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Countertrend

AXP - FUNCHARTS - American Express MusingsNote: Funcharts are interesting charts I have found that offer a potentially unique perspective on a stock. Sometimes I’ll throw something out there that you might find controversial or wrong headed. If that’s the case your 2 cents worth is most welcome. So much for stock selection, American Express ( AXP ) was the first stock on my list, even above AAPL , and here I was thinking my list was in Alphabetical order, of which my offsider will be quick to point out that I should be using a Mac, not a PC... moving on, What is the best way to trade American Express based on the Technical numbers? There are two tests I run to determine the best way to trade. Firstly let's run the numbers on long term trends. I used the Supertrend Strategy for this. Adjust the inputs so we use a length of 50, thus smoothing out the ATR volatility and then use an ATR value of 6. In layman's terms this means we are running a 6 x ATR (chandelier) trailing stop. When price closes below the trailing the test generates results for entering short trades, and when price closes above the trailing stop the test generates results for long trades. Refer to the performance report below (and be aware there is a drop down menu on the strategy name to flick between the longer term trend following system and the shorter term mean reversion system). Also, make sure you view the Performance Summary, not Overview, we are specifically looking at the comparison between long and short trades. The first test - Taking Long Trades in line with the trend (when price is above the blue line) made money, 274% to be exact with profitable trades 38% of the time, meaning the win:loss ratio at 2.67 had to be favourable, which it was. But wait going short into a down trend (selling when price is below the red line) lost big! 322% to be exact, so historically you made (slightly) more money buying the big pull backs, as opposed to the breakouts but the drawdown was bigger as you get stuck in losing trades. However, what this is really saying is more money was made from Buy and Hold on AXP (historically), as opposed to breaking the market into an uptrend/downtrend regime. The second test - Let's now look at the short term. Again we will use the Supertrend Strategy, this time we will use 3 periods for the ATR length and 1.5 as the ATR factor, thus looking at very short term trends (sub 30 days). Further I have flipped the signals so it buys into a short term downtrend and sells into a short term uptrend. Use the Performance Summary below (not Overview) to take a look at Long Trades and Short trades, the strategy name is Supertrend STRATEGY (with STRATEGY in uppercase, not lowercase). Here buying the dips made money but not much winning 66% of trades with a profit factor of 1.18 (low) so buying short term dips was sub optimal. Looking at selling short term rallies however was very poor, you lost money. If you went short a rally (in the short term, when the close crossed above the supertrend trailing stop and exiting when it crossed below) the resulting loss was 147%. It therefore made more sense to enter long AXP in line with the short term trend, as opposed to entering early and buying the dip. Nonetheless, the result in the short term wasn't staggering either trading either long or short. Given the results were not great on a daily chart either way, I changed the chart to a weekly chart, after all, if you are following so far, you would have seen that AXP was (slightly) better as a countertrend strategy in the longer term. Running the same strategy as in the second test on a weekly graph the results improve significantly, going long on a dip made 172%, winning 82% of the time. That is a great setup, in fact pretty good as a stand along trade. But if you want to run stops and manage risk, rather than being stuck in losing trades for a long term, you could use the week chart as a setup, and then enter in line with the short term trend on a daily chart using the second tests strategy above... Overall the conclusion is you should use a mean reversion strategy (buy the dips) on American Express with a weekly chart, but use a shorter term trend following system to trade it on a daily chart . Where are we now? Well it just so happens that on a weekly time frame the stock is in buy territory according the the Supertrend STRATEGY and on a daily chart is pretty close to a short term uptrend... Did this make sense, let me know if you have any questions!
NYSE:AXPLong
by andrew.gibbs777
BHP - FUNCHARTS: Should we buy the dip?Note: Funcharts are interesting charts I have found that offer a potentially unique perspective on a stock. Sometimes I’ll throw something out there that you might find controversial or wrong headed. If that’s the case your 2 cents worth is most welcome. BHP has sure been belted, but should we catch a falling knife? - Let's take a basic look at BHP using a very short term strategy. It involves using a strategy called Supertrend Strategy with a 3 period ATR input and an ATR length of 1.5 times. - Firstly, I've flipped it upside down, so we get a buy signal when the trend changes to down and a sell signal when the trend changes to UP - Now, next step, Applying this strategy to BHP, take a look at the performance report for Long Trades and Short Trades using the Performance report TAB. Long Trades Buy the Dip , Short Trades Sell the Rally - Looking at Long Trades, 66% of the time it was profitable to Buy a short term dip on BHP and wait for the trend to change back to up, after which you exited the long position. The profit fact was 1.77. No stop was used in the analysis. - It was also marginally profitable to sell short term uptrends in BHP, meaning trend of less than 30 days didn't persist all that often. - What's the verdict? Buying short term weakness in BHP and selling short term strength has made money in the past. BHP is typically a very choppy stock. I hear what you're saying, you'd like to know if buying the current dip we are in will result in a profit? Based on this analysis BHP will usually stage some sort of rally in a downtrend and you would have make money 66% of the time historically. But looking at external analysis I'm not overly confident just yet. When I'd like to get in. Take a look at the blue histogram on the chart, if it goes below -10, I'd expect the odds to be pretty good for a rally of at least a few days, if not more. That means any further (significant) downside could be an opportunity for a countertrend mean reversion play. It'll be a day where there is blood on the streets for BHP.
ASX:BHPLong
by andrew.gibbs777
AMD Bounce play!?Hey all, If you look a little bit left on AMD's chart, you'd see that the mid-70s level is very strong support for AMD. Considering my bullish thesis on NVDA over the next month(though I think it will eventually go lower), I think playing a bounce through July is the right move to make. I just took a long position on AMD at $76/share, but it is very possible it goes a little lower before the said bounce. I WARN you guys though, that I'm only playing a bounce, and this is not an investment; I do think AMD will eventually go lower. I think a conservative estimate is that AMD will see the mid-high 80's again, though it is POSSIBLE AMD sees the high of the range it is trading in in the high 90s. Best of luck in your guys' trading!
NASDAQ:AMD
by MichaelEugen1
2
Possible AMZN short setupHey guys, I've been noticing that AMZN has been repeating the redistribution pattern it made leading up to its rally and subsequent dump in March of this year. Considering the fact that other market-moving names are doing similar things(AAPL, MSFT, NVDA), I am currently anticipating a rally up to the high 130's where I believe AMZN will top out and possibly head to the $80's. Mind you AMZN is still in a macro downtrend following a standard, year+ long Wyckoff distribution pattern and would be significantly overvalued at ~$138/share. In short, if it does rally up to fill the previous gap, there would be little to suggest that it would not reject and head for new lows. P.S. Do take what I am saying with a grain of salt as I believe we're at the end of a market cycle(midst of a crash) and are in the process of redistributing before another leg down.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by MichaelEugen1
2
How to analyze a counter-trend trade Do you know if you are a counter-trend trader and if it fits your trading style? We will need to analyze what a counter-trend trader is appropriate to answer these questions. Counter - to move against Trend - the latest direction in which something is moving Trade - to exchange If you put all of these terms together, a counter-trend trade is an exchange that goes against the direction. Let's take into account EURCAD. On the daily timeframe, the price in April was bearish. You can see the visual evidence based on the daily lower lows and lower highs that formed. On May 10, 2022, the buyers pushed the price up past the last lower high at 1.37599, representing the previous highest exchange rate price sellers sold, causing the price to decline again to new lows at 1.33903. This signals a reversal in price. Here is the true question: Would it be wise to become the buyer, and what would that look like? It is wise, but you'd have to understand which market cycle you'd be trading in. There are three market cycles. 1. Trend continuation (a.k.a impulse) 2. Retracement (a.k.a the correction or counter-trend or pullback) 3. Reversal When the price passed 1.37599 to make new highs at 1.37695, that signaled a reversal. It would have been wise to wait for a pullback before buying back up to ensure a better risk to reward. If this trade were taken above 1.33903 back up to the new highs, you would have had a decent risk to reward. But, what about now. Could the same results be produced? Let's go deeper. Does this qualify as a counter-trend trade? If you scale up to the higher timeframe, you will see the weekly timeframe is in a downtrend. It is making lower lows and lower highs. So any buy you enter on the lower timeframe at this point will be categorized as a counter-trend trade. Here is what this means: 1. Do not expect to hold counter-trend trades as long as you would a trend trade. Choosing which timeframes you enter counter-trend trades will help determine where you take profits, and your rules should play a big part in this. 2. Sometimes, you won't know if you're entering a counter-trend trade unless you become aware of which cycle you are trading. If it's not clear, try going up one timeframe. As far as this potential trade here goes, this would be considered a daily timeframe counter-trend trade because the weekly is in a strong downtrend. Something to remember: The best traders go with the trend. They may counter-trend trade occasionally, but their systems work best when they trend trade. When choosing if you are the counter-trend trader, make sure your timeframes align, and you have sufficient visual evidence you are trading with the trend before entering a counter-trend trade. Also, consider lowering your risk so you do not give back profits you may have just earned. Lastly, consider if counter-trend trading may not be your thing. It's ok if it's not. Not all great traders trade the same. It's ok to be in your lane. I pray this quick analysis and note were helpful. I'd love to converse with you if you have any questions or thoughts. So comment below, and let's chat there. -Shaquan
by ShaquanLopez
1
(Episode #556) GBPAUD - Bullish SharkThis is a very different Weekly Market Analysis, seldom do I share a Weekly chart setup but this is special and close to my heart, a Shark Pattern on GBPAUD Weekly Chart. The Bullish Shark Pattern is valid, if you have deep pockets, you can consider this trade, you are looking at more than 1,000pips of potential profit to only Target1. Yes! You read it right, more than 1000pips of profit potential. Personally, I will be watching this trade closely in the lower timeframe for a trading opportunity. This could be my trade of the year.
Long
by RaynLim
USDJPY-Weekly Market Analysis-Jun22,Wk2There is 2 trading opportunity, it depends on which camp you belong to. Counter-Trend Trader or Trend trader. The Counter-Trend Trader could wait for a Double-Top setup within the Supply Zone(red box) with the RSI Divergence setup. Trend Traders can wait for a Buying Opportunity at the Demand Zone(blue box). There is still some time before the US Interest Rate Decision, it is likely to be 1 of the most volatile event that's going to happen on 16Jun, 2 am (GMT+8)
Short
by RaynLim
GBPUSD-Weekly Market Analysis-Jun22,Wk2If you are looking to ride on the wave on the daily chart, either the late entry of the ABCD Pattern or engage the trade based on Potential Head and Shoulders setup, your chance is here. When the market opens wait for candlestick confirmation at 1.2369, the Bullish Deep Gartley Pattern. This is a counter-trend trade move and might inverse the Bearish Shark Pattern setup that you are in. It is important for those who have engaged the shark pattern to shift stop-loss to entry. You can now see that it is important to follow a coach who shares with you analysis before it happens and it is important to like that analysis that you are learning from, and that is because when you've related ideas, you will receive the notification and learn from it.
Long
by RaynLim
GBPUSD - Head and ShouldersIf you had followed my Weekly Market Analysis closely, you would be aware that last week I've said that the market is going to retrace from the high to 1.2475 and for those who had entered the counter-trend trade of the ABCD Pattern at the HOP level , 1.2186 not to panic. What you can do is shift stops to entry and observe if the level at 1.2475 holds on the daily chart. When the market opened, you can wait for the Bullish Deep Gartley Pattern for an entry opportunity to ride on the wave. Check out the link at the bottom.
Long
by RaynLim