COT
AUD/JPYTimeframe: 4 hr
Trend: Sideways/upwards
I posted a trade idea on AUD/JPY on June 26 (title is wrong - ) for longs at 75.50 area after price broke out of the downtrend. Price failed to continue the uptrend and has been consolidating since then and has continued to be rejected at the 76 area.
I have been keeping my eye on the COT (commitment of traders) report, institutions are removing some shorts for longs and I am expecting bullish momentum to start up in the coming weeks for a up wave. Once this area is broken look for longs to 77.35 to 77.50 level.
AUD COT report: www.tradingster.com
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AUD - Huge upside potential*Disclaimer - This analysis alone DOES NOT warrant a buy or sell trade immediately. Before you enter any trade in the financial market, it is very important that you have a proper trading plan and risk management approach.
The sharing of this idea is neither necessarily indicative of nor a guarantee of future performance or success.
GBPAUD 1:10 Risk Reward (High Risk, but Lucrative Potential)GBP False Long?
- Brexit optimism in the public eye. Pound surges suspiciously in such uncertain times.
- False breakout potentially?
- LogicStrategy Quant score: -14
- COTA reading: 54% of funds are net short on GBP
AUD Fundamentals
- The People's bank of China has reported its second month of gold buying. Showing a potential appreciation on AUD
- Quant score: 20
- COTA reading: 60% of funds are net short on AUD
The COT sentiment readings old no bias on this trade, making it even more uncertain in the longer run.
Understanding COTA post on understanding COT report.
Will be posting more on the comment section below.
BCOM headed lower as global metals,Natgas and oil falterOur CFTC prop research points out the Bloomberg commodity index is headed lower. This has a wide ranging effect on global indices and sectors that are heavy weighted trading or using Metals, Natgas and Oil.
Wheat bull run $ZWI believe Russian aggressive wheat export campaigning has left their supply side depleted again. With rising wheat tenders across the globe and global cooling on top of an end of bullish accumulation phase as per COT analysis the path for higher wheat prices is wide open. Technically the 4h chart fits snugly in a diamond pattern, which upon breach almost always accelerates price action.
EURJPY - Biggest Yen short covering underwayCFTC data shows YEN bears were at extremes a few weeks back. They have started to unwind their positions and thus accelerating Yen's upside.
Nikkei225 which is in close inverse-correlation with YEN is tracking lower too.
We expect market participants to continue unwinding YEN shorts from over -$12bn short to -$7.5bn, which would transcend into a 2-3 handle move in EURJPY.
Euro bears are currently out in full force and have no reason of squaring positions.
EURUSD finding supportThis weekly chart of the EURUSD may be a bit cluttered but the EURUSD is showing some mixed signals and requires a bit more detail to try to understand the potential trend. Using the Larry Williams COT Index we see that USD Commercial Interest is at extreme lows, indicating a potential for selling of the USD to step in. However, these extreme levels could be held for some time. The EUR on the other hand has come off extreme lows but is still working its way to wards the buy zone and more selling can be expected. The sum of the Open Interest for the EUR and USD has shown low interest during the decline. Now we see increased volume on the up waves showing signs of strength coming in. The net commercial COT (EUR-USD) (green line with scale on left axis) has shown a similar decline and is still showing a downward trend. The OBV (red overlay on chart with no scale) for the broker volume has shown effort with the up volume without response (price still slowly trending down) or divergence between price and the OBV indicating continued weakness. The volume profile indicates a significant volume cluster between 1.16 and 1.18 providing resistance and sellers are still in the market. On the down site there is a significant point of control at 1.12 which is to the top of the Wyckoff accumulation range established between March 2015 and December 2016. From this my view is that the current down trend is a backup to the creek (Trading Range) and could find support at 1.12 before going into markup in Phase E. So in the short term I am expecting a final drive to the support level at 1.12 in the next month or two. After that the Markup could potentially start and break the long-term downward stride of the EURUSD.
2018/09/11 Gold COT : Totals by category (Lon+Sho+Spr) vs MM2018/09/11 It seems that MM are getting into shorts heavily, while still at their maximum in terms of total contracts.
So they are not exactly exiting gold for better opportunities. But they are a fast reacting category, so I see this as an opportunistic position of them, that might change rapidly. To watch
NZD/USD time to sellhello guys here's a new idea on the NZD/USD exchange rate. First, we're approaching the 200dma which will act as a resistance level, secondly, we are in a spot where support turns into resistance giving us the possibility to short the NZ$. The first target is at 0.66385 then we can go for a retest of the 0.65722 level. Lastly, the COT suggests a bearish approach.
best regards,
docCDS
2018/08/23 E-MINI &P500 Cftc OI & Asset Managers LO/SHE-MINI &P500, Cftc Open Interest & Asset Managers LO/SH (%)
GBPUSD/ SellBased on the volume analysis and the last COT report, we can conclude that there is a high probability of sale.
Last Commitment of Traders report:
GBPUSD: - 4.214 Long and +2.549 Short
Platinum with a lot potential to the upsideAnyone familiar with the Commitment of Traders Report knows that the commercials have reached an extreme range that leaves much room for rising prices. Added to this is that the chart image with the recently formed double bottom looks bullish.
This is what a trade might look like:
- Entry immediately
- Stop Loss below the last local low
- Take profit with multiple exits (scaling out) first profit taking at $875
CADJPY/ Short-term chance for shortUsing the FXCM volume (as well as with OANDA), you can see that the strength of increases is getting weaker, while sales are getting stronger. You can also refer to the COT report, according to the latest JPY should be stronger than CAD.
Warning
This is a short-term forecast.
The idea ceases to be valid after breaking the resistance on a large volume.
Myfxbook
www.myfxbook.com
GBPUSD sell opportunity,4h charthello guys, new trade here, the idea is to short pound due to a series of fact: we're testing the 200 ma, and recently has been a clear resistance level, then CFTC COT is bearish on the pound with short sellers increasing their position for the 5th straight week, even the inverted hammer suggest reversal price action coming.
EURNZD - Two reasons to sellLeveraging funds last week made large sales of contracts for Euro (Contracts for Euro against USD). However, also in the same week, these funds reduced the number of contracts for NZD sales, which in combination with the analysis of the chart may mean a drop in the price on EURNZD
Long-term Platinum AnalysisThe chart shows that the price of platinum is at a very low level, according to the COT report analysis, it shows that compared to the previous publication, the number of open sales positions increased, but it is much smaller activity of sellers than in previous reports. This may mean that the downward trend is coming to an end. An additional factor to buy can be the fact that the price is at an important level of support. This in combination with COT reports is a good basis to buy.
Warning
This is a long-term forecast, it does not mean that the increase will take place immediately.
In the case of long-term investment, I encourage you to use ETFs, for example PPLT.US (ETFS Physical Platinum Shares)
$CADJPY short- Trading the Opec Campaign into 22nd JuneLast week options volume pointed at increased downside protection. Which translated into a yen rally or cadjpy drop.
This theme is still in play on top of that. opec is relaxing supply cuts and thus driving oil lower over the coming month, which will drag CAD$ with it.
I line with that we had a weekly bearish engulfing bar pointing at 82-80 area.
For more free educational material and free Trade of the Week visit SpeculatorsTrading
AUD/USD a good opportunity for a LONGMy Idea is to buy the break of the 0,7575 level with a target at 0,7680/0,77 . I expect a weak US Dollar this week, a higher Iron Ore price will help the AUD to push higher (Iron ore continues to climb higher).
Commitments of Traders Report Sentiment. Neutral
Retail Traders Sentiment: Bearish
Have you some questions, comment below :)
Happy Trading!
most recent update for gj long idea.hello all here we see gj is starting a clear long pattern. to hit the upside 618 fib to give a two time hit of the top and bottom symmetrical triangle or pennant if you like that. i have used mfi, support and resistance, a special cot indicator, triangle pattern, and double bottom for my theory. Therefore as the triangle is tightening we may only see a move to the 6.18 so we need to be careful on this trade. if it breaks out it will only be in my opinion to form a lower high and to add resistance areas. we will need to see a clean break for a long term long or short before we get crazy.
HAPPY TRADING.
EUR/USD - Follow the Hedge Funds and Banks - Long&ShortI expect a correction to this levels 1,2200/55, then I want to sell between 1,2200/55. I work with the Commitments of Traders Report (COT), Speculative Sentiment Index and fundamental data.
