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COT

DOLLAR RETRACE TO 103+ ON FOMC & NFP VOLATILITY ?COT: Dollar has weakened significantly since mid NOV-22 Driven by institutional selling of long contracts since begin Q4-22 Assisted by accumulation of short contracts sinds JAN-23 Outlook for Q1-23 remains sideways to down Next downside level is 99.60 FOMC & NFP: Before another drop below 100 big figure a retrace is likely 103+ will likely be mitigated in FEB 103 = mitigation level = GAP resistance = sell VWAP Begin FEB is pivotal week(s) with FOMC & NFP FOMC and/or NFP volatility will likely facilitate the retrace OUTLOOK: Will be monitoring price behaviour between 103.00 - 103.25 Looking for change of behaviour on the lower timeframe (wicks into mitigation-level) Anticipating a swing lower from 103+ to 100- after mitigation This will offer buy setups in the MAJORS, with a preference for commodity CCY's
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by xtrader1
1
GOLD COT PERSPECTIVE- Gold strength in synch with Dollar-weakness - 2022 distribution-pattern seems completed - M (double top) follwed by 3 impulses lower done - Q4-22 started with W-pattern follwed by first impulse up - Rotation higher is in line with seasonal expectations (strength in NOV/DEC/JAN/FEB) - COT: Institutions are accumulating longs while distributiing shorts, this is double bullish - COT: Buy-side liquidity resting above 1880 - Weekly (fresh) supply-zone at 1943, direct below it is a Daily imbalance
COMEX:GC1!Long
by xtrader1
2
CADJPY COT STUDY: MORE DOWNSIDE UNTIL 90 ?COT: - Non-Commercial Positions as of 28-1-23 - JPY inverted (down = less shorts) COT JPY (YELLOW): - Moving less short since mid OCT-22 - JPY COT dictates CADJPY price since mid OCT COT CAD (PURPLE): - CAD moving more short since AUG-22 - CAD sideways since begin JAN-23 - Early indication that CAD is recovering from weakness across the board? TARGETS: - Looking for some ranging up (100 ?) - Followed by impulse lower to 90 - Quarterly Pivot to Quarterly S1 would be nice
Short
by xtrader1
USDJPY COT-STUDY Q1-23: BEARISH CONTINUATION?Monetary Policy: - BOJ is making a significant change - Longterm YieldCurveControl target of 0,25% is relaxed to 0.50% - Higher targets are to be considered - This would mean more YEN-strength - FED still hiking rates, but expected target-rate for 2023 is moderate: 4,75% - 5.00% COT: - Institutions started distributing USD-Longs since Q3-22 - Insititutions started distributing JPY-Shorts since Q4-22 - Both moves reinforce eachother in pushing down USDJPY - Distribution-phase seems to continue in Q1-23 Seasonality: - JAN is generally weak for USDJPY, so in line with expectations - FEB & MAR are not weak for USDJPY (but Monetary Policy & COT outweigh Seasonality) Pivot Points: - Q4 was (fast) run from Quarterly R1 to Quarterly S1 - Looks like mid-DEC was start of frontrun Q1-23 - Projected Quarterly Pivot for Q1-23 was sold end DEC-22 - Quarterly Pivot predicts Quarterly S2 with QS1 as (conservative) first target = 125
Short
by xtrader1
1
DOLLAR COT STUDY - COT DIV BEFORE DIST- SEP FOMC meetings pivotal post-Covid ACCUMULATION: - From FOMC SEP 2020 until FOMC SEP 2021 price was accumulating in a range - From FOMC SEP 2021 until FOMC SEP 2022 price was trending up MARK UP: - Trend progressed in 3 COT-stages: 1. Re-accumulation (Large COT increase while price remains relatively depressed) 2. Mark Up (Limited COT increase while price rallies) 3. Climax Buy (COT Tops after limited increase while price rallies followed by big retrace) DISTRIBUTION: - First portion of distribution started after Climac Buy - Price makes Higher Highs followed by topping formation while COT makes Lower Highs - Re-distribution phase starts after FOMC SEP 2022 - Price is no longer supported by Instituions EXPECTATIONS: - Weekly (fresh) Demand-Zone at 99.50 - 99.50 is 50% of swing from 2021-Low to 2022 Climax Buy - From 99.50 wait for COT to indicate new phase
INDEX:DXYShort
by xtrader1
USDJPY COT STUDY - LONGS BEING DISTRIBUTED - 2020: 1 Year of accumulating SHORTS, LONGS used to depress price - Q2-21: Distributing SHORTS while Accumulating LONGS - Take profit on SHORTS, use profits to to accumumate LONGS - Take some profits on LONGS to consolidate price - 2021: Accumulating LONGS (3 impulses) - 2022: Q2+Q3 = Mark up price, Q4 = Distributing LONGS - COT indicates that more LONGS need to be distributed - Sell high: for max profits price needs supported for distribution at a relatively high price - Seasonally JAN'23 should be sideways to down - Sell-side liquidity (buyers) below 130 - 127.50 is Weekly demand-zone, more willing buyers expected at that level = support
Short
by xtrader1
WYCKOFF / COT PERSPECTIVE ON GBPUSD- Institutional actions preceed price in past 2 years - COT is inverted to better show correlation between shorts and price - 2021 was consolidation phase where institutions accumulated shorts - First 9 months of 2022 was mark down phase - Driving price to a level where shorts could be distributed with a healthy profit - Last quarter of 2022 was profit-taking phase where shorts were rapidly unwound - Short positions is back at levels of begin 2021 - Wait for institutions to kick off a new campaign - Seasonally begin of year is not trending for GBPUSD
by xtrader1
1
Silver - Losing Its Shine?Silver commands value both as a precious metal and an industrial metal. Silver is often considered as a poor man's gold. According to the Silver Institute, Silver is used in solar cells (also known as photovoltaic cells which convert sunlight into electricity), electrical switches, and chemical-producing catalysts. Its unique properties make it nearly impossible to substitute and its uses span a wide range of applications. Every computer, handphone, cars, and appliance contains silver. Near-term headwinds for photovoltaic manufacturing in China combined with a strong US Dollar are expected to weigh down on Silver prices in the near term. Our short-term outlook for silver is bearish. With a price rally over the past two weeks, we expect prices to retrace in the near term providing a compelling entry for a short position in Silver. SILVER’S VALUE DRIVERS Silver has been considered a precious metal for several centuries. However, in the modern economy, silver is valued as both a precious and an industrial metal. Silver’s industrial uses range from electronics, batteries, automobiles, dentistry, and photovoltaics among others. As such, nearly half of the annual worldwide demand for silver was from industrial uses over the past five years. In contrast, only 10%-15% of gold supply is used for industrial purposes. SILVER’S INDUSTRIAL DEMAND Photovoltaic demand particularly has been a major factor in recent years with the growing proliferation of solar power. Silver consumption in solar panel production grew 13% in 2021 and accounted for 22% of total industrial usage as per the Silver Institute. China is the global leader in solar-panel manufacturing accounting for 74% of the module capacity and 85% of the cell capacity in the world according to the IEA. With manufacturing in China remaining muted in the short term due to COVID surge and related lockdowns, photovoltaic production demand over the short term is unlikely to influence Silver prices. SILVER AS STORE OF VALUE Silver has underperformed relative to Gold and Platinum this year. Both Silver and Platinum have outperformed over the past month and 3-month periods. Precious metals investments face strong headwinds as investors find relative safety in elevated US Treasury Yields. Although expectations are for the Federal Reserve to ease its rate hiking cycle going forward, that policy pivot remains unlikely anytime soon. SILVER SUPPLY AND DEMAND BACKDROP Fuelled by Silver’s price rally in 2020, supply rebounded in 2021 increasing 5% YoY. However, silver supply plunged into a deficit in 2021. This deficit was expected to widen further this year according to the Silver Institute as demand rises (+5%/1030.3 million ounces) was expected to outpace supply (+3%/1,101.8 million ounces). However, macro backdrop of events this year, from rising inflation, COVID situation in China, to geopolitics, has adversely impacted the demand from the electronics industry leading to excess inventory. Additionally, reduced manufacturing production in China will also lead to lower demand for photovoltaic production. Falling demand, especially in the short term, will likely result in supply outpacing demand. SILVER TECHNICAL SIGNALS & A PEEK INTO SILVER COT REPORTS Silver prices rallied over the past two weeks breaching a resistance band ($20.5-$21.32) that has held since July. Following this rally, RSI moved into overbought territory at 72.18. Additionally, on the 200d and 10d moving average (MA) we see a golden crossover forming. However, if we take a longer short-term MA (20d) to look at the larger uptrend that began on 14th October, the Golden crossover is far from likely to occur. Moreover, the rally faced resistance at the 200d MA reaching a high of $22.38 which is 3.99% higher than the 200d MA on the day. The highest close was just 2.8% above the moving average on the day. Both these levels are within 2x standard deviation of the Implied Volatility of At the Money Options (31.01%) as seen on CME's QuikVol. Nevertheless, the current rally does deliver promise as it confidently breached R1 of the pivot point indicator. This level of $20.95 now indicates a support level for the rally. CME’s Commitment of Traders (COT) tools shows that despite the price increase over the past month, producers have increased the number of short positions from 20.7% to 24.3% on November 15th. Managed money shorts have decreased from 32.4% to 17.7% while managed money longs have increased marginally from 26.7% to 28.2%. SHORT SILVER FUTURES TRADE SETUP CME Micro Silver Futures provide exposure to 1,000 Troy Ounces of Silver with a maintenance margin of $1,700 as of November 22nd. This provides a cost-effective way to get exposure to movements in Silver’s price. Establishing a short position with an entry price at $21.18/oz with a potential target at $19.88/oz (1x standard deviation of IV of ATM option above the pivot point) by Dec 16th (two days after the next Fed meeting) could provide exposure to a short-term correction in the price of silver yielding 76.47% returns or $1,300. A stop loss at 1x standard deviation of IV of ATM option above 200d MA at $21.88 would protect against an unexpected rally resulting in loss of $700 or -41.18% providing a reward to risk ratio of 1.86. Alternatively, holding the position until the pivot point would lead to 98.82% returns or $1,680. As the correction is expected to be in the short-term, December futures could provide superior liquidity. CME’s full-size Silver futures provide exposure to 5,000 Troy Ounces of Silver with a maintenance margin of $8,500 and improved liquidity in case of larger positions. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of the future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by mintdotfinance
1
GBPUSD - bullish momentum Hello traders! We can finally see a shift in the momentum of GBPUSD, after a bearish year. The pair seems to create a nice impulse upwards on daily timeframe, and we can be looking for an entry after the price breaks the resistance on 4H. All the indicators that I use indicate a bullish move, the price is above EMAs, retesting them, the moving averages also indicate a buy, and the MACD line is above 0. Moreover, COT data shows an increase in the strength of GBP compared to USD. It looks like a potential good setup, but first let's wait in order to see if the price manages to break above the resistance! OANDA:GBPUSD
Long
by m_maia14
Wheat Futures Ready to Pop Again. Same Signal to Start 2020 BoomCOT Data is signaling that Wheat Futures ( CBOT:ZW1! ) are ready to pop after a few months of declines and chop As it currently stands, this is the shortest the Large Speculators have been on Wheat since 2020 where it bottomed at 589'4 to rally all the way as high as 1422'0. By no means do I expect a similar rally to ensure, but this does illustrate how oversold the large speculators are and what the consequences of that can be. I'm looking for a technical long reversal entry on the daily chart to enter the trade and then use sound risk management thereafter Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart, use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Rudeadam18
Euro ready to continue decline - according to COT Data COT Data is pointing to the Euro ( CME:6E1! ) to continue its fall after seen a brief rally For the last couple months, the large speculators have been accumulating so much Euro that is is becoming over-crowded (See the green line in the NET COT FO graph on the weekly chart). A small catalyst could send this currency back into a downward spiral, fueled by the speculators being overly long. I will be looking for my proprietary reversal signal to enter the trade and use sound risk management thereafter Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart , use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
CME:6E1!Short
by Rudeadam18
S&P HIGHER IN DEC WHILE USD WEAK + COT BULLISH- Seasonal: S&P is supposed to be strong in DEC - Seasonal: USD is supposed to be weak in DEC - Pattern: Q4 created a W + 1st push, 2nd push is to be expected after stophunt - Technical: Bullish break of Market Structure on the Daily in OCT - Efficiency: D1 overlapping Gaps + Imbalances offer support around 3900 and 4000 - S&D: Weekly Supply-zone at 4500 with Imbalances below it - COT: Asset Manangers accumulate longs and distribute shorts since OCT COT + SEASONALLITY VISUALISED: images2.imgbox.com
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by xtrader1
GBPCAD weekly breakdownHello hello! After a bearish year for GBPCAD , it finally shifts on a weekly perspective, breaking the Moving Averages & EMAs finally crossed. For the past 3 weeks we saw a strong impulse on this pair, now waiting for a slow correction that can be followed by another strong impulse upwards. Moreover, the Commitment Of Traders data shows confluence on this analysis, GBP becoming stronger while CAD weakening. We now have to wait in order to see a correction, and only after that we can be looking for an entrance!
Long
by m_maia14