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COT

GBPJPY ready for larger correction down?Looking at the recent COT report it becomes clear that over the past weeks Yen net shorts have been cut by more than half and are now at a high level that have acted as roof the past 12 months. Yen longs have been added at a higher rate while GBPJPY did it's climb towards the 168.5x level. This time the reduced Yen shorts have been done at critical level. GBPJPY is very Fib friendly and halted at the 2015-2020 61.8 fib level. Comparing the USD GBP and JPY index, it is clear that JPY is the driver in GBPJPY lately. Looking at the fundamentals JPY "should" continue to be weak until signs tells us otherwise, but markets need to take profits all the time and reload at better prices. At the two prior adjustments to the short bias in Yen, price in GBPJPY fell during those periods and then turn making investors add back to net yen shorts. This time price has spiked up while net shorts reduced heavy i.e. yen longs entered the market more aggressively and yen shorts exited the market. Even though the price first fell after first 168.5x run and then did a new run at the 168.7x level net shorts continued to decrease without increasing the net short exposure and became even more aggressive at the 168.7x top. The COT report indicates to me that we have seen investors reduce their negative exposure in the Yen quite aggressively at a key area. The wider swings is also a sign of reversal in the making. The lower high this week was another sign of exhaustion BUT fridays daily candle did put me off so I am still a bit careful. Looking at the 4 hour chart the 164.40-50 level is most likely the confirmation that is needed to go full bearish in GBPJPY. So, yes I read a bigger move could be in the works or are already in motion. But to where? Thats above my paygrade and interest. Reading the COT will give us clues about what investors want. So i will wait for clues on when they are done buying back the Yen. On the last two similar moves in net positions price reversed up. This time the decreasing net positions are at the highs so a shift is most likely in the making and we could drop sub 150.00 but I would expect a minimum test of 155.7X. The latest shift in Yen from positive to negative net positions was march 2021 at 151.XX level. Investors are still net negative and this by it self also tells us that there are more investors short in the yen than there is investors that is long. But the added yen longs and decreased yen shorts at the GBPJPY top indicates that we will see more adjustments to positive in the yen and GBPJPY will drop further coming weeks unless GBP suddenly gets some strength and starts rising harder than the YEN. But for now the GBP net negative positions does not move at the same rate as the YEN even though they also decrease their net negative positions. For the near future Yen will drive GBPJPY and a sharper correction in net YEN positions here at the highs indicate lower GBPJPY prices. Short GBPJPY 164.40 sl 168.80 tp 155.80 Boxes in chart are similar changes in Net positions according to COT.
GShort
by Stensen
BUY IN THE LONGTERM ALONG THE DESCENDING CHANNELThe Euro Area GDP expanded by 0.6% on quarter in Q1 2022, twice a 0.3% growth in the previous estimate, and above a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in Q4. Improved export activities. Exports increased 0.4% while imports fell 0.6%. Concerns around the war in Ukraine resulting in inflationary pressures on food prices and supply disruptions The ECB is set to end 8 years of negative interest rates, in an attempt to curb record inflation, which is likely to weigh on consumer spending and investment. The European Commission expects the EA GDP growth at 2.7% for 2022. ECB President Lagarde reaffirmed plans to hike rates twice this summer. The Euro Dollar Exchange Rate - EUR/USD is expected to trade at 1.04 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts' expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1.00 in 12 months' time. Net positions of large speculators declined significantly by 112% to negative sentiment in the futures market on the 14th of June 2022. We expect to hold 3 months Call contracts along the lower bands of the descending channel
Long
by dynamiquebd
Overall look at Nas. Looking for demand to buy from...There is a B.O.S arrow there. Break Of Supply. We had a LL, market was selling. But the Buy pressure broke the last Supply before the LL. The new HH has respected Daily supply yes, but left strong demand areas. If we are going to be in a new buy trend, where demand is respected and supply is broken, we just need to respect the demand and go higher. If not The new trend would need to respect supply areas and break the demand zones. Thus, either way we want to see price at the demand areas. So we will sell it until we get there...
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by V4p3R_7r4D3r
$BTC - Run May Have Been Short Lived - FVG's Below To FilL *SMT**SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and Balance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids.) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. TLDR; Entry: 32,100 Stop Loss: 33,080 Take Profit: 28,000 After placing a Fib on the Current Wave, It became clear that we may be headed lower.... again. My Mentorship taught me to think of weekly profiles and how weekly candles form. The rush up just seemed like a wick for the week. Then I pulled the fib and noticed that the Discount price was at the exact line for the large Fair Value Gap (Imbalance) below. Additionally, I went to Barchart.com and looked at the Commitment of Traders report to find that Commercial traderds have reported additional net shorts than previously recorded. That was my first tip that Bitc could be going down as of Yesterday. I still Have my Analysis that BTC will get to 21,400. But for now, let's take baby steps and look to se if 28,000 first.
CME:BTC1!Short
by BodiesXWix
5
SP500 - the best time to LONGIn this analysis, I used several leading indicators - commitment of traders index (CFTS), insiders (Form 4 SEC ) and the greed and fear index (CNN Business). In commitment of traders index I period 19 - it's a middle of 13 (quarter) and 26 (half year). In practice, it is this period that provides the best results (not only on sp500, but also on other instruments). Historically, the chart shows how well this leading indicator performs. At the moment, we have not yet seen a direct signal to buy, but the fact is that we receive a signal with a slight delay (a week), and it is quite possible that we are actually already in the buy zone. And it is quite possible that we will still go to the previous volume zone (around 3600). Next indicator is Insiders data. The chart clearly shows that each increased number of insider buying (more than 150) leads to a subsequent increase of the market. Now the indicator reached 180, so we expect the sp500 index to start growing. Greed and Fear Index is one of the best leading data. And he also shows just perfect results on history! Current values from 7 to 15 are an indicator of extreme fear, and values below 10 start all the longest trends. I do not set the levels where the sp500 index will reach, as they will be dictated by the market, and leading indicators will show a reversal. And only there I will close long positions in order to get the maximum profit from the growing trend. P.S. On the chart, for reasons unknown to me, the arrows for insiders and the fear index moved a little - I hope this will not interfere with understanding the idea.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by CapitalizatorUA
7
XAUUSD 19th APRIL 2022The price of Gold was supported by investors against Russia and Ukraine as well as the outlook for China's economic growth given. Based on the COT report that was last released, it showed that large institutions tended to hold contracts for long positions totaling 165,244 more than short 48,219, and they continued to add to their total 16,924 more long positions than short 1,526. We can see the price forming a bullish channel, we can take this opportunity to buy near the support area.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DNP-FX
4
$MTS - To Fill 4 Hr Fair Value Gap on Order Block For Up Bounce*SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. It's slowly working it's way down into the smart money "Buy Zone" or discounted area. With Kucoins 60% staking of the coin, I'm surprised it's going this low. But I have three short targets along the way up.
Long
by BodiesXWix
Short Idea for GBPUSDThe US dollar fluctuated between 95.6 and 96.6 last month. Traders' confusion over interest rate hikes, as well as duplicity in talks with the Federal Reserve, have kept the dollar afloat. But given the job data, the CPI data, which shows inflation well, has kept traders believing that the US Federal Reserve will soon plan to raise interest rates. Therefore, according to the picture above, we predict the upward movement of the dollar index. With this rise and strengthening of the dollar as soon as possible, we can see better GBPUSD currency pairs. As we can see, this currency pair is located in a descending channel and now the roof of this channel is at the LH point. Also, by examining the COT data, the net positions of the British pound are still 50,719 selling positions, which will continue the decline of this currency. Also, compared to last week, the 6967 trading position is closed and makes this currency pair have a short rise. GBPUSD COT data
Short
by Alisabbaghi
1
Currency, cycles and money flowCurrency, cycles and money flow Currency is a system for flowing of money – According to the Oxford English dictionary, it is paper and coins in circulation and whilst all currency is money not all money is currency. Actually, derived from the old French language “Corant” meaning running, eager, swift, lively. And this is from the Latin “currere” to run or move quickly. So, by sheer definition Bitcoin and Crypto is exactly that. However, as majority of the HODLer mentality in the market – the desire and the WANT is not enough for the price to attack 100k, 200k or a million a bitcoin without understanding the economics even in its simple form. Money circulation is what makes the world go around – an economy can only flourish if the money flow is constant. This is also true for the crypto market. And this is where the cycles come into the formula. You see, money is different than gold which is different to majority of other commodities. Going back hundreds of years we had barter systems where items where simply swapped for other items. But as civilisations seemingly advanced, we needed a store of value that would not rot, whither or die and this is why Gold was “a safe” value in exchange for items people would barter for. Skip forward a few hundred years -- we have seen corruption and greed de-value gold, not in its physical form but in its inherent principles. You only need to rummage through Pandora papers or the Panama to get a feeling of money flow. The issue here is whilst majority of us here with access to the internet and a roof over your head would be regarded as first world poor. The majority of the less fortunate would fall into the category of third world poor. (in comparison to the levels of wealth, leaked in the papers above). The influential and ultra-high net worth’s can sit out a recession and buy the dip. But for the first world poor they are often the guys selling at the discount and often buying at a premium. It is all a flow of money, and this creates the money flow cycle. Such cycles have been dissected by the likes of Elliott, who introduced the Elliott wave theory. See the link for info on this topic. So why does this matter? Why will this be no different – although majority of the linear thinking believe in their heart of hearts that “it’s different this time” The reason – is that linear thinkers want the buy and hold strategy to turn a small amount of capital into millions or billions. The idea is no different than placing gold coins and piles of cash under your bed. Without money flowing in and out of the system – there needs to be a constant flow of new buyers and someone willing to sell to these buyers. Velocity of money is key! For this we need industry adoption, and the best way to drive that is to reduce fees and make the technologies more available. So whilst ‘Diamond hand’ mentality seems logical, it’s also a speed bump in the way to true trajectory in the under pinning value. In the recent rally we saw very little volume come into the move up, the price was above 50k before seeing any kind of regular volume (not high volume). We broke to a new ATH and yet failed to stay there for more than a day. This is still concerning for the larger picture – when highs are broken, you should expect momentum and a follow through. The more under the mattress – the more the velocity we achieve. Now here’s where it still feels a little premature to celebrate moon calls to a $1m a coin level. Take a look at the COT leveraged funds information; These guys are not getting REKT – these guys are selling low volume to the retail crowd. I said about the cycles; I have covered this in several posts – here again is the roadmap I painted in March this year. And so far, we have not really deviated from the trajectory. Here is the post And here’s the current situation; Similarly, for the “they blew up the rocket call” So, I cannot ignore the cycles, the lack of velocity and of course the money flow itself. Renowned economist John Maynard Keynes popularised the shift of paradox – which stated individuals tried to save more during a recession which leads to a fall in aggregate demand, in turn effecting the economic growth. For an economy to grow it needs to flow. This flow is what cause the cycles. I recently read the book “the chimp paradox” how it simplified human logic into 3 categories – we are chimps, human or a computer. When fear and greed take over, we often use our chimp brain to assess the situation and all rational goes out the window. We only agree with our own beliefs and dismiss all other points of view, regardless of the logic and empathy behind it. When money stands still, it is no longer money. This is why saving, storing hoarding will never make the economy wealthy. The services and goods purchased will still need to be purchased and new users to the system need to first adopt the system – these becoming the new bag holders for the generation before them. Which takes me onto the next point; a new flow of money. With a new flow of money “where is this generated”? You take the new ETF for example, this allows pension funds to invest into crypto (this is where most linear thinkers, believe it’s all rosy) they will use their chimp brain logic to only see the positive. However, as a fund manager myself I am happy to take 2% fees for the money I manage and then add a success fee on top of that usually around 15-22% The truth is when fund managers get enough money under management – the 2% fee keeps them in luxury yachts and private jet charters. The investors can make a small – usually a few points above base and the fund managers move onto the next new shinny thing for more management fees. Moral of the story – fund managers get rich first and clients are often secondary. If no service or value can be given, money stands still. It is here we move into the arguments for Socialism, capitalism and Communism. Where do you think the governments will take crypto? Do you think there is not much that governments can do? What’s your opinion on regulation? How does crypto get to $1m a coin, I mean what’s the supporting logic for such a move. Who are the new bag holders? All comments welcome. Be interesting to see what people think of the flow to hodl thinking. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
16
What we have see on USDJPY, It will be fall to the 112 areaHey friends, and trader We forecast downside movement for the USDJPY for several reasons 1. USD is overbought and over-priced in 2 months ago 2. JPY is oversold and this is a good and cheap price for this safe-haven currency 3. Smart buyers are buying in these prrices. 4. As you see in the picture, The non-commercial traders usually are buyers in these prices cause the JPY is being valuable in these prices. 5. Buy trend line is broken in the H4 time frame so if you are a swing trader or long-term trader it's a good opportunity for you. Good Lock, Wish you money With respect Ali Sabbaghi ziwox.com
Short
by Alisabbaghi