Is Bitcoin going to follow Nokia's chart pattern?While evaluating Nokia stock I couldn't help but notice that Bitcoin could be following what Nokia's chart pattern did? What do you guys think leave comments below!
Correlation
Bitcoin and sp500 are brother for life.It's sad, but you have to see the truth in the face, the two are correlated from the beginning, they always act in the same direction. Bitcoin has never been independent until now from the stock market.
S&P, Gold & BTC Correlation - when safe haven?For the last 6 weeks or so, there's only been one thing to trade - The Market, as everything moved up and down together, gapping violently based on news.
These daily charts show how the stock market (SPX/S&P 500) has correlated with the historical safe haven asset of gold (XAUUSD) and the promised new safe haven of Bitcoin (BTCUSDT). The red indicator at the bottom is the standard TradingView Correlation Coefficient (CC).
In the first chart, BTC - in blue - largely moved with the S&P, showing a high CC throughout the crash. Notably, it had a more extreme flash crash (crypto loves extremes), and also recovered off the bottom more quickly. These differences aside, BTC remains highly correlated with the stock market for now.
In the second chart, gold - in yellow - at first continued its rise as stocks fell, but then had a sharp selloff of its own. It's been reported that this was probably due to traders being forced to sell positions in order to avoid margin calls as equities got smashed, and that sounds reasonable to me. Since that started, gold has been very highly correlated with stocks, falling and recovering together.
In the third chart, perhaps somewhat redundantly, we can see that since March 9 or so, gold and BTC have become and stayed well correlated.
Where next?
Notably, gold has now exceeded its pre-crash high, while stocks are still down 16%. Gold is also trading well above all of its daily moving averages, while the S&P is still underneath the 89 and 200. This is at least some technical reason to think that their trajectories might be different soon.
My bias, based on fundamentals, is short equities and long precious metals and crypto. But I can't trade that until their correlation drops – until the further drop in the stock market that I think is coming panics gold investors not into selling, but buying. So I'll be watching this chart carefully.
+Obligatory "I'm not an expert, this isn't advice". Stay safe out there!
Equities to dip soon? BTC and /ES still very correlated.Last Monday, /ES blew past 2550, the "trendline-in-the-sand", making an imminent retest of 2200 fairly unlikely.
However, a trend channel is being developed with multiple signs of rejection at the top of the channel, most recently from 2800 on Thursday.
Also note that the correlation of Bitcoin and equities has been extremely high since the start of this crisis. This supports the theory that Bitcoin is treated like a risk asset by the markets. For now, if the correlation holds, it could mean that equities will reach the lower part of our channel fairly soon. A rough price target is given as 2585, or a little over 7% decline from current prices.
Disclaimer: I am not long or short this market as I do not generally trade on such short time frames. I am in a neutral position for now and am planning to get long when my target is reached.
Bullish bat confirmed by a bullish engulfingHi pros!
chart talk by itself, on the other side we shorted oil. that could be interesting to enjoy both trades based on negative correlation and high probability setup (harmonic)
Latest traditional market (SPX) normalised Bitcoin (XBT) Charton the 6 hrly timeframe with CYBER ENSEMBLE {Premium} buy/sell indicator.
Continued from:
Bitcoin/Gold Ratio - Is BTC topped out in terms of Gold?Interestingly enough, the long term chart of Bitcoin/Gold - AKA how many gold oz 1 bitcoin buys you, seems to be following the issuance curve of bitcoin supply...which is going to have less and less deflation going forward, due to the principle of Bitcoin. Doesn't mean anything for the U.S dollar price of bitcoin really, just implies that gold will out perform Bitcoin in a hyper inflationary environment, contrary to what many BTC bulls believe.
What do you guys think? I am open to all ideas. This could be wrong!
Why 7500-8000 is Important for BTC & Why You Should Look at SPYHello Traders, today we look at Short and Medium-term analysis of BTC Daily chart.
Short-term:
Contrary to it's designed purpose to act like a safe haven during crysis, BTC is currently moving along with major markets. My take on this is that compared to the Stock markets, Crypto is still very young and small and more than anything fueled by fear and greed.
For the actual range, we will, therefore, need to see which direction SPY takes. BUT! this correlation can slowly fade away as traders adjust to the current situation and start thinking more rationally again.
Medium-term:
At roughly 7500 we have many converging resistance levels which, if broken, will act as new support. If the price establishes at around 7500-8000, this will be a good sign for the bulls. Note that this can take a few weeks, again based on that happens in markets in general.
Watch for manipulations and wait for extra confirmation by daily bar closing prices.
Be safe and trade well,
FINEIGHT team
Bitcoin vs S&P500 vs TASI - Correlation Coefficient Bitcoin <> Dow/S&P500 correlation is back to zero for today, it is not yet inversely correlated or confirmed to be uncorrelated either.
That would depend on its behavior in the next few months and at different sets of market conditions.
XAUUSD PLAYING A RANGE IN A SELL ZONE. As you can see in my previously XAUUSD analysis posted, Gold still playing a range in a Strong Supply Zone.
I'm expect a reversal soon, just wait for a reversal closed candle to consider a Short Position.
As a strong confirmation, we can see his correlation XAGUSD, reached his supply zone in the same timing of XAUUSD without broke it.
Demand Zones to consider as a Target as you can see are indicated in the graphic.
*Place a stop loss little bit more high than the currently resistance/support formed to don't take fake stop loss (set your stop loss at a level where it invalidates your trading setup).
Tap a LIKE if you think is a useful idea and comment below if you would share also your idea!
Please do your own research, and follow your trading plan with a properly Money Management.
AMPL / BTC CorrelationSimple Correlation Coefficient time series between AMPL/USD and BTC/USD on Bitfinex.
SPX Correlations Broken Down vs 10y yield, Oil and GoldThought it would be interesting to visualize the recent breakdown of correlation coefficients between the equity markets (SPX) vs fixed income (US10y yield) and commodities using a weekly chart and plotting the correlation coefficients vs the following: WTI oil (growth indicator) and gold (safe haven). A correlation coefficient of +1 indicates assets moving very strongly together and -1 indicates assets moving inversely (in opposite directions) to one another:
1) SPX vs 10y yield: bonds initially bid in flight-to-quality and then sold off along with other safe-haven fixed income
2) SPX vs gold: same thing, initially bid up then sold off (lots of portfolio margin calls, investors scrambling for liquidity/cash etc.)
3) SPX vs oil, correlations broke down to begin 2020, but then moved up to a very strong positive relationship into the heavy market sell off.
Updated traditional market (SPX) normalised Bitcoin (XBT) ChartNow that a new somewhat trending market structure is starting to form after the recent "blackswan" triggered dump correlated to the tradition markets, here's a re-look at the SPX normalised Bitcoin chart to look out for bullish decoupling in a time where the traditional market remains bearish.
In summary, for BTC to switch into a bullish "decoupling" phase wrt to the traditional market, the ratio needs to at least break up above the Ichicloud and finds support; at least that is where I will set my buy in point (at around 2.36, and then stop-loss at below 2.09 after).
See initial look and discussions on this experimental analysis attempt:
Hedge vehicles suffer Institutional Sell-offsThis chart compares XAUUSD (Gold, bar), S&P 500 (blue line) and BTCUSD (orange line).
After a well deserved correction, Bitcoin has been used as a low-correlation hedge vehicle for institutional investors, following its securitization in Chicago's trading floor. It is apparent from the given chart that both Gold, which is commonly conceived as a safe haven during bear market, and Bitcoin coincide in their tides until mid 2019.
From late 2019, however, the relationships transform. As institutional investors stock their access hedging balances into cryptocurrencies as safe havens, Bitcoin tends to increase in price along with the equity market. Upon market disruption, however, Bitcoin, which generally has relatively smaller daily trade volume compared to public equities, suffer significant value loss as institutional investors sell-off their hedging vehicle.
From being a low correlation investment instrument, with the entry of institutions, the cryptocurrencies are facing the same correlation-risk as any other instruments available.
None the less, the notable movement in the latest bear market is the correlation between Bitcoin and Gold, where neither of them seem to offer a proper hedge against the beta.
$AAPL still good for correlation trading Correlation trading strategy idea analysis.
In my previous posts, I showed a good possibility for correlating trading of $M.
Now I am going to show you $APPL again because of it still suitable for this strategy.
Apple has a huge weight in S&P500, so the correlation predetermined to be notable.
Look at the $SPY and $AAPL charts.
Actual corresponding support&resistance levels look so much alike.
Correlation is good enough to expect future similar moves.
There are a lot of freshly formed support&resistance levels.
So, we can find many opportunities to catch the strongly correlated move.
Following the correlation trading strategy, it is reasonable to wait for correlated level breaking.
When $SPY and $AAPL simultaneously break their resistance levels, It will be possible to buy $AAPL.
When $SPY and $AAPL simultaneously break their support levels, It will be possible to short $AAPL.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust.
You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy.
If you like my content, you can subscribe to the news and receive my fresh ideas.
Thanks for being with me!
$M can continue correlate with $SPYCorrelation trading strategy idea analysis.
The market was very volatile all the last three weeks.
There are a lot of freshly formed support and resistance levels.
Also, there are some older levels, which were formed in 2008.
So it is a very good time for correlation trading.
I showed my vision of correlated moves in my previous ideas.
Today I am going to show you a possibility of correlation trading of $M.
Now Macy's is a very cheap stock with good enough correlation with SPY.
Look on the $SPY and $M charts.
Actual corresponding support&resistance levels look so much alike.
We can expect future similar moves.
Following the correlation trading strategy, it is reasonable to wait for correlated level breaking.
When $SPY and $M simultaneously break their resistance levels, It will be possible to buy $M.
When $SPY and $M simultaneously break their support levels, It will be possible to short $M.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust.
You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy.
If you like my content, you can subscribe to the news and receive my fresh ideas.
Thanks for being with me!
DXY long, UPDATE, EXPLAINED, Market behavior, CorrelationHello Traders !
What is the DXY?
It is an index of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. The Index goes up when the U.S. dollar gains strength (value) compared to other currencies.
Why do we need to analyze it?
Actually I like to have a look on the DXY because of the Correlation. So the DXY is nice to use when we are trading XAUUSD , EURUSD , AUDUSD , GBPUSD . Usually when the DXY goes up, the mentioned pairs will go down. Just watch for example EURUSD and XAUUSD the last week and compare it with the DXY. You will see what I am talking about.
Chart Analysis:
If we are looking at the chart we can see that we dropped now from a daily Demand. We now go 2 option.
#1 - Price going up again, down, retest and then drop
#2 - Price going higher, retest the the Demand and shot up
For the final confirmation wait for Price Action to show you signals.
That was my Idea and I hope you did like it. Please leave a LIKE if you like my Content that I share with you. In the comment section you can tell my your view and ask questions.
Thank you and we will see next time
- Darius.
WIG20 and its correlation with OIL priceOver the span of 20 years WIG20 has shown high correlation with Oil price. Oil is leading so both are heading lower
Bitcoin vs Spx500 Correlation with both at Key LevelsCB's are stepping to stop the bleeding the question is can they really do it. Right now the fears of Coronavirus are finally making sense with the VIX and officials being forced 2 take any emergency actions to mitigate risks of a run away pandemic. However if any further news drops about potential risk to leadership we can be back at lows in moments. 2018 lows have hit by both Bitcoin & SPX500 both levels are key, if they can hold we may yet avoid armageddon. VIX is still very high and normal risk assumption doesn't resume till we are below 21 caution is still advised stay safe peeps on or off the charts Corona isn't over yet 😷👍
Let's talk correlations: Bitcoin and the Stock MarketCryptohopper Newsletter
Chart
Bitcoin has lost around 30% of its value since its high on February 13th 2020. At the same time the SP 500 fell over 20% around the same time. So, is there any correlation between the two markets, or is it just coincidence?
That is what we will explore in this newsletter!
Correlation or coincidence?
Throughout 2017 both cryptocurrencies and the stock markets experienced strong growth in an almost unbroken uptrend. The SP 500 grew around 20% from the beginning of the year until the year’s end. Meanwhile Bitcoin had an astonishing growth of over 1,300% in the same year. Although this seems to be a strong sign of a possible correlation between Bitcoin and the Stock market, this is just about where the correlation ends; at least for the time being.
Over the course of 2018, Bitcoin was in a steady decline until February 2019. Meanwhile the Stock market has had a small downtrend, an uptrend where it made new highs, then an even stronger downtrend until December 2018.
Afterwards, Bitcoin had a strong uptrend from February up until June but it failed to make a new high, then followed an over 50% correction, and then a short uptrend from December 2019 until February 2020. At the same time, the stock market has had an uptrend where it just made higher highs, a range, and then an even stronger uptrend where the price rose by 15% more than the previous high.
In the middle of February however, both BTC and the SP 500 started a rapid descent at the same time. Many people suspected this is due to the Corona virus outbreak.
To find out whether there really is a correlation or not between the Stock market and cryptos, we have looked at the total number of days in which both BTC and the SP 500 have been in an uptrend or downtrend simultaneously. We have thus found out that 64% of the time Bitcoin and the Stock market are both in an uptrend or in a downtrend simultaneously. This number is dragged higher due to the strong uptrend of both markets during 2017. In 2018 and 2019 there hasn’t been a strong correlation between the two markets. However in 2020, since the outbreak of the Coronavirus, both the stocks and the crypto market have been behaving very similarly.
In conclusion it is hard to tell with certainty whether the crypto market and the stock market are correlated, however there are more chances that they are correlated rather than not
GOLD(XAU/USD) SELL SETUPHey tradomaniacs,
the previous sell-off we`ve seen is a non-sense-move in terms of correlations.
As mentioned long time ago I`ve said that some of the assets has to be the lyier - Save havens such as CHF, JPY and GOLD were climbing with the previous stock-rally (Non-Sense).
Now we see another non-sense-scenario where the Gold-Market drops with the stock-market.
The only sense I see in this move is that big institutional players were forced to cash out profits to compensate losses from the "crash" in the stock-market.
Now since there is a lot of potential for the stocks to recover I see the opportunity to sell Gold down to 1.500 - 1450. This would make sense in terms of correlations.
Technically we see a wonderfull completion of the Impulse-Wave. The previous double-top could cause more bears to take action after the retest of the DT-Area.
We will see - Wild markets. :-)
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
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