Bitcoin LongTerm & MidTerm AnalysisAfter Weekly close above $ 11600 now bitcoin caused a change of behavior on the weekly scale.
Weekly & Monthly Charts suggests a test of $ 14000 but in the ShortTerm, there will be some corrections and pullbacks.
For the ShortTerm, we can get $ 11800 as a pivot.
For the MidTerm, we can get $ 11500 as a pivot.
For the LongTerm, we can get $ 10800 as a pivot.
"As pivot" I mean if it's a break, it is a change of behavior in that scale and time frame.
Bitcoin on Macro is Bullish until it is above $ 10800 .
Correlation Coefficient (CC)
S&P, Gold & BTC Correlation - when safe haven?For the last 6 weeks or so, there's only been one thing to trade - The Market, as everything moved up and down together, gapping violently based on news.
These daily charts show how the stock market (SPX/S&P 500) has correlated with the historical safe haven asset of gold (XAUUSD) and the promised new safe haven of Bitcoin (BTCUSDT). The red indicator at the bottom is the standard TradingView Correlation Coefficient (CC).
In the first chart, BTC - in blue - largely moved with the S&P, showing a high CC throughout the crash. Notably, it had a more extreme flash crash (crypto loves extremes), and also recovered off the bottom more quickly. These differences aside, BTC remains highly correlated with the stock market for now.
In the second chart, gold - in yellow - at first continued its rise as stocks fell, but then had a sharp selloff of its own. It's been reported that this was probably due to traders being forced to sell positions in order to avoid margin calls as equities got smashed, and that sounds reasonable to me. Since that started, gold has been very highly correlated with stocks, falling and recovering together.
In the third chart, perhaps somewhat redundantly, we can see that since March 9 or so, gold and BTC have become and stayed well correlated.
Where next?
Notably, gold has now exceeded its pre-crash high, while stocks are still down 16%. Gold is also trading well above all of its daily moving averages, while the S&P is still underneath the 89 and 200. This is at least some technical reason to think that their trajectories might be different soon.
My bias, based on fundamentals, is short equities and long precious metals and crypto. But I can't trade that until their correlation drops – until the further drop in the stock market that I think is coming panics gold investors not into selling, but buying. So I'll be watching this chart carefully.
+Obligatory "I'm not an expert, this isn't advice". Stay safe out there!
BTC:USD manages to break above 61.8% Fib level.Expected to retest it again, and then will see where it will go from there.
If it finds support, expect BTC to continue higher to 38.2% level.
If it fails to find support above the 61.8% Fib level, there's a high possibility of it falling all the way down to 3800 again.
See also XBT/SPX ratio analysis:
More current XBT/SPX update:
Bitcoin Price vs. its Market Capitalization DominanceCorrelation Coefficient is a statistic measurement of correlation between two sets of data (of potentially any financial instruments) and shows the degree of relationship between them. It may help us to have a better understanding of market behavior. A few days ago, I came up with the idea of studying the correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) price in US Dollar ( BTCUSD ) and its Market Capitalization Dominance ( BTC.D ). So I made the setup chart and found something interesting. Bitcoin price sometimes has a very strong negative correlation with its Market Cap Dominance. In fact I'd better say that most of the time BTC has had negative correlation with its Market Cap Dominance. I think it is important and may lead us to have a better overview of how Bitcoin and other Crypto Currencies' (altcoins) market behave.
I searched Trading View for this subject and did not found any document related to this concept. If you know any documentation pertinent to this matter, please kindly let me know to include that in the proceeding research and analysis. I will update this study as research go on.
Appreciation for your attention,
Concerning Dow Jones CorrelationsSeveral correlations that I track are at rather concerning levels. All of these markets moving together could result in a negative feedback loop.
The DJI 20-day correlation coefficients included are: DJ China, DJ Europe, DJ Japan, junk bonds, US WTI oil, DJ US real estate, and gold. Included for experimental observations are: VIX and SPX put/call ratio.
Exotic Lover's! USDSEK Possible Resistance Breakout!I was testing yen strength as the EURJPY and GBPJPY are doing nice with there fall USDSEK could better relly upward too. I am saying this cause USDSEK currently has like -0.80 correlation to the EURJPY and GBPJPY. Seeing a weak pound USD is also pulling down the GBPUSD and talking about this pair it is highly positively correlated to EURJPY and GBPJPY so, if it falls hard that's good for EURJPY and GBPJPY short (sell)! And as I said if EJ and GJ are falling what we end up with? USDSEK upward relly right? Eh! Charts show everything I hope you all do understand.
The Key point in Chart.
1) Price trying to breakout the Minor Resistance Level @ 8.98283.
2) Ascending Triangle pattern indicating upward continuation in price.
3) Impulse waves are in uptrend side of the Elliott wave.
4) Fibonacci Extension 38.20% chasing by the price and could possibly chase further higher levels depending on the pair upward strength.
Ok, thank you never mind I don't wanna stretch this post longer. Everything is told by chart itself better just be careful with the news sentiment, concerned +/- correlated pairs activities how they acting in whole and some important levels like those resistance, support etc.
The New EraThe chart above highlights the change in correlation between the STOXX50 and the S&P500 over the last decade. Interestingly there have been considerable falls in the correlation coefficient in 2012 and 2018. Are we in a new era where global markets are detached? Trading Forex / CFDs is High Risk.
Looking the Bigger Picture (Wave Correlation)Birds Eye View (Correlation from Bigger and smaller Wave).
Tracing the Elliott Wave Counting from the time of downtrend.
How many of you will agree on this?
Seems like the ABC is coming to town after this big drop.
Is it time to get Bullish again o_O ?!!!
You Decide!
As for me, I'll definitely ride this trend.
GBPAUD longAnother example where you can trade simultaneously two negatively correlated pairs. You can see that correlation coefficient is close to -1, so you should split your exposure between those trades. Otherwise, your are doubling your risk! Buy the break of local trendline.
1) Never risk more than 2% of your account.
2) Try to be emotionless by applying your strategy to the pip.
3) Invest to yourself and then your capital. Try to educate yourself along with the signals and enhance your risk intelligence and your perception on how Markets work.
4) You do not have to be extremely precise to be highly profitable as long as you take the set-ups with big R/R.
CADCHF-EURCAD negative correlation As you can see, the correlation co-efficiency factor in relation to EURCAD set-up is almost -1. Current conditions show opposite behavior, which could be used as confirmation for the other analysis or an extra set-up. In the second scenario, it's better to split the initial risk percentage, since the positions provide zero diversification.
BTC and ETH Price in USD - Correlation CoefficientThis graph is a quick view into the historical and current correlation coefficient observed for BTC and ETH prices in USD on the CEXIO Exchange