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COT

A possible bull flag on EUR/AUD is formingEUR/AUD has caught my eye for a potential long. It posted a solid rally form the August low and entered a retracement phase, so at some point looking for it to turn higher. A potential bull flag is forming on the daily chart, and Friday’s spike lower shows a (failed) attempt to drive the market lower, where is found support at the July (close) high. Yesterday’s low found support at the July high and monthly pivot point, and prices are teasing trend resistance of the potential bull flag. Furthermore, a bullish divergence is also forming on the RSI (2) so perhaps we are approaching a bullish breakout. Also note that large speculators remain net-short AUD/USD futures yet are their most bullish on EUR/USD futures since June 2021. We could look at this as a proxy for large speculators being net-long the euro against the Australian dollar. Bulls could either wait for a break above 1.5352 with an initial target being the 1.5706 to monthly R1 zone. Alternatively, bulls could seek dips above the monthly pivot point in anticipation of a breakout (whilst this increases the potential reward to risk, it also brings the risk the breakout does not occur). A break above the R1 resistance zone brings the R2 resistance zone into focus. A break beneath Friday's low invalidates the bullish bias over the near-term and signals a deeper retracement from its recent highs.
Long
by CityIndex
$GBPUSD - Sell Side Liquidity at -1 Standard Dev. *SMT*\*SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and Balance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids.) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.* Asian Session Lesson - Doesn't always happen but I believe the way it is forming it will. During the Asian Session the high of that session did break a high from last asian session. If you box in the asian session and draw out the deviations, (1x, 1.5x, 2x, etc. you might find some confluences. Also take note of the opening price at midnight (1.14320). If you notice the rere are equal lows below the current price. Which is where the liquidity lies, where retail traders place their buy limits and sell stops. Usuaully when you see this after an asian session the price will rise during the London session to get you to believe that it's going to continue the trend. However, what smart Money usually does, is they will find a point that may bne higher than the high but usually at a bearish order block near the high or deviation. This is where the Judas swing comes into play. And this will have most retail traders buying into that high. Could drop a little at first ti get even with the current even lows or drop just a little below them. The rise up during London Session, above NY Opening price, That's when you expect price to hit the bearish order block somewhere and start to drop on the other side of the price of hte new york open. In my educated smart money guess, it would het just above the current high and then start plummeting as soon as London is about to slow down 4 am ish. 6 am you see it pixk back up and move up into a breaker or a bearish order block it formed , and fall harderpast the equal lows probably to the -1.5x deviation of the Asion Session, Aroun 1.13200 Here's my two guesses on one chart. Let's see if that's wut Smart Money Wants to do. If it even wants to do that at all. I could be wrong and it just go straight up through the liquidity above. But the equal lows have me against that. Price 1 Attacks Liquidity and 2 Moves towards imbalances I had to add another chart because I have people that follow me that say my numbers are too small so I made one that a=had big numbers for them and it was more focused on the area. I'll update as it goes on when I can. It already looks like price is swinging up though There's a smart Money Lesson for the day Good Luck and Happy Tradin g Bodies X Wix OANDA:GBPUSD
Short
by BodiesXWix
Short AUDCAD Hidden DivergenceThe AUDCAD has recently completed a triple top and has formed hidden divergence on the MACD. This is signaling a continuation of the downtrend. Also the COT Report has the Australian Dollar in a heavily short position and the Canadian Dollar positively long which setup up a nice short for us. Both of these currencies are commodity correlated. Gold is falling( Aussie correlated) and Oil is looking for a rebound but also falling( CAD corelated). And the Market cycle for this pair is bearish for Aug 2 to Sept 28. Entry 0.8955 | SL 0.9110 | TP1 0,8850 | TP2 0.8750
Short
by forexmilitia
Commitment of Traders & -SPXThis chart shows in the shaded area the time periods in which the Dealer/Intermediary group of the TFF (Traders in Financial Futures) report have been net long. What is significant is that most of the time this group remains net short and when it switches to net long it has been followed by long periods of upside in the SPX. The exception was in 2007 when prior to the financial crisis they went net long for a very short period of time which was followed by the market crash.
SP:SPXLong
by Point-Blank-Trading
LONG CRUDE - Trading with COT dataCOT Data is pointing to Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! or AMEX:USO ) being primed to pop after it's seasonal downturn This is a great example where money management is key as well as not blindly using the COT data as the sole reason for entry. Personally, I have a proprietary daily chart indicator I use to enter trades where COT data is giving signals. Crude Oil has been declining all the way down since June despite COT data that is telling us it is ready to go up (My proprietary indicator did not once provide a buy signal throughout that time period). I'm looking closely for a short-term signal to enter off of this week Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart , use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Rudeadam18
S&P Still Primed to Continue HigherCOT data is signaling a great buy opportunity in CME_MINI:ES1! despite all the talks of this "bear rally" peaking and a coming recession The COT data has had us in this trade for the last couple months - just 1 SPY Call profited over $2,000. Personally, I took profits last week in accordance to my trading system. However, with the COT data still pointing heavily long, I'm looking for the daily chart to signal a long entry this week Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson for meats, Cargill and General Mills for grains, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them (trade against) when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy (Green shading), look to sell when it hits 0 (red shading) - I use both a short-term and long-term lookback - When the small speculators are at max positions as well, it's further proof to get in the trade (shading gets darker) - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario). This is very common with Gold for example Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart, use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (I have a proprietary reversal signal I use) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize) - If the trend is against you on both a Weekly and Daily chart, the short and long term Index must both be signaling to trade. If the trade fails, look to reverse the position and go with the trend
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Rudeadam18
AUDCAD 1st AUGUST 2022We can see AUDCAD breakout and retest after a few days of uptrend in rising wedge area. Technically price tend to be bearish. COT Analysis AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 07/26/22 (CONTRACTS OF AUD 100,000) Long : 30,024 ; Short : 77,409 Macro trend tends to be bearish. CHANGES FROM 07/19/22 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST) Long : -554 ; Short : 3,683 Micro trend tends to be bearish. CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 07/26/22 (CONTRACTS OF CAD 100,000) Long : 46,414 ; Short : 30,645 Macro trend tends to be bullish. CHANGES FROM 07/19/22 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST) Long : 4,374 ; Short : -4,728 Micro trend tends to be bullish.
Short
by DNP-FX
2
Long Crude! - Trading with the COT ReportThis is a great example of how to trade the COT Index and Net positioning - Commercials for crude oil are almost always net short (Think of all the big oil companies hedging their product) but in this instance, they are less net-long than they have been in quite some time (Not since November 2016). Look on the daily chart for an entry - be patient - remember your stops. I also like that the macro trend is positive. Added bonus - a great way to hedge your prices at the pump. Note: Trading the COT simply tells you when we're in a bullish/bearish environment. An entry still needs to be made based on price behavior. Additional Note: Look how accurate the COT Index has been on Crude (Red and Green highlighting on the lower chart) Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart, use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Rudeadam18
2
Long Wheat (ZW) - COT Thrust Signal (Read for Explanation)CBOT:ZW1! A bit of a unique chart setup here - typically I trade based solely on the max positioning of the commercials (See below for an explanation of what that means). However, I will occasionally look for a buy when the Net positioning of commercials has accelerated recently (Indicated by black bars in the COT indicator at bottom of the chart). For this trade, use the daily chart for an entry using your favorite technical indicator (if it triggers!). Note: Crop Progress report on Monday Risk: There has been some recent heavy selling making this slightly counter trend Additional Note: Look how accurate the COT Index has been on calling highs and lows for Wheat (Green and Red highlighting on the bottom indicator). And no, I did not optimize the settings to get this to occur. Helping Materials to Understand What I'm Talking About (I have this on all my ideas now) COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0. The black bars show when the index is moving rapidly and can also trigger a trade) - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart , use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here)
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Rudeadam18
Long Russell! - Trading w Commercials - Fading Speculators (COT)Looking at the net positions of the Commercials (Red Line), the Russell 2000 is at record high levels. Additionally, the small speculators (Blue Line - tough to see but it's blown up on lower indicator)) are very short compared to historical levels. The COT index on the bottom shows dark green when both commercials are maxed net long and small speculators are maxed net short. Use a daily chart with your favorite indicator/candlestick pattern to look for entry - be patient - don't forget a stop. See below for explanations of what you're looking at and what I'm talking about with COT RISKS: The trend is down which makes this counter-trend trade COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart, use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here)
CME_MINI:RTY1!Long
by Rudeadam18
1