DXY: Dollar Index - Small counter-rally before further weaknessDXY Dollar Index Small counter-rally before further weakness
DXY has crashed into the near term target zone at 92.74 -
92.55 (target 92.64) and bounced. It looks like it will
consolidate by moving sideways to upwards, at best to test
the upper parallel before it falls away again. When 92.50
gives way it should fall a further 1.5% to 91.01. This move,
when we see it will propel gold and oil considerably higher still.
Counter
GE: Next buy points for counter-rallyGE Next Buy Points
We never got a chance for a long down by the lows, but we
did get the next one: the break above the small parallels
channelling the tiny corrective move yesterday and Monday.
It was a really good, painless/stress-free break too. So now,
after GE filled a small gap (left on chart) it's coming back to
support at 18.07 (tweaked by a couple of pips) and should
hold up there and bounce again (low risk entry point with
stops below 18.00 . If so, The next challenge should be at
18.46 (take profits) - we know that each of the last three
pathetic rally attempts have all been 100 pips...which is
exactly where 18.46 lies...then we only go long again once
we can see 18.50 has been broken on upside, looking for
19.36 where look to close (just under here) and some may
then wish to short with stops above. More as this develops.
Better than Bitcoin today too! Old V new. Today the old won.
There are some good trades here, between the lines - and so
much less stressful than Bitcoin. For a quiet, steady calm
trade GE wins hands down, no contest. Depends on your
profile.
Trading Countertrend with MultitimeframeanalysisHi guys,
today I want to show you how I trade countertrend, piecing multiple timeframes together. Keep in mind though, that generally speaking the sentence 'the trend is your friend' is always true.
However when it comes to specific timeframes one can make use of particular price movements. Such as in this case.
As you can see the EURUSD recently had a strong bullish run after forming a tripple bottom at support. The bullish run occured with little to no pullbacks on the monthly, this is the first sign for me that this pair is overextended and in need of a pullback. As most of you will know, price 'breathes' meaning it goes up and down in a waveform. Furthermore price has begun decelerating at resistance. Last month closed as a doji, showing uncertainty in the market, and this month might be closing as a hightest. Keep in mind that this is the monthly timeframe, price action patterns and signals take way longer to form, thus have mostly way more significance, than lets say the hour chart.
Going further on the weekly chart one can see how significant the resistance/support zone at which price is sitting has been in the past. 5 Rejections have occured, most of them pretty violent. Furthermore we can see that price has really moved with little to no pullbacks and is now chopping at the resistance zone. What does this mean for us as traders?
Mostly choppiness is just uncertainty in a market. To make money in this profession, we have to act as smart traders. Smart traders dont just trade when they see something closing in on a potential reversal zone, they build a portfolio for each trade and act upon their trading plan. So far what do we have?
- A overextended bullish run
- Price is sitting at resistance
- Price has formed a doji and might be forming a hightest on the monthly
- Price is also sitting in the 0.5 fib monthly level (treat fib levels like a zone)
- Choppiness on the weekly
For me personally this isn't enough to justify a trade, so lets zoom in on the daily chart.
I used the same levels and what do we see? Massive bearish MACD divergence and a h&s pattern that formed, with a slanting neckline. Now this doesnt mean that this pair will drop with 100% uncertainty, however it gives us more confluence to put into our tradingportfolio. So adding to the confluence mentioned above, we now have:
- A h&s pattern on the daily
- Daily bearish MACD divergence
To pinpoint wether price action is going to change, i also like to look at the 4h chart:
The 4hour chart confirms what we've seen on the daily. A h&s pattern with massive macd divergence. However it also tells us that the neckline of the h&s pattern still holds strong. The first indication of a potential trendchange would be a lower high at the 4h 50 EMA. However I wouldn't enter the trade until the neckline is broken and retested.
This is how I like to put together my trades. Ofcourse the are short trading opportunities which are not showing on the monthly or weekly, however it is always good to build a portfolio for each trade, look at it from different timeframes and justify your actions with confluence.
I will keep you updated and should price move in the right direction I will ofcourse also show my PT and stop placement.
Until then have a good one!
Refined Candle Counter, making easy money on BTC/USDA while ago I published a Candle Counter strategy that got quite some attention. Unfortunately it didn't work for all charts for some reason, so I decided to rewrite it. The result is, to me, astonishing. Judge for yourselves!
WTI: USOIL: Close to target so closing down shortsWTI: USOIL It's not quite reached the target yet by about 11 pips but if it touches that perfect level it will likely only be a spike, so am closing out here and thinking about a counter rally long for 100 pips - still overall bearish though so still looking to short again, but hopefully from higher up - or on a break below first target as per comment.
DXY: Dollar Index Update: First positive signal for days on DXYDXY: Doillar Index - double bottom at 96.8 - loss of downward momemtum - and trying to rally as per comment - all Dollar shorts should have been closed as per last comment by now...consider getting long $ for counter rally using DXY as guide and trigger.
AUDUSD:USD collapse come MondayAUDUSD: the US Dollar looks like it's going to collapse on Monday with a strong Euro and GBP the drivers. But it will sweep AUD up in the tailwinds, creating a counter-rally and dragging it back up to .7473 (if you buy sell half here) and more likely up to .7515 (sell other half here) where it becomes a fabulous short once more.
Trend-follow signals : NZDUSD (60min)If you are a trend following trader, find instruments and timeframes that satisfy your trending criteria and just follow the signals. But remember:
consolidation period can be brutal to a trend following strategy. Also, the longer the trend, the greater the chance for a reversal.
With that in mind, make sure you apply proper money management.