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COT

COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: The AUD suffered the biggest outflow amongst the major with the CFTC data updated until Tuesday the 8th of June, which should arguably not be surprising given the prior outperformance in the currency before that happened. This week the focus for the AUD turns to the incoming Employment report where labour data has been touted by many as the most important consideration for the RBA regarding potential policy changes or updates. For the NZD we have Q1 GDP data coming up which should provide us with an interesting outcome on our AUDNZD short trade. The recent underperformance of the NZD has been quite surprising, and our view that the fundamental outlook points to further strength has been shared by numerous investment banks. We’ll see whether GDP data is what the NZD needs to move back in line with its underlying bias. For the CAD, positioning is something that we are focused on, especially with the CAD trading “elevated” against numerous currencies, we need to be mindful of some possible mean reversion. JPY, CHF & USD: Our fundamental outlook for the US Dollar has shifted from Weak Bearish to Neutral. The assessment of risk to the currency is more balanced in our view as we head closer and closer towards potential tapering by the Fed. Apart from that, real yields are expected to remain a key driver in the short-term and something we will use for potential short-term direction bias alongside incoming economic data points. This week, the main event for the US Dollar will of course be the upcoming FOMC meeting, where the elephant(s) in the room will be the massive upside surprises in US CPI readings compared to the FOMC’s March projections, as well as what the bank will have to say about tapering discussions (those ones that Fed Powell said they haven’t been having but the April minutes showed they have) For the JPY, the ongoing divergence between US10Y and the safe-haven currency will be a focus point of ours this week. As the Fed and quad witching is in the mix this week we need to keep safe-haven flows in mind this week as a potential supporting factor if equities see some jitters. GBP: Even though the bias for Sterling remains titled to the upside, as the third largest net-long position among the majors we do need to be mindful of the current short-term risks for the currency. We received confirmation that the UK’s planned reopening on the 21st of June will be delayed by four weeks. This was already touted last week so the impact might be lesser this week, and also due to the fact that it won’t derail the economic recovery which means the outlook is still favourable. However, coupled with the ongoing Northern Ireland Protocol issues with the EU we need to be mindful of some potential risk premium build up in Sterling which could translate into some short-term downside. We would consider any sizeable corrections as opportunities to engage from better levels, especially against the EUR and the JPY. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. Issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency still has complications, but with the vaccination roll out gathering momentum we have seen sentiment data picking up on the prospects of a reopening. The EUR has remained well supported over the past few weeks as the USD continued to lose favour and as markets look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift restrictions. If the EU can reach their vaccination targets, we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind that of the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information and data before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 8 June 2021.
by thunderpips
EURNZD - 07 – 11 June 21 Week Trade PlanEURNZD This is my 07 – 11 June 21 Week Trade Plan for EURNZD Previous Month : Bullish Previous Week : Bullish Daily : Bearish As anticipated last week, EURNZD played the range from 6650/7020 and with the daily solid close on 28 May it pushed it to the range high at 6980/7020 Res Zone with some Res formation on the way up at 6820/6860. As EURNZD still in range and no clear break out, i expect EURNZD to again test the range lows at 6700/6650. COT report showing that NZD shorts had increased their positions but still not convincing as it's only one week that showed that increase. Longs are still holding their positions. A confirmation that NZD shorts are into the market when i see 2 to 3 weeks consecutive increases in short positions . Seasonality showing that NZD will weaken till mid May and strength till end of May continuing into June to create new NZD highs which will lead EURNZD to create a new low. Technically, i'm looking for EURNZD to still range between 7020/6650, which makes me look for longs from range lows and shorts from range highs as long no break and support/resistance formation above Sup/Res zones marked. My plan for this week as EURNZD reached the top of the range, i'll look for resistance formation below the daily resistance formed and below the Res zone at 6980/7020 to short back to the range low at 6700/6650. My preferred longs will be above the Res zone 6980/7020 with support formation above on 4H. No major news this week for NZD and Monday is NZD Bank Holiday.
by Amr_Sadek
EURNZD - 31 May to 4 June 2021 Weekly Trade PlanEURNZD This is my 31 May– 4 June 21 Week Trade Plan for EURNZD Glad that i'm back after a long break again to my favorite habit "Charting" Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bullish Daily : Bullish - After creating new high at 1.7020 resistance, EURNZD couldn't hold a support above the resistance zone 6980/7020 along with previous week news on Wednesday that leaded for more NZD strength pushing the price into the tough ranging zone 6800/6680. - The current drop in EURNZD still holding above the solid support zone 6650/6600 which could lead to a range plays from lows to retest the highs at 7020. - COT report still showing that NZD longs are firm and at the highest of the year and shorts are still weak, which means that i do expect EURNZD to maintain the bearish momentum and continue it's down move and any spike in price up reaching a solid resistance level/zone is going to get rejected and will give a solid opportunity for Shorts. - Seasonality showing that NZD will weaken till mid May and strength till end of May continuing into June to create new NZD highs which will lead EURNZD to create a new low. - Technically, i'm looking for EURNZD to still range between 7020/6650, which makes me look for longs from range lows and shorts from range highs as long no break and support/resistance formation above Sup/Res zones marked. - On Friday, RBNZ Gov Orr will have a speech on London session open which will cause NZD to be volatile, so taking cautious at that time will be recommended. Daily Chart: Weekly Chart: Monthly Chart:
by Amr_Sadek
Trading in the ZoneJust wanted to share some info on the calls from last week and some updates. We are now in the zone mentioned a nice catch of a short $14,000 drop on the "Crypto Beast" Wyckoff structure has played it's hand and it was beautiful. One happy chappy! Now we are at the zone, expecting a slow move up, some addition sideways consolidation before a couple of traps are put into motion. Paul covers some of this in the latest stream. Thanks @Paul_Varcoe for a great update stream earlier! www.tradingview.com Have a great week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
7
Gold - GC Gold Futures are rising as non-commercials add to their long positions. - Currently net long 192.3k, up 21.5k. In the week to Wednesday, for the first time in 16 weeks, GLD (SPDR Gold ETF) saw positive flows, gaining $340 million (courtesy of ETF.com). In the meantime, non-commercials raised net longs in gold futures to an 11-week high. Last week, the metal jumped 3.6 percent after repeatedly defending $1,760s-$1,770s. The nearest support lies at $1,800, and of course $1,760s-$1,770s after that.
COMEX:GC1!
by TH_Analysis
4
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: The biggest mover among the three high beta majors was the CAD which showed a fairly big increase in net long positioning of +10K. What is even more interesting about this is that it occurred before the BOC meeting on Wednesday, which means this Friday’s data should show yet another big increase in positioning after the hawkish tilt from the BOC. In terms of the AUD, positioning is back in negative territory after a -5K position change, fairly large and most likely due to the exacerbated downside we saw the AUD two weeks ago with the risk off flush in risk assets which hit the AUD much harder than it’s high beta counterparts. This week will be fairly light on the data front for the CAD and NZD with CPI data in focus for the AUD. We would expect the CAD’s upward momentum to continue after the BOC’s meeting but as always external factors such as risk sentiment and oil will be important considerations. JPY, CHF & USD: US 10-year bond yields remains one of the key drivers for the USDJPY and a key asset to watch for the next direction of the pair. With the overall global risk outlook as well as the med-term bias for US10Y still tilted higher, we still expect USDJPY to drift higher and would keep a close eye on the price action for additional upside opportunities. As for the Dollar, not much has changed. The med-term bias remains titled to the downside, and the move lower in US10Y has certainly also helped to push the greenback lower. This week we do have the upcoming FOMC meeting as well as Q1 GDP. Even though markets are not expecting a lot from the FOMC there are a few caveats that could create some volatility in the Dollar. GBP: Sterling finally started to show more signs of life this past week, but once again did not manage to take advantage of that strength versus the EUR. The market’s continued expectations for a recovery narrative in the EU has continued to keep the EUR supported, alongside a continued push lower in the USD. The fundamental outlook for the GBP remains unchanged, and with some of the upside positioning being unwound, we would expect the GBP to resume its med-term upside momentum. However, it does seem like markets might be waiting for a catalyst in the short-term to do so. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few sessions as the Dollar has continued to lose favour. The one positive though, and one of which a lot of participants are banking on right now, is that the vaccination roll out is gaining some positive momentum, and if the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could see a faster recovery in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials, or compared that from a monetary policy normalization point of view, it will still be far behind that of the US and the UK, which is why we are staying patient with our view on the EUR for now, waiting for more information before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 20 April 2021.
by thunderpips
4
EURAUD Euro is smashing the Australian DollarFOREXCOM:EURAUD After a long time daily downtrend its seems that euro want to be strong; and after reject from a monthly support and trapped in a triangle; We expect that price go up and reach to the top of the triangle. In other words, after the weekly impulse and complete the correction until 0.786 of fibo Retracement, my expectation is the price will break the resistance and makes higher high. but because of time and some economic news that will release in the next week i will put my T/P under the resistance. Then if the market shift from the bearish to bullish we can make a long position. WHAT DO YOU THINK ??? ENTRY PRICE = 1.54950 T/P = 1.56500 S/L = 1.54450 Risk/Reward Ratio : 3.10 PLEASE PUSH THE 'LIKE' BUTTOM IF YOU ENJOY!!!
Long
by vr_shabanian
COT CURRENCY REPORTOverall: With the CFTC data updated until 6 April the AUD showed the biggest decrease of (-8K) and the JPY showing the biggest increase of (+1K). AUD, NZD & CAD: Positioning data for the AUD, NZD and CAD updated until the 6th of April still shows more room to run to the upside for the three high beta commodity-sensitive FX majors, especially after the recent push lower in the likes of the NZD and AUD. This week's upcoming RBNZ meeting is expected to largely be a non-event and should not have much to change the med-term outlook for the bank or the NZD. Some meaningful data to watch in the week ahead will be Aussie Jobs data as well as important Chinese growth data for the AUD. As for the CAD, Friday's stellar jobs report should have solidified the market's expectations that the BOC will move forward with tapering QE at the April meeting, and should provide upside momentum for the currency running into the policy meeting. JPY & CHF & USD: The JPY saw a modest come back in positioning, which was to be expected as the currency saw a 96K positioning change going from a +29K net long to a -59K net short position in 6 short weeks. That registered as more than a 4 standard deviation move two weeks ago, and is still showing a -3.3 z-score on a 1-year look back with Friday's CFTC update. The big driver for the JPY remains the US10Y, which means this week's upcoming US bond auctions (10- year and 30-year), as well as incoming CPI data will be very important for the US10Y and thus the JPY. With yield differentials one of the key drivers* of the Dollar in recent weeks, the incoming US data points will be the main focus point for the greenback in the week ahead, alongside overall risk appetite as the better than expected US data and a sizable unwind of the Dollar's oversubscribed short bets have arguably turned the attention for the Dollar back to the med-term bias. GBP: The past few trading sessions have not been kind to the GBP, as short-term concerns about the Astrazeneca vaccine has weighed on the Pound. However, arguably the biggest driver for Sterling has been cross flows as EURGBP saw a sizable squeeze in the extended bearish trend. Even though the bias for EURGBP remains titled lower in the med-term, any extended trend is always susceptible to violent squeeze when reaching key areas of support or resistance. The challenge with a squeeze is that we don't know how long it will last, and with moves like these it's best to either wait for a new fresh bearish catalyst to use as a trigger for new shorting opportunities, or to wait for the pair to break back below key technicals levels with some follow through. EUR: The upside in the EUR this past week has gone against the overall downside bias for the single currency which has been based on the EU's slower vaccine roll out; rise in virus cases; new lockdown restrictions; growth differentials; monetary policy expectations; and fiscal stimulus. Some have argued that the big unwind in net long positioning over the past few weeks have seen the EUR reach an equilibrium as most of the negatives mentioned above should already be reflected in the price at this point. ING has also noted that there is a possibility that "traders wanting to jump in early on the EUR recovery story – more signs of which should emerge through the quarter as, for example, vaccination programs gain pace in the likes of France and Germany". However, in our view it's far too early to be buying the EUR en masse in the hopes of an eventual catch up in vaccines and growth, especially on the growth side with the recovery fund yet to be ratified and large parts of the EU still under lockdowns while the UK and US is opening up. But, as we noted last week, the sensitivity of the EUR to the Dollar also explains some of the upside in the EUR, and remains a key factor to watch in the week ahead. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 6 April 2021.
by thunderpips
2
GBPJPY - 5-9 April Weekly Trade PlanGBPJPY Monthly: Bullish Weekly Bullish Daily: Bullish 4H: Bullish COT: GBP : Long 68% - Short 32% (Strong) JPY : Long 23% - Short 77% (Weak) Monthly: Solid bullish and with previous month close above 150.40 indicates a bullish continuation to target current monthly resistance at 155. Weekly: Solid Bullish after 22-26 March week candle tested broken resistance 148.85 and bounced with a long nice lower wick. While last week closed solid bullish above the resistance formed at 151.62. Current weekly resistance is 153.84 April 2018 weekly candle wick then 155. Daily: Strong Bullish momentum with close above previous resistance formed at 151.90 and with GBP is currently strong and JPY is weak from COT data that is already reflected on the chart, bullish momentum continuation is expected to extend further to target 155. Retracement should be contained within 151.90/151. So I've 2 Scenarios for next week as following: Scenario 1 : Looking for GJ to retrace and form a support between 152.26 and 151.84 to confirm creating a HL to extend the bullish momentum and to test highs Scenario 2 : A failure to create a support will indicate a LH is formed and we may extend the correction to test 150.68 Weekly Trade Plan 4H Chart: Daily Chart Outlook:
by Amr_Sadek
COT CURRENCY REPORTThis report reflects the COTdata updated until 23 Mar 2021. Overall: With the CFTC data updated until 23 March the JPY showed the biggest decrease of (-14K) and the EUR showing the biggest increase of (+3K). AUD, NZD & CAD: After sizable moves lower with the recent risk off flushes, all three high betas remain bullish in the med-term outlook, and with relatively small net long positions, there is still more room to run. In the week ahead it's going to be very quiet on the data front, but we will have a few events to watch for WTI which could have impact on the CAD such as the upcoming JMMC meeting and more developments with the Suez Canal. Also keep in mind this week we will have month-end and quarter-end, we also have a shortened week due to Good Friday, which means liquidity is likely going to be unfavourable. Thus, even though med-term biases remain intact do watch out for erratic price moves without any real catalyst. JPY & CHF & USD: Another big increase in net-short positions for the JPY. The speed of the move in the JPY has been very excessive in the short-term, with the 1-year z-score printing a 4.5 with this past week's data. That is a very big deviation from the norm, which means we do want to be a bit careful with the JPY from a positioning point of view. Even though the JPY has been at the mercy of moves in US10Y, a sudden move higher from some profit taking is a risk to keep in mind. The Dollar was the star performer last week, pushing higher across the board even while US10Y was pushing lower for the majority of the week. The short-term drivers that has recently affected the Dollar is still very much in play such as yield differentials, better relative growth & inflation dynamics as well as the faster policy normalization expectations for the FED. However, again from positioning, the move in the USD does look stretched in the short-term so keep that in mind going into the new week. GBP: The bias for Sterling remains titled to the upside, especially versus the EUR, where EURGBP managed to close below the important support at 0.8550. This week is going to be very light on the data front, so focus will remain on the overall driver for EURGBP such as vaccine roll out (UK well ahead), growth expectations (UK well ahead), monetary policy (UK far less dovish), fiscal policy (EU still waiting for ratification), new virus cases (rising much faster in EU). EUR: The reasons to expect downside for the EUR has been on the rise recently. Whether we consider the vaccine roll out, or recent virus numbers, or lockdown restrictions, or relative growth dynamics, or policy normalization expectations, all the above point to further downside for the EUR versus the USD and GBP, as well as the high betas. Despite shedding a lot of net long positioning in the past two months, the EUR remains the largest net long position among the majors, which means there is quite a bit of room to run to the downside if the above concerns continue to pressure the single currency. For the week ahead, the focus will be on the incoming US ISM Manufacturing PMI as well as the March NFP report (which is expected to show a sizable jump on the headline). If we see these two data points print significantly higher than expected, it will mean more downside for the EURUSD, which should also be supportive for further EURGBP downside as well.
by thunderpips
21
EURNZD - 29 March - 2 April 21 Week Trade PlanEURNZD Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bullish Daily : Bearish - EURNZD managed finally to break the range 1.6660/1.6520 to the upside with a solid 300 pip bullish candle which was due to NZD housing prices and Risk Off sentiment in market (NZD is a risk driven currency) reaching a solid resistance zone 1.7020/1.6980. - Currently resistance zone is a historical Sup/Res that did hold for several times. Lately acted as a solid resistance during Jan in a ranging area from 1.7020 1.6820. - COT report showing that NZD long positions are getting closed while NZD shorts are not increasing which means that this is a take profit for Long positions and still not a change in positions to Short NZD. We need more views on next 2 weeks positioning in order to have clear view on position changes. - Seasonality showing that EURNZD will reach it’s top this month and will start continuing it’s bearish trend. Which could justify the spike this month along with the COT long positions. - I’m looking for EURNZD to range between 1.7020/1.6820 after the current run from the lows created at 1.6500 which acts as a HL after the 1.6320 LL created in Feb. - Will prefer longs with support formation above 1.6700 to retest the highs created at 1.6980 and may be continuation. And shorts with resistance formation below 1.6980 to retest the broken range high at 1.6660/1.6620 - Building Permits on Tuesday and Consumer Confidence on Thursday may give some move during Asian Session but not trend changer. Weekly Trade Plan 4H Chart:
by Amr_Sadek
EURNZD - 22-26 March 21 Week Trade Plan EURNZD Can't find a clear direction for EURNZD now as we are in a very tide range for 3 weeks. A break of this range and a sustain momentum after the break will give us a clear way where we are heading. I recommend not to trade EURNZD till a clear direction. Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bearish Daily : Bearish - The COT report showing that NZD buyers are closing longs and Shorts had increased to 40% from 30% last week. With such change in positions, we could see EURNZD move to the upside but be cautious that this could be a profit taking for Long position. Will monitor COT report in coming weeks to clearly understand the positions swaps. - As for news this week, the important are on Monday Westpac Consumer Survey and Wednesday Trade Balance which will move the market. Trade Plan Daily Chart: Also refer to my last week analysis for more details:
by Amr_Sadek
EURNZD - 15-19 March 21 Week Trade PlanFX:EURNZD Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bullish Daily : Bullish - EURNZD still ranging between 1.6700 / 1.6560 after creating low at 1.6320 triggered by Interest Rate Decision and retraced back the whole down move. The range high is contained below the daily support at 1.666x with rejection to hold above 1.6700. - Looking for either support formation above 1.6700 to trigger Long positions or resistance formation below 1.6570 to trigger shorts. Also, current range trades could be played till we break this range 1.6700/1.6560. So, I may look to Short on 4H Res formation below 1.6700 and Long on Solid 4H formation above 1.6560. - The COT report showing that NZD buyers are still in control and increasing their NZD long positions. Still NZD sellers are not into market yet and this adds confirmations for EURNZD to continue bearish momentum. - Seasonality is showing that NZD will weaken till end March, but still NZD holding and continuing it's strength. We could see some reversals on EURNZD as we had created new lows, but still such spikes are opportunities for better shorts. - So with Current solid bearish momentum, COT and Seasonality; I'd expect EURNZD to continue the bearish momentum and any spike will be treated as a good opportunity for shorts until a solid support formation above 1.7020 level. - Important news for NZD this week on Thursday GDP and Wednesday Rate Decision which will move the NZD. Week Trade Plan Daily Chart: Daily Levels Daily Chart:
by Amr_Sadek
EURNZD - 08-12 March 21 Week Trade Plan EURNZD Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bearish Daily : Bearish - EURNZD edged a bit higher last week away for ranging zone 6650/6550 at 6760 a bit shy from the major resistance at 6820 that is currently acting as a solid barrier for EURNZD. But on 4H a HH/HL we can see a HH/HL formation that may act as a trigger to test the 6820 resistance. - A Solid HTF Support formation above 6820 will indicate that a low formed for a 7020 target. Failure to sustain a support above 6820 and with HTF solid resistance formation below 6820 will be a sign for bearish momentum continuation and we may retest the lows created at 6320 - The COT report showing that NZD buyers are still in control and increasing their NZD long positions. Still NZD sellers are not into market yet and this adds confirmations for EURNZD to continue bearish momentum. - Seasonality is showing that NZD will weaken till end March, but still NZD holding and continuing it's strength. We could see some reversals on EURNZD as we had created new lows, but still such spikes are opportunities for better shorts. - So with Current solid bearish momentum, COT and Seasonality; i'd expect EURNZD to continue the bearish momentum and any spike will be treated as a good opportunity for shorts until a solid support formation above 1.7020 level. - Through trading several Months EURNZD, I prefer to see retracements to any move in order to have a range to trade to target created. So i recommend to Short after retracement or break and Resistance formation below broken Support and vise versa for Longs. - Important news for NZD this week on Friday Business NZ PM and some important news for China on Wednesday may move NZD during Asia Session. Weekly Outlook Chart: Daily Outlook Chart: Weekly Trade Plan:
by Amr_Sadek
EURNZD - 01-05 March 21 Week Trade Plan FX:EURNZD Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bullish Previous Daily : Bullish - EURNZD as expected created a lower resistance below 6660 which pushed EIRNZD to create a new low at 6320 helped by Interest rate news and NZ economical optimism. The new low created triggered a hard pullback as it was Feb End and profit taking which currently pushed EURNZD again above 6660. - The COT report showing that NZD buyers are still in control and increasing their NZD long positions. Still NZD sellers are not into market yet and this adds confirmations for EURNZD continued bearish momentum. - Seasonality is showing that NZD will weaken in March, but still NZD holding and continuing it's strength. We could see some reversals on EURNZD as we had created new lows, but still such spikes are opportunities for better shorts. - So with Current solid bearish momentum, COT and Seasonality; i'd expect EURNZD to continue the bearish momentum and any spike will be treated as a good opportunity for shorts until a solid support formation above 1.7020 level. - Through trading several Months EURNZD, I prefer to see retracements to any move in order to have a range to trade to target created. So i recommend to Short after retracement or break and Resistance formation below broken Support and vise versa for Longs. - Important news for NZD this week on Wednesday Building Permits and RBNZ's Governor Orr speech on Thursday. Monthly Outlook: Weekly Outlook: Daily Outlook: Weekly Trade Plan 4H Chart:
by Amr_Sadek
Near Term buy Supporting the previous post of a DXY move down. I would like to see EU make some new highs up towards the next major zone (in blue). COT data suggest we are currently favouring a long position from both asset managers and leveraged funds. with a 96% bias on the asset managers. The Leverage funds have slowed down the selling of the Euro from mid-Jan. So again, further support of a Bullish move coming. Regression and Stochastic also stack up to favour this move over the next month. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Long
by Mayfair_Ventures