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NVDIA Death Cross Quant Perspectives (Light Case Study)NASDAQ: Nvidia (NVDA ) has recently experienced an uptrend after a death cross formed consisting of the 65 and 200 EMAs on the 1 Day chart. If we analyze back on Nvidia starting in 1999 , we can count a total of 10 death crosses that have occurred, and 9 have been immediately followed by downtrends. Although a single death cross did not have an immediate downtrend, shortly after this event (approx. 282 days) another death cross formed and price then fell roughly twice as it historically has , almost appearing to make up for the missed signal. From a quantitative perspective: If we calculate the raw historical success rate using: Raw Success Rate = 9/10 = 90 With this calculation the observed success of 65/200 EMA death crosses correlating to an immediate downtrend is 90% In order to avoid overconfidence we can apply Laplace smoothing using: Smoothed Probability = 9+1/10+2 = 10/12 or 0.8333 With this calculation the observed success of 65/200 EMA death crosses correlating to an immediate downtrend is 83% Given the results of the data I personally feel that there is a Very High (83%) chance this death cross that recently formed on the 1 Day chart (around 04/16/2025) will immediately lead to a downtrend. And a Low (17%) chance it does not. Furthermore these results support a technical analysis hypothesis that I formed prior. Many different systemic factors can contribute to the market movement, but mathematics sometimes leave subtle clues. Will the market become bearish? Or will Nvidia gain renewed bullish interest? Disclaimer: Not Financial Advice.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by TRADEABLESKUNK
5
GOLD - Price can make correction and then continue to growHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Price broke out from the lower wedge line and started climbing with confidence, building momentum step by step. After bouncing off the $3215 zone, it pushed higher and touched the wedge resistance without major rejection. The current candle formation shows signs of slowing down, hinting at a possible short-term pullback ahead. Despite that, the structure remains bullish, and buyers are likely to defend local support if the price dips slightly. With the breakout zones holding firm, I expect Gold to make a correction and then resume the upward path. My target is set at $3500, where the upper wedge boundary might once again act as key resistance. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WalterMoon
15
HelenP. I Euro can make correction movement to $1.1150 pointsHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. After testing the upper boundary of the ascending channel, the price showed signs of slowing momentum. Earlier, the price steadily climbed within the upward channel, forming consistently higher lows while bouncing from the lower trend line and support zones. During its rally, the price also reclaimed the 1.0950 level, turning it into a solid support zone, and continued higher with minor consolidations along the way. Eventually, the pair reached the resistance trend line at the top of the channel, where sellers began to show activity. This zone aligned with previous local highs and acted as a point of reversal. Following the rejection from the top boundary, the Euro formed a local high and started to flatten, indicating reduced bullish pressure. Now the price is trading slightly below the resistance trend line and remains inside the upward channel. Given the current structure and the latest price action near the upper edge, I expect a downward movement from this zone. My current goal is the 1.1150 points, which aligns with the midline of the channel and a key technical level from recent consolidation. This bearish scenario is supported by the reaction from the upper boundary and the potential for correction within the channel range. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Short
by FirstNameHelen
11
Nasdaq - This Is Still Not The End Yet!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) cannot resist bearish pressure: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Over the past three months, we saw such a harsh correction on the Nasdaq that a lot of people are freaking out entirely. However technicals already told us that something feels wrong and this is the result. If we see another -10% from here, buying the dip will most likely pay off. Levels to watch: $16.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:NDQShort
by basictradingtv
13
Gold can exit from wedge and drop to support levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. Price action on Gold has shown strong bullish momentum earlier, as it broke out of the previous upward channel and started forming an upward wedge. The rally gained traction once the price left the buyer zone between 3006 - 3025 points, pushing through multiple resistance levels and creating a new structure of higher highs. After the breakout from the wedge’s support line, the price continued to grow and eventually reached the upper boundary of the wedge pattern. Here, we saw a clear reaction and reversal, signaling potential exhaustion among buyers. Currently, the price is trading just below the upper wedge resistance and has already made a pullback after the latest local high. Given this structure and the fact that the wedge pattern is tightening, I expect gold to reverse again and decline toward 3270, which is my first TP. If pressure continues, the price may drop to the 3210 current support level as TP2. The reaction from the upper wedge boundary, combined with weakening momentum and a strong support area below, supports my bearish outlook for now. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by LegionQ8
15
GOLD - After upward movement, price can correct to support areaHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 After a long, steady climb inside a rising channel, Gold pushed through local resistance and gained momentum. The move extended beyond the channel's top, marking a fresh high near $3240 points, attracting strong attention. But after this sharp push, the price began losing steam and rolled into a soft pullback phase. Now, Gold is holding just above the $3160 area, retesting the zone that was previously broken upward. Volume is slowing down, and the price action shows hesitation without follow-through on the upside. I believe Gold could roll over from here and revisit the $3130 support area in the coming sessions. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WalterMoon
9
HelenP. I Gold will make correction movement to support zoneHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. After a strong breakout from the ascending structure, price continued its bullish momentum and reached a fresh local high near 3340 points. This impulsive rally was preceded by a steady upward trend inside a rising channel, where the price showed multiple rejections from the lower boundary and the trend line, particularly near the 2970 level, which also matched with the key support zone at 2950 - 2970 points. The upward movement accelerated once Gold broke through the previous resistance zone around 3160 points, which is now acting as support. That level also coincides with the upper edge of the earlier consolidation area, making it a key zone for potential future reactions. At the moment, the Gold is trading far above the trend line and is extended from its last confirmed support structure. Given the sharp vertical impulse and the lack of significant pullbacks, I expect a downward correction toward the 3175 - 3160 support zone, which is my current goal. This area remains critical for evaluating the next buyer reaction and further trend continuation. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FirstNameHelen
6
GOLD - Price can rise a little and then correct to support areaHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 A few days ago price traded inside a rising channel, showing steady growth and holding above support levels. Later, Gold made several breakouts from local resistances and continued to rise within the channel borders. Eventually price reached the upper edge of the channel and formed a local top around the $3238 level. Recently, it made a short-term pullback and now trades just above $3165 support zone without momentum. Currently, Gold stays in the upper part of the range but shows early weakness after a strong bullish rally. In my opinion, Gold can decline and reach the $3140 support level during the next corrective wave down. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WalterMoon
12
HelenP. I Gold may make correction and then continue to growHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. Following a deep correction that pushed the price down to the support zone between 2975 and 2950 points, Gold made a strong bullish reversal. This zone had already acted as a key accumulation area in the past, and once again, buyers stepped in aggressively. The reaction from support 2 at 2975 points was sharp, with the price bouncing and forming a clear impulse move. As XAU continued to rise, it broke back above the trend line and retested it, turning former resistance into support. Shortly after, the price pushed above the local support zone between 3165 and 3185 points, confirming the strength of the bullish trend. This zone is now acting as a base for further growth. Currently, Gold is trading above the trend line and support zone, holding near the 3230 area. The recent bullish momentum, strong impulse structure, and consistent reaction to technical levels indicate that buyers remain in control. Given the breakout, successful retest, and strength from key support zones, I expect XAUUSD to continue rising toward my goal at 3300 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FirstNameHelen
22
Gold can make correction to mirorr line, after upward movementHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. After a strong breakout from the support area between 2975 - 3000 points, the price continued moving upward, forming an impulsive rally. This movement brought the asset directly into the upper support area, now acting as resistance, between 3195 - 3170 points. Once inside this zone, the bullish momentum began to slow down. This area also aligns with previous local highs and is showing clear signs of selling pressure. The recent reaction from the top of the zone suggests that the market could be preparing for a pullback. If this reaction develops further, I expect the price to head toward the mirror line, which currently acts as a dynamic support level, located around TP1 - 3120 points. This line has historically served as a key structure level - first as resistance, then flipped into support - and now may once again act as a magnet for price. A retest of this level would not break the overall bullish structure but could provide a healthy correction before the next leg. Considering the sharp push into resistance, the potential loss of bullish momentum, and the nearby structural support at 3120 points, I remain bearish in the short term, expecting a local decline. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by LegionQ8
16
USDCAD - Long-Term Long!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈USDCAD has been overall bullish from a macro perspective trading within the rising blue channel. This week, USDCAD has been in a correction phase trading within the falling red channel. Moreover, the green zone is a strong resistance turned support. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of support and lower red/blue trendlines acting non-horizontal support. 📚 As per my trading style: As #USDCAD approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TheSignalyst
3
SP500: Is This the 2025 Correction? Or Just Another Bounce?Looking at the weekly chart of the S&P 500 with RSI and key support trendlines, it’s clear we’ve entered a historically important level. 🔍 Context: 2020 → COVID Crash, RSI bottomed 💥 2022 → Bear Market, RSI again flagged a major drop 📉 2023 → Healthy correction, price respected trendline support 2025? → RSI flashing oversold, price testing the long-term trendline again. 📊 RSI is approaching the same low levels as the previous two macro shocks — is this a signal of another reversal opportunity? Or could this time be different? 🚨 If we break below this trendline convincingly, it could open the door for a deeper bear leg. But if we hold, we might just see another bounce-back rally like in 2020 and 2022. 📈 Watch for confirmation: A strong bounce with bullish RSI divergence = potential long Breakdown + volume spike = more downside ahead Let’s see if the trendline holds up — it has for 5 years… 👀 #SP500 #Correction #BearMarket #RSI #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketUpdate #2025Outlook #StockMarketIdeas
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by SmartSignalss
Party's OverDow Futures daily forming a downwards channel with price targets potentially down to 34k and 31k. These drops would be about 20-40% which is considered a true market crash. The falling wedge pattern plays out until potentially June of 2027, but wedges from the top of the range are dangerous as they can turn into bull traps. - Economic fundamentals have been disconnected from the financial system for some time but as the underlying economy begins to falter (ex. unemployment wave) markets begin to price in data such as falling retail sales. - President Trump is going through with mass layoffs in the Federal Government which creates unemployment as the private sector has been going through layoffs and has halted actual new hiring since 2023. - As more traders have become accustomed to "bad news is good news," they will most likely be wiped out trying to buy dips or chase false breakouts doing what they have always done. - Tariffs regionalize trade which make global economies and supply chains less interconnected. A global economy that is also very levered up on USD denominated debt needs dollar liquidity to continue to function. By regionalizing trade that liquidity is starved which can lead to financial problems on a global scale if not handled carefully. - Markets are likely to price in these risks over the next 2-3 months leading asset prices and interest rates lower. Expect individual companies to do well at times but then rotate to others while the Dow index itself falls. - Even if the Dow were to play out the wedge during 2026, without significant improvements to the global financial system expect that move to be a bull trap or a best lead to minimal gains without a new wave of monetary inflation.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by CrashoutCapital
1
Bearish Reversal Incoming? Key Resistance Holds as Price StallsAfter analyzing multiple timeframes, we observe that the price has surged significantly and is now trading within a key resistance zone. The resistance remains strong, and the RSI across multiple timeframes is in the extreme overbought territory, showing bearish divergences. Additionally, despite the sharp rally, the price has not undergone any meaningful correction. Considering these factors—strong resistance, the proximity to a weekly trendline, extreme overbought conditions, and bearish divergence—along with the presence of a hanging man candlestick at resistance, a correction is likely. Our correction targets are the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels.
Short
by SpicyPips
HelenP. I Gold will correct to trend line and continue to riseHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. Earlier, the price was moving inside a consolidation range between 2955 and 2880 points. It tested the support zone multiple times, specifically the area between 2865 and 2880, before making a strong bullish reversal. After bouncing from Support 2 at the 2880 level, Gold began a confident upward movement. It broke through the resistance zone and exited the consolidation pattern, forming a clear uptrend and respecting the trend line throughout the rise. As the price climbed, it reached Support 1 at the 3055 level and paused briefly, consolidating near the support zone between 3055 and 3070. This zone held well, acting as a base for further growth. From there, the price made another upward impulse, reaching the 3125 area before pulling back slightly for a local correction. Currently, Gold is trading above the trend line and remains within a bullish structure. The recent reaction from the support zone confirms buyer strength and interest in higher levels. Given the previous impulse, the trend line support, and price action above key zones, I expect XAUUSD to continue rising toward the 3180 points, my current goal. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FirstNameHelen
9