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Correlation

GOLD USD/JPY: inverse correlation Thank you for your attention, and please share your views and comments. Any idea is a contribution for a better understanding of The Matrix. Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. ***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.*** Thank you for following and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:GOLD
by cozzamara
[DXY] Correlation with other pairsHi guys ! This is an other simple chart to explain the correlation between DXY and other pairs. As you know, the best exemple is with EURUSD. When EURUSD goes up, DXY goes down, and when DXY goes up, EURUSD goes down. This is because in the DXY (Dollar Index), there is more than 50 % EURUSD. The U.S. Dollar Index is calculated with this formula: USDX = 50.14348112 × EURUSD ^(-0.576) × USDJPY ^(0.136) × GBPUSD ^(-0.119) × USDCAD ^(0.091) × USDSEK ^(0.042) × USDCHF ^(0.036) Thanks for your time guys !
TVC:DXYEducation
by AnthoXBT
1
My personalized bitcoin index (factoring in USDT fluctuations)It averages the price across 9 exchanges, while calculating the actual USD value of bitcoin in USDT markets by multiplying the respective exchange rates by the value of USDT according to Kraken. Here's the formula for the chart in case anyone wants to use it themselves: (COINBASE:BTCUSD+BITSTAMP:BTCUSD+GEMINI:BTCUSD+POLONIEX:BTCUSDT*KRAKEN:USDTUSD+BITFINEX:BTCUSD*KRAKEN:USDTUSD+BINANCE:BTCUSDT*KRAKEN:USDTUSD+BITTREX:BTCUSDT*KRAKEN:USDTUSD+OKCOIN:BTCUSD+HITBTC:BTCUSD)/9 See related ideas(or find me on twitter/facebook/steemit) for more reasons why I'm so bullish. The chart should pretty much speak for itself, breakout of a falling wedge...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by tomtourettes
5
EURJPY POSSIBLE LONGKeeping a Stop loss of amount $100 USD we could easily place trade having wide SL which will be below the minor support level. It will have enough breathing rooms and as EUR, GBP doing well cause of there eurozone well reports on last Friday of the week. It went well for EURUSD and GBPUSD as we know. Getting back some strength on European currency I guess it will have some potential for our EURJPY long side and which could be a meaningful trade too. The Risk to reward ratio is for now 1:1.34 as the plan but depending on the performance of the pair it could be nearly 1:2 if the price float around or above the minor resistance level for test purpose.
Long
by Anatta0
Gold, GDX & GLD: Correlated Markets Lead To BIG Profits! If you trade Gold, you must know that the GDX and the GLD are both derivative markets of Gold and are closely correlated since they both track aspects of Gold. So when either one of these move, then you must look to the other one's and see what they are doing, going to do or done already. They can give you precious clues as to what the other markets are going to do. In most cases, GDX and GLD are forward indicators of Gold itself. Why do I point this out? Well, what you see in my charts is my analysis of these 3 markets and you can see that they are all closely mimic each other. Now, I follow the mantra of "Trade what you see. Not what you think". That means I look at each chart by itself and not dependent on what any other chart is doing or projected to do. But when I analyze Gold, I also do look to GDX and GLD as well and see if my independent analysis of those markets agree with what I see in Gold. But VERY IMPORTANT to keep in mind is that NO MARKET correlate 1:1 to any other market. What that means is that Gold can move 100 pips while GDX might only move 25 pts. In any case, I'm showing you these trades that I took and issued out to my followers to illustrate this point. Just a tip for you the next time you decide to trade in Gold. Want to know more? Look below to my signature box or PM me.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by EverythingForex
3
USDCHF: Time for a retracement soon ?The usdchf hit a low of 0.9540 before retracing to 0.9960 . That's a whopping 460 pip of retracement. Thus what's the revelation? U can never be too sure about the extent of how much a currency pair would retrace and if (surprise surprise) it could eventually even start an uptrend on its own. Such is the reality. The analysis is as good as it gets at the point of time but making provisions for different scenarios to play out and all the stop checks the trader has put in place to ensure that the analysis is still on track is essential for survival in any market. Thus in the case of the usdchf, with key levels taken out at 0.9890 and 0.9850 it actually opens the door to lower supports at 0.9790 and 0.97 being revisited again. However, with the longer term trendline at 0.97 holding at the moment, this is at best a retracement to Revelation Trading at the moment. We ultimately trade into the unknown and as usual the market will show us where it eventually wants to go.
Short
by revelationtrading
btc slave to the S&P 500???It cought my eye, that not a single trader looked at a correlation with the DJI, S&P500 and USD markets. while from this graph there is a clear evidence that the same institutions dumping traditional stock, in the wake of US FED hiking up the interest rates, Trump's ramblings on blaming the fed for the demise of the economy, while he just caused it to overheat and collapse. This market action has nothing to do with bulls or bears duking it out. This is plain freeing up liquidity, to move into other markets, like real-estate etc, that is not directly traded. mainly high value sell-offs by big institutions ( whales). BTC as a bucket for rapid cash, and quick move without too much taxes involved is equally leveraged to free up liquidity. some see a repeat of other october dips, reversals... etc. BTC is tightly coupled to DJI, S&P500 and USD trading. and as I mentioned before, it roughly follows the same pattern, sometimes a bit more fluctuating, but overall, if you use a smoothing algorythm, it just follows the main idices. just my 2 satoshi, this is an observation that many people do not look beyond the basket they are holding. the market is big, and keep a broad view, you will be less impacted and keep more afloat.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by byteminer
1
Bitcoin and S&P500 correlated more than people think! For the longest time, most people always correlated Bitcoin price to Gold price but there was a small subset of people that argued the equity market was the true correlation. As shown in the comparison chart above, we saw that the equities market began selling a few days before the cryptocurrency market given that cryptos are already down over 80-90% but this is more an analysis over global selling. We can see that October 9th was the day stock broke the triangle and began selling heavily while Bitcoin continued to range for a few days before taking the plunge. After the DOW fell over 800 points yesterday, the crypto market was hesitant to follow suit and waited until the end of the day and into the night before selling off heavily. Some exchanges even saw price break below $6000 as volume picked up massively and volatility re-entered the market. We also got news last night that the Shanghai Composite hit new lows not seen in 4-years last night when that part of the world woke up and saw the carnage of the New York session. Some rumors were swirling around that the Japanese were selling their crypto to cover the massive losses they were incurring on their equity portfolios, which caused the huge cascading sells in Bitcoin and rippled across the market. Some might say that a bounce in stocks might cause a bounce back in Bitcoin so keeping an eye on this correlation could be profitable if we are in fact correlated. Thanks guys
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by CM_Trades
15
USDJPY and GoldWhy is gold correlated to yen? In reality, there is no proper explanation to this. Although the fact that gold and yen both share the status as a safe haven does in a way validates this correlation. But it is merely scratching the surface. Correlations in the markets come and go. A more recent example that traders can recollect was the short term correlation between oil prices and stocks in the first half of the year, which soon faded. This brings an important point to mention, which is that with any correlation you cannot take it for granted. Therefore traders need to constantly, and at regular intervals check on the correlation between gold and yen. For example, Gold and USDJPY have a -94% correlation on a weekly basis. However, this fluctuates and therefore traders should always keep an eye out on any significant changes.
by jarttu
4
CADJPY - Long for a Sustainable Bull RunThe yen has been performing very weak and it is just sensible to long against any yen pairs at the moment. Choosing the Canadian dollar is because CAD is not too strong such as Euro and Pound where chart patterns are hard to identify and entry level is not easy to capture. The Dollar is not chosen due to the obvious that Dollar has been performing very weak and the major trend has already become very shaky. The Canadian dollar has turned out to be the best option as it is still slightly stronger than the dollar and is not way too bullish to identify good entry levels that give good reward risk ratio as well.
Long
by AlgoVenture
Potential BTCUSD Targets - Uptrend Funded by AltsHello and welcome to my idea of potential BTCUSD targets over the short-mid term trend. My targets are derived by Fibonacci levels, primarily those established by the most recent trading range, established by the highs on June 18th and lows on June 24th, as well as the larger set of Fibonacci levels, established from the $10,000 touch on May 5th, down to the lows of June 24th. After a breakout of the .236 level on the larger fib at 6,750, BTCUSD pushed to a rejection of the 1.618 fib of the previous trading range. I believe that this level should continue to consolidate, as it has re-entered the pennant on the daily timeframe, from which we fell upon breaking down 7,000. I believe the previous range's 1.272 fib level at 7,155 should hold as the last support. If this level breaks, I believe any expectation of uptrend continuation should be diminished, with exception of a deadcat bounce on a 7,000 retest. However, if we are able to hold above this level, I believe we are on route to testing the 0.5 fib level of the larger range, at 7,866, with potential of testing the resistance line of the pennant in the 8,200 range. I am rather optimistic on a visit to 7,800 levels and would recommend building out a large portion of running positions at this level. Granted a possibility for continuation, I would personally only risk the remaining 25% of running positions. Contrary to popular thought, I believe this move will come at the expense of alt-usd pairs, which will fail to surpass their local highs and continue their retrace, due to newly developing negative correlation patterns. For further understanding of this idea, refer to my post: tl;dr: I remain bullish on BTCUSD and believe it will vastly outperform alt-usd pairs. Happy trading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by checkm8
2
Study: Crypto Mentality Shift - Potential Bull Market Trigger?Hello and welcome to the revision of my working theory regarding market patterns in cryptocurrencies. This analysis follows my previous write-up regarding why intra-day traders in cryptomarkets should focus on alt-usd pairs as opposed to BTCUSD, found below: In this analysis, I focus on the 4-hour timeframe as opposed to the daily timeframe found in the original. This is due to my impression of a change in market mentality, rendered by BTCUSD's most recent upward thrust from 6,750 to 7,350. During this movement, many alt-usd pairs followed BTCUSD, although some lagged in performance. However, in the following days - as BTCUSD consolidated at the 7,300 level following a rejection of the 1.618 Fibonacci level from the previous week's range, many alt-usd pairs retraced the majority of their upward movements that mimicked BTCUSD. I have been closely watching beta and correlation levels in this scenario, as I believe this is an important signal and should not be discounted by traders in the space. What we are seeing is a weakening of a long correlation pattern between BTCUSD and alt-usd pairs, with a weakening beta on alts. It was always my belief that this correlation would break, as per the previous study. However, in the current state of the market, we see the correlation break favoring BTCUSD, meaning that BTCUSD is maintaining its new-found value at the expense of alts. Given this developing relationship, a strengthening BTCUSD will attract more alt-traders, while alts will continue to lose strength and therefore value. In addition to this, as the trading volume in BTCUSD has been declining over the majority of the YTD, it is very possible that we will see a large volume breakout on a daily level, which again - will be funded by declining alt coins. Overall, this would give BTCUSD a good push for further uptrend progression. I believe that BTCUSD has a high possibility of reaching levels between 7,700-7,850 in the near term, but this will be a painful journey for alts, as traders of the previous mindset (high correlations, high betas) will attempt to push alts. I strongly doubt most alts will exceed their local highs, which were developed on BTCUSD's push to 7,350. This is simply because the alt-usd retraces seen during BTCUSD's consolidation are simply too large, which deter the confidence in the alt market. Those who did not take profit on the initial rise will be anxious to get out, keeping the selling pressure on alts strong. See chart below for my BTCUSD targets: My theory is further reinforced through an analysis of 4-hour betas and correlations on an individual basis between large cap alt-usd pairs on Bitfinex. This collection of low 4-hour betas (SMA-smoothed on a 3-period basis) amongst the entire grouping has not been seen since February/March. If this trend continues, we will begin to see negative betas (negative correlations). In conclusion, my theory is that a market mentality shift is taking place . Traders are willing to remain bullish in one asset class (BTCUSD or alts-usd) while the other asset class is declining. In our case, this currently favors BTCUSD. While this shift may be painful in the short term for alt-usd pairs, this is a very bullish sign for the market. This means that people are able to maintain their confidence in cryptocurrency as a whole. Previously I noted high correlation and high beta patterns, that implied that sideline money was coming into alts-usd and BTCUSD simultaneously, as well as exiting both markets simultaneously. This change implies that the money will begin to flow in a cycle, from one asset class to another, allowing the market strength to develop and gradually begin a bullish cycle. tl;dr: Times are changing - we are potentially entering Timespan D. Thank you :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by checkm8
6