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Cotton

CT overbought. Looking for sideways to take a breatherTechnically overbought. New highs made with declining volume. Not an indicator for continued strength. Overall uptrend is intact, but we are near upper end of trend channel. On top of that market is overbought based on BB, RSI and Stochastik. Targets: 1. Middle bollinger Band 2.Upsloping red shorter term trendline 3. Longer term red trend line, and 100 day MA and lower BB (all similar area). --> big support 4. 200 day MA (yellow)
C
by mjhillpp
1
RunningAlpha Upgrades Commodity Markets Update to Priority ListRunningAlpha dot com Capital Markets Intelligence High Priority Update for Monday, May 2nd, 2016 Although $39 and $36.50 remains baseline intermediate to long-term support for Light Crude Oil ( in reference to June Contract Pricing ), the recent advance upwards has opened the door for a further short covering rally upwards to $62 to $65, and perhaps $74 to $76 levels if on a spike. Bullish window for buying on dips extends into at least June period -- this also applies to Brent Crude. Russian Stock Market ( $RSX ) looks bullish during this period. Oil and Gas Drilling stocks will likely continue higher on balance -- particularly a core position in stocks like $PBR.A would be sensible, which should also benefit from a continued bullish run in Brazilian Equities ( which I expect Brazilian equities should trend higher into the summer, and again later in the fall to close out the year much higher ). Among many other equities in Latin America, $ARCO and $KOF also have a strong bullish bias with sentiment conviction windows extending into foreseeable future. Other Commodity Markets showing very significant sentiment strength going forward are in the Agricultural complex -- Soybean, particularly Soybean Meal $SOYB, Rice, Corn $CORN, Cotton $BAL and Coffee ( $JO is ETF -- when above $18.02 and especially when trading above above $19.00, then $27 is interim target ), and even wheat to some degree. Equities that would benefit from a rise in these commodity markets should have a tail-wind. Silver and Gold stocks, which RunningAlpha.com has been bullish on for a few months now, still shows signs of strength on pullbacks. Sourced from premium sentiment conviction list on RunningAlpha dot com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by runningalpha
CT#11 still bearish long term - possible reversal aheadHere is my contribution to the nice ichimoku analysis done by Kumowizard and posted at www.tradingview.com The wave count on the weekly chart reinforces the idea that bears will keep control on the mid/long-term. At this point in time it is pretty safe to assume that intermediate-3 is consolidated retracing the full 2.618 ratio and suggesting this would be an extended 3. Wave 4 retraces nicely at 0.236 times wave 3 and the AWE oscillator indicates that a 3-5 divergence is possible. Wave 5, when 3 is extended, can develop between 1 times wave 1 (equality to wave 1), 0.618 times wave 1 or (less likely in this case) 1.618 times wave 1. On the daily chart, a couple of alternate count is possible; however, my preferred count would the one shown in orange with minor wave 3 under development. Like Kumowizard mention in his analysis, an upward (most likely brief) movement could be possible as part of lesser degree wave count (not shown on chart above) suggesting a corrective wave 4 would be under way. Takeaways: If the ongoing Intermediate 5 and Minor 3 materialize, it could lead us into a more consistent upward move/correction, but then again, alternate counts are possible therefore feel free to contribute.
CShort
by againstthegrain
1
Cotton - Heading down again.New setup in Cotton formed from a DP level that has a confluence with an ABC correction. This is one of the clearest Elliot wave patterns to play. The setup is giving a Risk Reward ratio at 2.5 at the quite conservative typical Wave 3 target. As an extra odds enhancer it was an VSA spike in the volume moving the price towards the entry.Target is in front of the swing low from 20 november. Last setup with this technical analyses was from a Decision Point that was at same level as a Elliot Wave 5 level and gave a very healty reward in R. In all my technical trading I like to stack my odds together at the entry levels with preferably more than one technical structure.
CShort
by MajorHunter
1
Cotton and BAL ETF Are Forming a Major Bottom"Smart Money" commercial hedgers in cotton futures have been basically net long since August of this year. In a hedgers market this rarely happens and so it should be viewed as of major significance for price fundamentals. The commercials typically are net short and use the futures to hedge their underlying tangible commodity position. So what this data is telling us is that the price of cotton futures is so low, that they are completely unhedged for the first time in years. Additionally on the push to new price lows in November there is a bullish divergence or non-confirmation in the large speculators net positions. This is a hallmark sign of the end of a trend based upon the CoT data. Additionally, the price of BAL is forming an ending diagonal or three push type pattern with declining intensity and bullish momentum divergence. The set-up is exceptional for a long position here. There are several indicators that could be used for entry. A cross of momentum/ROC above neutral is one. Also based upon the chart, a close back above the June 2012 low, would be evidence that the stop running may be complete, and price is free to move up. Wedges or diagonal patterns like this often lead to explosive moves, and it seems likely that price will rally above 46.00 on the first push up and take out any stops above the 9-12-14 high before a possible consolidation. However, that would be just the first push in a larger expected move of probable bull market proportions in coming months.
BLong
by StockMarketAlchemy
1