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Countertrend

USDJPY-Weekly Market Analysis-Feb23,Wk1My analysis for this year Mid 2023 still remains Bullish for US Dollar. So it's pretty normal for me to look for buying opportunity on USDJPY. If you are looking for shorting opportunity, the Bearish Gartley Pattern will expire by 31Jan2023, 6pm (GMT +8). This is not guess work but advance trading techniques that serious traders should know. The first harmonic patterns that form up and gives me a confirmation signal, I will engage the trade. Obviously I'm incline to long the Bullish Bat Pattern.
Long
by RaynLim
2
Tactical Bounce for Tesla into Year End / New YearPrimary Chart: TSLA's Downtrend Shown by Parallel Channel, Anchored VWAP from Sept. 21, 2022, Key Support / Resistance Levels SUMMARY: TLSA remains in a steep downtrend at the primary degree of trend. The selling is not likely to be complete on longer time frames. A countertrend bounce may take TSLA's price up to the following targets: $155-158 (conservative) to $163-$166 (aggressive). Countertrend bounces can fail at any time, so the odds of this working out well are perhaps lower than the odds of a downward move from key resistance levels that is aligned with the longer-term trend. TSLA remains within a broader downtrend that has intensified over the past few months. TSLA had held up better than many other tech names and high growth names in 1H 2022. TSLA's drawdown in the first half of the year was about -50% while many tech / high growth stocks declined -70% to -90%. For comparative examples, PLTR has fallen -86.22% from its all time high, SQ has fallen -82% from its all time high, BYND has fallen -95.1% from its all-time high, and UPST has fallen -96.45% from its all-time high. TSLA so far has fallen about -65.8% from its all-time high. For many of these high-growth and technology names, including TSLA, the selling doesn't look complete. Just as corrective pullbacks occur in an uptrend, corrective bounces occur in downtrends. TSLA has reached the lower edge of its parallel channel and looks ripe for a countertrend rally. Add bullish year-end seasonality into the mix, and TSA may see chop at a minimum, or a modest rally. The term "modest" here means small relative to its sharp downtrend since mid-September 2022 and its all-time high of $414.50. In percentage terms, the corrective rally may be considered sharp from the perspective of any shorts that may have had the misfortune of entering their positions at the lower edge of the channel. The Primary Chart shows the steepness of the downtrend since mid-September 2022, although the stock has been in a downward correction since its ATH in November 2021. The VWAP fro mid-September 2022 also shows the ferocity of the selling given how its slope falls rapidly over the past 3 months, hovering not far above the downtrend line. Bears have been pleased with this progress. But even bears must be cautious this year regardless of how weak the stock may be. The conservative target is $155-$158. The aggressive target is $163-166. These levels are derived from both Fibonacci analysis and resistance levels from key price points shown on the Primary Chart. Some additional charts supporting this thesis appear below: Supplementary Chart A Supplementary Chart B Supplementary Chart C Supplementary Chart D For the longer-term perspective, please see the following post dated November 8, 2022: ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
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NASDAQ:TSLA
by SquishTrade
53
Potential swing trade short on the DAX?Like many indices, the DAX has enjoyed a strong start to the year after a dismal ‘Santa’s rally’. But after a 9% rally this month and early signs of a potential top, perhaps it is time for the DAX to pull back from its highs. If we look at the daily chart, the market formed a small top and daily close below 15,000. Whilst prices are back above the milestone level, upside volatility is lacking and there are now the early signs of a lower high with yesterday’s bearish outside day. Perhaps we have seen the end of a wave b, which is part of a 3-wave countertrend move. • Futures markets point to a soft open for the cash market today • The bias is bearish below 15,200 / yesterday’s high • A 100% projection / wave equality is around 14,800 and 20-day EMA, making it a viable target for bears • A break below 14,800 brings 14,700 / December high into focus
XETR:DAXShort
by CityIndex
Trading Counter Trend GuideAnytime we are taking a trade we're trying to build a case to why it's a good trade. Here the counter trend trader would be thinking: -Price inside 4hr DBR demand zone -Price overextended ridding the bottom of the BB for 10x candles in a row -Stochastic RSI is oversold -Imbalance, correction, imbalance, with potential correction time. -Average Imbalance wave to downside = 4.2% -The average Correction is 3.2% Would I buy straight up? no, but I'm sure some traders might. instead of confirmation IMO is the better play + considering smaller risk + quicker trade management + quicker TP as the trade is aggressive.
CEducation
by MoneyballAustin
OMG! Did I miss a trade?OMG! I was doing a qualifying call, and I might have missed the trade! And this is why I don't usually trade off the 15-minutes chart. From my experience, this trade is gone, but a retest on 128.98 happens; it is a great second-chance entry. 2 Economic Data to take note On 18Jan23(GMT+8) Tentative(usually before 3pm) JPY - BOJ Outlook Report JPY - Monetary Policy Statement JPY - BOJ Press Conference 9.30pm(GMT+8) US Core Retail Sales US PPI In any case, by the time the economic data is released, you should have achieved Target1 Profits.
Short
by RaynLim