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Correlation

Bitcoin vs S&P 500: Who's Lying?There is a narrative that the cryptocurrency market anticipates the traditional market; that is, that it anticipates tops and bottoms, reversals and the beginning of trends. It would be like the canary that enters the ore cave to see if there is toxic gas. As the canary is an extremely air-sensitive bird, if the bird comes back alive, it means the cave is a safe place to explore. Otherwise it's a dangerous place. Comparing the BTC chart at the top with the SPX futures chart at the bottom, we have a divergence as ES1! is testing the support of June 18th, while Bitcoin has yet to arrive in that region. From this perspective, Bitcoin would be behaving like a canary, anticipating the market, indicating the end of the bear market, or is this just a lag in the price, or simply a trap, coming to test the bottom of June 18 in $17,600?
CME_MINI:ES1!
by andre_007
A Resistance On US Yields Can Be Supportive For GoldHello traders and investors, today we will talk about US Yields and its relationship with GOLD from Elliott wave perspective. As you may already know, US Yields and gold are in negative correlation. And, as you can see, while US Yields are on the rise, gold is slowing down. However, US Yields can be now finishing a five-wave cycle from the lows, while gold is approaching important support within a three-wave A-B-C correction for a higher degree wave (IV). So, if we are on the right path, then US Yields may start slowing down soon after reaching 10-year high, while gold could continue its uptrend within wave (V). Happy trading and investing! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
SAXO:XAUUSD
by ew-forecast
The DXY gameplan (through halloween)DXY has had quite the run and doesn't appear to be losing any steam. It just recently hit my July target level of 108 again... and this time I expect it to act as support as we gravitate towards Monthly R1, R2, and R3 levels. If I were to make a prediction as of today, it's that by Halloween (October 31) we will be knocking at 115. While I don't know the actual path, crawling along this current trend line and having a major run up to 115 level would make the most sense to me. Markets move in waves, I do expect some down before a gigantic push to the top. Time will tell. Lose the trend line and perhaps the overall market gets a nice breather for a relief rally and we reassess. Some interesting levels to note that are not quite as clear on my chart are Traditional Yearly R4 Pivot (111.1) and Yearly R5 Pivot (115.8). One of these could have a reaction as well. It will be important to watch price action as we get towards them for potential pullbacks. Be safe out there!
TVC:DXYLong
by upslidedown
2
SECRETS the USDT.D chart can reveal - Crypto Bullish or Bearish?Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩‍🏫 In today's video analysis, I share with you the SECRET of the USDT.D chart, that otherwise seems irrelevant in predicting the ENTIRE crypto market direction... right? Watch this video to find out what the USDT chart can reveal about the general trend of Bitcoin and altcoins / TOTAL cryptocurrency market cap. I also use one of my favorite technical indicators, the correlation coefficient. Now , you might wonder, why are market caps relevant? In general, the higher the market cap of a cryptocurrency, the more dominant it is considered to be in the market. For this reason, market cap is often regarded as the single most important indicator for ranking cryptocurrencies. The market cap of a cryptocurrency is determined by the current price multiplied by the circulating supply. The market cap of a cryptocurrency more or less reflects the popularity of a coin over a longer term and can reveal how much market participation there is in a specific asset. Large-cap cryptocurrencies are generally considered to be safer crypto investments. These are companies with a market cap of more than $10 billion. Investing in coins with large market capitalization is usually a conservative strategy. These coins are likely to be less volatile than other cryptocurrencies but still more volatile than traditional assets like stocks. Mid-cap cryptos (think top 20ish altcoins) are more volatile but also have a lot more growth potential than large-cap cryptocurrencies. Micro-cap cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and considered a highly risky investment, even though they may sometimes have a lot of potential (short-term) growth. However, be aware that they may also crash, literally from one minute to the next. They are also popular for pump and dump schemes, and liquidity rug-pulls. _________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DLong
by CryptoCheck-
41
Bitcoin Correlation to the S&P 500Had someone ask me today what I thought about Bitcoin. I had to say, They're the same thing! Since last year Bitcoin and S&P 500 have had a tight correlation of peaks and troughs. Each step lower for bitcoin or S&P and the other follows suite. Bitcoin is in tight consolidation now waiting for direction. Next major move for the S&P 500 is CPI on Sept 13. Lower CPI.. Upwards Higher CPI... Downwards. Consolidation / volatility expected for the next 2 weeks. If you enjoy the charts, please boost and follow.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SPYvsGME
6
CRUDE OIL vs SPXSeptember and October in red? 1. What Is Crude Oil? Crude oil is a naturally occurring petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. A type of fossil fuel, crude oil is refined to produce usable products including gasoline, diesel, and various other forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is, therefore, a limited resource. (Investopedia) 2. KEY TAKEWAYS - Crude oil is a raw natural resource that is extracted from the earth and refined into products such as gasoline, jet fuel, and other petroleum products. - Crude oil is a global commodity that trades in markets around the world, both as spot oil and via derivative contracts. - Many economists view crude oil as the single most important commodity in the world as it is currently the primary source of energy production. (Investopedia) 3. Stock Market The Brent Crude oil was originally produced from the Brent oilfield in the North Sea. About 2/3rds of all crude oil contracts around the globe include Brent Crude oil, making it the most popular marker. Its relatively low density and sulfur content are the reasons why it’s described as light and sweet. One of the advantages is transportation since this type of oil is waterborne. The Brent Crude oil marker is also known as Brent Blend, London Brent and Brent petroleum and has a UKOIL ticker symbol. (TradingView) 4. Correlation with SPX and market sentiment forecast As mentioned, many economists view crude oil as the single most important commodity in the world as it is currently the primary source of energy production . Therefore, it is important to consider how this market can impact other sectors. Looking at UKOIL in parallel with SPX and their correlation, we can see that September and October have a very bad track record. See red circles. When crude oil broke down the red channel between $100 and $88, the market did not react well. At the moment UKOIL is in the same region as 2008 and 2014, with the correlation about to equalize and the prices of the two symbols fall together. So I don't know if is a good time to go long.
TVC:UKOILShort
by andre_007
Global Commodity Price Index versus SPXCommodities are basic good used in commerce of primary origin, produced on a large scale and used as raw materials by various economic agents. Examples are soy, corn, cotton, meat, oil, natural gas, wood and water. They are classified, according to their origin, into agricultural, livestock, mineral and environmental. Its main function is the supply of raw materials for the production of industrialized goods. Its commercialization works, according to the international market, through negotiations carried out on stock exchanges. They are of paramount importance for the supply of primary goods for the functioning of society. (Mundo Educação - UOL) This index represents the benchmark prices which are representative of the global market. They are determined by the largest exporter of a given commodity. Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars. (fred.stlouisfed.org) This index is at an all-time high, due to the high cost of energy and the world apocalyptic scenario. The Stochastic RSI on the monthly chart is about to cross downwards. Allied to this, the correlation with SPX is decreasing, which could indicate an important moment. Historically, when these two technical events happened (stochastic crossing down and correlation falling), there was a sharp drop in SPX. This can be seen in the red circles.
FRED:PALLFNFINDEXQShort
by andre_007
Working Money vs Stock MarketM2 is the money in circulation issued by the government. (fred.stlouisfed.org) M2REAL is the real value of M2 deflated by the CPIAUCSL (Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers). (fred.stlouisfed.org) (fred.stlouisfed.org) M2REAL is in an infinite uptrend, with a downward correction now. The correlation with SPX is positive as both are falling. A change in correlation, either up or down, could indicate a move in SPX. Scenarios: 1. M2REAL falling, SPX falling: positive correlation 2. M2REAL rising, SPX rising: positive correlation 3. M2REAL falling, SPX rising: negative correlation 4. M2REAL rising, SPX falling: negative correlation With money more scarce and expensive due to inflation, I believe more in scenario 1. After this inflationary crisis is over, maybe scenarios 2 and 4.
FRED:M2REALShort
by andre_007
DXY importance to current setups!Just a bit of a reminder to always cover risk and never forget market structure. This is why I have already taken some profit on AUDUSD as the US dollar is still on a bull run in the longer time frame.. been a forex trader is about creating the best opportunities and limiting the amount of risk, this is why I believe the way I trade and analyse the market works so well for me because I understand that the market has a mind of its own and you have to treat it like that!!
TVC:DXY
by jamison_fx
BTC - Dear August, Be Good! ETH Analysis insideHello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. As per my last picture idea, we have been waiting for BTC to test the gray zone and lower red trendline to look for trend-following buy setups. BTC is already around the gray zone , and yes, as per the current market conditions, a movement till the 28k-30k resistance / supply zone is still expected. Now What? As usual, as per my trading style, I will be waiting for the bulls to take over by breaking above the last high highlighted in orange. Meanwhile, the bears can still kick in and break the channel downward, in this case we will be expecting a short-term bearish movement because the last major low (as highlighted on the chart) wouldn't be broken yet. Regarding ETH: Price broke the purple pennant downward, and as mentioned in this case, we will be looking for buy setups around the lower red trendline. ETH rejected our red trendline and traded higher . for the bulls to take over again, we need a break above the last major high in blue. Meanwhile, just like BTC, if the bears break below the trendline, then the first support would be around the 1500 zone. Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why? Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TheSignalyst
14
GOLD and JPY Correlation!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. We all know that GOLD and JPY are usually positively correlated. Means when Gold goes up, JPY pairs goes down due to JPY strength. Gold is currently sitting around a critical area 1675 - 1700 zone that has been respected since 2020. Here are the possible scenarios: 1- Rejection (blue projection) Gold rejects the 1700 support zone and trades higher. In this case, we will be expecting a reversal bearish movement on USDJPY. The next resistance for would be 1760 while the next support for USDJPY would be 135 2- Breakout (purple projection) Gold breaks below 1700, in this case an over-extended bearish movement would be expected. On the other hand, a continuation to the upside would be expected for USDJPY to test the 150 supply and upper brown trendline. Which scenario do you think is more probable and why? Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheSignalyst
26
Power of Correlation Good day friends... From my last post I shared how I have a bullish bias on XJPY pairs. And here sits beautiful EURJPY giving us a bearish setup 🤣... Am I looking to go short ? Answer is no... Why ?... In simple and plain terms ... Audjpy, EURJPY, CHFJPY, NZDJPY, GBPJPY are all positively correlated so if 4 out of the 5 have ruptured bearish order flow it's only a matter of time before EURJPY follows suite.. so probability is not on my side here. Isn't that what trading is all about? Putting probability on your side?... There you have it, the reason why I'd be sitting this beautiful setup out. Have u been making use of Correlation? Remember this isn't financial advice.
by DM_FX_
BTC vs. CPIWith BTC SPX correlation at all time high level, the impact of inflation on BTC prices increase accordingly. Unfortunately, supply side shortages make it tough for the Fed to deal with the inflation issues at hand. So I wouldn’t be calling the bottom now even with lots of on-chain metrics at historical oversold levels. Most crypto traders are more focused on the FOMC results rather than the inflation data, but in reality, inflation data is crucial for the FOMC decision. Below is the timeline for what happened in June. - June 9th: 4% probability for 75bps rate hike; 96% probability for 50bps rate hike - June 10th: May CPI data released (actual > estimate by 0.3%) - June 10th – June 14th: probability for 75bps rate hike surged from 4% to 94% - June 15th: Fed raised rate by 75bps The majority of the 30k to 20k BTC drop happened before the FOMC (June 14-15th) and after the CPI data release (June 10th). If we look at the differential between estimated and actual CPI data, it’s interesting to see that BTC has faced tough market conditions when the actual data beats the estimated inflation data. Current estimate for June sits at 1.1% MOM and 8.8% YOY. 11 more hours till the next CPI data release. 14 more days till next FOMC. Tick tock.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Phi-Deltalytics
15
DUK: Nat Gas going up,so does DukeDuke Energy Short Term -We look to buy at 105.90 (stop at 102.26) Buying pressure from 97.00 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has a potential to return. Bespoke support is located at 105.50. There is scope of selling at the opening but we expect support to stem any losses. Preferred trade is to buy dips close to our bespoke support zone. Our profit target will be 113.95 and 117.00 Resistance: 114.00 / 120.00 / 124.00 Support: 105.50 / 97.00 / 86.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:DUKLong
by VantageMarkets
JICPT| recession fear weighed on markets!Hello everyone. US 10Y yield has been up by a lot since middle of last year due to inflation issues. US oil posted incredible performance due to supply issues caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Now, both of them fell a lot today. I also noted gold also dipped. Only dollar is rising today. I've been through this several times in the past few years. When everything drops, except the dollar index, investors are concerned about the future growth. The main driver of the market has shifted from the war and inflation to the economy growth. According to the dot plot, the median year-end projection for the federal funds rate moved up to 3.4%. That's way much higher than previous projection. I remembered a model suggested a possible 40% drop from the high created last year. Before the inflation got controlled, market will be under pressure due to series of rate hikes. I guess the peak will be around September. The more Fed raises the target rate, the more room it can reduce to spur the economy in the future .
TVC:US10Y
by JICPT
FXI / Nasdaq Relative Strength & Correlation China's Large Cap ETF (FXI) is showing notable bullish Relative Strength (RS) compared to the Nasdaq (0.26 on the Daily RS, using a 50 period timeframe). The typical RS between these two fluctuates between -0.15 - 0.10. FXI also tends to have quite a strong correlation coefficient vs. NDX, but we're finally seeing that break down (0.24 on the Daily w/ a 50 length and trending down). Conservative swing traders want to see a breakout above ~$34 for longs, which would clear the downward sloping trendline that FXI has been respecting since early 2021. While there's still geopolitical risks associated with trading Chinese equities (e.g. tensions with Taiwan), China's recent dovish tilt is encouraging for swing-trading speculators. AMEX:FXI NASDAQ:NDX
Editors' picks
AMEX:FXILong
by Michigandolf
13