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COT

🔆GOLD🔆 FOMO = LiquidityCommercials have been heavily selling gold since mid June 2019. Per the 2/24 COT Net Positions for commercials they have decreased their long positions and increased their short positions. While the COT Net Positions for institutions have increased both their long and short positions. (There are two types of institutional traders which are long-term and short-term trend traders). Lastly, per the COT we can see the Open Interest has increased on Gold. Volatility is also low showing conference in the market, which is a bullish sentiment. (see chart for technical analysis)
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TheEconomyCreator
XAUUSD BIG SHORT!XAUUSD Weekly timeframe On the weekly timeframe we can see a big push to the upside without any retracement (this is from the 18 Nov 19 to 3 Feb 2020 with no push down). Another factor that could lead to a push to the downside is the level that gold is on right now. Before in Sep 26 2011, Dec 12 2011, May, Jun, Jul, and Aug this level was well-respected support. Right now, it turned resistance and therefor this could lead to a pushdown. We can also spot divergence and from experience, I know that divergence works a lot better on the weekly, daily and 240 min timeframes. But the divergence on the weekly can also be a huge factor and a reason to short Daily On the daily we could except a push to the blue area which is a structure level the pair has touched and then moved down. We can also spot divergence in this timeframe. 4 hour - Waiting for entry’s I will probably wait for the right entry trigger. Now the market knows that everybody is ready for a short and therefor wait before shorting. We will probably see a manipulation from the market. Now if we don’t see that we can short is safely with a proper reward to risk ratio. But still, wait and look for possible entries instead of shorting it blindly. COT reports If we look at the COT report from 4 Feb 2020 we can clearly see that the hedge funds closed 20492 longs and opened 9794 shorts while the market was moving to the upside. Now again this is another sign + the resistance and divergence (weekly and daily timeframe). So wait for a possible entry in the 4-hour timeframe DISCLAIMER TRADING ON YOUR OWN RISK I AM NOT GIVING FINANCIAL ADVICE!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mete_forex
POSSIBLE REVERSAL ON SILVER Non-Commercials and Non-reportables are already approaching extreme levels in Net-Long positioning as @ Jan 21, 2020. Non-Commercials = 68K, Non-Reportables=25k. Net positions at 97% and 87% respectively. We may expect to see exhaustion as price already at a previous month's high. We may see price attempt to retest the supply zone before a reversal occurs. We will wait and watch out for price action on Tuesday to confirm the sell. This will coincide with the release of the CFTC report before it gets to the public
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by dynamiquebd
5
EURCAD: Pontential +100 pip trade Confluence We can clearly see a well-tested resistance area on the 4-hour chart a potential spot to take a short position. I am still waiting for confirmation in this area and therefore I will not trade this area blindly. Another confirmation is the fact that the RSI is overbought + it is that in a key resistance area. The last factor is the potential head and shoulder pattern forming itself. COT - The hedge funds If we look at the COT reports for the Canadian dollar, we can clearly see an increase in net positions from -17.560 to 18.574. We can’t see the biggest move in net positions from a EUR perspective but a small decrease in net positions from -100.789 to 103.401. If we look at the overall short positions on the EUR is 159.127. Overall long positions on the CAD are 51.738 which is more compared to the short positions. So, a push to the downside on the EURCAD will not be a huge surprise if we get more confirmations around this area of resistance. CAD COT: tradingster.com EUR COT: tradingster.com
Short
by Mete_forex
2
[NG] Natural Gas ignition Erdgas ist auf dem niedrigsten Level der letzten Jahre. Nur in Dec2015 und Feb2016 konnte der Preis noch unterboten werden. Die Commercials haben sich ordentlich eingedeckt. Dennoch könnte das Open Interest noch ein Stück höher und der RSI tiefer sein. Auch die Saisonalität spricht dafür, dass es noch einmal einen Dip nach unten geben könnte. Daher würde ich nicht mit gezogenen Waffen in den Trade laufen. --------------------- Natural gas is at its lowest level in recent years. Only Dec2015 and Feb2016 could still undercut the price. The commercials have stocked up nicely. Nevertheless, open interest could still be a bit higher and the RSI lower. The seasonality also suggests that there could be another dip down. So I would not go into the trade guns blazing. --------------------- Disclaimer The analysis does not constitute investment advice or other recommendations, but merely reflects the opinion of the publisher
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by Cashcrow
GASOLINE RBOB - Possible topI already told, here in this blog, dozens of times how powerful this signal is. You can check here how and when it triggers. Checking the chart for gasoline rbob, you will see how effective this was last time it gets activated. This is the second week in a row we have this signal poping in the cot tool, and from the last signal to now the instrument already moved 10 USD down. More to come! You will see in the second chart that this is the biggest long position held by the big speculators. So we have a clear exhaustion of buying power(check explanation), a major drop is expected! In the third image, you will see big speculators positioning organized from biggest to lowest. Check the post here leohermoso.com
NYMEX:RB1!Short
by leoohermoso
Is COT trading in a giant Bull Flag?Maybe a descending triangle as well, but seeing the recent bullish upward since Goldman Sachs recommended a buy rating from neutral. It actually appears as though COT has formed a Triple Bottom, which also appears slightly as a Ascending Triangle. The triple bottom is similar to the double bottom chart pattern and may also look like ascending or descending triangles. When STZ entered the Cannabis space they used Goldman Sachs to broker the deal. Goldman Sachs went bullish on Cott a in July, and why? Well, we know Goldman Sachs is supportive of cannabis via the previous brokered deal with STZ & Canopy. They'd be privy to any Safe Banking & States Act regulations, so that may simply be the answer, front running Cott's entry into the cannabis space? Cott has sold off several assets over the past couple years & have some cash to spend, and seeing so many previous Cott employees in the Cannabis space leads me to believe they may make a surprise entrance into the sector..
CLong
by ScotianBot
CADJPY - DOWNTREND RESUMPTION This pattern is one of the most powerful and reliable when it comes to COT Data. We calculate the six weeks rate of change of COT Index, we give this the name of Movement Index, and the signal is triggered when we have +-40 points! RULES: During a correction from an UPTREND, +40 points in the Movement Index often marks the end of a corrective pullback and the resumption of the major uptrend. During a correction from a DOWNTREND, -40 points in the Movement Index often marks the end of a corrective pullback and the resumption of the major downtrend. The FAILURE of the signal often marks a major trend change So the most important here is not the pattern itself, but that we are at an inflection point, this means that we have a big trend to ride and if we are wrong about the direction we will know very soon and also that our stop-loss is cheap. One last thing to add before charts is the post from last week where we discussed the bottom formation for USDCAD, this aligns with a short in CADJPY. CHARTS: Let’s see what happened in the past when this signal was triggered. These are the dates when it triggered: 15/01/2017 – Sell Signal 23/04/2017 – Buy Signal 16/07/2017 – Sell Signal 25/03/2018 – Buy Signal 06/01/2019 – Buy Signal To check the charts and the rest of this idea go to: leohermoso.com
Short
by leoohermoso
USDMXN - POSSIBLE BOTTOM PATTERNUSDMXN – BULLISH BIAS Our Mexican boy has also triggered a signal that has high accuracy. This is the “Possible bottom” signal and it’s calculated using the COT Index. RULES: Possible Top: Cot index is moving out of a commercial selling climax zone Possible Bottom: Cot index is moving out of a commercial buying climax zone Buying climax zone is when the COT Index is greater than 90 Selling climax zone is when the COT Index is less than 10 CHARTS Last time the signal was triggered: To see the rest of this idea go to leohermoso.com
Long
by leoohermoso
AUD/JPYTimeframe: 4 hr Trend: Sideways/upwards I posted a trade idea on AUD/JPY on June 26 (title is wrong - ) for longs at 75.50 area after price broke out of the downtrend. Price failed to continue the uptrend and has been consolidating since then and has continued to be rejected at the 76 area. I have been keeping my eye on the COT (commitment of traders) report, institutions are removing some shorts for longs and I am expecting bullish momentum to start up in the coming weeks for a up wave. Once this area is broken look for longs to 77.35 to 77.50 level. AUD COT report: www.tradingster.com Follow my free telegram for my trading ideas and review of my past ideas: t.me/forex_ideas
Long
by MC_Mike_Trading