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Correctivewave

US 30 ?Fake Breakout: Volume not ConfirmingToday's 400pt lift in Dow was unconfirmed by volume which declined as price rose. VOLUME DIVERGENCE violates basic Dow Theory: The session volume in each day's trading reveals nearly all the session volume was traded before the thin air lift at the end of day. A move against trend must be confirmed by increasing volume to be a true trend change, else it is merely a countertrend movement. Expect this rally to fail and return to consolidate around price rotation area. Failure will likely lead to capitulation & panic-selling break down. I could be wrong, but I'm buying a single put Wednesday to test my theory! This is not investment advice, trade at your own risk and good luck!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
2
US Equities in ABC Correction: SPX Starting up 'B' LegLast week's downleg was too deep and overlapping previous waves to be a '4'; the high on 29 Aug at 2916 was therefore the end of a (v); and we are in an ABC down trend. The pattern is more evident in US 30- see related post. Here Sand P formed a narrow descending chop channel, tightly defined, which appears to have found a bottom around 2864-2870. Fibo 0.618 for a popup brings us back to 2896, about 20 pts below the high price of 2816. Could it bull higher? Of course, it can always get higher; John Maynard Keynes: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." But this is a correction countertrend reaction, not an actionary bullish impulse. 'B' will peter out rather quickly, I imagine. Doubtful whether it will get above the 2916 high. This is not advice, it's a fun educational post. Good luck.
SP:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
Bitcoin Analysis Looking Forward 10 Days1. Introduction 2. Elliott Wave Count 3. Correction 4. Conclusion 1. Introduction The problem with Elliott Wave Theory is it's extreme subjectivity. Finding an exact wave count & forecast is extremely difficult; E.W.'s are subject to error when projecting targets considering there are several different places they can eventually end. If by chance you have mastered the count as a trader you watch for the typical ending point but the move is always affected by a number of factors including volume, strength, and black swan events. In my trading career I have stayed away from using E.W.'s as a signal indicator, I typically do not rely on them for trades but lately I have been working on a way to confirm the strength & length of a wave that I will not be explaining today as it is lengthy. But, I will at some point in the near future be putting everything I am doing on E.W.'s into one single indicator & system for public sale. Until then, my analysis will factor the system in but not rely on it nor be explained. Again, Elliott Wave Theory is still subjective even with a low strike rate confirmation system. Keep in mind when using E.W.'s you must be fluid in your projection and capable of admitting you were wrong on certain variations and adjust accordingly. Also, never stop using your basic trading and analysis rules just because a wave conflicts with other data. 2. Elliott Wave Count Using the 4 hour to get an expanded view of our larger time frame moves we completed a intermediate 5 wave push as labeled. There is a larger wave taking place simultaneously that peaked impulse 3 at the same point of the intermediate wave endpoint labeled (5). Logically, this is a reversal point for those impulses and a corrective wave must be looked at. 3. Correction Based on E.W., rules the larger E.W. move has a landing place for wave 4 shown on the chart in the bluish box on the right. However, as mentioned above E.W.'s can have multiple landing points, shown there is a typical wave 4 end point based on E.W. rules. There are extended waves that can be confirmed thru logical assumptions and confirmation of other factors which I will get into. Looking at the intermediate wave that finished its 5 wave sequence, I've examined the major support levels & other factors on multiple time frames and concluded that the corrective wave shown (A)(B)(C) is the most logical path being shown. Indicator Confirmation Our first pause was directly above the 38.20% fibonacci retrace point. (Fib levels are not an exact science either FYI) What I am looking for here is for the RSI & Stochastic to cool down and reveal chop action for a while within the yellow box shown then break down to the yellow box below completing corrective wave (A). The Guppy Multiple Moving Averages (GMMA) needs to correlate with price action and pull itself out of oversold conditions also. The sideways/chop action will do so & offer a bit of relief there before continuing downward. Taking a look at our volume indicators and more particularly the On Balance Volume, we see a heavy decrease in buying from that dip. On the O.B.V., sitting at the horizontal line in yellow we can trace past price action and see that price levels were not maintained at this O.B.V. level. The logical place to assume the end of wave (A) is past price levels at this point on the O.B.V. which ranges in the lowest yellow box shown where wave (A) ends. The horizontal blue line on the O.B.V. indicator is where I speculatively see the corrective wave ending due to the peak of the prior O.B.V. range. Corrective wave (B) is difficult to map out accurately. That I am leaving fluid as price action develops and wave A ends. Wave (C) took some convincing for me to place. I typically like to see a retrace point at 61.80% on the fibonacci for a satisfied correction. Matching that with the larger typical wave 4 ending point I see corrective wave 4 being a slightly extended wave with both wave 4 and the (A)(B)(C) finding an end point in the green box at the bottom. This end point would line up with E.W. rules, but also is verified through the Volume Profile (Right side) value area and prior consolidation range. 4. Conclusion Elliott Wave Theory is exactly that, a theory. Not absolute or undeniable. As with all trading strategies and indicators nothing is absolute. However, technical analysis requires you to take all data present and confirm it through multiple data sets and inputs. As I begin to explore more ways to do analysis in my trading career I find something every few years that allows me to fine tune and expand my accuracy with my analysis. I believe there is a method that is rarely used to place E.W.'s correctly. That being said, they are still subjective no matter the accuracy of placement with E.W.'s when following their data-set rules. It also requires a lot of focus and analysis to properly identify and accurately project the moves that doesn't always play out due to their subjective nature & complexity, not to mention any unpredictable events that may occur. As with any setup, there is a proper way to trade. None of the trade opportunities are detailed in this, there is more to trading than just seeing entries and exits and placing orders without considering proper entry and other factors including E.W.'s subjective nature. As the price action continues I will try my best to update publically the trades I am taking and the proper entry, stop loss, and take profit for each swing. If this plays as I have detailed and support holds, then I have several visible factors I have been searching for to confirm the bottom of our bear market and the beginning of a bull market. I will update those in a later post that is more detailed on the overview of our correction cycle. Thank you for reading and please be sure to click like on this analysis. Thank You! This is not financial advice, this is simply my personal analysis of the current conditions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Nick_Core
40
WXY Correction still in progress- Danger Will Robinson!In a WXY 3-3-3 corrective wave we expect 2 more waves in our chart to complete the formation. Today Dow touched the midline of channel shown in pitchfork, but 0.382 Fibo could be a bottom, but rarely is. In the cup-and-Handle formation we expect a decline to reach ~0.50 Fibo of cup, still a bit shy and looking for prices in the mid- 24800s. We might be in for more volatility followed by choppy consolidation, look out traders- be cautious! This is not investment advice it's just for education. Good luck!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
4
Dow in correction wave XYZ; expect lower soonThis is a 3-3-3 corrective wave pattern forming. Looks like we had 3 strong down waves in 'W'; 3 smaller up waves today for an 'X'; The 'Y' should start very soon, will likely open with a gap down and should carry index to near same decline as 'W' or ~520 points to 24818. I do not see an ABC pattern here, as there are no 5 wave impulses in the W or X waves. As always I am not an investment advisor, and this is not advice, it's for education and amusement. Good luck!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
2
SPX: Forming Minute Wave 2 or Reactive B WaveExpect possible brief reaction to Friday's selloff. If a Minute Wave 2 forms it would suggest a full and deeper corrective minor wave Y in my WXY pattern (omitted for clarity- see links below), with a 5 wave impulse. Minor Wave WXY is part of larger intermediate wave 12345, now forming the intermediate wave 4, not shown, in turn part of larger primary corrective wave D since Jan break. Alternative hypothesis: continued breakdown from Friday closing price is also quite possible (arrow down from triangle in chart), this scenario would suggest formation of a simpler ABC corrective countertrend wave. Because of the complex and powerful actionary waves in July and early August, wave theory favors formation of a complex corrective impulse, but let's see what we get. We will only know the true nature of the reactionary wave after the pattern unfolds. Watch for the pivots. Trying to profit from minute waves is risky and chancy. As always my amateur analysis is for education and entertainment and does not constitute professional investment advice. Good luck!
SP:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
1
S&P 500 Set To Pull Back For Remainder of WeekThe S&P 500 is set to drop over the next 3 days. Based on Elliott Wave Theory application. Based on my calculations, the index should bottom out around 2767.51 during the middle of the day on Friday July 20, 2018. This is a quick and slight pull back. We are in the final stages of the 9 year bull market and playing every dip will certainly pay off. I expect the index to rise mightily through September before the last minor pullback occurs. After November we could be in for the massive correction and bear market forecasters have huffed and puffed about for years.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
DOW Bearish Ascending Triangle Forming Elliott Correction Wave BFellow traders, here is my updated idea on what the Dow might be in for, given unfolding patterns- although small Elliott 'microwaves' have appeared in the past week, they are chaotic and unreliable; instead we have what looks like a truncated flat contracting 'B' wave in A-B-C Elliott Wave correction; An argument can be made for a minor 1-2-3 impulse over past week ending on 7-06 with a small subwave 3; if it really is, then a wave 4 sharp pullback is expected (since wave 2 was so flat, by alternating wave theory any 4th wave will be sharp), possibly back to 24240, but not below wave 1 top, which was quite weak; if we see this, it begs for a 5th wave impulse to retest 245 resistance; estimating possible high of 24680 = Fibo 0.618, unless it also truncates; R2 at 247 will be fiercely tenacious. I favor the following argument instead, and I fear any rise significantly above 24540 is unlikely, given price action, patterns and the miasmic market milieu: A bearish ascending triangle is forming now in the pennant at base of Dow flagpole Wave A, colored in chart: Wave A cut 1400 off index and instead of a robust Wave B to form a right shoulder, as many of us anticipated, we got the pennant- a very bearish formation with strong R at 24500, now tested x4; these are typical continuation patterns for downtrend The closing Dow price on 7-06 of 24457 is just 10 points under the 0.50 Fibo retrace for the ascending wedge from which it broke down- typically we expect break from asc-wedge to react up to 1/2 wedge height; now it has (NB: NOT the A wave drop height--> use the wedge height = 25401 - 23531 = -1870, expect 0.50 rise to 23531 + 935 = 24,466!) When break down from pennant ascending triangle comes, it is expected to typically fall equal to or even greater than the drop down flagpole (=> -1400, expect 23054 or lower is possible) The rapidly closing triangle suggests that breakdown will arrive on or before 07-13 Wave C of an A-B-C Elliott bearish wave cycle is the strongest and most bearish corrective reaction wave, expect panic selling to begin when S1, reaching back to October 2017, is breached; this could easily drive index under 23K - possibly as low as 21800 at S2 reaching to Aug 2017 Wave D reaction to Wave C is shown as pure hypothetical, as a possible 0.618 Fibo rally to 23931 in August (given C pivot at 23054); what actually happens after C remains to be seen Wave E may or not materialize, it can be truncated, but if it does appear, it will bear down hard - a real crash (thank the Donald if it breaks under 20K!). Recovery anticipated as a Elliott 1-2-3-4-5 wave motive impulse to carry index back to the long trendline reaching back to 2010, possibly beginning after mid-term elections in November. Estimates for index shown are purely hypothetical approximations, based on Fibos and possible supports. I do not make predictions, only forecasting possibles based on wave theory, which is sometimes quite erroneous. Feedback and constructive criticism is always welcome! Good luck to all of us.
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
2
Elliott Wave B subwave 3 forming short squeezeBig downdraft from 25402 -> 24407 knocked 1395 pts off Dow for correction wave A. Reaction wave B ongoing now completed subwave 1(up), 2 (down) with the green hammer Doji Monday. Shown in more detail in this idea. Subwave 3 can carry index as high as 24686 before Wave 4 reaction retraces, possibly as low as 24440, but not below subwave 1 top. Subwave 5 can carry index as high as 24948 on Fibo 0.618 retrace but higher unlikely given strong R at 25k. Possible lower high on 13 July. Once subwave 5 completes, the bullish impulse will exhaust and Main Correction Wave C will begin another downdraft to around 21800, possibly lower.
DJ:DJILong
by DaddySawbucks
BTC Corrective wave nearing endAnalyzing BTC price movements from the top as corrective waves A,B,C,D,E. The small red box is where I anticipate our higher low to end up. I believe the next few days are crucial in determining overall game plans and hoping for the higher low scenario to play out, as opposed to a new low... If downward E slope breaks through the positive support slope then it leaves a lot for the bears to work with, as there's a lack of support after 65 and 6k. This set up has been playing out well for the last 2 months... Again, I expect a trend change to happen in the coming 3-10 days. 68/69 as my lower high prediction, hopeful for a 7k low to hold, but not confident the wave is over until we touch that positive support slope inside the red zone.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CNotes1234
DAX Short. H&S, descending triangle, Elliot wave count BEARISHNow, there are several bearish patterns that have emerged in the DAX chart. The 5-wave count and the H&S pattern with a descending triangle are all very bearish signs showing the correction is not over yet, and there is still plenty of room to fall for the DAX. Look to enter a trade after the break of the descending triangle pattern, which is also sitting at the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which, when broken, will help accelerate the plunge. My price targets are somewhat conservative, although I am forecasting a large move. My price target 1 is simply at the 0.618 Fibonachi level, which is one of the more significant fib levels. I arrived at my price target 2 by applying the tendency for triangles to breakout to the size of their left boundary. If you are feeling pretty bon vi von, you could look to the 0.786 fib level for a possible target 3 at $24.01 This trade has multiple, strong pattern indicators showing it has a high probability, and using a few ticks above the lower triangle support pattern as a stop loss, it has a fantastic risk/reward ratio of 15 as well. This could take quite some time to develop, but things will move quickly once the 0.382 retracement / triangle support pattern is broken, so a OTM put option buy at that time could be quite profitable.
NASDAQ:DAXShort
by Bullish_Harambe
1
Bitcoin Analysis: Weekly Bearish TK Cross & Full Trend Overview First off let me say I am not a fan of Elliott Waves, now I know some traders rely solely on E.W. but as time goes on and they gain more experience those analysts will eventually come to the same conclusion as I have. Elliott Waves are subjective , I rely on very little wave analysis, I do take it into account, but I never base a trade solely on them. That being said if Elliott Waves were exact we still have another leg down in our corrective trend, these are roughly placed as Bitcoin's nature does not always fit into E.W. theory. Honestly I am not satisfied with the placement of the end of wave A as its placement changes many factors. Please realize this is not something to rely on as a predictive method. The rules of Elliott's are exact in some sense but at the same time they are not, before all the Elliott Wave maximalists start huffing & puffing, keep in mind Elliott Waves are typically recognized after they have passed. Please see articles like this to understand my experience with them: forextradingstrategies4u.com That is all on Elliott Waves for now, I may do a tutorial on them once I do some more important educational lessons. Weekly Overview (above) As mentioned prior in several of my past ideas, if we close below the 50 period Moving Average then we are due for another leg down. We closed below it yesterday and also saw the Tenkan-Sen cross the Kijun-Sen creating a Bearish T.K. Cross . The last time this happened was in May of 2014. At the time we were at $650 & ended up dipping to $150, the market was a completely different market then and the amount of attention on Bitcoin from the rest of the world cannot even be compared. My point is, it has been awhile. This is useful to know because we are almost repeating that time frame exactly, we crossed during the C drive down, the difference was then we had some major bearish catalysts that affected the entire market and created a sense of panic. There is panic now but that C drive down ultimately went too far down into oversold territory due to different circumstances. Daily Overview (below) On the chart below we see a converging T.K. Cross below the Kumo . Again this is a bearish signal , the sell off is not typically instant however there has been time when it has. We also see where I have placed support zones as a guide. As we approach each one of those I will be watching Volume and Momentum indicators to see if we end up shortening the C drive down. Those areas will have clearer signals of a bounce (or not) as we approach them. Seen below on the second chart is a side by side comparison with the O.B.V. showing unhealthy levels. To be clear, this does NOT need to match the past price posted at that level. On Balance Volume is primarily used to confirm or identify overall price trends or to anticipate price movements after divergences. One thing to note is that some traders saw the O.B.V. trend being broken last month and assumed that was a Bullish signal of a trend reversal, the error made there by them was that pop out was simply the signalling of the B drive if we are following Elliott Waves. The T.D. sequential shows us on a red 7 on the daily (not visible because it is not zoomed in). 12 Hour Overview (below) The Chaikin Money Flow shows heavy sell pressure , there is nothing more noteworthy on this time frame . 6 Hour Overview (below) I am keeping eye on the RSI Bullish divergence here, I will update if I see some action on the RSI as this continues to form. Again volume can set this to align if sell pressure continues. .
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Nick_Core
79