Bitcoin - Slowly Rolling downOn LTF Bitcoin price still follows the SPX movements, although not with such a high degree of correlation and tends more to downside.
But the big picture (chart below) hasn't changed much - still boring ranging.
Btw, it falls before the stocks open again, I'd be caution with shorts here, because several times it quickly reverses after
Hit the "LIKE" button and follow to support, thank you,
Information is just for educational purposes, never financial advice. Always do your own research.
Correlation
LINKBTC - Bitcoin to move soon?Looks like LINK is hitting the top of the wedge. Will it drop soon vs BTC?
Linkusd is also hitting resistance and would have enough downside.
The question is, are people selling Link for BTC because of a BTC bullrun and accordingly LINK will fall vs USD, or will both btc and link drop...?
Or am I all wrong about the wedge and LINKBTC just keeps on rising?
NASDAQ Futures and Bitcoin AnalysisAs of the 10 years history of Bitcoin and Correlation between SPY or NASDAQ Indexes and Bitcoin, we could say that if bitcoin manages to range in this area, could actually be bullish for it.
the Nasdaq futures are at ATH and beyond so if these indexes are correlated with bitcoin, On the macro it could go up and break this triangle to the upside.
but this is crypto and full of traps. So if bitcoin breaks down (by closing a Daily candle below $ 9000 and $ 8600 ), it could test $ 8100 and Mid 7000s and because of Nasdaq and other bullish asset indexes, it will give an opportunity.
Bogged and planningRecently the market has bogged a lot of people. 2 fake break outs on June 10th and June 22nd. They seemed promising but S and P 500 correlation saw btc drop when indexes dropped. Thus index analysis is important for btc analysis.That being said now days the less obvious move is what the market has been doing. Things can still be bullish to a retirement to the 55ema at 8600 and 100 ema at 8450. But that would be seen as following ta so its best to adjust by having buys ladder 8200-8600 if one is bullish. This 10-12% drop would correlate with the stock indexes correcting 4-5% since bitcoin on average moves 1.5-2 times the amount the indexes do during steep corrections.Recently s and p 500 did -36 and btc roughly -72% from highs ( 14.4k to 3.8). So its a good basis to plan your trades remembering the 1.5-2 figure. And say we hit 8.3-8.4k area , we can bounce to the 9.1-9.2k area and if indexes remain bullish btc can continue its run up. If indexes cave down then a much greater move is possible with btc
MELI and SE CorrelationMercadoLibre ( NASDAQ:MELI ) and Sea Limited ( NYSE:SE ) are two highly correlated stocks in the same sector (Internet entertainment/e-commerce).
Since SE had a 50% increase in the second half of 2018 (marking the beginning of the market-cap similarities), their correlation began, and SE's large moves (or lack thereof) are highly likely to be precursors to moves from MELI, making it a rare case of a leading indicator unlike most (i.e. RSI and MACD which are lagging indicators).
As these moves take time (usually about 3-6 weeks), these plays are for multi-week/month traders who seek consistent returns. I've annotated the correlation plays within the last two years which should serve as a framework for anyone seeking to take advantage of these opportunities in the future.
TL;DR: SE and MELI are highly correlated, and, as annotated in the analysis, SE is a leading indicator for MELI generally speaking. The areas of big moves by SE are usually precursors for big moves by MELI, and areas of consolidation by SE are usually indicators that MELI's big moves will reverse. Ideal time frame: 2-6 weeks per trade.
As always, do your own due-diligence, never risk too much per trade, have your own plans and targets, and be responsible.
Chart image without volume:
VRTX - UP and Up and UPHi traders,
I have picked another market for today´s analysis. Our best shot for today can be VRTX (we just have to wait for the entry bar).
It´s a pharmaceutical company that increased the price of its stock during the Coronavirus crisis. If we compare the price with the SPY market and take the correlation into the consideration we can see that VRTX has more power to the upside than the whole Stock Market (SPY).
Correlation - negative or positive - is an important part of portfolio management. If you are LONG in 100 markets that correlates closely to the SPY, it´s almost the same as opening one big position in the SPY market. Be careful!
Good trading.
Jakub
FINEIGHT
NASDAQ H4Price has made a break & retest of the support zone turned resistance, along with breaking out of the ascending trendline showing a shift in momentum. Will be anticipating price to continue making its way down this week. This is important to watch for correlation with currency, as it has a high impact in risk on / risk off in the market.
AU/UC Negative correlationCorrelation driven by USD devaluation. AUD and CAD are both also known to strongly correlate as both economies are for a large part driven by commodity exports.
This case demonstrates how bot are very likely to break out. AUDUSD to the upside and USDCAD to the downside.
UJ Seasonality agrees..
SILVER top-down analysison WEEKLY: price is approaching a strong support/resistance zone in green so we will be looking for objective sell setups on lower timeframes. unless price breaks it upward aggressively, then we will be looking for objective buy setups on its retest.
on H4: price is trading inside our red channel (not valid yet) so we are waiting for a third swing to form around it to consider it objective and then enter on its break downward.
meanwhile, SILVER would be overall bullish.
Reviewing the correlation between Unemployment & S&P 500As the figure shows there is a clear negative correlation between U.S. unemployment and the S&P 500. Currently, we are seeing extreme highs in unemployment and the recovery will certainly take some time.
To see more reasoning for a short position, please look at my previous post on the S&P 500 (Witnessing a bubble created by people's unrealistic expectations)
EUR/USD: Correlations updatePart 2/2:
Correlations and Interest Rates: The US is on holiday today which is why the chart doesn't show an update for German / US interest rates, but the price of gold has been recently falling and shows a slight divergence with the EUR/USD spot price. A small bearish sign for the pair.
Gold down as risk on prevailsGold reached an all-time high earlier this week as it cleared the $1,750 level. It was able to reach bids at $1,765 before the US trading station started for the week. However, this rally was not sustainable as Risk on prevailed as Moderna reported positive data on early-stage coronavirus vaccine trial.
Gold retracted back down to $1,725 today as Risk on sentiment prevails in the market, most notably in the oil market. Both WTI and Brent Crude reach highs since the start of the coronavirus breaching $34 and $37, respectively, as demand for oil slowly picks up around the world. Both commodities have been susceptible to the Risk on / Risk off a dynamic that has been playing out in the markets recently. The SP500 has been stuck in a consolidation zone since the end of April, with Investors / Traders gripping onto any good news with regards to any advancements to Coronavirus vaccines.
Gold has been experiencing similar consolidation patterns as market sentiment shows genuine uncertainty with the future of the economy and global trade. This creates strong support and resistance lines within the consolidation zones that traders may trade with relative reliability. A breach of these supports and resistance may show strong positive/negative news with regards to Coronavirus vaccines. On quieter news days, traders may use these support and resistance lines for hourly and 4 hourly reversals.
However, fundamentally we may see a retest of the $1,750 level again as Tensions between the United States and Australia towards China increase. Furthermore, the possibility of a second wave is still not out of the question, and many more disappointing results with regards to Coronavirus trials are highly likely. However, CEO Pascal Soriot of AstraZeneca, a pharmaceutical company, stated that they are confident that there is a good reason for vaccine trials to work.
Are you bullish on Gold?