Volatility & VolumeMicrochip Technology (MCHP) is presenting a promising long opportunity for a temporary rebound, supported by three strong technical factors:
Slow Stochastic in Extreme Oversold Territory : The indicator is below 20, signaling excessive selling pressure, often linked to potential short-term recoveries.
Rising Volatility Index (LSVI) : The significant increase in volatility suggests the market is entering a phase of larger price movements, increasing the probability of a sharper rebound.
Increasing Volume with Reduced Decline: Recent candles show higher trading volume accompanied by a slowing rate of decline, indicating potential buyer activity and a technical correction from the recent sharp drop.
With the price near a critical support zone and a target identified at $65.00 (10% gain), this setup offers a compelling risk-reward ratio for short-term traders. If the price crosses above the red line, it may reach $71.00 (20% gain).
Watching for confirmations such as a %K/%D crossover on the Slow Stoch and sustained buying volume will be key to validating this thesis.
Disclaimer : Always manage risk carefully, particularly in high-volatility environments.
BTC correction is inevitable...So... BTC made it to 100k and beyond!!! Amazing fact indeed. History is repeating again and each time with higher prices but even without super special technical analysis, the logical thing to happen is a correction sooner or later. maybe not under 85k-90k , maybe more but it IS going to happen no matter if governments and MicroStrategy or everyone else is buying. When BTC reached 74k for the first time, MicroStrategy, governments and everyone was buying BTC, all moon boys and moon girls were shouting to infinity and beyond etc yet a correction happened. Same since 2017 when BTC reached 19k for the first time, same at 38k, same at 59k, same at 64k and so on...
Of course IMO BTC will go higher and higher as time passes (and I hope so as a trader) but all parabolic moves lasted for a while and then corrections came.
Share your opinions in the comment if you like!!
Final Post: The Collapse Is Brewing🚨 Final Warning: The Collapse is Brewing 🚨
The market is flashing unmistakable warning signals. If you’re still clinging to the idea of endless upside, it’s time to confront the data. Here are the key reasons why the market is on the brink of a major crash:
1. Record Dumb Money Investment, Consumer Debt, and Reckless Behavior
Small traders, often referred to as “dumb money,” are more heavily invested in equities than ever in recorded financial history. Historically, these traders are most bullish at market tops, while smart money—like institutional investors—are quietly exiting.
A prime example is Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett, widely regarded as one of the greatest investors of all time, has been signaling caution through his actions. Berkshire Hathaway is on track to finish its second straight year as a net seller of stocks, unloading a record $133.2 billion in equities through the first three quarters of 2024. The majority of these sales came from its largest holding, Apple (AAPL), generating over $125 billion in proceeds.
Buffett's reluctance to reinvest that capital is a significant red flag. Even more telling, Berkshire has not repurchased any of its own stock this year for the first time in six years, signaling that Buffett believes even Berkshire itself is overvalued. This aligns with his famous adage: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
At the same time, households are drowning in record levels of debt. Credit card balances have surged to all-time highs, and auto loan delinquencies are near record levels, signaling that consumers are stretched to the brink. Meanwhile, households have allocated more of their portfolios to equities than ever before, reaching record levels of stock investments as a percentage of total household equity.
This dangerous combination of overleveraged consumer spending and peak exposure to equities creates the perfect storm. When the market begins to fall, liquidity issues and forced selling could accelerate the crash dramatically.
2. Elliott Wave Analysis: A Probable Turning Point
When Wave 3 is extended, Wave 5 is typically shorter and often mirrors the length of Wave 1. In the chart above, I highlight a potential key target at 6,104.51 on the SPX, where Minor Wave 5 will equal 161.8% of Minor Wave 1. This level represents a probable turning point, as Wave 5 is unlikely to extend much further given the size of Wave 3 and the guideline concerning Wave 3 extensions.
Additionally, the Minor Wave 1-3 trendline, shown on the chart, is a critical resistance level and a reliable predictor for pinpointing the end of Wave 5. This trendline suggests that Wave 5 is ending very soon, most likely by the end of the year.
3. Uninverted Yield Curve (After a Record Inversion)
Buffetts favorite recession indicator! The yield curve has recently uninverted, a historically flawless predictor of recessions. But this time, it spent a record amount of time inverted, signaling extreme stress in the financial system.
There is a strong historical correlation between the length of the inversion and the severity and length of the subsequent recession. With this inversion lasting longer than any in recorded history, the implications for the economy could be catastrophic.
Final Thoughts
The writing is on the wall. With record dumb money investment, Elliott Wave pattern nearing completion, a recently uninverted yield curve after a record inversion, and record consumer debt, the market is primed for a crash.
Banks are sitting on over $500 billion in unrealized losses—and that’s just what we know of. The cracks in the financial system are growing, and in 2025, we should prepare for a 40-50% correction in US equities and banking failures across the globe.
Greed and recklessness have reached unsustainable levels. History shows that these excesses are always punished, and this time will be no different.
Stay cautious—this is your final warning. There will be no other post.
Chainlink Targets $35: Key Resistance at $25 in FocusHello,
Chainlink (LINK) is maintaining strong bullish momentum, currently approaching the $25 resistance level. A confirmed breakout here could open the path toward $35 as an initial target. Monitor the price action around the resistance zone for confirmation. As always, ensure effective risk management is in place.
BR,
Zscaler (ZS): Liquidity Below $154—A Drop Imminent?Zscaler is becoming interesting again, not only due to its earnings call yesterday but also because it has formed a strong sell-side liquidity below $154.
After a period of sideways movement, we anticipate a sell-off to take out the liquidity below, most likely wicking into the $151-$122 area. If this plays out, it should conclude the wave C and wave (2).
We did not believe the earnings report will have a decisive impact, but it still could provide one last push into the $220-$237 range before the expected drop to wave (2).
At this point, we are not placing any limit orders but have set alerts to monitor the development of this scenario closely.
Portfolio and the Sensex Correction AnalysisMy personal Portfolio performance against the Indian markets, all with holding period of 1 year to 3 years. (No single stock in the portfolio taken with tips from others, brokers, TV. All research on my own, using Fundamental / Technical analysis learned over past 20 years of weekends).
This includes stocks sold, dividend received, no mutual funds included:
The portfolio has had a draw down of 7.5% from peak from 2 months ago to bottom 1 week ago which was a market correction of 11%
A lot of the Ideas i have been posting over the years on trading view platform were part of my portfolio, when i analyzed a stock i thought i should share. I stop sharing when i didn't have time or had personal issues.
I thought i should share my performance on the platform which has helped me analyse.
Portfolio-and-Sensex-after-recent-11-correctionMy personal Portfolio performance against the Indian markets, all with holding period of 1 year to 3 years. (No single stock in the portfolio taken with tips from others, brokers, TV. All research on my own, using Fundamental / Technical analysis learned over past 20 years of weekends).
This includes stocks sold, dividend received, no mutual funds included:
The portfolio has had a draw down of 7.5% from peak from 2 months ago to bottom 1 week ago, during which Sensex had a correction of 11%.
During correction, i sold weak stocks and accumulated strong ones at the 200d EMA support.
I used Tradingview for all my technical analysis and thought it right to share my performance on this platform.
I am a student of the stock market, i do not recommend, nor take recommendations . Best thing if you don't have the time to do research and the analysis or learn it, as it is a full time job, stick to mutual funds and that too SIP. Or take recommendation from only SEBI registered and experts analysts preferably a authorised portfolio manager.
Disclaimer: i have never recommended stocks, all part of my educational purpose and sharing my analysis for feedback purposes only.
Golden Cross, Overbought Conditions, and Key Resistance Ahead!OANDA:XAUUSD Multi-Timeframe Analysis
Price is above all moving averages, indicating an uptrend. A Golden Cross is forming near the 2656 level, suggesting bullish potential. However, caution is advised as the price is near strong resistance, which may cap upward movement. For a potential correction, the price target is 2656.
The monthly RSI is overbought at 80.07, indicating a potential long-term pullback. The weekly RSI is mildly bullish at 65.45, while the daily RSI is neutral at 58.62. The 4-hour RSI is overbought at 76.36, signaling a possible pullback. The 3-hour and 2-hour RSIs are extremely overbought, with bearish divergence, reinforcing a likely near-term correction.
The price is approaching a critical resistance zone, where sellers may enter. Weak volume across timeframes suggests a lack of buying conviction, and if volume remains weak near resistance, a reversal or consolidation could occur.
Actionable Insights:
Caution is advised due to overbought conditions and weak volume. Watch for price rejection at resistance for a potential pullback. If the Golden Cross is confirmed, ensure volume picks up to sustain the move; otherwise, the breakout may be short-lived. A pullback or reversal is likely, especially near resistance, with the price target for a correction at 2656.
key levels:
Ultimate Resistance: 2734.375
Major Support, Pivot Point: 2656.250
Ultimate Support: 2578.125
Reminder: Always follow your risk management strategies and trade responsibly.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
Happy trading!