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COT

Trapped traders - how to use the commitments of traders report Before reading this I want people to understand that this kind of trade doesn't always work (NO TRADING SYSTEM DOES) so if this single trade doesn't work, don't lose confidence in the technique - it has served me extremely well and I have used it many times before. Both for USDJPY (2 ideas) and USDCAD (1 idea) - you can find these ideas on my page. Links to those ideas (UCAD was positioning hugely long) You can find the commitments of traders report on this page (www.cmegroup.com) every Friday. It reflects the current positions of forex futures traders in Chicago's Mercantile Exchange on the Tuesday of that week. You want to see the "leveraged" positions - these are CTAs and hedge funds - the people like you and me that are speculating on these prices with the objective of making returns; usually with leverage. This is last Friday's report for AUDUSD. prnt.sc Note how Long (blue) positions have been rising. On 18/7 the net position was 45k LONG, on 8/8 the net position is 75k LONG. So between these two dates, we know that 30,000 long positions were opened. The price on 18/7 was 0.7916 and on 8/8 it was 0.7911. Those positions were therefore opened above 0.7900. The current price is 0.7820 and that means that all of those positions are experiencing a draw down of AT LEAST 80 pips (>1%). They are trapped traders. If price continues to move down, at some point those people are going to get out of those longs because the draw down will be too much for them to take. Getting out of a long = going short => price moving down = move people have to exit their longs = going short => price moving down etc. So just go short and you can benefit from this.
Education
by TraderVoe
1
Analysis of production, consumption and reserves of oil and oil On April 11, a fresh STEO report comes out, so you should wait for the updated forecast for the oil market from an official source. Conclusions on this report will be published in the blog www.cofutrading.com. But at the moment the situation is as follows: OPEC reduces production, and the US increases it. But along with the growth in production, which is accompanied by an increase in the number of drilling rigs in the US, oil consumption is also increasing. Exports are also high. Despite of inreasing us oil stocks (which is quite normal for a given time of the year), the growth rate of reserves is low, it is lower than last year and below the average for 5 years of value. That in general is bullish (at least for me). Demand for gasoline is high, demand for distillate is also high, so refineries will continue to "consume" a sufficient amount of oil, absorbing the growth of supply. Judging by CFTC COT reports, as of March 28, funds reduced their extremely bullish position. I do not attach high importance to these reports, I can only say that the long lines have been dropped, so the way for entering new long positions is open. I continue to adhere to the neutral-bullish direction in the US oil market, but before the opening of new positions I will wait for a new STEO report from the EIA. See EIA report charts at my facebook page :
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by zooeysparks
Analysis of production, consumption and reserves of oil and oil On April 11, a fresh STEO report comes out, so you should wait for the updated forecast for the oil market from an official source. Conclusions on this report will be published in the blog www.cofutrading.com. But at the moment the situation is as follows: OPEC reduces production, and the US increases it. But along with the growth in production, which is accompanied by an increase in the number of drilling rigs in the US, oil consumption is also increasing. Exports are also high. Despite of inreasing us oil stocks (which is quite normal for a given time of the year), the growth rate of reserves is low, it is lower than last year and below the average for 5 years of value. That in general is bullish (at least for me). Demand for gasoline is high, demand for distillate is also high, so refineries will continue to "consume" a sufficient amount of oil, absorbing the growth of supply. Judging by CFTC COT reports, as of March 28, funds reduced their extremely bullish position. I do not attach high importance to these reports, I can only say that the long lines have been dropped, so the way for entering new long positions is open. I continue to adhere to the neutral-bullish direction in the US oil market, but before the opening of new positions I will wait for a new STEO report from the EIA.
TVC:USOILLong
by zooeysparks
NZD/JPY, DAY CHART, SHORT (18-FEB-2017)From the Price Action, there are more selling pressure than buying pressure in this consolidation pattern. From COT Report, For JPY, there are more non-commercial positions added to long side. From both Price Action and COT Report, there is confluence that NZD/JPY might go down further. Here are 2 trading plans for you: 1. When the price break the support level, short 2. If the price pull back to previous resistance level, wait for bearish signal to short
Short
by YongLiang
EUR/CHF, DAY CHART, SHORT (18-FEB-2017)200-EMA is pointing downward and prices are below 200-EMA, it mean the long term trend is on the bearish side. 20 & 50-EMA also trending downward. Now there is descending triangle consolidation pattern, trying to push the price down the "Buyer's Stop Loss Position". Once this level was broken, expected the price will fall lower. From price action, in the consolidation pattern, the selling pressure is greater than buying pressure. From COT report, for CHF, more non-commercial positions added to the long side for EUR, more non-commerical positions added to the short side. Trend Following + Price Action + COT report are confluence to short EUR/CHF pair. Here are 2 trading pairs for you: 1. To short when price break the "Buyer's stop loss position" 2. If price pull back to previous resistance level, wait for bearish signal to short
Short
by YongLiang
The time for selling oil is upon UsThe recent test of the 51 area signaled the biggest net short position by producers in a very long time. The sold in anticipation of higher prices but now the market topped and needs to correct before we see a big push to the $60 that Saudi Arabia wish to reach soon. I will be placing a limit at the 48 area and sell to $40 - $35 range, That is the area where we can start piling up on long term buys and re-enter with each daily retracement. The demand for oil keeps rising we are in a 40 year bull market , we must not worry about excessive manipulation and noise from the talking heads on TV and focus on a long term perspective. The true direction is a medium term bear move. I will also place a sell stop below the recent swing low just in case OPEC meeting sends us straight down.
TVC:USOILShort
by FXBanker