20W moving average (and a white shadow of a 21W EMA) has historically indicated a good near term cost basis. With a fitted fibonacci slanted channel (and more-or-less randomly extending the 20W average) we can plot a possible path for BTC, dancing between past fib level trend lines for resistance at important price levels, while also holding support at this...
With the infrastructure bill being passed, we may see companies like US Steel and CLF benefit. It is interesting however to note the current multi-year trading range, so I think that a technical trade plan with an underlying fundamental rationale are both important for active traders getting involved in the infrastructure play.
With the US infrastructure bill passed and GDP expansion via fiscal support, the broad market is still long. VIX curve show no signs of backwardation, but the cautionary note is the Debt Ceiling and Budget issues coming up - these may provide buying or covered call writing opportunities. Side note: no hyper inflation and relates going lower as Fed rate rises are...
Previously noted as a buy around an area of consolidation and Cost Basis (refer related article), the parabolic retrace is a sign that buy at limit at lower prices is appropriate, and any cover writing or exit longs could consider these price levels to reduce exposure.
BTC grinding towards the previously noted price target of $53-$54 mark. That coincides with closing price levels and swing traders' cost basis. SOPR is net positive with no material profit taking indicated by Realised Profit & Loss Indicator. BTC price risk in-part based on future spreads indicates a possible pullback - but that would be anticipated as price...
LTC break above cost basis - most traders still HODL'ing with no material realised gains (profit taking) to note to date. SOPR indicates a few pundits chucked in the towel early (refer : arrow) , but LTC is now a net long market. My strategy Currently, trading long the SOPR breaks and pull backs above the Cost Basis line (market net profit line). Conditions...
LTCUSD has ground-up to cost basis seeing the market on average now breaking-even. The cost basis line being a natural price target for those buying at the lows i.e. naïve structure trades. Minor profit taking has now taken place = with realised PnL (refer to Histogram). Herein lies the issue - the market on average is at breakeven, but no new capital has...
LTCUSD bounces-off Cost Basis as I write this update from my mobile phone. The market on average is going into break-even I don't see unusual breakeven trading, so Hodl'ing has paid-off for many.But keep an eye on tbe extent of pullbacks. Like my other posts on BTC and Doge...the same logic applies - so refer to those articles. #Adam-Cox
My prior posts on BTC presented the concept that if BTC bounced-off the lower cost basis line (illustrated was the swing trader and short term traders costs basis), we would want to be long and take advantage of the accumulation driven by 1) Hodlers not selling and 2) new capital coming into the market (with lower break even points.) The middle cost basis line...
LTC is still an unique case. Overall the market as a whole is on average underwater. Whilst a small fraction of this market has taken losses, many are still Hod'lers. I am keeping an eye on this as I would consider long trades if support is found after a rally above the current cost basis. This is a conservative approach but does mean the market would be behind...
As in the case of BTC we see an initial bounce-off the lower cost basis line and no unusal breakeven trading...It appears to me that the 'active' part of this market are very much 'hodlers' and to me this bodes well for a potential rally to the upper cost basis line. If on the hand, I saw a lot of breakeven trading and new shorts enter the market then I would be...
BTC found support on the lower cost basis level, and thenrallied to the upper line. It appears to me that substantial profit taking has not taken place (yet) nor has breakeven trading. In other words the market has seen some real "Hodl'ing", which bodes well either to stymie any downside panic attacks and also to aid the prospencity of further rallies. So I...
Lower cost basis line being tested and at the moment respected! No great churn or capital replacement evidenced (refer to the lower oscillator) This means a couple of things: - the 'crowd' is not yet chucked-in the towel and given up on Doge - cost basis for these traders is at or around breakeven / underwater (about of Doge's 10% capitalisation) - there...
On average, the Cost Basis for DOGE Coin is less than $0.02. Because, no more than around 10% of DOGE capitalisation has been actively traded, downside can be as low as $0.02 - with very little resistance straight down to the 'floor' The tell-tale sign of a break is when existing long traders (at their current break-even point or currently experiencing losses...
Update My last update on DOGE Coin was that I could long so long as support came into the market - and the demarcation point for this support would the lower cost basis line as indicated on the chart. I also suggested that Doge's price would 'float' down to this lower level as I did not see spikes in realised losses. This price decline would be primarily...
BTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report stills shows signs of dealer negativity and declining retail sentiment. Obviously, this can all change on a dime. I don't plan trades on COT alone. However, what COT is good for is understand where market participants stand and what 'knock-on' effects may eventuate when market's reverse or when trend continuation occurs....
I have discussed a number of times of current position of continuing being long in the US SP500 index. One aspect of my analysis is fundamental; another aspect is reviewing the market's on-average cost basis and realized PnL. What is evident from this picture is the 'buffer' or open unrealised gains currently sitting in the market. (Contrast this with TSLA -...
LTCUSD still grinding up, albeit slowly - but it is one of the only main cryptos which is in net overall loss on average. This analysis illustrates how investors have been holding positions which on average have been under water. Whilst this is a positive sign because it infers that investors have higher price expectations in the future i.e. they haven't...