Correlation
Stocks likely to continue rally Measured by US30, an index representing the 30 largest corporate enterprises of the United States of America, closed the week with the second largest green candle of the year 2019 while preceded by 2 minor red candles and another 8 larger green candles.
My guess is this rally will continue for another couple weeks. Also backed by UJ seasonality, all relevant markets seem to be in agreement for this to follow through.
The playI have this idea of that the marked points(horizontal lines) will be the key areas for determining the upcoming trend of bitcoins price movement because the areas collide as in support meets resistance and resistance meets support between GOLD & the indexes S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 whom naturally have an inverse relationship.
The reason for this thinking is because for a longer period of time i have paid attention to that when the indexes go up the market of cryptocurrency goes down and knowing that gold has a naturally inverse relationship as a form of hedge towards the traditional market i would assume identifying key points and finding a correlated area would be legitimate for making a speculative guess for the future price movement of the bitcoin.
This also means that because bitcoin moves all the other currencies in its sphere being the most dominant one all my other assumptions will revolve around either the break of the resistance for indices RED & PURPLE or the support of gold against the indices marked YELLOW
So if GOLD finds support i say there will be a reversal for bitcoins bear trend towards the bull sentiment and if Indices break the supply areas a continuation for bitcoins bear trend will emerge short to medium term.
However if any of these situations are to be played out i am biased to that GOLD will be favored in its area because of the recent news revolving around the financial markets and break of chart patterns.
Please do give me a like and or a follow as i will be updating these charts if you want to follow its development!
SPX500USD D1Price has been following a range for some time now, testing both the top & bottom of the range 3 times, closing on Friday with a bearish engulfing break below the range support. Will be watching for a retest of broken support as new resistance next to anticipate more downside to come. This will lead into a weaker AUD & NZD, & causing CHF & JPY to gain strength as these are "Safe haven" assets.
EW ANALYSIS: Risk-Off Sentiment Could Continue; NIKKEI+USDJPYHello traders!
Today we will talk about Risk-Off mode over NIKKEI225 and USDJPY, where we see a tight positive correlation!
As you can see, the main driver for the USDJPY sell-off was NIKKEI225, which may continue later this week, since we have seen an impulsive five-wave decline. In EW theory, after every five waves, a three-wave pullback follows and we can already see an a-b-c correction in progress, where wave »c« is still missing, so be aware of a Monday rally towards projected resistance areas, from where we may see another sell-off in the stock market and consequently also in the USDJPY!
That said, in the NIKKEI225 futures chart, we are tracking a three-wave a-b-c corection, where 22000 resistance area can be tested, before we may see a sell-off continuation! So, as long as it's trading below 22780 highs, we will remain bearish!
If we respect correlations, then it's similar with USDJPY, in which we think that 113 area, specifically 113.25 – 113.35 resistance area can be retested before another sell-off, so while it's trading beneath 114 region, we remain in the bearish mode!
Early Monday moves are usually fake, so if we get a Monday rally within projected wave »c«, then this would be a perfect three-wave corrective rise that can be easily covered in the next days, when we expect another sell-off!
Trade well!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Correlations: US30/DE10/JP10 yr bonds with the S&P/DowThis was an experiment to find any relevant patterns or correlations between US Bonds/equities. Nasdaq was not included due to it's high %'s skewing the perspectives on the chart
Green vertical lines were "buy signals", and the red lines were sells. The result is that there definitely is some correlation here with the "oversold"/overbought" position on US 30yr bonds and US equities. What I'm seeing is more often than not it is an accurate indicator for a trend reversal, and also that it is not time for a buy "long term" yet. That signal comes (more often than not) when the 30 yr bond price is overbought on a weekly timeframe.
I'm expecting an equities bounce in the next few days, but I'll be setting my long term buy targets lower. S&P around 2200-2300 wouldn't surprise me before the end of 2019
SPX500USD (H4)After price formed a double bottom at key level support, a strong bullish impulse took place breaking all barriers of the downtrend structure. Price closed this Friday with a bullish engulfing candlestick breaking above resistance along with the major descending trendline. Will be anticipating a slight pullback to retest broken resistance (61.8 fib) as new support for a further push to the upside.
This pair is important to watch as it has a strong correlation to the forex market. When price pushes up, AUD & NZD gain strength. When price moves lower on the SPX, this causes fear in the market & people move their money to safe haven assets like the CHF & JPY.
BTC pumps with the markets!!While most say that BTC and the stock market have no connection at all, we have been shown over and over that there is something interesting there.
We can see on this chart that both the strong downturn lower in both markets mirrored each other and today's rally in stocks was yet again mirrored in crypto markets.
Whether basing trades off of the movements of one on the other isn't recommended, the correlation is there and it is something to keep an eye on.
Cheers!
Bitcoin vs Stock Market CorrelationHere's Bitcoin compared to Stock Markets.
As you can see, almost every major drop of DJI/S&P500 has caused a sell-off in Bitcoin, while it stays flat most of the time as stocks go up. Right now Bitcoin is falling in sync with the stock market.
In the beginning of the year every major move down of DXY has lead to a down trend in Bitcoin, now it has more of a reverse correlation.
DOW and BTCBitcoin and Dow has a Direct relationship with each other. because investor are hedging their dollars in stock and when stock goes down value of usd increase because people are selling stock to usd and of course it means demand for usd and consequently increase dollar index. and because we compare BTC to USD, Btc is folling stock indexes.
Trading Entry and Exit ChecklistsSELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Trading Entry and Exit checklists
Over the past 18 years of trading, it has been a crucial step in my development to constantly critique myself and my trading strategy. I constantly monitor my performance on a daily, weekly,monthly,quartley and yearly timeframe. Listed below is a small simple example of some of the checklists that i have used in the past prior to entering and exiting a trade.
Entry Rules
1. Is the stop loss placed past the strongest support or resistance line?
2. Am i following my trading rules?
3. The risk/reward is acceptable
4. Have i double checked my entry/stop loss and target position?
5. No news announcements that will affect my trade?
6. Bid/ask spread - Is it in normal range for this pair, this session, this time?
7. AM i risking more then my agreed 1%?
8. Correlation - AM i trading against myself with already open trading trades?
Exit Rules
1. Has the market behaved as predicted? If so stay on track
2. Has the trade reached the support or resistance line?
3. Has the stop been placed too far away? or to close?
4. Am i exiting to early?
5. If unsure of trade exit immediately?
6. If i was impatient and entered trade exit immediately?
7. Is there an upcoming news event that will affect my trade?
8. Is the trade changing directions?
9. Don't take profits to early!! Are you exiting before your target line?
How has yours differed? is it similar?
$SPX vs. US 10 Year YieldIt will not be boring the next few weeks. You can be sure of that now.
$SPX vs. US 10 Year Yield #SPY $SPY #Yield #WhatsNext
GOLD USD/JPY: inverse correlation
Thank you for your attention, and please share your views and comments. Any idea is a contribution for a better understanding of The Matrix.
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Thank you for following and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
[DXY] Correlation with other pairsHi guys !
This is an other simple chart to explain the correlation between DXY and other pairs. As you know, the best exemple is with EURUSD. When EURUSD goes up, DXY goes down, and when DXY goes up, EURUSD goes down. This is because in the DXY (Dollar Index), there is more than 50 % EURUSD.
The U.S. Dollar Index is calculated with this formula:
USDX = 50.14348112 × EURUSD ^(-0.576) × USDJPY ^(0.136) × GBPUSD ^(-0.119) × USDCAD ^(0.091) × USDSEK ^(0.042) × USDCHF ^(0.036)
Thanks for your time guys !
My personalized bitcoin index (factoring in USDT fluctuations)It averages the price across 9 exchanges, while calculating the actual USD value of bitcoin in USDT markets by multiplying the respective exchange rates by the value of USDT according to Kraken.
Here's the formula for the chart in case anyone wants to use it themselves: (COINBASE:BTCUSD+BITSTAMP:BTCUSD+GEMINI:BTCUSD+POLONIEX:BTCUSDT*KRAKEN:USDTUSD+BITFINEX:BTCUSD*KRAKEN:USDTUSD+BINANCE:BTCUSDT*KRAKEN:USDTUSD+BITTREX:BTCUSDT*KRAKEN:USDTUSD+OKCOIN:BTCUSD+HITBTC:BTCUSD)/9
See related ideas(or find me on twitter/facebook/steemit) for more reasons why I'm so bullish.
The chart should pretty much speak for itself, breakout of a falling wedge...
Correlation continuesBitcoin and the stock market continues to correlate as news this morning started to cause markets to sell-off, which has resulted so far in a drop in Bitcoin shortly after.
We have to continue to keep an eye on this because they have been following each other closely.
Thanks guys
EURJPY POSSIBLE LONGKeeping a Stop loss of amount $100 USD we could easily place trade having wide SL which will be below the minor support level. It will have enough breathing rooms and as EUR, GBP doing well cause of there eurozone well reports on last Friday of the week. It went well for EURUSD and GBPUSD as we know. Getting back some strength on European currency I guess it will have some potential for our EURJPY long side and which could be a meaningful trade too. The Risk to reward ratio is for now 1:1.34 as the plan but depending on the performance of the pair it could be nearly 1:2 if the price float around or above the minor resistance level for test purpose.
Gold, GDX & GLD: Correlated Markets Lead To BIG Profits! If you trade Gold, you must know that the GDX and the GLD are both derivative markets of Gold and are closely correlated since they both track aspects of Gold. So when either one of these move, then you must look to the other one's and see what they are doing, going to do or done already. They can give you precious clues as to what the other markets are going to do. In most cases, GDX and GLD are forward indicators of Gold itself.
Why do I point this out? Well, what you see in my charts is my analysis of these 3 markets and you can see that they are all closely mimic each other. Now, I follow the mantra of "Trade what you see. Not what you think". That means I look at each chart by itself and not dependent on what any other chart is doing or projected to do. But when I analyze Gold, I also do look to GDX and GLD as well and see if my independent analysis of those markets agree with what I see in Gold. But VERY IMPORTANT to keep in mind is that NO MARKET correlate 1:1 to any other market. What that means is that Gold can move 100 pips while GDX might only move 25 pts.
In any case, I'm showing you these trades that I took and issued out to my followers to illustrate this point. Just a tip for you the next time you decide to trade in Gold.
Want to know more? Look below to my signature box or PM me.