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COT Analysis - CurrenciesThis week is a quiet week for COT setup markets. In this video I overview how the currency setups which I have identified over the last few weeks (Long USD, Short JPY, AUD, CAD, EUR) have played out and are well underway. As of right now, the only currency that is setup for a trade is the Mexican Peso. This video reviews the combination of factors which have made this market setup for longs. To be clear, this does not mean long now. But this means that, if we get an entry trigger on the daily, we are authorized to long this market. Have a great weekend.
CME:6MZ2024
by Tradius_Trades
Cycle Analysis - Dollar IndexI am SETUP to hunt long TRIGGERS in the DX this week based on the COT strategy. So I thought I'd look, do cycles support the COT strategy looking for Longs? It turns out, they do. Decennial & Annual Predictable Zones (APZ's) supportive of up move to Early/Mid October Intermarket analysis finds a striking 60.9% correlation to DX's current price action to that of the price action found in 1991. Based on the intermarket analysis, we expect a major cyclical low sometime around now. The long term blend of the 51.5 month & 581 day cycles show a major cyclical low should be around the corner for DX. The short term blend of the 20.6, 29.9 & 115.6 day cycle is supportive of longs until a short term cyclical high early-mid October.
ICEUS:DXZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
COT Strategy - SHORT JAPANESE YENDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Japanese Yen (6J) My COT strategy has me on alert for new short trades in 6J if we get additional bearish entry triggers (this week a divergence entry triggered short). COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Valuation: Overvalued vs Gold & Treasuries Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish. OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish. True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October. COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: %R Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
CME:6JZ2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
1
COT Strategy - Gold ShortDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Gold (GC) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in GC if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Valuation: Overvalued vs Treasuries Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Only thing that would be better is SS's making an extreme in long positioning, but no luck with that yet (but something I'm watching). OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move since June. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish. In the case of Gold, it is being caused by LS & SS's, which is bearish. Spread: Bearishly diverging. ADX: Diverging, implying the trend lacks integrity. Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dis , %R, Stochastic & Momentum (not yet triggered) Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
COMEX:GCZ2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
COT Strategy - Crude Oil LongsDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy Crude Oil (CL) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL again this week. To clarify, this was setup last week also, and triggered me long this week via a CCI divergence long trigger. Based on this weeks COT strategy analysis, I think this is a nice market for further upside and will look to enter again via 18MA & 10H8C MAC entry methods. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal. Net Positioning: Max long of last 3 years - bullish. Small Spec Index: Buy Signal. Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries. Front Month Premium Market. True Seasonal up to Mid October. Supplementary Indicators: Stochastic. Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a Daily long trigger. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:CLZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Smart Money Positioned to SHORT Gold - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Gold (GC) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in GC if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Valuation: Overvalued vs Treasuries Extreme Positioning: Commercials around max short of last 2 years = bearish. True Seasonal: Seasonal down to October. Supplementary Indicators: %R & Momentum (not yet confirmed) Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
COMEX:GCZ2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
Smart Money Positioned to SHORT CAD - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Canadian Dollar (6C) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6C if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal OI Analysis: Upmove in price has seen Commercials aggressively move to the short side - bearish. Valuation: Overvalued vs Treasuries True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October. COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: %R Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
CME:6CU2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
3
Smart Money Positioned to SHORT JPY - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Japanese Yen (6J) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6B if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Valuation: Overvalued vs Gold & Treasuries Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish. OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish. True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October. COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: %R & Momentum (not confirmed) Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
CME:6JU2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
9
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Platinum - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy LONG Platinum (PL) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in PL if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries Bullish Spread Divergence Supplementary Indicators: Stochastic & %R Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:PLV2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Cotton - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy LONG Cotton (CT) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CT if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold Extreme Positioning: Commercials around max long of last 3 years - bullish. Small specs around max short of last 3 years - bullish. OI Analysis: "Bubble Up" of positioning happening between commercials and large specs = bullish. COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Supplementary Indicators: UO & Momentum (not yet confirmed) Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
ICEUS:CTZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
3
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Soybeans - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy LONG Soybeans (ZS) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in ZS if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. I note that I am already long as this market has been giving a buy signal for a few weeks. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal Extreme Positioning: Commercials hovering around max long of last 3 years - bullish. OI Analysis: "Bubble Up" in net positioning between commercials and large specs - bullish. Multi week down move has seen OI increase. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the increase in OI". When the OI increase is caused by Commercials adding to longs, it is bullish. True Seasonal: Major seasonal low end of September and up to February. COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, %R, UO, Stochastic & Confirmed Momentum Shift. Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
CBOT:ZSX2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Copper - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy LONG Copper (HG) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in HG if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Sentiment: Advisors very bearish is actually...bullish. OI Analysis: Multi week down move has seen OI decrease drastically while Commercials have added to longs = bullish. Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries Bullish Spread Divergence Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist & %R Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
COMEX:HGZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Smart Money Positioned to LONG RBOB - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy Long (RBOB) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in RBif we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal Extreme Positioning: Commercials max long of last 3 years - bullish. Small specs max short of last 3 years - bullish. OI Analysis: Multi week down move has seen OI increase. When OI increases, we need to ask "who is causing the OI increase?". In this case, OI is increasing as Commercials add to long positioning, which is bullish. ADX: Paunch forming (but not confirmed until ADX rollover). This is a significant "end of trend" indication. Front Month Premium - bullish. COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:RBV2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Crude Oil - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy LONG Crude Oil (CL) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal OI Analysis: Generally last few weeks OI has drifted lower while CM's adding to longs - bullish. CM's approaching extreme long positioning, but not quite there yet. True Seasonal: True seasonal to go up until mid October - bullish. COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Front Month Premium - Bullish Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:CLZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Smart Money is Positioned to LONG Mexican Peso - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy LONG Mexican Peso (6M) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in 6M if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal Extreme Positioning: Commercials most long they have been since March 2023 - bullish. Small Specs most short they have been since June 2020 = bearish. OI Analysis: Very low OI. Generally, bottoms are associated with low OI (public and large specs are not interested in this market, while commercials heavily adding to longs is bullish) Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries = bullish. COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist , POIV, %R, Stochastic & Momentum (not yet confirmed) Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
CME:6MU2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Watch out as EURGBP net short positioning is reversing quicklyLeveraged money net positioning is reversing from extreme short levels in EURGBP futures. We do acknowledge the UK's recent positive political momentum amid political turbulence in the EU, however we believe the effect is in the price. On top of that, our fundamental macro model is slightly bullish EURGBP, certainly not indicating a further drop from these levels. This might indicate a rally in EURGBP towards 0.86 after a recent 2 standard deviation selloff.
Long
by bearwhispering