EURUSD Analysis - Will Correct UpwardWelcome back! Here's an analysis of this pair!
**EURUSD - Listen to video!
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Correctivemove
EURCHF | Perspective for the new weekAfter moving over 350pips in our direction since my last speculation on this pair (see link below for reference purposes); the breakdown of the Demand zone which has held price "Supported" in the last 70 days was finally broken to the downside giving rise to a "quick" counter-trend opportunity in the coming week(s).
Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish )
Structure: Supply & Demand | Breakdown | Trendline
Observation: i. The Bullish run that began mid-February 2021 and peaked @ Fr1.11500 appears to be going through a Corrective phase.
ii. The Breakdown of Fr1.09800 during last week trading session signals the seller's strength at this juncture in the market.
iii. With Bearish tendencies "screaming" since Breakdown, I am of the opinion that a potential new Supply level around Fr1.0200/1.09800 shall crystallize in the coming week.
iv. A comfort entry after a further Breakdown/retest of Key level @ Fr1.09500 in the coming week(s) should trigger confirmation with the aim of testing Bullish Trendline (Check the weekly chart below).
v.This been said, there is also a possibility that the Bullish trendline on the weekly chart might be broken (considering the long-term bearish perspective) hereby welcoming an opportunity to add position at retest... Trade consciously! :)
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 130 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:4
Potential Duration: 5 to 10days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
BTC - H1/M15 - IN A SHORT TERM BEAR TREND....H1 : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement filled @ 49201 (intraday low so far @ 49000)
Last candle (bullish engulfing) might trigger a recovery
In order to invalidate the ongoing bearish price action, BTC needs to recover
above MBB currently @ 50784 and also above the downtrend line resistance.
On the downside, clouds zone should be watch as the first support area.
M15: Below the clouds and below MBB, looks like a corrective move in a short term bear
trend.
Watch MBB @ 50374 as the first significant resistance level to break.
A failure to hold above 49000 (today's low) would put the focus on clouds support
zone (48500-48000) ahead of 47069 (March 2nd low).
BTC - H4 - The trend is your friend...H4 : 3 failures to reverse the ongoing bearish price action
Downtrend is still intact in this time frame
For the time being any upside move should be seen as a corrective move only and use as a SELL on rally opportunity
calling for lower levels.
Watch MBB as leading indicator, bullish above and bearish below
Have a nice evening...
BTC - D1 - Kijun-Sen worked so far pertectly wellD1 : As expected and mentioned in my yesterday's post, a recovery took place, triggering an upside move towards an intraday high of 33'869
which roughly filled my first target of 33'915 (Kijun-Sen).
No change in my view, BEARISH STRATEGIC VIEW, and only a move above :
1) Kijun-Sen (KS) @ 33915
2) Tenkan-Sen (TS) @ 34247 (34407 being the 38.2 % Fib ret on H4 - 37874-28800)
3) Mid Bollinger Band (MBB) @ 36060
would neutralise the current downside risk and force to a view reassessment of my bearish expected scenario.
Watch development on H4, still on a corrective move, downtrend and below the clouds !
Watch H1 for entering in a tactical position countertrend in a very, very short term time horizon
Weekly closing tomorrow will give additional clue for next week.
USDCAD Bearish Outlook 4HRWill be on the lookout for shorts on USDCAD.
Get ready for the next wave down.
Just ignore if price continues to correct higher.
Price could continue to correct for much longer,
but so long as it does that will not change the overall bearish outlook.
Trade with care my friends :)
Chf/Jpy sell updateCHF/JPY is normally a pair to just stay the hack away from, But when I see a gartley, a pitchfork, and the 200 MA on weekly all converging, you have my attention. Especially when it made a corrective move up to it within the range of a possible larger corrective pattern with potential of breaking the low. Could have already taken some nice pips off the table on this one a couple times since I posted it. But you have to understand that harmonic patterns can expand, and MA's and pitchforks are meant to be broken. There is divergence, but I also see the possibility of some room up on higher time frames as far as overbought is concerned, but the divergence can throw that off, I'm all about patterns and price action. Maybe we get it, maybe we don't. Maybe we get a huge wick on weekly, so you have to know how to enter and manage a trade to profit and protect your investment. I would have liked to have seen a more confirmative looking 5 wave on this leg up on 4 hr for purpose of overall potential pattern on the daily/weekly. Regardless looking strong for a longer term sell. I am going to do a weekly outlook video so I will stop posting to save for the better overall week setups... beforehand. Beforehand is always better right? Be careful guys, NFP week so going for swings early in the week can be fairly fruitless, but finally gonna get some real news drivers starting to happen, so be ready.
BTC - Nice Corredtive Pattern15m chart has divergence between price and RSI.
Remember, divergence can be seen by comparing price action and the movement of an indicator.
If the price is making higher highs, the oscillator should also be making higher highs. If price is making lower lows, the oscillator should also be making lower lows.
If they are not, that means price and the oscillator are diverging from each other.
Which is why it’s called “divergence.”
Just because you see a divergence, it doesn’t necessarily mean you should automatically jump in with a position.
EUR/GBP - Breakdown of structureThe same pattern is visible on all GBP-crosses this morning. Strong counter trend impulsive move closing below/above swing high/low, indicating the counter trend players have had enough and want to see a stronger pound.
If this structure holds and we see a pullback towards the short-term corrective structure top I am looking to go short around 0.89930, targeting 0.89700 primarily and thereafter the incoming support zone around 0.89150-0.89320.
USD/CHF - Closing in on a long term resistance zoneEven though we are getting close to a daily resistance zone I think there is a short-term upside potential. The latest bull run has been almost uninterrupted by the bears and they most likely won't be able to stop it with just one try. So expect increasing volatility before this thing turns around.
For now I am looking to get long if price makes it back to the bottom of the short-term corrective structure around 0.98900 with my first target around 0.98900 and my secondary target all the way up at the top of the resistance zone around 0.99400.
If we don't get the pullback I am waiting for = No trade.
EUR/AUD - Signs of possible bullish continuationThe pair has been testing the 1.4580 level for 4 times without being able to penetrate it. The last reaction was pretty forceful followed by a corrective structure. If this structure holds and we see a retrace back into the bottom I am willing to go long, targeting 1.4760 as a primary target and 1.4850 as a secondary one.
Since we are in a ranging environment this will be a lower probability trade though.
EUR/CAD - Structure hinting of a new bullish moveThe sideways corrective structure is hinting that the buyers are still interested in this pair and are just taking a break. If the bottom of this structure holds I am looking to go long with my first target being the top of the structure and my second target around 1.4860-1.4870.
GBPUSD : What's happening & what to expect ?Hey Guys,
You all know I don't use complex elliott waves and have my own rules for doing wave counts & I keep those counts as simple as possible. From last week, most of us are confused whats happening with GBPUSD, even in chat rooms there is heavy discussion on gbpusd. When I opened the Gbpusd, ( Note: I was already annoyed with last week), So I skipped & said to Myself "Ok,next pair ". Before moving to next pair I noticed the wave count and once I did the wave count, it all made sense to Me ( kinda sunshine), ok the chance is here. This is what I feel now.
Wave (v) completes right at the historical low and while I'm typing the price moved below the lows, may be it will retrace back if elliots are to work. So, look for patterns in lower timeframes (15mins) and bullish reversal signals around the GBPUSD low zone and plan your trade carefully. Be really careful while trading bcos it can breakdown or come up along with corrective waves beginning, if later happens, yea that will be awesome...
We have equal amount of chances to be Right or to get wrong !
Important Note : Don't expect immediate reversal or Entries based on small bullish candles in ( 1min,5min,15min) is highly risky, so better avoid that kind of entry's. Wait for proper pattern setup (15mins) or clear bullish reversal on minimum hourly before getting in. No hurry's , capital protection is our Primary Aim !
EUR/GBP - Change in order flowThe bullish mid-term trend seems to be coming to an end. Price has created a new lower low and is now consolidating within a small corrective structure which I assume will be followed by a new strong move south. Was not able to get in before the London open but am hoping for a retest of the small resistance zone and am aiming for 0,86100 as a primary target and my extended target area will be 0,85800.