GBPUSD - for the month of AUGUSTGet Ready for pound to take a shit throughout AUGUST...
The Launch happened today........
The sentiment is mixed, but the commercials are loading up according to latest COT report,
Also if you have a look at Seasonality AUGUST historically is the worst month for anything against the dollar...
Cot-report
jUNE 6TH COT report screenshot Micro Bitcoin. Let's analyze the data.
For Bitcoin (Futures Only) on June 6, 2023:
The total open interest is 13,026 contracts.
Non-commercial traders (speculators) hold a net long position of 10,106 contracts, compared to 9,337 contracts in the previous report.
Commercial traders hold a net short position of 1,383 contracts, compared to 1,561 contracts in the previous report.
The net change in commitments from the previous report shows an increase in net long positions held by non-commercial traders and a decrease in net short positions held by commercial traders.
The percentage of open interest represented by non-commercial traders is 77.6% long and 71.7% short, while commercial traders represent 10.6% long and 12.0% short.
The largest traders (4 or less and 8 or less) hold 58.0% and 33.7% of the net positions, respectively.
For Micro Bitcoin (Futures Only) on June 6, 2023:
The total open interest is 7,600 contracts.
Non-commercial traders (speculators) hold a net long position of 4,507 contracts, compared to 6,065 contracts in the previous report.
Commercial traders hold a net short position of 0 contracts, compared to 172 contracts in the previous report.
The net change in commitments from the previous report shows a decrease in net long positions held by non-commercial traders and a decrease in net short positions held by commercial traders.
The percentage of open interest represented by non-commercial traders is 59.3% long and 79.8% short, while commercial traders represent 2.3% long and 6.0% short.
The largest traders (4 or less and 8 or less) hold 24.8% and 54.6% of the net positions, respectively.
These figures provide insights into the sentiment and positioning of different trader groups in the Bitcoin futures market. However, please note that COT reports are just one of many factors to consider when analyzing market trends and making trading decisions.
May 30th Cot report looks interesting Based on the COT report data, the changes in commercial positions are as follows:
Long positions: Increased by 83 contracts
Short positions: Decreased by 538 contracts
To calculate the net positions, you subtract the short positions from the long positions. In this case, the net positions for commercials can be calculated as follows:
Net positions = Long positions - Short positions
Net positions = 83 - (-538)
Net positions = 621
Therefore, the net positions for commercials are 621 contracts. It indicates an increase in net long positions for commercials, not net short positions.
Based on the provided COT report data, the changes in non-commercial positions are as follows:
Long positions: Decreased by 1,084 contracts
Short positions: Decreased by 378 contracts
To calculate the net positions, you subtract the short positions from the long positions. In this case, the net positions for non-commercials can be calculated as follows:
Net positions = Long positions - Short positions
Net positions = -1,084 - (-378)
Net positions = -706
Therefore, the net positions for non-commercials are -706 contracts. It indicates a decrease in net long positions for non-commercials, but keep in mind that the value is negative, indicating a net short position for non-commercials in this case .
Let's analyze the data for Bitcoin Micro (Code-133742) based on the provided COT report:
Total open interest: 6,569 contracts
Non-Commercial Positions:
Long positions: 3,803 contracts
Short positions: 5,543 contracts
Spreading positions: 214 contracts
Commercial Positions:
Long positions: 145 contracts
Short positions: 0 contracts
Net Positions:
To calculate the net positions, you subtract the short positions from the long positions. In this case, the net positions for non-commercials can be calculated as follows:
Net positions = Long positions - Short positions
Net positions = 3,803 - 5,543
Net positions = -1,740
Therefore, the net positions for non-commercials in Bitcoin Micro are -1,740 contracts, indicating a net short position.
Changes from May 23, 2023:
Long positions: Decreased by 2,596 contracts
Short positions: Decreased by 2,412 contracts
Percent of Open Interest:
Non-commercial long positions: 57.9% of open interest
Non-commercial short positions: 84.4% of open interest
Commercial long positions: 3.3% of open interest
Commercial short positions: 2.2% of open interest
Number of Traders:
Non-commercial traders: 50
Commercial traders: 31
Percent of Open Interest Held by the Largest Traders:
Long positions: 14.8% held by 4 or less traders, 24.4% held by 8 or less traders
Short positions: 60.3% held by 4 or less traders, 72.7% held by 8 or less traders
Overall, the COT report suggests that non-commercial traders in Bitcoin Micro have a net short position, and there has been a decrease in both long and short positions compared to the previous reporting period.
Following reports of the first 6 months cycle to ATHThe COT Report (Commitments of Traders Report) is a weekly report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that shows the aggregate holdings of different market participants in the futures market.
Looking at the COT report for Bitcoin futures on the CME, we can see that as of May 16, 2023, non-commercial traders (speculators) held a net long position of 10,055 contracts, which is an increase of 28 contracts from the previous week. Meanwhile, commercial traders (hedgers) held a net short position of 1,626 contracts, which is an increase of 262 contracts from the previous week.
The increase in the net long position of non-commercial traders suggests that they are bullish on the price of Bitcoin, while the increase in the net short position of commercial traders suggests that they are bearish on the price of Bitcoin.
Non-commercial traders (speculators) held a net long position of 10,055 contracts Net long
Commercial traders (hedgers) held a net short position of 1,626 contracts Net Short
In general, commercial traders are likely to move more capital on the market than non-commercial traders. Commercial traders are typically large institutions, such as banks and corporations, that use futures markets to hedge their commercial activities and manage their price risk. They are often considered to be "smart money" traders because they have access to more information and resources than individual traders.
On the other hand, non-commercial traders are typically speculators who are looking to profit from changes in the market price of the underlying asset. While non-commercial traders may also move significant amounts of capital on the market, their positions are generally smaller than those of commercial traders.
It's important to note, however, that the amount of capital moved by commercial and non-commercial traders can vary depending on a number of factors, including market conditions, the size of individual positions, and the overall sentiment of the market.
While the market is showing Bearish momentum for the past for weeks commercials are slithly offloading their long positions, while retail traders remains more optimistic, But looking at btc monthly cycles, Could be setting up for stop hunt around March low or a setup that might build a higer low in september October when we usually see a low and a pump.
DYOR
Cot Report Chatgpt is broken Here are the net short positions held by the commercials in Bitcoin futures markets for the given period:
April 11th: Net short position of 969 contracts
April 18th: Net short position of 1,181 contracts
April 25th: Net short position of 1,500 contracts
May 3rd: Net short position of 1,424 contracts
During this period, the net short positions held by commercials experienced fluctuations. From April 11th to April 18th, there was an increase in net short positions, indicating a more bearish sentiment among commercial traders. However, from April 18th to April 25th, there was another increase in net short positions, indicating a further bearish sentiment.
From April 25th to May 3rd, there was a slight decrease in net short positions, suggesting a slight reduction in bearish sentiment among commercial traders.
Finally, on May 6th, the latest COT report showed that the net short positions held by large speculators increased by 500 contracts, while the net short positions held by small speculators decreased by 1,500 contracts
May 6th Net short position 1424 + 500 =1924 contracts short
Based on the COT reports from April 11th to May 3rd, the commercials (i.e., producers, merchants, processors, and users of Bitcoin) have held a net long position in Bitcoin futures.
Here are the net long and net short positions of the commercials in Bitcoin futures markets for the period between April 11th and May 3rd:
April 11th: Net long position of 799 contracts
April 18th: Net long position of 1,017 contracts
April 25th: Net long position of 1,534 contracts
May 3rd: Net long position of 1,743 contracts
Finally, on May 6th, the latest COT report showed that the net long positions held by large speculators decreased by 1,000 contracts, indicating that some institutional investors may have started to take profits or reduce their exposure to Bitcoin futures markets. However, the net long positions held by small speculators increased by 1,000 contracts, suggesting that retail traders remained optimistic about Bitcoin's future price movements.
May 6th: Net long position 1743-1000 = 743 contracts
Now TODAY Chatgpt is broken can browse is o more assistant asking me to do all the research myself, might just use google then
Unfortunately, the COT report does not provide the net long positions held by commercials. It only provides the net positions (long and short) held by three types of traders: commercial traders, non-commercial traders (large speculators), and non-reportable traders (small speculators).
The latest COT report as of May 9th, 2023, shows that commercial traders had a net short position of 1,364 contracts in Bitcoin futures markets.
Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) as of May 9th, 2023, here are the net long positions for Bitcoin and Micro Bitcoin contracts:
Bitcoin Futures:
Commercial net long position: 233 contracts
Non-commercial net long position: 10,027 contracts
Micro Bitcoin Futures:
Commercial net long position: 256 contracts
Non-commercial net long position: 5,915 contracts
Please note that these numbers represent the net long positions held by commercial and non-commercial traders as of May 9th, 2023.
Short Idea for GBPUSDThe US dollar fluctuated between 95.6 and 96.6 last month. Traders' confusion over interest rate hikes, as well as duplicity in talks with the Federal Reserve, have kept the dollar afloat. But given the job data, the CPI data, which shows inflation well, has kept traders believing that the US Federal Reserve will soon plan to raise interest rates. Therefore, according to the picture above, we predict the upward movement of the dollar index.
With this rise and strengthening of the dollar as soon as possible, we can see better GBPUSD currency pairs.
As we can see, this currency pair is located in a descending channel and now the roof of this channel is at the LH point.
Also, by examining the COT data, the net positions of the British pound are still 50,719 selling positions, which will continue the decline of this currency. Also, compared to last week, the 6967 trading position is closed and makes this currency pair have a short rise.
GBPUSD COT data
What we have see on USDJPY, It will be fall to the 112 areaHey friends, and trader
We forecast downside movement for the USDJPY for several reasons
1. USD is overbought and over-priced in 2 months ago
2. JPY is oversold and this is a good and cheap price for this safe-haven currency
3. Smart buyers are buying in these prrices.
4. As you see in the picture, The non-commercial traders usually are buyers in these prices cause the JPY is being valuable in these prices.
5. Buy trend line is broken in the H4 time frame
so if you are a swing trader or long-term trader it's a good opportunity for you.
Good Lock, Wish you money
With respect
Ali Sabbaghi
ziwox.com