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Covid-2019

Stimulus rally hits $2,490 target, more downside coming? Last night ~1 am the Senate passed the ]Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act or the CARES Act and this boosed overnight tading to my $2,490 retrace target. Since then it is down ~1.1% and with as swath of bad news coming (US unemployment claims data, consumer confidence, and ISM PMI's) and increased lockdowns across the nation I beleive that S&P will continue on its trajectory down. See the note from Richard Curtin the director of the survey of consumers at the University of Michigan where he states "The first step is to recognize the immense threat that the coronavirus has for the welfare of the nation. Comparison to prior recessions, even the Great Recession, fail to correctly account for the loss of life let alone the very high eventual economic costs." I continue to stand by my privous note that $2T won't be enough. It will most likely cost more than WWII, the most expensive war in history, at $4T (today's dollars). Price target is $2,175 (-9.9%) to get back to recent lows.... This will be updated as more information is available. Stay Safe... just_a_guy Disclaimer: The opinions and ideas presented by just_a_guy are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to represent trading or investment advice. From linked post published yesterday The SPX was up 9.38% on 3/24 on the expectation that Senate will pass ~$2T stimulus bill soon. Any market should rise when approximalty 10% of the countries GDP will be infused into the economy. Unfortunately, my current thesis suggests that ~$2T won't be enough, and it may take multiples of this to slow the economic collapse. Technically, there are two retracement points that look good for an entry to the next leg down. The first at $2,490 (+1.7%) and the second at $2,565 (+4.8%). I believe this techical set up with the upcoming fundamentals will play out very well to the downside. Caution: if SPX rises above $2,616 then I would call this opportunity invalid. My expectation is that one or both of the technical points will be completed before April 3rd. To be very specific I am currnetly thinking they will reach one or both of the targets before the market opens on the 26th of March which is when the US unemployment claims data comes out, which I believe will be a startling number, one for the ages (or the following week). On April 1st we will see the ISM manufacutring index which should print one of the lowest of all time, maybe ever... until April reports. This will present a stark relization to the market and the country that COVID-19 is much more of a problem then the Gov't is currently stating. I don't believe Trump's quote from today's Fox interview where he stated "I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by Easter,". I believe it will be quite the opposite. If I am wrong and the US isn't shut down like China or Italy by April 12th then GOD help us as it will only get worse. Stay Safe... just_a_guy Disclaimer: The opinions and ideas presented by just_a_guy are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to represent trading or investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by just_a_guy
2
DJI surge and crashI expect the dji to see a surge due to the CARES act (stimulus bill) passing the senate and going up for vote in the house. Speculators will buy in hopes it will pass all the way through and once it does, there will be a hype in the news and the stock market. It will be short lived though as the stimulus bill is merely keeping companies afloat rather than increasing earnings and whatnot. Investors will quickly come to realize that their shares are scarily overpriced and dump them as cases of coronavirus grow. A lower low will be established and I can only hope a medical breakthrough solidifies a floor. No news of a treatment/cure is expected until end of april. So until then, expect a crash. Make sure you scoop up shares while we are in this state though. Everyone will be scared and shouting, "SELL SELL SELL, THE SKY IS FALLING" but that's when the smart investors buy. Best of luck
TVC:DJI
by AndrewFogel
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS TO THE MOON!!!In about an hour 7:30 CST we are going to see something we have never seen before.... With the COVID-19 starting to take significant hold of the U.S. economy I believe this week we will see a massive rise in unemployment insurance claims that will translate to massive unemployment. My current estimates are anywhere from four to eight million if you use Canada as a proxy. This is 5 to 10 times the largest known weekly claims data (700K) and is a direct result of the precautions made for COVID-19. I don't believe this number is anywhere close to being "priced in" and will take the market. Why? As of the February's Employment Situation Report the total unemployment rate was 3.5% with 5.787M people unemployed and 158.759M employed for a total civilian labor force of 164.546M. If you input my most conservate estimate of 4M newly unemployed people, developed off Canada's already published data, that would shift unemployed people to 9.787M. Assuming there isn't a large shift in the civillian labor force, that would change the unemployement rate from ~3.5% to ~5.9% in effectively one week. If that trend continues, as it usually does, we would see unemployement definantely surpassing the 2009 GFC of 10% and we could reach or even surpass the peak from the Great Depression of 24.9%. I know that there has been a few articles on this printed over the past couple of weeks but most of my "non trading" friends weren't even thinking about the level of unemployment COVID-19 will cause. Also when this news hits new outlets it will make every working american pause, take notice, and become fearful that they too may lose their job. I think this because it is how I feel and it is a real possibility I lose my job like many other hard working people. UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS Estimates for 3/26 4-8 million Last week 3/19 281,000 Report Link Stay safe.... just_a_guy Disclaimer: The opinions and ideas presented by just_a_guy are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to represent trading or investment advice.
FRED:ICSALong
by just_a_guy
2
Entry level for S&P500 ($1705-$2350)Many countries are releasing stimulus right now increasing Singapore. I think it will help boost the economy slightly. However, based on Fib retracement, a good entry level for S&P500 ($1705-$2350). A Fibonacci retracement is a term used in technical analysis that refers to areas of support or resistance. Fibonacci retracement levels use horizontal lines to indicate where possible support and resistance levels are. Each level is associated with a percentage. 50% to 61.8% are usually good indicators for a good entry point whenever there's a retracement downwards after a bullish run.
TVC:SPX
by Trader_hao
NIO- Long-term bargain price is within the grasp. Don't miss it!Please click like and follow me if enjoy my posts! :) Due to the whole market meltdown, NIO has retraced back to Fib 0.786 lvl early this week. However, it has since then rebounded strongly and is currently fighting the resistance lvl. Barring the continuing worsened market condition, I believe NIO's distribution cycle is nearly over. The current bargain price is hard to pass up despite the unfavorable external environment. The prudent approach would be to determine the total amount you want to put in, then use the pyramid method to scale in slowly as the price moves down lower. I would grab my cheap shares of NIO if the price falls inside the buy zone and set the tight stop loss if the price falls below the buy zone. *Dow, Nasdaq100, S&P500 and S&P400 are all still below SMA 200. SPX 50SMA/200SMA crossover seems imminent. *Futures market seems indecisive. Dow and S&P500 are up while Nasdaq is down. *GDP final and initial claim filing figures will come out tomorrow. Both reports may have the negative impact on the stock market tomorrow. *Manufacturing related economic indictors may have the impact on NIO so it is worth to pay attention to them as they come out. *COVID-19 growth factor slows down for the first time since Mar.11. Yesterday's growth factor was 0.86 (Below one means the exponential growth slows down) DYOR! Not an investment advice.
NYSE:NIOLong
by Libratus
1
Short US marketUS cases climbed by 13,000 to 68,000 cases (stats from worldometer site) already and it seems like the rally 2 days ago just took a small turn downwards. I still think it will continue heading downwards till either vaccine is released or when the numbers are better controlled. Because looking at the growth rate, it doesn't look like its slowing down and many countries have started partial shutdowns and I think the impact on their economy will be huge but the real effect on the economy can only be seen at a later stage.
CShort
by Trader_hao
The COVID virus may come back in 3 waves (based on Spanish flu)Please note I am using the TradingView Confirmed TOTAL COVID data line and then projecting how I think COVID will progress using the Spanish Flu as precedence - I am also assuming there will be no vaccine at least till next summer: I have tried to keep this analysis/projection simple using two estimates: 1) Looking at how the Spanish flu happened in 3 waves and the time frame in which that happened; 2) Looking at the direction of the exponential increase in confirmed cases globally.
C
by arigolden
4
Confirmed Corona Recovery : Deaths ratios.Comparing COVID-19 CONFIRMED, DEATHS, RECOVERED Ratios per Country and time of infection, and recovery rates vs time exposed, known preventive actions to maybe find other factors that might explain some of the more rapid recovery rates or how to prevent a high death count.. Iran (IR) has a VERY high RECOVERY ratio. Confirmations similar to others. While death count is > France not below average? Germany (DE) Has a much lower death count compared to France (FR) other stats are similar, so what happened here?
C
by KrakendeKnaken
2
MSFT, 25.3.2020Hi, traders. My name is Lukas and I am a beginner in trading, respectively, I only trade 6 months. But that means I have to do the necessary analyzes without it I can't trade. I want to show you how I work on myself and document my beginnings. I use Vix and my strategy is built on to return to average. I highlight the important support levels and resistances that flow from the volume profile, all drawn on graph. These zones determine the ability to respond in some way to the market from 1 to 3, with 1 being the largest. Short description of analysis: After yesterday's growth today I expect a slight consolidation, the market will gain energy with the help of the FED, and so will have room to rise until the next resistance. This happens after Microsoft teamed up with the WHO to introduce a hackathon about COVID-19. Of course, my analysis does not serve like market forecasts and I am not responsible for your trades if you use my analysis for your own trades. AND Chceck my new twitter :)
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by Lucas_Sochulak