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Correlation

An opportunity in the making on EURNZDEURNZD broke above a recent swing high in spite of NZ Bank's raising of interest rates by 0.25 points. I think there is an opportunity in the making. There might have been a lot of liquidity above the recent high. People are putting stop-orders in this area - whether the intention is to enter in the opposite direction or to exit their shorts. If it reverses now, there won't be a technical reason why Euro would rise further since the big money are expected to load their orders in this alleged liquidity-dense area. Central Banks Rates are in the bottom: Black ~ EUR, Red ~ NZD Further technical view dictates the importance of moving averages. Guess what, EURNZD has just approached its 5 EMA and bounced off around midday today (Central European Time). To support my thesis correlatively, I chose Oil and Euronext 100 which both have high anti-correlation against this pair. You can view both Oil and Euronext under the chart. Candles are colored as follows: Purple ~ anti-correlation, Yellow ~ correlation The oil has produced two relatively big yellow candles for an anti-correlating asset. From this perspective, EURNZD has some catching up to do in the downward direction. I guess the logic could be that the EU needs to be spending more money to buy oil and as a result, there is more in circulation. But correct me if I am wrong - I've adopted the relational analysis only recently and I write this with the hopes that someone will help improve via insightful comments/PMs. With Euronext, and this I am not completely sure either, I think its that the cheaper currency means easier exports for European companies. But again, I was mostly a technical guy not so long ago. Anyway, from the technical perspective, it just bounced off its 50 EMA. I will be watching the market closely tomorrow and at some point, I would like to enter a short if the market shows some follow-up (bearish engulfing on 1D or 1H). Good luck!
Short
by OrcChieftain
2
JICPT|NQ fell amid rising US10Y yield and VIXHello everyone. Nasdaq slipped by 1% amid rising US 10Y yield and VIX . US 10Y yield : It's approaching 1.7%. The normalization rate is around 2%, however, the rising yield from historic low would weigh on the tech-heavy index. On the other side, if the growth keeps on surprising investors, that would hedge against the rising yield . VIX: the control high around 20.7ish looks to be conquered soon. The momentum tends to accelerate if the key level is broken. It'll have negative impact on the broad market index. Technically, the nearest solid daily demand zone is around 15927. I've set an alert to give myself a gentle reminder. I'll be a 5% correction from the recent high.
FX:NAS100Long
by JICPT
JICPT| Choppy market with rising DXY and VIXHello everyone. I started to have the feel that market is waiting for something since Monday this week. Here I got four important underlying to check as below. 1. US 10Y yield : It's a cost rate for me. Now, it's in the middle of the New range with upper boundary around 2% which is the low case of the normal range. The rising yield weigh on stock index. 2. Dollar index : DXY is definitely in the uptrend. After 94.75 has been conquered, the next trouble level is 96.86. Normally Dollar and gold moves in opposite directions, not for the past two days. I will let it go if the current price is not at the key levels. We can cross check forex pairs to identify some opportunities. 3. VIX : Vix has kissed the control low area before falling. The holder zone is below around 14.13-15.12 . The fall of t VIX will favor stock index. 4. Gold : After key trouble zone of 1835 was taken out, the target might be $1938 by applying measured move. We also need to watch $1900. That's confluence level of whole number and next control high. Sometimes, we just wait for the best setups. No trade is also a good option in the choppy market, at least for me.
TVC:VIX
by JICPT
3
Bitcoin ATH breakoutBoth BTC and ETH had a significant levels of previous all time highs to be cleared for a bullish momentum. ETH/USD cleared the level of 4.200usd and that has now become support. BTC/USD is now ranging at 62.000 ~ 64.000usd (previous ATH) and there's a clear correlation to ETH/USD at the same level. Expecting the bulls to take over during the next weeks, but being cautious at the moment until there's a clear evidence of support. First target remains 72.000usd unless support is lost for invalidation.
Long
by Rads_g
USDollar Index (DXY) Analysis Hi I hope you all are in a constant profit. DXY on a weekly time frame is creating an exciting chart. As you can see, if a weekly candle closes above 94.54, a significant accumulation phase is confirmed. On the other hand, the BEXP Indicator indicates HVP is reducing and has a downtrend, so a big explosion in this scale is baking. The interesting part is the positive correlation between DXY and Bitcoin on a weekly scale. And it's not weak as well. Screenshot: Thanks for your time. Regards, Hashem.
TVC:DXY
by rhawshemi
JICPT|US 10Y yield completed pullback, heading for previous highHello everyone. US 10Y yield and DXY(Dollar index) are the two I always keep close eyes on. As I mentioned previously, it's a risk-free rate that impacted a lot of things, e.g. stock valuations, loan rates. The below line chart is one of my favorite that I created for cross-check US10 Y yield, Nasdaq and Gold. Normally, US10 Y yield goes the opposite with gold( negative correlation ). It seems gold shrugged off the treasury yield today. Then, I checked the dollar index which face strong selling pressure after recent rally. The weakening dollar index support gold to go up by around $14. Of course, there're other factors, such as inflation . The big rally of gold happened on last Wednesday was a good example. Back to the US 10Y yield, I added notes on the daily chart. You can see that the recently movement is mainly driven by better-than-expected economic data. The pullback completion is an indication that the yield is going to retest previous high of 1.77%. But I guess the 45% degree uprising angle couldn't sustained. It need to take a break(go sideways) in the next few days before attacking previous high. Overall, the normalization is inevitable. The yield will go back to pre-pandemic level of 2%. So, if the yield keeps going up, I don't recommend holding gold for too long(day trade and short swing trade is okie). This is in line with my previous gold analysis-the triangle pattern. You can refer details in the below linked idea. Also, I'd prefer S&P to Nasdaq for investment as the tech-heavy index will be impacted more by the rising yield. If the yield goes high enough, it'll result in the strength of the dollar index. Remember what happened in early 1980s? However, I don't think things will go crazy in that scale. What do you think? Give me a like if you think the post is useful.
TVC:US10YLong
by JICPT
Broken Correlation Amazon/Alibaba, only an Evergrande thing?Alibaba is off the road... looks like total crash, like Bayer after the Monsanto deal... But Alibaba got no endless billion dollar legal proceedings! Alibaba got a protected billionen chinese market plus a growing part of the world.... The problems with the allmighty Xi Jingping dont making so much noise... The user data part is under political control, so the ecommerece part can go on First thing I'm thinking about is the chinese real estate crisis. But the correlation between Amazon and Alibaba disconnected in june... in My mind the Evergrande thing came to late. Please let me hear your opinion... Im totaly new to this game. Its so amazing! :-D Going Long, Its a temporary thing... Ali ist lower then march '20 and the world wont stop because of Evergrande or so...
CAPITALCOM:BABALong
by FlorianMN
JICPT|10Y Yield challenges 1.5% with crude oil up and NQ down! Hello everyone. The US 10Y yield formed a really big bullish candle on last Thursday, with Fed didn't take any action on tapering. On the daily chart of the yield, we can clearly see that it firmly left the 1.3% bottom level. If it conquers 1.5% level, 1.7% and previous high would be retested then. The good economic outlook and inflation pressure is the main driver of the yield hike. What's the impact of the rising yield? We all saw how market responded to the yield surge back in Feb. No wonder NQ got some pressure today. But I don't think NQ will be like that. Buy-the-dip strategy still works in my opinion. What about crude oil? I'm bullish, though, the 77-75 bearish structure may take some time for buyers to retake. What do you think? Give me a like if you're with my view. Thank you for your support.
TVC:US10Y
by JICPT
Nintendo Switch OLED, Buy Buy Bye OldieWith the release of the 2021 Nintendo OLED Switch, and the holiday season being right around the corner. The release of the new switch is rumored to be in a few days. Right in time for parents to begin researching new consoles for the HOLIDAYS. The OLED display is a beautiful piece of engineering that will continue making Nintendo a leader in the Gaming industry. I mean, i've only seen it compared to the old switch in VIDEOS. It's gorgeous. The white finish on the dock, the white joy-cons, the glossy innards. The black blacks. NTDOY gets a BUY BUY BUY from me! Not the mention the beautiful price of the stock! Nintendo is going to be a BUY + GHOLD for me, as I have a little foresight on what might happen, which such a great company like Nintendo! Although no numbers will be given, it's possible that Nintendo will be back in its $70+ Ticker Days. OTC:NTDOY
OTC:NTDOY
by caraveoshot
1
UKOIL and GOLD correlation !!! TVC:UKOIL OANDA:XAUUSD Hi guys , how you doing ? I hope the bests for you all . as we all know oil price have risen a lot recently as Europe and the world face energy problems and high demand for oil and also gold price has fallen sharply recently due to stronger dollar in the forex market on Monday ... everything has became a little complicated for me but now let's take a look at charts of oil and gold together and compare it . as we can see in the chart , whenever that oil was in a downtrend , gold was starting it's uptrend so they move against , and now oil is kind of really high and in the other side the price of gold is in support zone of 1730 but if the price of oil keeps going higher to the resistance of $86 the gold will probably continue falling to support zone of $1678 which has been a really strong support in the past . so this is my personal view about oil and gold , and also we need to wait for Federal Reserve to see what's gonna happen to dollar in the markets according to their decisions and speeches . if the dollar will get stronger , then gold will continue falling to $1678 with a high possibility. this is just a personal research and analysis and it's not a signal about buying or selling something . I wish you all success and wellness .
OANDA:XAUUSD
by mahdirhimi
Bitcoin and US 10YR bond, negative correlation?Just have a small thought about the negative correlation between the U.S. Government 10YR bond and Bitcoin. do you see any correlation and what do you think for next month? some useful links: July 14, 2021 Fed's Powell says economy 'a ways off' from bond taper, inflation to ease WASHINGTON, July 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. job market "is still a ways off" from the progress the Federal Reserve wants to see before reducing its support for the economy, while current high inflation will ease "in coming months," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in remarks prepared for delivery at a congressional hearing on Wednesday. www.reuters.com July 26, 2021 Fed meeting may test low U.S. Treasury yields CHICAGO, July 26 (Reuters) - The $22 trillion market for U.S. Treasury securities may get a reality check from the Federal Reserve this week following a plunge in interest rates that bucked expectations of higher yields this year as the economy rebounds from the COVID-19 pandemic. Yields, which move inversely to prices, have been in a downward trend since the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting in June. The market initially perceived the Fed as being a bit hawkish as policymakers last month projected an accelerated timetable for rate hikes and opened discussions on ending crisis-era bond purchases amid a backdrop of rising inflation. www.reuters.com AUGUST 11, 2021 Fed's Kaplan says central bank should start tapering in October WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. Federal Reserve should announce its timeline for beginning to reduce its massive bondholding next month and start tapering them in October, Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan said on Wednesday. www.reuters.com September 23, 2021 Fed signals bond-buying taper coming 'soon,' rate hike next year WASHINGTON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it will likely begin reducing its monthly bond purchases as soon as November and signaled interest rate increases may follow more quickly than expected as the U.S. central bank's turn from pandemic crisis policies gains momentum. www.reuters.com September 27, 2021 Fed's Evans: U.S. economy "close" to meeting bond taper threshold Sept 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is close to having met the Federal Reserve's bar for beginning to reduce its bond purchase program and will meet it soon if job gains continue, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Monday, the latest policymaker to back the central bank's step away from pandemic-era crisis policies. www.reuters.com
by sinazhr
1
JICPT| BTC rebounding from strong holder zone as expected! Hello everyone. Yesterday, I published an idea titled 'Global market rattled by Evergrande's crisis', which I marked a strong holder zone around $40000 on BTC with long-term MA and flip structure . You can check the linked idea below for more information. I was right about the zone which did serve as a strong holder. I can see price went deeply into the zone and rebounded from $40000 key level(whole number effects). The coming Thursday will be another important day as Evergrande will be required to pay back interest on its bond. The default is likely according to S&P and it might trigger another sell-off of the global risky assets. Personally, though, I don't think there is much room to go down for Bitcoin . Please trade safe and mange your position well.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by JICPT