COT
EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Will the Bears Strike Back from 1.14? 📍1. TECHNICAL CONTEXT
EUR/USD is trading around 1.1405, inside an ascending channel and right within a supply zone (1.1370–1.1470), which already triggered a rejection on April 16. Price action currently shows hesitation, with three consecutive candles at the top of the channel and RSI divergence, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum after an overextension.
The bullish trendline from April remains intact and validated, but the upside is narrowing. Likely scenario: bullish exhaustion followed by a pullback towards 1.1270–1.1220, with a potential retest of both the trendline and the lower boundary of the channel.
📊2. COT REPORT (USD & EUR) – Updated to May 20
USD Index: Non-Commercials added +2,044 net longs, but also +1,975 new shorts. Open Interest rose by +2,207 → a more active market, but still mixed. Net exposure remains neutral to slightly bearish for the dollar.
EURO FX: Non-Commercials cut -3,587 longs and added +6,814 shorts, while Commercials increased longs by +16,796. Speculative funds are gradually shifting short on the Euro, while Commercials continue to hedge long.
→ Combined read: Large speculators are reducing their Euro exposure and staying cautious on the Dollar. Short-term pressure on EUR/USD remains bearish, though no macro reversal yet.
📉3. SENTIMENT & POSITIONING
Retail sentiment shows 71% of traders are short EUR/USD — a classically contrarian signal. However, price is now sitting in a liquidity cluster where smart money might exploit a final squeeze before a real reversal.
Market depth shows strong imbalance, with long orders stacked above current price — suggesting potential stop hunt already triggered or about to fade.
🧭4. SEASONALITY
Historically, May is a bearish month for EUR/USD: -0.0079 on 20-year average, and -0.0163 on 10-year average. Seasonality supports late May weakness and potential downside continuation into early June.
✅ TRADING OUTLOOK
📌 Primary Bias: short-term corrective bearish, waiting for clearer reversal signals.
📌 Key Reaction Zone: 1.1400–1.1470 → structural short area, already tested.
📌 Bearish Target: 1.1270 > 1.1210 (golden pocket + trendline confluence)
📌 Setup invalidation: daily close above 1.1470 with volume → possible extension to 1.1550/1.1580
📌 Macro support: Commercials remain long on the Euro → underlying structure still bullish, but too early to fade short-term bearish momentum.
Cocoa Explosion Loading? Specs & Hedgers Agree🔍 Fundamental Analysis – Commitment of Traders (COT)
The latest COT report, dated May 13, 2025, reveals a strong bullish accumulation signal, with a significant increase in long positions across all major trader categories.
Specifically, Non-Commercials (speculative traders such as hedge funds and money managers) increased their long positions by +3,490 contracts while simultaneously reducing shorts by -467 contracts. This dynamic reflects renewed speculative confidence in the cocoa bullish trend.
Simultaneously, Commercials (typically producers and processors) added +5,187 long contracts and closed -661 short contracts. This is especially noteworthy, as commercials usually take the opposite side of speculators. Here, however, their alignment with speculators may indicate expectations of upcoming supply constraints or market stress.
Total open interest rose by more than +6,000 contracts, suggesting real capital inflow into the market rather than just rebalancing.
This alignment between speculators and institutional hedgers is rare and often precedes further price appreciation.
📈 Net Positions & Price Action
Looking at the “Net Positions & Prices” chart over the past year, it’s clear that Non-Commercial net positions are recovering after a notable drop in March and April. This reversal aligns with the technical bottom and the start of the current price rally.
Commercials, although still net short (in line with their historical bias), are reducing their bearish exposure, hinting at lower physical supply pressure or a need for hedging against further price increases.
Price action has reflected this narrative, surging higher following the April lows.
🕰️ Seasonal Analysis
Seasonality adds another layer to the analysis.
Historically, May tends to be flat or slightly bearish (10Y and 15Y averages), but the 2-Year seasonal line—which better reflects current market behavior—shows a strong bullish tendency starting mid-month. This supports the ongoing rebound and increases the likelihood of further upside in the short term.
Historical data also shows that June, while volatile, is often positive or neutral in shorter cycles.
📊 Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, cocoa recently completed a strong bullish leg, rebounding from the 8,800–9,000 USD demand zone, identified as a clear area of institutional buying (evident through volume and impulsive candles).
The price then decisively broke through mid-range resistance levels and tested a key weekly supply zone between 11,200 and 11,500 USD, where it was initially rejected.
Currently, we are in a technical pullback, likely targeting the mitigation zone at 9,700–10,000 USD. This area represents a solid long entry opportunity if the market confirms a bullish structure on intraday charts (H1 or H4).
The RSI is near overbought, yet without divergence—suggesting the trend remains structurally bullish despite a natural correction.
🧭 Strategic Conclusion
Cocoa currently shows a rare convergence of bullish signals: supportive COT positioning, increasing net long interest, strong 2Y seasonality, and clear technical structure controlled by buyers.
However, after the recent sharp upside move, a correction to key support zones is likely before another bullish leg unfolds.
GBP/USD About to Explode?GBP/USD is currently trading around the 1.3360–1.3380 zone after testing the key weekly resistance area between 1.3400 and 1.3450. The bullish momentum remains strong, supported by speculative positioning still favoring the pound, while the dollar shows signs of softening. On the macro side, the interest rate differential between the UK and the US may narrow in the coming months, but for now, it continues to support upward pressure on the pair.
From a technical standpoint, price has broken out of an ascending triangle on the daily chart, showing strong momentum and confirmation with multiple closes above 1.3300. Market sentiment remains skewed to the short side, adding contrarian fuel to the bullish bias. The key short-term support lies between 1.3270 and 1.3300. As long as this area holds, the base case favors a continuation toward 1.3520 and potentially 1.3600. A break below 1.3170 would invalidate the current bullish structure and open the door for a deeper pullback toward 1.3000.
From an execution standpoint, a confirmed breakout above 1.3415 could offer a long entry opportunity with active management. Still, caution is advised around the weekly supply zone due to its historical responsiveness. Eyes remain on upcoming macro data and potential volatility from central bank statements.
EURAUD Ready to Launch? Institutions Positioning for a Big Move!🔍 1. COT REPORT (Commitment of Traders)
EUR:
Net Positioning (Non-Commercial): +75,253 → Bullish, but slightly reduced this week (-3,587 longs, +6,814 shorts).
Commercials: Heavily short (550,286 vs 423,456 longs) → Hedging against potential EUR strength.
Open interest change: +8,343 contracts → Higher market participation, active environment.
AUD:
Net Positioning (Non-Commercial): -59,077 → Strong bearish sentiment on AUD.
Commercials: Net long (121,279 vs 61,743 shorts) → Fundamental support for AUD at potential value areas.
Open interest down (-2,607) → Possible position unwinding or rollover.
📊 COT Conclusion: Speculators favor EUR long / AUD short, but commercials are positioned inversely, suggesting a potential reversal point.
📈 2. SEASONALITY
EUR in May:
Generally negative, with average monthly performance over 10y, 15y, and 20y ranging between -0.01% and -0.02%.
Only the 2y curve shows strength (≈+0.0194).
AUD in May:
Mixed performance: 10y and 5y negative, but 2y slightly positive (+0.0083) → sign of recent improvement.
📊 Seasonality Conclusion: Slight edge for AUD thanks to near-term seasonal resilience.
💡 3. SENTIMENT
Retail traders: 84% short on EURAUD.
Average short entry: 1.7002, current price ≈ 1.7491 → many are in drawdown.
High short congestion above 1.74 → Potential short squeeze setup.
📊 Sentiment Conclusion: Environment favors a bullish push to trigger stops and unwind retail shorts.
🧠 4. PRICE ACTION
Price reacted to a major demand zone at 1.7200–1.7350.
Last two weekly candles show compression and accumulation following strong bearish momentum.
Clear liquidity pocket above 1.76–1.77, targeting the 1.79–1.80 zone.
RSI showing recovery from oversold conditions.
📊 Technical Conclusion: Structure suggests rebound or reversal, aligned with sentiment and positioning dynamics.
🔚 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
Primary Bias: LONG EURAUD (multi-day / swing setup)
🎯 Target: 1.7700 – 1.7920
🛡️ Stop: Below 1.7310 (weekly close under demand zone)
⚠️ Alternative (Scenario B): A clear weekly close below 1.7300 may reactivate the bearish trend toward 1.7200.
6B Swing Short Swing short, COT - Valuation - Supply and Demand.
Been waiting a long time to short the pound..
GBP/CAD Poised for Breakout – What’s Next After 1.8600?1. TECHNICAL CONTEXT (Daily Chart)
GBP/CAD has been trading within a well-defined ascending channel since early 2025. After hitting the lower bound of the channel around 1.8050 in May, price bounced sharply and regained strength, pushing back above the key 1.8400–1.8450 zone, now confirmed as new support.
Currently, price is approaching the 1.8600 area, which represents:
The upper boundary of the April–May consolidation range
A clear supply zone visible on the weekly chart
A technical resistance cluster (previous closes + Fibonacci levels)
The RSI shows growing momentum, yet not overbought, suggesting potential upside extension toward 1.8779, the monthly high.
Key Technical Levels:
Resistance: 1.8600 – 1.8779 (extended target)
Support: 1.8401 (weekly) and 1.8250 (mid-range level)
Primary Trend: Bullish
Structure: Active ascending channel
2. INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING (COT REPORT – May 13, 2025)
CAD:
Non-Commercials (speculators) are heavily net short:
23,250 longs vs 105,466 shorts = -82,216 net
Weekly increase: +18,084 new shorts → clear rise in bearish pressure
Commercials (hedgers) are net long, typical of risk hedging, indicating an opposing view to speculators
GBP:
Non-Commercials are net long:
89,540 longs vs 62,324 shorts = +27,216 net, despite a minor weekly reduction (-4,844)
Commercials are net short, likely hedging strength in the pound
COT Takeaway:
Speculators are clearly favoring GBP strength vs CAD, while CAD is under heavy short pressure. This supports further upside in GBP/CAD.
3. RETAIL SENTIMENT
80% of retail traders are short GBP/CAD, with an average entry at 1.8551
20% long, with average entry at 1.8147
This extreme retail skew represents a contrarian bullish signal: the market may push higher to trigger stop-losses on poorly positioned shorts.
4. SEASONALITY
CAD in May:
Mixed behavior with a slight bearish/neutral tendency on 10y and 2y averages
Monthly average: as low as -0.0097 (10-year data)
GBP in May:
Historically one of the weakest months for the British pound
Average returns range between -0.015 and -0.0226
That said, 2025 appears to diverge from seasonal norms, with GBP showing relative strength across the board.
Seasonality Takeaway:
While seasonality favors CAD over GBP in May, this year’s price action and positioning override that pattern.
TRADING SUMMARY
🔹 Primary Bias: Moderately Bullish
🔹 Technical Outlook: Positive structure above key support at 1.8400
🔹 COT Insight: Supports upside due to aggressive CAD short buildup
🔹 Retail Sentiment: Skewed short → potential short squeeze
🔹 Seasonality: Bearish for GBP, but currently outweighed by fundamentals/positioning
SCENARIOS
📈 Bullish Scenario (preferred):
Break and hold above 1.8600 → acceleration toward 1.8779
Midway target: 1.8670 (psychological level)
Technical stop: Below 1.8400 (or trailing SL on breakout)
📉 Corrective Scenario:
Failure at 1.8600 → pullback to 1.8401 (bullish retest)
Deeper weakness only confirmed on break below 1.8250, which would invalidate the ascending channel
CONCLUSION
GBP/CAD is in a structurally bullish setup, backed by speculative favor toward GBP and an extreme short bias on CAD. Despite the unfavorable seasonality for GBP, the technical trend and positioning data justify a bullish outlook with a target at 1.8779, contingent on a confirmed break above 1.8600.
EUR/AUD: Rebound or Continuation of the Drop?EUR/AUD is in a critical situation after a strong bearish trend that pushed the price into a key support area. Analyzing the daily chart, we can observe that the price is testing a strong demand zone, highlighted in blue, from which a potential rebound towards the upper supply zone (in red) could emerge.
The retail sentiment confirms strong short pressure, with 82% of traders positioned on the downside. This excess pessimism suggests, from a contrarian perspective, a possible rebound. Additionally, the oscillator indicates an oversold condition, reinforcing the hypothesis of a correction.
From an institutional point of view, the COT data shows a slight reduction in long positions for both EUR and AUD, but with one detail: speculators remain predominantly long on EUR and short on AUD. Meanwhile, hedgers continue to protect themselves against a possible decline in the euro, demonstrating caution.
In terms of seasonality, May has historically been a weak month for both currencies, but in the last two years, EUR has shown a slight recovery, while AUD has demonstrated signs of stability.
Trading Strategy:
Monitor the reaction to the support zone carefully. A bullish signal in this area could pave the way for a rebound towards the upper resistance. However, a bearish breakout would confirm the ongoing downward trend.
USD/CAD: The US Dollar in a Trap! Ready for a Rebound?Technical Overview:
The monthly chart of USD/CAD shows a weakening phase of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. Currently, the price is located at a key support zone around 1.3800. The RSI suggests a potential technical rebound, but the bearish structure remains intact until the resistance at 1.4000 is broken.
Seasonality:
According to seasonal trend data, the month of May historically shows a slightly positive trend for USD/CAD:
20 years: +0.0017
15 years: -0.0027
10 years: +0.0014
5 years: +0.0039
2 years: -0.0020
This trend highlights a historical short-term weakness (2 years), while over longer periods, the movement is marginally positive.
COT Report:
COT data shows an increase in long positions on the dollar (+2,158 contracts), while short positions also increased (+2,817 contracts). This suggests uncertainty among institutional traders, with a slight inclination towards short positions.
Market Sentiment:
Data indicates that 65% of retail traders are short on USD/CAD, while only 35% are long. This could signal a potential squeeze if the price breaks above resistance levels.
Operational Conclusion:
Considering the bearish pressure and technical structure, a prudent strategy could include:
Long Entry: Above 1.4000 with confirmation on lower timeframes.
Stop Loss: Below 1.3800 to minimize exposure to false breakouts.
Primary Target: 1.4200, then 1.4400.
Alternative Strategy: If the price rejects the 1.4000 resistance, consider shorting towards 1.3700.
EUR/USD Breakdown in May: Seasonality + Smart MoneyEUR/USD Weekly Outlook – May 15, 2025
EUR/USD is showing clear signs of weakness after a sharp rejection from the key supply zone between 1.1450 and 1.1600. Last week’s candle closed decisively below the 1.1250–1.1300 structure, confirming the failure to sustain bullish momentum. The RSI has also dropped below the 40 level, signaling strong downside pressure.
From an institutional positioning standpoint, non-commercial traders are rebalancing: both longs and shorts on the euro have decreased, while spread positions have increased—suggesting hesitation and a lack of clear conviction. On the other hand, commercials remain heavily long on the euro, but this appears to be more of a hedging move than a directional bias. The US dollar is regaining strength, with new long positions added by speculative traders, aligning with the recent EUR/USD decline.
Retail sentiment shows that a majority of traders are short, but not in extreme proportions. There’s a heavy cluster of long orders between 1.1100 and 1.1050, likely serving as liquidity targets for further downside movement.
From a seasonal perspective, May is historically bearish for EUR/USD. All major seasonal timeframes (5y, 10y, 15y, 20y) point to consistent average negative performance in this month. The current 2025 trend aligns perfectly with this historical pattern, providing a statistical tailwind to the bearish thesis.
Macro-wise, today’s key US data releases—PPI and Retail Sales—could significantly impact the USD. A positive surprise would further strengthen the dollar, adding downward pressure on the pair. Market attention is also focused on Fed Chair Powell's speech later today, which could add fuel to the current move.
Conclusion: The macro, technical, sentiment, and seasonal frameworks all converge on a bearish continuation for EUR/USD. A weekly close below 1.1175 would confirm the downside extension, targeting the 1.0850–1.0700 demand zone. A break above 1.1330 would temporarily invalidate the bearish setup.
GBP/USD Bulls Are Back? Institutions Are Loading Up1. Price Action & Zone Mapping
GBP/USD is consolidating above 1.3300 after a strong bullish reaction near the demand zone between 1.3040 and 1.3150 — an area that has already rejected price twice in recent months.
While the market structure still shows lower highs, the weekly candlestick formation signals a clear loss of bearish momentum. On the upside, the 1.3500–1.3600 zone remains the key supply area to break for a structural reversal to be confirmed.
2. COT Report – Institutional Positioning (as of May 6, 2025)
Non-Commercials (speculators) added +3,320 long positions and reduced -1,956 shorts, bringing the net long to +7,683 contracts — a strong bullish signal.
Commercials remain net short, but not with increasing aggression.
👉 The net positioning supports continued bullish bias, aligned with the recent technical rebound.
3. USD Index – Opposite Positioning
Non-Commercials increased both longs and shorts slightly on the US Dollar Index, but net positioning remains neutral with a slight bearish tilt.
This suggests a phase of indecision or mild retracement in the dollar, which indirectly supports GBP/USD upside.
4. GBP/USD Seasonality – Historical Behavior in May
According to MarketBulls data, May tends to be neutral-to-weak for the pair:
15-year avg: +0.0023
5-year avg: -0.016
2-year avg: +0.0069
Overall, this supports a ranging or corrective phase — not a high-conviction trending month. A breakout may need more confirmation.
5. Retail Sentiment
Currently, 60% of retail traders are short GBP/USD, with an average price of 1.2959, while only 40% are long from 1.3337.
👉 This imbalance favors a contrarian bullish narrative, especially if the market decides to run stops below 1.3300.
✅ Operational Outlook
GBP/USD is showing bullish consolidation signs, backed by:
Increasing institutional long interest
Contrarian retail sentiment (potential fuel for rallies)
Solid demand near 1.3040–1.3150
However, neutral seasonality and lack of structural breakout advise caution. A pullback towards 1.3200–1.3150 might come before any further upside move toward 1.3500.
🔍 Preferred Play: Wait for a retest of 1.3150 with price action confirmation before entering long. A strong breakout above 1.3350 would be early confirmation of renewed bullish pressure.
GBP/JPY Breaks Above 196.00! Continuation or Distribution?Detailed Techno-Macro Analysis – GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY has just completed a significant weekly structure breakout, pushing through a key supply zone between 195.00 and 196.30 — an area that historically acted as strong resistance. The breakout occurred via a high-volatility daily candle that closed above the zone, indicating strong bullish pressure.
🔍 Structure & Price Action
Price action shows higher lows and higher highs: a clearly defined bullish structure.
The breakout originated from an accumulation base, following a false bearish breakout below 188.50 (bull trap).
RSI is around 70 on the daily timeframe → strong momentum, but signs of potential exhaustion.
🧠 Key Zones Identified
Current weekly supply: 195.00 – 196.80 (being tested)
Next resistance: 198.70 – 199.50 (swing high and monthly level)
Immediate support: 194.00 – 192.80 (ideal area for pullback and long setups)
Structural support: 190.50 – 188.80
Invalidation: Daily close below 191.00 → potential reversal signal
📈 Macro & Fundamental Context
🇬🇧 UK Macro Update
Wages rising: +5.5% (above expectations) → could support further monetary tightening
Claimant count increasing → early weakness in the labor market
Mixed data, but wage growth bias favors GBP strength
🇯🇵 JPY Still Weak
BoJ remains ultra-accommodative
Verbal interventions from Japanese officials haven’t yet had structural impact
🪙 Retail Sentiment
70% of retail traders are short GBP/JPY, with an average price of 190.59
Only 30% are long, with an average price of 194.65
➡️ Current price (196.30) is above both → retail squeeze in play. Contrarian setup confirmed.
🧾 COT Report
GBP (Non-Commercial Speculators):
Long: +3,320 contracts
Short: -1,956 contracts
➡️ Net long positions increasing → favorable institutional exposure
JPY:
Mixed positions, with increases in both long and short → institutional neutrality on the yen
📅 Seasonality – GBP/JPY
May is historically bearish on both 5Y and 20Y timeframes:
5Y: -2.52%
20Y: -0.43%
Only the 2Y pattern shows a positive return
➡️ Negative seasonality vs. bullish technical structure → conflict worth watching
🔍 Execution Summary
The bullish breakout is strong and supported by sentiment and institutional positioning, but price is now entering a potential distribution zone, where profit-taking could increase.
👉 Main scenario: technical pullback toward 194.00–192.80 for possible long entries, targeting 198.50–199.50
👉 Alternative scenario: daily close below 191.00 → bias reversal and bearish continuation
The Yen’s Comeback Starts Here—and it Seems the COT Knew First1. Introduction: A Market Everyone Gave Up On
For a while, the Japanese Yen looked like a lost cause. After topping out in early 2021, Yen futures (6J1!) began an unrelenting slide, shedding value week after week like an old coat in spring. Traders stopped asking, “Where’s support?” and started asking, “How low can it go?”
The macro backdrop didn’t help. The Bank of Japan clung to ultra-loose monetary policy, even as the Fed hiked aggressively. Speculators piled on shorts. The Yen was a one-way ticket down, and no one seemed interested in punching the brakes.
But beneath that apathy, a quieter shift was underway. While price kept bleeding, trader positioning began to hint at something different—something the chart didn’t show yet. And if you were watching the Commitments of Traders (COT) report closely enough, you might’ve seen it.
2. The COT Trend That No One Was Watching
The COT report isn’t glamorous. It’s slow, lagging by a few days, and rarely makes headlines. But for those who track what the big players are doing—those large enough to be required to report their positions—it’s a treasure trove of subtle clues.
One of those clues is Total Reportable Positions. This metric tells us how active large market participants really are—regardless of whether they’re long or short. When that number is dropping, it suggests the “big dogs” are losing interest. When it starts climbing again? Someone’s gearing up to play.
From 2021 through most of 2024, Total Reportable Positions in 6J were in a steady decline—mirroring the slow death of the Yen's bullish case. But in late 2024, something changed. Using a simple linear regression channel on this COT data, a clear breakout emerged. Positioning was picking up again—for the first time in nearly three years.
And it wasn’t just a bounce. It was a structural shift.
3. Did Price Listen?
Yes—and no. Price didn't immediately explode higher. But the structure began to change. The market stopped making new lows. Weekly closes began to cluster above support. And importantly, a Zig Zag analysis started marking a pattern of higher lows—the first signs of accumulation.
Here’s where the chart really gets interesting: the timing of the COT breakout coincided almost perfectly with a key UFO support at 0.0065425—a price level that also marked the bottom in COT Traders Total Reportable Longs. This adds a powerful layer of confirmation: institutional orders weren’t just showing up in the data—they were leaving footprints on the chart.
And above? There’s a UFO resistance level at 0.0075395. If the Yen continues to climb, that could be a significant price level where early longs may choose to lighten up.
4. The Contract Behind the Story
Before we go deeper, let’s talk about what you’re actually trading when you pull the trigger on Yen Futures.
The CME Japanese Yen futures (6J) contract represents 12.5 million Japanese Yen, and each tick move—just 0.0000005 per JPY—is worth $6.25. It’s precise, it’s liquid, and for traders who like to build macro positions or take advantage of carry flows, it’s a staple.
As of May 2025, margin requirements hover around ~$3,800 (Always double-check with your broker or clearing firm—these numbers shift from time to time.)
But maybe you’re not managing seven-figure accounts. Maybe you just want to test this setup with more flexibility. That’s where the Micro JPY/USD Futures (MJY) come in.
Contract size: 1/10th the size of 6J
Tick move: 0.000001 per JPY increment = $1.25
Same market structure, tighter margin requirement around ~$380 per contract
Important note: The COT report aggregates positioning across the whole futures market—it doesn’t separate out micro traders from full-size. So yes, the data still applies. And yes, it still matters.
5. Lessons from the Shift
This isn’t about hindsight bias. The value in this setup isn’t that the Yen happened to bounce—it’s how Total Reportable Positions broke trend before price did.
Here are the real takeaways:
COT data may or may not be predictive—but it is insightful. When positioning starts expanding after a long contraction, it often signals renewed interest or risk-taking. That’s tradable information.
Technical support and resistance as well as highs and lows give context. Without them, COT breakouts can feel theoretical. With them, you have real, observable UFO levels where institutions may act—and where you can plan.
6. Watchlist Insights: Where This Might Work Again
You don’t have to wait for another yen setup to apply this framework. The same structure can help you scout for early positioning shifts across the CME product universe.
Here’s a simple filter to start building your own COT watchlist:
✅ Look for markets where:
Price has been in a long, clean downtrend (or uptrend)
Total Reportable Positions are falling—but starting to reverse
A breakout occurs in positioning trend (draw a regression channel and watch for a clean violation)
A key support or resistance lines up with recent extremes in COT positioning
Whether it's crude oil, corn, or euro FX, this template gives you a framework for exploration.
🎯 Want to See More Setups Like This?
We’re just getting started. If this breakdown opened your eyes to new ways of using COT reports, UFO levels, and multi-dimensional trade setups, keep watching this space.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
XAU/USD: Institutional Accumulation or New Bearish Impulse?Technical Context:
The graphical analysis shows that the price of gold (XAU/USD) is currently consolidating within a significant demand zone following the recent bullish impulse. The daily chart shows an attempt to bounce off the 3,300 USD zone, a key psychological level.
Volume and COT Analysis:
The latest COT data (April 29, 2025) indicates a slight reduction in long positions by non-commercial operators (-18,519 contracts), balanced by an increase in commercial long positions (+1,659 contracts), signaling potential institutional accumulation.
On the retail sentiment front, traders are slightly more exposed to the downside (51% short vs. 49% long), which could indicate a potential short squeeze if the price resumes an upward trend.
Seasonal Trends:
According to data, May historically shows mixed performances with an average of +9.83% over the last 10 years, but with significant fluctuations between longer and more recent periods.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 3,380 - 3,400 USD (previous distribution zone)
Support: 3,300 USD (current demand zone) and 3,050 USD (secondary support)
Trading Strategy:
Bullish Scenario: Buy above 3,340 USD with a target at 3,400 USD and a stop loss below 3,300 USD.
Bearish Scenario: Sell below 3,300 USD with a target at 3,050 USD and a stop loss above 3,340 USD.
USD/JPY: Ready for a Rally or a False Recovery?USD/JPY is at a crucial stage, with the price hovering around 143.900. After a bearish move, the market is attempting to recover, aiming for the resistance zone between 149.000 and 151.000.
COT Insight:
COT data shows a slight increase in long positions among speculative traders (+397), while commercials are increasing their short coverage (+539), indicating caution.
Seasonality:
Historically, May has been a slightly bullish month for USD/JPY (+0.42% over the last 10 years), but the trend has been negative in the last 5 years (-0.57%), indicating uncertainty.
Retail Sentiment:
65% of retail traders are long, which could indicate potential bearish pressure in case of opposite moves, given the risk of position liquidation.
Conclusion:
Carefully monitor the price reaction around 144.000. A breakout towards 149.000 could signal a significant move, but the long retail pressure might represent an obstacle.
GBPNZD: Support Rebound! Target 2.26 on the Horizon? The weekly chart of GBPNZD shows a consolidation phase following a strong bearish impulse. The price has reacted positively from the support area around 2.2200, forming a significant bullish candle that could indicate a rebound towards the resistance area at 2.2600. The positive momentum suggests a possible test of the intermediate resistance at 2.2500, with the RSI gradually rising from an oversold zone.
Fundamental Analysis
According to the COT data updated as of April 29, 2025, we observe an increase in long positions on GBP by institutional traders, with an increment of +10,665 contracts. On the other hand, commercial traders (hedgers) continue to maintain a significant short exposure on GBP. This imbalance may suggest a potential short-term speculative interest in a bullish GBP move.
Regarding NZD, the latest COT report shows a significant increase in commercial long positions (+3,884 contracts), indicating a strengthening of the New Zealand dollar. However, the overall market sentiment shows a prevalence of short positions on GBPNZD (59% short vs. 41% long), suggesting that retail traders might be on the wrong side of the market.
Seasonal Analysis
Historically, in May, GBP tends to show weakness (-0.0076 over the last 20 years), while NZD does not show a clear seasonal pattern. This could reduce the likelihood of a decisive GBP movement during this month.
Operational Strategy
The rebound from 2.2200 could favor the opening of long positions with the first target at 2.2500 and the second target at 2.2600. The stop loss could be placed below the key support at 2.2100. In case of a resistance breakout, an extension towards the 2.2700 area would be plausible.
GBP/USD: Is the Bullish Impulse Over?The daily chart shows a significant bullish impulse that encountered strong resistance in the 1.3350 - 1.3400 area, where multiple supply levels and an important institutional selling zone are located. The bearish structure remains intact below this level, suggesting a potential decline towards the key support at 1.3100 - 1.3150. The short bias strengthens with the confirmation of resistance and the formation of a potential reversal.
COT Report (USD Index and GBP/USD)
USD Index: Non-commercial traders are slightly increasing long positions (+397) while reducing short positions (-128). This suggests a potential recovery of dollar strength, supporting a bearish move on GBP/USD.
GBP/USD: Non-commercials have significantly increased short positions (+6,426) and reduced long positions (-2,957), indicating a bearish sentiment. Commercials also show a slight increase in short positions (+5,070), confirming potential weakness in the pound.
Retail Sentiment
57% of retail traders are short on GBP/USD, with an average price of 1.2916, while 43% are long at 1.3343. This imbalance could indicate a market attempt to capture stops above recent highs before a reversal.
Seasonality
Historically, the month of May shows a negative performance for GBP/USD. The 5, 10, and 15-year seasonal data indicate a consistent decline during this period, supporting the hypothesis of bearish pressure.
They Were 84% Short — Here's What Happened Next on GBPAUDThis is not just a simple breakout — this is what happens when data, price action, and psychology align with surgical precision.
Today, we entered a long position on GBPAUD directly from a well-defined weekly demand zone. The setup was already technically solid, but what made it exceptional was the alignment of multiple institutional-grade factors:
✅ Weekly demand zone respected to the pip, with proven historical sensitivity
✅ Change of structure on the H1 chart, confirming a short-term reversal from a deeply discounted area
✅ COT data showing a clear build-up of commercial long positions on the British pound
✅ AUD net positioning deep in negative territory, with declining open interest and no signs of reversal
✅ Retail sentiment: 84% of traders short on GBPAUD according to MyFxBook → strong contrarian signal
✅ Seasonality: GBP tends to outperform AUD during May and June
The result? A rapid and aggressive bullish impulse that allowed us to move the stop loss to break-even just a few hours after entry.
📌 Current trade status:
➤ Long from the demand zone
➤ SL at BE = zero risk
➤ Monitoring price action above 2.07 for potential continuation
🎯 Mid-term target zone: 2.1150–2.1300, with focus on liquidity clusters and previous inefficiencies as potential magnets.
This is how you build trades that are not just reactive, but proactive — based on multiple layers of confluence and edge, not on emotions or noise.
GOLD - Smart Money Selling, Retail Chasing Longs📉 Technical Context:
Price has reacted precisely to the 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone between 3,386–3,442 USD, aligning with a clear weekly supply zone and imbalance. The current market structure suggests a potential lower high, with the first target around 3,060 USD, and the second near 2,880–2,900 USD demand.
🧠 COT Report (as of April 29, 2025):
Non-Commercials (speculators) cut 18,519 long contracts, signaling waning bullish conviction.
Commercials (hedgers) increased shorts by +9,848 contracts, maintaining a bearish contrarian stance.
📊 Retail Sentiment (MyFxBook):
65% of retail traders are short from 3,062, while 35% are long from 3,184 — ideal environment for a bull trap before reversal.
📅 Seasonality (Market Bulls):
May is historically weak:
10Y: -9.98%
5Y: -12.21%
Strength historically returns in June/July → a correction before continuation is likely.
✅ Conclusion:
Technical structure, macro context, and positioning all align for a high-probability short.
📍 Entry Zone: 3,420–3,440
🔒 Stop: Above ATH (3,500)
🎯 Targets:
TP1: 3,060
TP2: 2,900
Institutions Are Loading EUR/NZDIn the current market context, EURNZD is showing a highly compelling technical and fundamental structure for both short- and medium-term opportunities. After a prolonged retracement from the March highs, the price has strongly reacted from a clearly defined weekly demand zone between 1.8712 and 1.8600.
From a technical perspective, this reaction aligns with a moderate RSI divergence and a still intact macro bullish market structure, despite the corrective nature of recent weeks.
However, what truly validates this setup goes beyond price action alone. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data strongly supports the long thesis. On the euro side, we observe a significant increase in commercial long positions (+14,659 contracts), signaling institutional hedging activity. At the same time, non-commercials (speculators) have been cutting their short positions, suggesting growing expectations of euro strength.
On the NZD side, the picture is even more decisive: non-commercials maintain a net short position of -40,444 contracts, with a further reduction in long positions. The speculative sentiment toward the NZD is clearly bearish and shows no signs of short-term reversal.
Adding to this, retail sentiment data currently shows that 59% of retail traders are short on EURNZD. From a contrarian perspective, this is particularly bullish — the crowd is selling while smart money is buying.
Seasonality also supports the setup: historically, the months of May and June have been positive for the euro and negative for the NZD, adding an additional statistical layer of confluence to the trade idea.
🎯 Conclusion
We may be witnessing the early stages of a new bullish leg on EURNZD. The 1.89 area represents a potential re-entry zone in the event of a retest. The medium-term target is set between 1.9300 and 1.9500.
Technical structure, institutional positioning, retail sentiment, and seasonality all align in favor of a clear bullish bias in the coming weeks.
Did They Buy the Bottom? EUR/USD Set for Another Reversal!After an explosive bounce from the 1.0800–1.0850 demand zone, EUR/USD is now in a key structural retest around 1.1300. The COT data shows a net increase in long positions by Non-Commercials, but with the Dollar still holding structural strength in its own COT report and an RSI showing bearish divergence, this area may act as a key zone for price discovery.
📊 WHAT THE DATA SAYS:
📉 Price Action: Clear rejection from the 1.1450–1.1550 supply zone. Retest at key structure near 1.1300.
📑 COT (EURO): Net long positions up by +183 (196,388 long vs 120,591 short) = bullish tone.
📑 COT (USD): Still balanced, but Non-Commercials are reducing net longs → potential weakening.
📊 Retail Sentiment (MyFXBook): 70% retail traders are short = contrarian long bias remains.
🌱 Seasonality (May): Historically negative for EUR/USD (–0.0088) = potential downside pressure ahead.
📌 Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.1450 / 1.1550 (Supply Zone)
Support: 1.1300 (Structural retest) — 1.0850 (Strong demand)
📉 BASE SCENARIO: Pullback toward 1.1100–1.1050 before renewed long accumulation.
📈 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO: Break above 1.1450 could target 1.1600–1.1720 zone.
🔍 Watch out for May's seasonal inversion and extreme speculative positioning — fakeouts may precede real directional moves.
Is Platinum About to Explode? Imminent Rally!Platinum (PL1!) is currently in a technically and macroeconomically compelling setup. After a prolonged consolidation between 872–921, price has reacted strongly, forming a clear accumulation pattern supported by institutional positioning and favorable seasonality.
📈 1. Technical Analysis: Accumulation and Potential Breakout
The weekly chart shows a strong demand zone that has been defended multiple times over the past year. Following a deep pullback in April, price has formed a harmonic compression structure and broke to the upside with conviction. The area between 1010 and 1040 stands out as the first major historical supply zone — previously rejected but now looking increasingly vulnerable.
📉 2. COT Report: Institutions Repositioning Long
The COT data as of April 22 shows a clear increase in long positions from commercial traders (+1,177 contracts), while non-commercials maintain a net long bias. Total open interest rose by over 1,500 contracts — a strong sign of renewed speculative interest in Platinum.
✅ Conclusion
Platinum is showing strong confluence across technicals, institutional positioning, and historical seasonal behavior. The probability of a bullish extension in Q2 2025 is high. This is a setup worth watching closely in the coming days.
