COT
The Euro Index (EXY) Here on the Euro Index we have a 222 pattern that formed. what i like to see is that this pattern lines up with the COT report that was released Monday due to July 4th (United States Birthday :D 'merica) being observed on July 3rd. in the circles we have three potential bearish star patterns printing on the PRZ which is a resistance level. depending on how today closes!
The COT shows the same thing. this is the first time we have seen some profit taking and contract deliveries by both the commercials and non-commercials. The Commercials delivered about 14k contracts while the non-commercials took profit on about 10k orders. the net data is as follows:
Commercials: Current = (147,128)// Previous= (162,540)
Non-Coms: Current= 98, 955// Previous= 118,448
EURUSD ShortFrom the latest EURFX COT report we can see that there is an increase in the short contracts since last week. Till last week we were at record numbers for long contract positions, so a change in the direction is very likely to happen soon.
Now: The price tried to break above the monthly critical area.
There are 2 scenarios:
1. The most likely one to happen is to see a downside move towards the 1.12232 mark. Critical zones to watch out for are the 1.12863 where we can see a sup/res zone + the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement and the second trendline as well. A good entry may be the neckline at the 1.13050 mark. It will also confirm the final stage of the current 1h “M” formation.
2. If the price goes above the highs from yesterday a move towards the upper highs of the monthly critical is a possibility.
Happy Trading!
Gold, needs to rest?Gold is struggling for five weeks now, and couldn't break the highs. Maybe it is the time to rest a little for bullish move starting mid July.
NZDUSD BULLISH EXTREMESThe chart explains it all. The bullish run for the NZD may be short lived by seasonal forecast, extreme net positions of Non commercial traders and possible bearish bond yield spread
GBP/ JPY (Pound/ Yen) Here on the Pound Yen we have a Nice Gartley Pattern that is formed. The PRZ has been tested and now we are waiting for entry.
*** Insert Personal aside here>>> Now, Harmonics gets a lot of slack from the trading community for various reasons, but i still think @ScottCarney is one of the greatest Market Technicians still alive. He was able to study previous writings from W.D. Gann (still one of the greatest ever with one of the greatest track records ever with a year of 490 something trades taken and 490 something trades won like a 2% loss ratio) Elliot, and other great technicians, and create a trading methodology that is pretty accurate if done correctly and has also created much controversy too. I do recognize other systems work as well but Harmonics is what works for ME just makes sense to me.***
Now with every methodology a trade can go in one of three ways up, down, sideways. This pattern has shown us that the PRZ is valid due to the consolidation so we know that the level is valid. The red box is a large candle and our current resistance zone with the Green Zone as our support. I am waiting for the right candle pattern or formation for entry and wil check the oscillators for confirmation. Based on the COT the pound is expected to weaken so if this pattern does present an oppritunity for entry at the first sign of weakness get your pips and run!
GBP/ CAD (Cable/ Loonie) Here on the Pound Cad we have a gorgeous Bat pattern. Right now we See PA respecting the PRZ by throwing Indecesion Candles. Now, whether the pattern works in our favor is a different story but what we do know is the level is valid as PA raced into the PRZ and is now tangled up. im honestly looking for this Current Candle to close as a Bullish Spinning Top or Doji to justify an enterance. Based on the oscillators at the bottom of the screen im waiting for those too. but more emphasis on PA! Will Update as time draws closer to entry!
EUR/GBPhere on the Euro/ Pound (EUR/ GBP) we have a nice crab pattern i drew out the other day (Sunday I think) and i have been waiting to enter the trade and missed my opportunity for the type 1 move so now im waiting for the T2 move. the trade is currently 20-ish pips in profit for the T1 setup! the yellow line is the HOP for this pattern. based on the COT report once this trade looks like its reversing take your pips and get out. the COT suggest that the Euro is to move up and the pound is to move down. So, this is a contrarian trade and to be managed automatically due to the large orders for both pairs based on the COT.
$YM_S (E-Mini DJI) inspirated by bottomcatcher$YM1
COT on E-MIni DJI shows recent Commercials(Prod/User) traders massive long indexes.
I could only get the COT data back to 2010, since then it was only 5 times when Prod/User traders went long $YM_F.
2010 June, 2011 Sep, 2015 Sep, 2016 Feb, and now.
You can see that when DJI is below 200 weekly MA, Prod/User traders long indexes and, above that they short indexes. Very simple.
The only difference this time is, DJI is above 200 weekly MA but they still hold long massively. Fed QE infinity let them buy equities at least in the MT timeframe.
EXY (Euro Index) Technical and COT Analysis Here on the EXY The Euro Index we have the daily and weekly outlook. Now, the euro is playing off a 222 pattern off the Daily chart and the price level is quite significant. Now, for those who have been looking at my charts for quite sometime you will know i hate oscilitaors but until i get candlestick charting down a bit better i use them as a form of confirmation. So, with all being said on both the weekly and daily we have bearish signals.
So, on the weekly ***insert personal aside here>>> I have been doing a lot of reading based on Steve Nison's work on Candlestick charting. I own his first book and found his second and his Candle Stick Chart Course book with the help from a friend on here TradingView. I am re-reading all his books to refresh my memory or learing something new*** we have a large resistance area that was made up by two weeks of strong selling. Once PA made it near the top of the resistance area PA started to break down. We know have a few weeks now of indecesion candles with this past week trowing a doji candle. From a techinical standpoint I am expecting price to dip down to the red line which is an 88 candle swing point. So, if this coming week is a bearish one then expect more bearish sentiment until we hit the pending orders of the Big Players having their buy orders near or in a support area indicated on the COT Report (which i will discuss in a bit)
Next, on the Daily chart we have a 222 Pattern that has completed and is still in play. it has completed its T1 setup so we can either see more downward movement to the target 2 or a retrace to the PRZ and then a push to the lowside for Target 2 to be hit. Seeing the indication of the weekly Candles i am epecting more downside rather than up!
For the COT Data...
This is reason i think we havent hit the pending orders of the Big Players, we have for the past few weeks seen the Commercials Increase their shorts but pice is still moving down. Now, for my COT fans Commercials go aganst the trend to lock in a particular rate or price to protect their physical profit made from day to day business. The commercial Shorts have increased their positions by 10k orders and the net data will be displayed later. The non-commercials are still buying from the Commercials but were not seeing any movement to support these numbers. Now, Unless we are seeing some major COT Manipulation by opening orders and quicly closing them before they get filled is one way, or the side im willing to say is more likely is that we havent filled the orders yet and price is still drifting aimlessly. I assume once we start filling these orders we will see some major volatility and start moving in the right direction which would support more downward movement for a cheaper price before we go up
COT Net Data
Commercials: Current (162,540) // Previous (155,035)
Non-Commercials: Current = 118,448 // Previous = 117,132
Again, i think we will see some downturn based on the techincals then we will hit the pendings of the Non-Commercials in a support zone and then off to the races! So at the moment short then a major support level hit Pendings filled and then we move up for a... w h i l e!
GBP/ AUD (Cable Aussie) Here on the Cable Aussie we have two patterns one i drew and another one from the Software. What im looking for is this current 4 hour candle to close as an engulfing candle at the very minimum a piercing pattern. I will also be looking for the oscillator confirmation. the pattern is a butterfly pattern i have drawn and i think the software picked up either a bat or 222 pattern.
Now, on the COT the Pound is still controlled by the commercials buying it but they are stepping closer and closer to the Zero Line every week which a big ship like the Pound takes a long time to turn around. the Non-Commercials are almost to the Zero Line and are eager to finally drive the Cable Up. The Euro is a strong buy and i have been suspecting the Pound to follow. Since the Switch has yet to occur proper R2R should be used. but since both sides are stepping closer to the Zero Line the pound should start to rise early as the Non-Commercials start buying it up. The Aussie is still a sell but this week both commercials and non-commercials have taken profit or delivered on contracts. I do feel this pair will be subjective to strong swings this coming week as which ever side decides to open a position will cause the pair to move that way if filled. other than that i do think the AUD will be a slow moving pair this week and future weeks to come until there is a definitive move in one direction or the other.
EXY (Euro Index) Euro Here on the Euro Index we have a Gartley Pattern that has completed and completed a T1 set up! I think we are going to see PA retrace into the PRZ. From a techinical standpoint.
Now on to the COT Data.
The COT indicates that the Euro is still a strong buy! The big players are still increasing their positions fueling the trend up on the Euro. Selling the Euro long term right no is probably not the most adviseable. This does not surprise me as the DXY just flipped to a bearish market and the Euro is driving higher. the Euro makes up 50-ish% of the DXY.
the follwong is the COT net Data:
Commercials: Current== (155k) // previous== (133k)
Non-Coms: Current== 117k // previous== 95, 649
I have been slow posting recently becasue as some might have seen i have been saying i have wanted to add fundamentals to my trading and i had a friend of mine here on trading view provide some good reading material on fundamentals. Once i finally finish up some of my readings i will be more active!
DXY (Dollar Index) The Dixie Okay, The King Dollar! we have a bullish crab pattern that has completed it first target. The Crab pattern completed a T1 set up all. PA marched all the way to the 382 and reversed almost not a pip more either. we had a few trades happen above the 382 but not many! This week we could see some good down moves on the dollar, maybe all the way down to the Crab PRZ. This is in part that the sides have switched. The Commercials have started buying the pair overall and the non-commercials are selling which will drive prices lower on the Dollar. With this in mind there is a good chance that the stock market will have a good week this week as the stock indexes are contraian to the DXY.
So, all my trades for the dollar this week and maybe for the near future are going to be more short biased.
The Net Data is as follows:
Commercials- Current== 5,142 // Previous== (5,328)
Non-Commercials- Current == (5,344) // Previous== 4,689
CXY (Canadian Dollar Index) Loonie So on the CXY we have an incomplete Bat Pattern we see PA enterered the PRZ and was severly rejected without completing the pattern. We need the entire box to be tested before the pattern is complete.
So, on the COT what we have are the Consumers and Producers buying and selling to eachother. As open interest has increased but the Non-Coms have reduced both their sides respectively while both sides of the commercials have increased thiers. if you were just looking at the Net Positions it would look as if the commercials are stepping to the Zero Line and the Non-Coms are stepping away from the Zero Line, but looking at the Line items the Commercials both have increased their positions, and the Non-Coms have reduced their positions. Now, interestingly enough the Non-Coms spread have increased thier Net-position. Now, normally we dont really pay attention to the spread as they are playing both sides of the plate. For example one company could be buying and selling the same currency. So, the Loonie might be stuck in a range this week so as a harmonic trader the CAD might be a pair I monitor closley as the Harmonic Trading strategy is best in a ranging market.
The COT Net Data:
Commercials- Current== 24,363 // Previous== 25,110
Non-Coms- Current== (25,486) // Previous== (24,829)
BXY (British Pound Index) Cable On the Cable we have it where the pair completed a Alternate Bat pattern but not before it tested the Patterns Harmonic Optimal Price. The price gapped down and slid ever since. This is the First time in a few days where there was a bullish day and i do believe there will be more. both sides are stepping closer to the Zero Line and we might see a switch in the next few weeks and see the Pound get stronger. the Cable is currently under the commercials control as theyre the majority buyers and driving prices lower, but again we do see both sides taking profit (non-commercials) or delievering on contracts (commercials).
So, with all this being said will all this relief going on we might see the pound rise this week again as correction as both sides figure out if theyre going switch sides or remain the same and drive prices lower.
the COT Net Data is as follows:
Commercials- current== 29, 064 // previous== 34, 112
Non-Coms- Current== (15, 998) // Previous== (24, 048)
AXY (Aussie Dollar) Okay, So very interesting stuff on the AXY and their COT report. Both sides have take major steps back and the pair might not be safe to trade this comming week. Earlier this month the RBA decided to keep the interest rate at .25% and not raising the intrest rates any biasis points. so, as to why both sides have closed positions is unsual. the open interest dropped a lot aswell which tells us that both sides either delievered on contracts or took profit. today is known for monday manipulation, so like i said earlier trading the Aussie might not be a good move, as any big player entering their position might cause big waves in the market and casue big swings. what we do see is that Price got rejected off the major swing point and looks as if it might try to retest it. the Aussie should be a slow pair this week and if any moves take place it might be the bigger players placing orders. As far as me i will not be looking at the Aussie Dollar for anysetups this week. The 5 year bond rate for the Aussie is also not doing too much either to attract investors as its trapped in a support zone waiting to complete a harmonic pattern.
Net Data-
Commercials- Current == 7192 // previous== 43,641
Non-Coms - Current == (6,532) // previous == (36,575)
Cocoa on all-important round level - retesting just nowI opened a position on Cocoa. 5year and 15year stacked seasonality favour long right now. Not significantly, but they do. This being said, it is an excellent outlook from a technical perspective. The price slows down as it approaches supsistence tested throughout the years from both sides. It has even worked recently. That time, it was resistance, now I hope it will act as support.
►It slows down as it approaches an important level
The important level is strong. Not only that it was tested multiple times but it is also a round number which are more often than not the ones that host the most fights between bulls and bears.
►The level is tested multiple times and is also a round number of 2400
And then, there is already once broken anchored VWAP from above. The one from bottom worked just weeks ago.
►Stacked seasonality 5y and 15y support long to a certain degree
►VWAP from the top is losing respect
◄The only contrarian point is 200 simple average which holds strong. But the price is approaching and bounces are getting smaller. Accumulation below this level usually signifies imminent breakout.
GBP/ AUD On the Pound Aussie we have a 222 pattern, and right now im waiting for the AMP RSI and HSI to trigger a signal which might Happen here in 7 minutes.
Now, on to the fundamentals...
the 5 year Pound Bond Yields looks like its wanting to form a double bottom which could attract more investors into the pound if it does actually bring value to the pound. I chose the 5 year bonds as short term investors might look to get in and out and this pattern is on the 1H timeframe. The 5 year Aussie Bonds Yields are in the process of trying to make a Bat Pattern and still has a way to go. and when this happens i can see investors flooding into the Aussie.
Now the COT data is interesting both currencies are being driven by the Commercials and both pairs are stepping close to the Zero Line. However, the Pound did have more Favor of selling pressure being relieved. With nearly 18,000 orders of relief. we had 10,000 orders of shorts get taken off the table by the Non-Coms Short for profit taking and we also had 8,000 orders of commercials delievering on their contracts. Now, this pattern might not work out, but the educated guess here out weighs just having technical analysis only. im not looking to take this trade to the moon, but i am looking to capture some pips on the correction before the pound makes another run down.
Natural Gas low on 16/6/2020 - Monthly COT categories history NG at a minimum here. Sharp retreat of MM shorts. Bottom?
You can pick my 5 views here:
mostly commodities (metals/energy)
USDJPY AnalysisIn this analysis, the pair had rejected a weekly support and started the move to the upside. With help of the COT data we can confirm this is the start to the pair moving to the upside.
~Leave any feedback or ideas you have about this analysis
SXY (Swiss Franc) Swissie So, the Swiss Franc is generally used as a reserve currency. Something different from The Reserve Currency, but similiar. During times of high volatility investors look to throw their money in safe haven currencies like the Swiss to protect from the wild whipsaws of the market.
So, here on the swiss there are no Harmonic Patterns to speak of so the COT data will have to work.
So, what we have is the Swissie is the Non-Coms took a major step foraward toward the Zero Line.
The commercials have further increased their longs to 16,366 which is a 1,934 increase from 14,432 and the Non-Coms are really increasing their shorts by double. We went from 4,375 to 8,697 orders short which is an increase of 4,322.
Now on to the Net data:
the Commercials:
current- (4,280) // Previous- (7,754)
Non-Coms
Current- 1,766 // Previous- 8,989
So as you can see we have taken major steps to the zero line especially in regards to the Non-Coms which i think the Swiss' bull run is coming to an end, and it might be wise to plan on shorting the Swiss here pretty soon.
JXY (Yen Index) On the Yen Index we are seeing some play off the 50%. there are no Harmonic Patterns currently on the Index but off the Fibo. so for the monday trap move we can have a move up to the 50 and then reverse. The Commercials have increased their longs by 10,000 orders. Now, an interesting thing on the Non-Coms side of things is that the Shorts marginally increased thier side while the Longs probably took profit or recorded their loses. they decreased their position (13,096) which leaves room for downward momentum with ease. So again there is not much room for PA to touch the 50% retrace then I do see price moving down quite rapidly!
on to the Net Data
Commercials-
Current = (13,302) // previous (28,488)
Non-Coms-
Current- 17,462 // previous- 32,579
from the net positions it looks like the sides are stepping closer to the Zero Line
EXY (Euro Index) The Euro backs the Dollar Index (DXY) by something of 50 something percent on the chart we see a gartley pattern that has completed and on the way down. Now Scott Carney, whom i think is next chartist genius next to Gann, Elliot, Dow, and Gartley. He was able to take all their readings and somehow make one of the most traded or talked about trading systems in the world. so much so tradingview teamed up with him yeas ago to help develop the harmonics drawings tool i use today, and the craziest thing about it is he came out with system in his early 30's. and what makes this even better is he is still alive running harmonic trader.com.
enough about Scott Carney i think that the pattern is completing a type 1 setup. So what im thinkning is Monday we will move to the 382 tuesday indecesion candle rest of the week retrace to the PRZ and the week after we might see a bigger move down.
the fundamental data
the COT
The Commercial Shorts are drvining the prices of the euro HIGH we a whopping 20,000 orders short!!! the longs to stop price was only a 1/5 of what the shorts did. the Non-Coms are increasing their longs by 10,000 orders driving prices way higher insync with the commercials.
so here is the net data
Commercials-
Current= (133,718) // Previous= (117,198)
Non-Commercials-
Current= 95, 649 // Previous= 81,240
Needless to say any buys on the Euro is a good decesion, prices are still going higer and higher. any dips in price are just that a Dip. might be an oppritunity to hop on a speeding train. i would not hold on to this pattern longer than the 382 retracement of the pattern
