Correctivewave
Brazil's Ibovespa Soon To Enter Grand Supercycle Wave 3With the recent plunge in the international markets, Brazils Ibovespa is soon to reach Wave 2 bottoming territory and should stage Grand Supercycle Wave 3 next.
Com a recente queda nos mercados internacionais, o Ibovespa deve em breve chegar no território de fundo de onda 2(Grande Superciclo) e em seguida encenar a onda 3 de Grande Superciclo
Suporte fortíssimo no fundo da onda II da (V)
GBPAUD - ShortAlready short on this pair. But i think a lot of further downside is incoming.
Going to see what happens and what kind of reaction we get at the trend support.
Once we reach the trend support i will bring my SL to break even and hopefully we get a corrective pattern at the support then continue lower, if that doesn't happen then i can only see it moving higher.
Lets see how it all plays out
US30 @30K?!? Path to ATH: Lower Before Higher; Ride the RailsChart says all. US 30 trending in pitchfork straight railroad track pattern. Bear signal on 12/30/19; comes at or near completion of 5-wave Elliott impulse.
Expect Bear down until it taps the lower rail; a bounce from there into Springtime will finish at 30K, intersection of top rail. Short until ABC completes; then all-in Long.
This isn't investing advice; trade at your own risk! GLTA!
Elliott Wave View: SPX Correction in ProgressShort term Elliott Wave view on S&P 500 (SPX) suggests the rally from August 6, 2019 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure. On the chart below, we can see wave 3 of the impulsive move ended at 3155.32. Wave 4 pullback is currently in progress as a double zigzag before the rally resumes. Down from 3155.32, wave (a) ended at 3110.78 and wave (b) rally ended at 3124.53. Index then resumes lower in wave (c) and ended the zigzag move at 3070.33. This zigzag move also completes wave ((w)) in higher degree.
Index should now bounce in wave ((x)) to correct the decline from November 28 high before turning lower again. As far as pivot at 3155.32 stays intact, Index has scope to extend lower to continue correcting in wave 4 as a double zigzag. Wave 4 typically ends around 23.6 – 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of wave 3. This area comes at 3040 – 3084. The Index has already reached 23.6 Fibonacci retracement at 3084, so technically it has met the minimum requirement to end wave 4. However, we are still calling a double zigzag in wave 4 as far as rally fails below 3155.32. If pivot at 3155.32 gives up, it suggests the Index has ended wave 4 as a zigzag, and Index then would be already in wave 5 higher.
EURUSD updateSo guys its been a while since this pattern showed up on the radar...
Still bullish bias
Clusters at ab=cd and the 23.6% retracement, indicates that the buyers should be stepping in to the market around these levels, especially when you see how price reacted.
Besides that, its not a bad idea to go in the direction of a harmonic pattern after a pullback to 38.2%...
You should know that harmonic patterns is but Elliot corrective waves. This then leads to the opportunity of getting in at motive wave 2.
Still I would not recommend that you blindly place your entries around these levels, since Elliot waves are very complex and most of the times you are not looking at a fresh wave count.
Dont forget to like the chart if you enjoy the analysis and make sure you comment your thoughts below!
God bless and happy trading
Elliott Wave View: GDX Rally Remains CorrectiveShort term Elliott Wave view on Gold Miners ETF (symbol: GDX) suggests it is now correcting cycle from November 1, 2019 high (28.22) as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Decline from November 1 high (28.22) ended wave A at 25.98 as a 5 waves impulse. Wave ((i)) of A ended at 27.65 and bounce in wave ((ii)) of A ended at 28.05. Index then resumed lower in wave ((iii)) of A towards 26.02 and wave ((iv)) of A ended at 26.43. Finally, wave ((v)) of A ended at 25.98.
Wave B bounce is now in progress as a double three. Up from 25.98, wave ((w)) ended at 27.50 as a zigzag. Wave (a) of ((w)) ended at 27.09, wave (b) of ((w)) ended at 26.44, and wave (c) of ((w)) ended at 27.50. Wave ((x)) pullback ended at 26.14 and wave ((y)) of B is unfolding as another zigzag. Expect the ETF to find support in short term pullback for further upside to end wave ((y)) of B. Expected area for wave ((y)) of B comes at 27.6 – 28 to end cycle from Nov 12 low before the ETF extends the decline or pullback in 3 waves at least.
ORBEX: EURAUD Correction Likely To Lead To Further Upside!EURAUD could move higher to complete minor wave 2 above 1.6800 levels. Before continuing higher, it is necessary to complete the minute correction that started at 1.6800 top.
With a low at 1.618% FE at 1.5900 round level, which is also a double bottom level, the correction could have either ended as a single zigzag or has another bearish leg down between 1.59-1.55.
Look for a valid break above 1.6300 top but before reaching there focus on whether a potential upside is limited to 1.6240 -the 50% FR of 1.6435-1.6045 (minute x wave top to current low price).
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
EURJPY SHORTPrice is under the 200 EMA on Daily, which shows that price is still in a downtrend.
Price is in an overbought area on the RSI, this suggests exhaustion.
Completion of a harmonic pattern would now suggest price to go short.
There is also an Elliot Wave and a Corrective wave which has been completed. This also now suggests price to go bearish.
SPY from here: Not an expert wave counter by any means but can't make anymore sense out of price action then some sort of textbook impulse wave up from January 2019 into some type of flat pattern. I keep thinking triangle of some sort but not sold on that. It also doesn't appear to be an ending diagonal nor in the A position as a leading unless I'm missing a bigger picture. Well we'll see what happens. Either way I expect a break-down of some sort before any new higher-highs are made especially if we want some sort of Santa Claus rally come December. Cheers.
Short Term Bitcoin Prognosis, Corrective Wave Down To ~7.2k We seem to be in a bearish pennant, a measured move sets us down at 7.2k, directly correlating with my past Gann projection.
A short corrective wave should follow to the upside should follow, ~8.8k-9.2k depending on the time frame.
Good luck and safe trading.
ORBEX: EURNZD - Will This Correction Increase Long Bets?It looks like the corrective minuette wave ii completed or it's going to complete its bearish course near 1.7156/1.7300. The recent attempt to push prices down brought the pair lower where a subminute ,otive wave can be expected. This would add to validation components that could have minuette iii completed. SHould that effectuates, participants could look at the completion of minute iii, and perhaps minor 3.
As part of the correction, we can also expect a more complex decline. However, so far market structures hint to a simple corrective formation.
The current decline could go down to 1.70 without getting invalidated. This would form a complex flat pattern with the minute ii being shifted.
The short-term opportunity would be invalidated below1.7156 with short-term signs of failure appearing below 1.73 (unless if this turns to the upside any moment)
Can also expect a double bottom at minuette ii
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
EURJPY corrective wave C.EURJPY is showing potential for some upside movement into my daily order block, with my target being the EQ.
I will be waiting for a small retracement in price to around 117.90 before entering this trade.
Once price has reached my target, then I will be looking for potential long term short set ups back down to 115.00 region and maybe further.
NDX: no impulse up off August low. Expect lower pricesThe NASDAQ100 (NDX) broke below its August 22 high and therewith invalidated its potential to do five (i, ii, iii, iv, v) waves up off the August lows. Instead it became only three: corrective. Namely, when a new move starts, even if it is five waves up or down, we can never know beforehand with all certainty if that move is an impulse (wave-1 of a 1,2,3,4,5 move) or part of a larger correction (wave-A of an ABC move). See my tweet here for example. Hence, why we must label such initial advance as wave-1/a, the retrace as wave-2/b, and the subsequent advance as wave-3/c, until one (1,2,3) or the other (a,b,c) is disproved by the markets. In this case the impulse was disproved as price overlapped with wave-i/a meaning the current decline can not be a wave-iv and so there will be no wave-v and thus thus the entire rally was a wave-a,b,c UP. Simple! In addition the wave-iii/c was only seven waves up, which means it is corrective as impulses travel in 5,9,13, etc waves. Another line of evidence pointing towards the recent rally having been corrective and not impulsive.
Now that we have proper, intellectually honest Elliott wave labeling out of the way, lets look at the bigger picture options. Price can do a nice c-wave down into the orange target zone based on the standard c=a to c=1.618x a Fibonacci extensions and as long as it doesn't move below the June low it can still be a larger wave-ii of an even larger 3rd wave. IF it breaks below the June low, and especially in a five waves down move, then we have a lower low on our hands. In addition price can then not be in a (red) wave-ii anymore because 2nd waves can't go below the start of the prior same degree 1st wave, and we are then looking for a much, much larger ongoing correction, which I would label as major wave-c of Primary-IV, well into 2020.
Trade safe!