EUR/USD Correlations: UpdateGerman and US 2-year yield differentials provide a contrarian signal to our other analysis results, which is another sign that traders need to be cautious with the pair.
Gold (green, inverted), which trades a marginal record highs, keeps following the pair. Any USD strength could push gold price lower from current levels and cause a break below the daily support level in EUR/USD, which can be seen in the previous post.
Correlation
TradingView Comparing Mastery TutorialAs a trader, being able to effeciently compare the performance of multiple securities is an important skill. In this TradingView tutorial I will compare a stock with its main index to find out about its correlation.
You will learn:
• How to compare multiple charts using TradingView
• How to analyze and draw conclusions about the comparison of assets
• A neat hack how to turn your compare symbol on/off using a keyboard shortcut
Check out the video tutorial on YT:
youtu.be
Daily Tracker: BSV vs. BCHABCBITFINEX:BSVUSD : Strong Buy
BCHABC : Strong Sell
Educational.
FibMarketWatch.com
DXY long - Supply Demand - h4 - UPDATEHello Traders!
Quick Update on the DXY. Price pushed down a little bit on the h4 Supply Zone before. Check out the last DXY Analysis. It was possible to grab some pips therefore on the GBPUSD because in that moment GBPUSD went up. Now DXY broke the Supply Zone and it formed a Demand Zone. We can expect it to go up to the Supply Zone.
So keep an eye on EURUSD, GBPUSD for the correlation.
What can we expect:
A push to the Supply Zone and afterwards a drop. If DXY will drop we can expect EURUSD, GBPUSD to go up.
That was my Idea and I hope you liked it. Please leave a LIKE if you like the content. In the comment section you can share your view and ask questions.
Thank you and we will see next time
- Darius.
Directional Correlation with Traditional Markets + Manipulation?I am happy to see Bitcoin look bullish. Although a little disappointed to take some losses trying to catch flying knives.
What bothers me about Bitcoin is the correlation with traditional markets. To trade this market, it seems like it would be better to trade Bitcoin based off the S&P chart.
I feel like there is something wrong with this constant flow of large orders during this move. Some of the weird behavior I noticed during this entire run. There is a constant flow of 100-250k orders since this move started. The orders are triggered from Bitmix and Binance, then the other exchanges follow. I am seeing several of these orders every second each directional movement on S&P. When S&P cools down, the constant orders stop. But once S&P starts moving again, the orders start up again. Its as if there is some kind of F%#&ed up bot triggering large orders based on traditional market movements. There were a few reaction/liquid zones I marked as potential "Short" entries and none of them caused much resistance to this Bitcoin move.
Its as if Arthur Hayes & CZ are doing some sort of tag team manipulation to increase the value of Bitcoin. And funny enough, this is the most recent tweet from Arthur Hayes, "This is what happens with #bitcoin teams up with stonks. Thank you Chairman Powell. You keep hope alive!"
At one point or another, it seems logical for a significant pullback. But as long as S&P continues to rise and have the Fed backing the US markets as a whole, I will just take longs.
Thanks for taking the time to read this idea.
If you found it interesting, please support my efforts by leaving your feedback or questions below and upvote this chart.
Cheers!
These ideas are not financial advice.
Multi timeframe analysis: S&P Kiss of Death leads to BTC crash? S&P500 is forming the so called Kiss of death that is a strongly bearish signal. We saw that in the last years BTC and the major american indexes showed some correlation.
Bitcoin is approaching a really strong resistance area and in my opinion it will be bounced back and in this video I will show the Short position I will be taking with a 2.6 R/R.
Enjoy the view and let me know what you think.
Comment&share here your visions and ideas. Leave a like to support my work.
Bitcoin monthly price chart compare correation with oil and DJIBITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Bitcoin has never been correlated to nothing
BTCUSD, 1M, price chart
CC, USOIL, 20
CC, UKOIL, 20
CC, DJI, 20
When CC reaches 1, there is a perfect correlation.
When CC reaches -1, there is a perfect negative correlation.
When CC = 0, there is no correlation at all.
Bitcoin has never been correlated perfectly, or perfectly negative with crude oil, bren oil nor Dow Jones.
Bitcoin is doing is own path, despite the dreams of the hodlers, mooners and big brown bears.
This tutorial is dedicated to Tradingview "experts".
Price of oil vs Bitcoin?It looks like Bitcoin has decoupled from S&P500 and other markets, but how does it compare to commodities like oil? Are the oil prices also decoupling from markets? Do little bounces and patterns in oil also affect Bitcoin? This chart highlights a few instances of moments like that, without speculating this relationship.
BITCOIN & SP500 | THE SIMILARITY IS PRECEDENTED | NOT A HEDGE.No unnecessary words needed. The chart speaks volumes.
Bitcoin has never experienced a recession let alone a pandemic.
Bitcoin will follow and mimic the global economy so long as economic implications exist.
Main indicator for investing in Bitcoin should be the SP500, or any other equity index.
This isn't a bull market. This is a bull trap correction.
VERDICT: Bitcoin is not a hedge and will follow the broader markets until this recession/pandemic is over. Just ask yourself... why would bitcoin act differently?
BTC has one last price crash before price stabilizationIt's no surprise that BTC trails SPX performance. If the SPX takes a beating, BTC takes a beating. There has been a historical correlation between the two for some time now. That begs the question: are we ever going to see a divergence between BTC and SPX, and if so, why would it happen?
Taking a look at my chart, I performed a regression analysis on BTC prices from late 2017. Current regression analysis shows a current trend price of 9111, with SD of +1 and -1 encapsulating most historical price movements. At current, BTC is well below the 9111 trend price. The reason is as stated above - it is treated as an asset correlated with S&P prices. Running a regression on BTC prices against the SPX gives me an r value of .43, which indicates a fairly strong correlation. This means most BTC retail investors do not view BTC as a hedge against the market, but rather as a further indicator of the market; they view BTC prices as relative to the strength of the equities market. This view couldn't be further from the truth - BTC should gain value if every other market declines since it's meant to represent a free-standing 'currency.'
With that in mind, for those who think that the equities markets have yet to bottom-out, BTC also has yet to bottom-out. I do not believe that equities will remain at current valuations. Prices will continue their descent, and as retail investors cash out of equities, they will cash out of BTC, presenting BTC traders with a prime opportunity of entry. I believe it'll go as low as 4800 before it begins trending back up 9000 and beyond.
To further evidence the weakness in the current bull trend, I've shown the RSI and DMI as well as 30 vs 13 MDA. RSI is hovering around centre while ADX in DMI shows weak momentum. BTC investors are clueless about the strength of the current market. If the market was strong, they'd have no problem keeping their position. If the market is weak, they want to believe it's strong so they end up unsure - clueless. SPX is set for another price crash, and so is BTC. I'd market a good BTC entry point at 5000.
BTC | S&P 500 - Slightly pumped on initial jobless claimsRed line is futures on S&P 500.
CC indicator below is correlation between XBTUSD and S&P 500 on 15m time frame.
Initial jobless claims was released, and rose 4.43 million last week, total is more than 26 million since the coronavirus outbreak started.
S&P 500 slightly pumped as expected (as in previous times) and trying to rose higher, as well as bitcoin.
Won't be long here ('coz we're at resistance), awaiting $7250-7300 for shorts.
Hit the "LIKE" button and follow to support, thank you.
Information is just for educational purposes, never financial advice. Always do your own research.
DXY short - Supply Demand - h4, h1Hello Traders!
On DXY I could determine a Trend Line and Support Resistance. Currently DXY is dropping. I expect it drop at least to the h1 Demand Zone. Which is the blue Zone on the chart.
What can we expect:
If we are at the Demand Zone we can expect the price to go up. Then we will have the opportunity to short at the Supply Zone.
That was my Idea and I hope you liked it. Please leave a LIKE if you like the content. In the comment section you can share your view and ask questions.
Thank you and we will see next time
- Darius.
how i trade dax and get 50 point first thing in the morning i dont know how long this is going to hold
but for these days i depend on nikke 225 and AUD/JPY daily chart move to find out the daily general direction for dax
I will try to make it clear
so basically there is time delay between nikke 225 and dax 30
so when then Frankfort market ring the bell nikke 225 and aud/jpy has already been traded for 7 and 9 hour i depend on these two if they are up i go up for dax
if they go down so we will visit south , usually i take small target on this rule 50 point its working very well for me most of time finish in less than 2 hour
i also check euro performance against pound and usd dollar as euro suffer i take it as a sign to confirm dax ealry move shape .
i also fell more comfortable when i see NZD doing well against CHF , I ALSO CHECK TA125 AND IMOEX early news for good omen no more - u never know when conflict rise in middle east
so basically it demonstrated for me i advise not to use it when market start with gap unless u know what gap realy made for then u can go for it .
i like to trade correlation in general , cause even when this fail me there is Chance for dax to go 50 point in your favor before he went in the other direction against you
i use it long and short every day for less than month \ when i fell that sign are weak i dont trade with it or just go for small lot and trailing stop with 750 point space some times if i feel that its my day and my general chart for the week stick with my daily vision i go for trailing stop after my first 50 point , i like to look for them as a home work
S&P, Gold & BTC Correlation - when safe haven?For the last 6 weeks or so, there's only been one thing to trade - The Market, as everything moved up and down together, gapping violently based on news.
These daily charts show how the stock market (SPX/S&P 500) has correlated with the historical safe haven asset of gold (XAUUSD) and the promised new safe haven of Bitcoin (BTCUSDT). The red indicator at the bottom is the standard TradingView Correlation Coefficient (CC).
In the first chart, BTC - in blue - largely moved with the S&P, showing a high CC throughout the crash. Notably, it had a more extreme flash crash (crypto loves extremes), and also recovered off the bottom more quickly. These differences aside, BTC remains highly correlated with the stock market for now.
In the second chart, gold - in yellow - at first continued its rise as stocks fell, but then had a sharp selloff of its own. It's been reported that this was probably due to traders being forced to sell positions in order to avoid margin calls as equities got smashed, and that sounds reasonable to me. Since that started, gold has been very highly correlated with stocks, falling and recovering together.
In the third chart, perhaps somewhat redundantly, we can see that since March 9 or so, gold and BTC have become and stayed well correlated.
Where next?
Notably, gold has now exceeded its pre-crash high, while stocks are still down 16%. Gold is also trading well above all of its daily moving averages, while the S&P is still underneath the 89 and 200. This is at least some technical reason to think that their trajectories might be different soon.
My bias, based on fundamentals, is short equities and long precious metals and crypto. But I can't trade that until their correlation drops – until the further drop in the stock market that I think is coming panics gold investors not into selling, but buying. So I'll be watching this chart carefully.
+Obligatory "I'm not an expert, this isn't advice". Stay safe out there!
Equities to dip soon? BTC and /ES still very correlated.Last Monday, /ES blew past 2550, the "trendline-in-the-sand", making an imminent retest of 2200 fairly unlikely.
However, a trend channel is being developed with multiple signs of rejection at the top of the channel, most recently from 2800 on Thursday.
Also note that the correlation of Bitcoin and equities has been extremely high since the start of this crisis. This supports the theory that Bitcoin is treated like a risk asset by the markets. For now, if the correlation holds, it could mean that equities will reach the lower part of our channel fairly soon. A rough price target is given as 2585, or a little over 7% decline from current prices.
Disclaimer: I am not long or short this market as I do not generally trade on such short time frames. I am in a neutral position for now and am planning to get long when my target is reached.