COPPER Commodity or Junior Miner trade LONGCopper prices rise when the economy is thought to be growing and needing more electrical
infrastructure while they fall when bearish indicators might project a recession. I am
at the aluminum and finished steel subsectors as well. FCX is under consideration but as a
large cap it does not have the volatility of the junior miners. In the meanwhile COPJ, CPER and
COPX look like they are worth considering given the trend up since mid-February. The chosen
strength and trend indicators confirm the trend. This is a long trade and sector rotation play for
those to consider that are tired of tech stocks and earnings plays.
CPER
WRN- A copper mining Penny Stock WATCH for LONGWRN is on 15 minute chart. The ideas is described on the chart in textboses with a head
and shoulder pattern identified as well as a Fibonacci retracement leel and dual anchored
VWAP to identify areas of high liquidity and trading volume. The trend indicator adds support
to waiting for a best entry as marked on the chart. Once entered, my expectation is for a
10-15 % move in a single week long swing trade.
COPPER Commodity Trade LONGCopper prices rise when the economy is thought to be growing and needing more electrical
infrastructure while they fall when bearish indicators might project a recession. With that in
in on the 15-minute chart I missed a trade in the junior copper miner ETF this week. I have
now placed COPJ on my watch list and will not miss it again when it falls to support and
retraces. I am looking at the aluminum and finished steel subsectors as well. FCX is
under a consideration but as a large cap it does not have the volatility of the junior miners.
Copper ~ Help Me Obi-China, You're My Only Hope (2H)CAPITALCOM:COPPER chart mapping/analysis.
Copper - off its October lows, yet still contending with global macro headwinds & China's difficulty in shaking off its deflationary economic funk..
Trading scenarios into EOY:
Prelim trading range = ~3.93 - ~3.73.
Under bearish pressure from 38.2% Fib rejections.
Bullish reaction to China/macro economic news = bounce off lower range of parallel channel (green) + 200SMA confluence support / break above 38.2% Fib / break above ~3.93 upper trading range.
Bullish extension target(s) = 50% Fib / upper range of parallel channel (green) confluence zone.
Bearish reaction to China/macro economic news = break below ~3.73 lower trading range / lower range of parallel channel (green) / break underneath 200SMA, becoming dynamic resistance.
Bearish extension target(s) = 23.6% Fib / lower range of descending parallel channel (light blue).
Big divergence between $SPX & $CPERThis probably is not a good sign for the SP:SPX , as these assets are highly correlated (0.88) and normally AMEX:CPER leads the business cycle.
Also, the TVC:VIX is back above 20 and NASDAQ:TLT hasn't resume its downtrend.
Even the dollar AMEX:UUP is showing strength again.
I'm 87% in cash and also have tighten all my stops.
Let's wait and see if the SP:SPX holds or breaks down.
CPER see brrrrLooking at the weekly chart with 200MA for CPER. I'm a fan of owning physical metals but CPER is a nice way for people to dabble in copper without actually getting bullion.
The 200MA is now coinciding with the lower boll band. On a weekly chart I'd expect this to serve as rock solid support. I've mapped out the trajectory of the 200MA if it continues to uptrend like it has, and its represented as the bottom line of the white parallel channel. Price action around the green rectangle should present a great entrance opportunity, with a target to exit at the top of the parallel channel.
Fundamentally I'm quite bullish on copper. It drives the green energy revolution and inventories are tapped out worldwide. Disputes between miners and governments are taking place and those never end quickly. Good luck out there, NFA.
Will silver follow copper? $SLVMetals have been performing pretty good, AMEX:DBB is up +21% in the last 6 months and above its 200-day MA
The copper ETF, AMEX:CPER is up +12% in the last month and breaking out from resistance.
Could AMEX:SLV follow up? and after silver could AMEX:IAU ?
I'll wait for the breakout above $22.50 with target at $26.
CPER: United States Copper ETFBecause of copper's widespread applications in most sectors of the economy — from homes and factories to electronics and power generation and transmission — demand for copper is often viewed as a reliable leading indicator of economic health.
CPER ETF seeks the daily changes in percentage terms of its shares’ per share net asset value (“NAV”) to reflect the daily changes in percentage terms of the SummerHaven Copper Index Total ReturnSM (the “SCI”), less CPER’s expenses.
M timeframe BEAR
W timeframe BULL
FIB retracement 61.8 acts as support BULL
INVESTORS too negative about global growth BEAR
GROWTH continues with but with slower rate BULL
RSI W oversold with divergence BULL
MACD divergence with bears loosing momentum BULL
DXY index too appreciated expecting dollar weakness which would be good for commodities BULL
RRR favorable BULL
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