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EURUSD LONGPrice swept below support around 1.1473, grabbing liquidity and quickly bouncing back — this is a classic Wyckoff spring setup. 📌 Key Levels Entry: Around 1.1500 Stop Loss: Below 1.1424 (spring low) Target 1: 1.1567 (range high) Target 2: 1.1614 (measured move) 🔍 Why I like this setup: Fake breakdown (spring) and quick recovery Buyers showed up right after the sweep Expecting price to return to the top of the range and possibly break higher . This a trade we hold 💡 A spring is where smart money steps in after trapping sellers — I'm following them. “I always say that you could publish my rules in the newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline.”
Long
by theeOperator90
Massive GBP/USD Reversal Ahead? Head & Shoulders FormationGBP/USD is at a critical technical juncture following a sharp bullish impulse that pushed the pair above the 1.34 handle, printing a strong weekly bullish engulfing candle and breaking out of a multi-week consolidation zone. This move unfolded in a macro context where the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing clear signs of weakness, with Non-Commercial net long positions dropping drastically—from around 20,000 to less than 5,000 contracts. This shift points to a fading speculative appetite for the dollar, historically a leading indicator of upcoming corrective phases or broader declines in the DXY. On the flip side, the Commitments of Traders (COT) report on the British Pound reveals that Non-Commercials (typically hedge funds and asset managers) remain net long on GBP, with a slight increase week-over-week. However, Commercials (generally institutions and hedgers) have aggressively built up a significant net short position—levels that in the past preceded major reversals on the pair. This divergence between speculators and institutional hedgers suggests short-term bullish potential, but with rising risk of exhaustion near current resistance levels. Adding fuel to this outlook is the retail sentiment: approximately 63% of retail traders are currently short GBP/USD, with an average entry price around 1.3021. This kind of retail crowd positioning, typically inefficient from a historical perspective, adds contrarian support for further upside, as long as price holds above the 1.3340 structure. From a seasonality perspective, June tends to be a mildly bullish-to-sideways month for GBP/USD, especially when looking at the 10- and 15-year seasonal averages. While the seasonal bias is not particularly strong, there’s also no statistical downward pressure this time of year, leaving room for technically-driven moves influenced by liquidity and sentiment rather than macro patterns alone. On the technical front, the daily chart shows a steep rally capped by a large green candle on Monday, breaking cleanly through the 1.34 resistance zone. The price is now hovering inside a key supply area between 1.3499 and 1.3550—a historically reactive zone that has triggered major rejections in previous months. How price reacts here will likely shape the next major swing. A confirmed breakout and consolidation above 1.3550 would open the door for an extension toward 1.37–1.3750. Conversely, a sharp rejection followed by a break below 1.3412—and especially under 1.3340—would set the stage for a deeper correction toward 1.3170. The RSI is currently showing early signs of momentum loss, although no strong bearish divergence has emerged yet. This implies that the pair could still fuel another push higher before running out of steam—possibly forming the right shoulder of a head & shoulders pattern if the rejection scenario plays out.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
11
US Unemployment Rising: How Is This NOT a Recession?The U.S. unemployment numbers are steadily climbing, as indicated by recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Typically, significant rises in unemployment correlate directly with recessions, which are shaded gray in historical data charts. Currently, unemployment has reached over 7 million, significantly higher than recent lows. Historically, every similar increase has coincided with or preceded an official recession declaration. Yet, mainstream economic narratives have avoided labeling this a recession. What does this data tell us, and is the market accurately pricing in the risk? Are we already in a recession, or is this time different? Share your thoughts below. Let's discuss the disconnect between the unemployment reality and official recession narratives.
FRED:UNEMPLOY
by Teqnkka
Gold may rise due to CPI and falling dollarMay CPI in the US rose by 2.4% - just below the forecast of 2.5%. This reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut despite continued pressure from tariffs. The dollar is weakening, gold may gain in this situation Gold is forming an upward structure. The fundamental background is changing and moving to the side of gold. Before the rise there may be a liquidity grab from below Price is in consolidation. If trading shifts to the upper half of the current range, then a breakout and continued growth can be considered in this case
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AndeWave
15
EUR/USD tests three-year ceiling Aside from a brief spike in April, EUR/USD has remained below 1.1500 for over three years. Sellers again have had to defend the zone following the weaker-than-expected US CPI release. The main resistance zone potentially spans all the way up to 1.1573 (the April high). Some indicators suggest potential room for further upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not yet reached overbought territory, and the Daily Moving Average is positively sloped. A break below the 4-hour Moving Average could trigger more selling pressure and a potential correction.
by BlackBull_Markets
$USIRYY -U.S CPI Below Expectations (May/2025)ECONOMICS:USIRYY 2.4% (May/2025) source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the US increased for the first time in four months to 2.4% in May from 2.3% in April, though it came in below the expected 2.5%. Prices rose slightly more for food, used cars and new vehicles but shelter cost slowed and gasoline prices continued to decline. Meanwhile, the annual core inflation rate held steady at 2.8%. On a monthly basis, both headline and core CPI increased by 0.1%, falling short of market expectations.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Just got the May US CPIs. PPIs next...Here is the reaction in the US instruments to the numbers. Let's dig in. TVC:DXY TVC:DJI MARKETSCOM:US500 MARKETSCOM:US100 Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
by Marketscom
GOLD | CPI Data in Focus – Key Levels at 3347 and 3318GOLD | OVERVIEW Gold remains under pressure due to ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions, with additional focus on the upcoming U.S. CPI data, which is expected to have a strong market impact. Forecast CPI: 2.5% Previous CPI: 2.3% Current Scenario: If the CPI comes in above 2.5%, it would signal stronger inflation, reducing the likelihood of rate cuts. This would pressure gold lower, continuing the downtrend toward 3318, then 3303, and possibly 3292. Alternative Scenario: If CPI is below expectations, it would suggest easing inflation and open the door for rate cuts—supportive for gold. In that case, a break above 3347 could lead to 3366, and then 3375. Support Levels: 3318, 3303, 3292 Resistance Levels: 3347, 3366, 3375
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SroshMayi
Bitcoin: Firm supports, play the breakout or dip ahead of CPI__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Structurally bullish momentum across all timeframes. No bearish divergence or signs of capitulation detected. Major supports: 108,291.5; 106,743.9. Key resistances: 109,997.81; 111,949. Normal volume, robust buying dynamics without climax, no excess in the flows. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : “ Strong Buy ” signal from 1D to 1H; only M15 is neutral (micro-consolidation). No exhaustion or massive profit-taking behaviour. ISPD DIV neutral across all timeframes. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall bias: Structurally bullish, strong momentum, no imminent major reversal. Possible consolidation ahead of US CPI. Risk zones: 109.9k–111.9k (historic resistance), key macro event June 11 (CPI). Catalysts: US inflation figures (CPI), Fed speeches, low implied BTC option volatility. Action plan: Buy on retracement towards 108.2k/106.7k, or confirmed breakout >111.9k; technical stops below 108.2k & 106.7k; trim risk before CPI if actively managing. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D: Approaching historic resistance, “very strong” trend, no weakness detected. 12H/6H/4H: Strong buying pressure, full indicator alignment, close to a break/rejection at 110–111k. 2H/1H: Persistent intraday momentum, no bearish alert, moderate to dynamic volumes (notably 2H). 30min: Healthy trend, buying pressure, no sign of topping out. Squeeze scenario possible if broken. 15min: Neutral phase, micro-consolidation with supported volume, swift resumption possible post-break resolution. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Strong Buy on all timeframes except 15min (neutral/short pause). ISPD DIV: Neutral everywhere, environment supports bullish trend continuation. Volumes: Normal to moderate, no distribution alert or bull trap detected. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Recap __________________________________________________________________________________ Primary trend: Structurally bullish, strong multi-timeframe confluence. Key signal: Accumulation on support, breakout/extension to be considered only on significant volume. Opportunity: Entry on technical pullback (108.2k/106.7k) or confirmed breakout (>111.9k), swing target 115.4k Critical risks: US CPI release, extended resistance, hidden volatility Risk management: Stop below 108.2k/106.7k, reduce cash risk ahead of macro events as needed. Summary: As long as 108.2k-106.7k support holds, pullbacks are buying opportunities. Strong conviction for upside if 111.9k is broken. Anticipate volatility around US CPI. __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
EURUSD shortThe Setup: 1. A-B: Strong impulsive drop on increasing volume → clear evidence of real selling pressure. 2. B-C: Pullback forms on decreasing volume → classic corrective behavior, not buyer aggression. 3. C-D: Entry just below point C as new volume confirms sellers stepping back in. 4. Targeting >3R with stop tucked above C — logical structure, clean invalidation. ✅ Volume confirms the trend ✅ Structure is tight, no randomness ✅ Timing aligns with volatility spike (news at the bottom?) ✅ Clear bearish continuation pattern what do you think of this a head of cpi?
Short
by theeOperator90
$CNIRYY -China CPI (May/2025)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY May/2025 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China's consumer prices dropped by 0.1% yoy in May 2025, matching the declines seen in the previous two months and slightly outperforming expectations of a 0.2% decrease. This was the fourth straight month of consumer deflation, highlighting challenges from ongoing trade risks with the US, sluggish domestic demand, and concerns over job stability. Non-food prices were flat for the second month in a row, as increases in housing (0.1% vs 0.1% in April), clothing (1.5% vs. 1.3%), healthcare (0.3% vs 0.2%), and education (0.9% vs 0.7%) were offset by a sharper drop in transport (-4.3% vs -3.9%). On the food side, prices fell at a steeper rate (-0.4% vs -0.2%), down for the fourth month. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose 0.6%, marking the highest reading since January and following a 0.5% gain in the prior two months. On a monthly basis, the CPI declined by 0.2% in May, reversing a 0.1% gain in April and indicating the third monthly drop so far this year.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Week 23 Bullish speed delivery Bias on Nasdaq.Looking for speed to show up next week and expand higher to reach out 22, 672.00 breaching trough the D SIBI after a potential Mon-Tue LOW. I don't really wants to see price gyration around the D +OB on Monday and Tuesday even if pre-CPI. Better it would be to see a opening gap higher and a retrace into the gap to form the Low of the week Mon-Tue and then rally. + We're 2 weeks a head of contract change. Acceleration towards liquidity before the change in contract is usual behavior
CME_MINI:NQM2025Long
by AlessandroGiust
$EUIRYY - Europe CPI below 2% Target (May/2025)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY 1.9% May/2025 source: EUROSTAT - Eurozone CPI eased to 1.9% year-on-year in May 2025, down from 2.2% in April and below market expectations of 2.0%. This marks the first time inflation has fallen below the European Central Bank’s 2.0% target since September 2024, reinforcing expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut later this week and raising the possibility of additional cuts. A key driver of the deceleration was a sharp slowdown in services inflation, which dropped to 3.2% from 4.0% in April, its lowest level since March 2022. Energy prices continued to decline, falling by 3.6% year-on-year, while inflation for non-energy industrial goods held steady at 0.6%. In contrast, prices for food, alcohol, and tobacco accelerated, rising 3.3% compared with 3.0% the previous month. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, slipped to 2.3%, the lowest reading since January 2022. source: EUROSTAT
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$USPCEPIMC -U.S Core PCE (April/2025)ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC April/2025 source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -The core PCE price index in the US, which excludes volatile and energy prices and is Federal Reserve's chosen gauge of underlying inflation in the US economy, went up 0.1% from the previous month in April of 2025. The result was in line with market expectations. From the previous year, the index rose by 2.5% to slow from the 2.7% jump from March, the softest increase since March of 2021.
ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC
by Mr_J__fx
$JPIRYY -Japan's CPI (April/2025)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 3.6% April/2025 source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - Japan's annual inflation rate stood at 3.6% in April 2025, unchanged from March while remaining at its lowest print since December. Food prices rose the least in four months (6.5% vs 7.4% in March) even as rice costs jumped 94.8% y-o-y, hitting a new record for the 7th straight month due to poor harvests and rising demand from record tourist numbers. Price growth also eased for clothing (2.7% vs 3.0%) and household items (4.1% vs 4.5%). Cost of education fell much steeper (-5.6% vs -1.2%). In contrast, inflation was stable for transport (at 2.7%) while accelerating for housing (1.0% vs 0.8%), healthcare (2.2% vs 2.0%), recreation (2.7% vs 2.0%), communications (1.1% vs 1.0%), and miscellaneous items (1.3% vs 1.1%). Prices of electricity (13.5% vs 8.7% ) and gas (4.4% vs 2.4%) rose the most in three months, as the impact of government subsidies faded. Core inflation climbed to an over 2-year high of 3.5% from 3.2% in March. Monthly, the CPI rose 0.1%, easing from a 0.3% gain in March.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Slower Inflation Growth, Takes DXY lower.Overnight, the DXY traded lower, driven by 2 main factors. 1) The release of lower-than-expected CPI data at 2.3% 2) Rejection of the long-term bearish trendline and the area of confluence formed by the 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels from the longer term. If the DXY breaks below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the shorter term, we could expect to see further downside, toward the target level of 100. This round-number level would align with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the short-term bullish trendline.
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
$USIRYY - U.S Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Slows (April/2025)ECONOMICS:USIRYY April/2025 source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the US eased to 2.3% in April, the lowest since February 2021, from 2.4% in March and below forecasts of 2.4%. Prices of gasoline fell at a faster pace and inflation also slowed for food and transportation. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.2%, rebounding from a 0.1% fall in March but below forecasts of 0.3%. Meanwhile, annual core inflation rate steadied at 2.8% as expected, holding at 2021-lows.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Nasdaq Tests Key 20,900 ResistanceAs shown in chart above, price action is hovering near the neckline of a well-defined double top pattern, formed between December 2024 and February 2025, similarly across the Dow and SPX500 charts. This reinforces a key resistance zone that could either validate a more sustainable bullish outlook into 2025 — or trigger another correction if rejected. Nasdaq Upside Scenario: A confirmed hold above 20,900 may extend gains toward 21,500, and 22,200. Downside Scenario: A pullback below 20900 and 20,500 could find support at 20,200, 19,600, and 19,170, respectively. Markets are currently holding on trade optimism, yet key economic reports are likely to test the narrative Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by FOREXcom