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CPI

-United States PCE (October/2024)$USCPCEPEPIMM 0.3% (October/2024) source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -The US core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge to measure underlying inflation, rose by 0.3% from the previous month in September of 2024, the highest gain in five months, following an upwardly revised 0.2% increase in August, matching market forecasts. Service prices rose by 0.3%, while goods prices decreased 0.1%. Year-on-Year, core PCE prices rose 2.7%, the same as in August, but above forecasts of 2.6%. source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIMM
by Mr_J__fx
$EUIRYY -Europe's Inflation Rate (October/2024)ECONOMICS:EUINTR 2% (October/2024) +0.3% source: EUROSTAT -Annual inflation in the Euro Area accelerated to 2% in October 2024, up from 1.7% in September which was the lowest level since April 2021, and slightly above forecasts of 1.9%, according to preliminary estimates. This year-end increase was largely expected due to base effects, as last year’s sharp declines in energy prices are no longer factored into annual rates. Inflation has now reached the European Central Bank’s target. In October, energy cost fell at a slower pace (-4.6% vs -6.1%) and prices rose faster for food, alcohol and tobacco (2.9% vs 2.4%) and non-energy industrial goods (0.5% vs 0.4%). On the other hand, services inflation steadied at 3.9%. Meanwhile, annual core inflation rate which excludes prices for energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was unchanged at 2.7%, the lowest since February 2022 but above forecasts of 2.6%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%, following a 0.1% fall in September.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
German 10 year bund (yield chart) giant HS patternGerman 10 year bund keeps scaling. Price action is reflected on the charts. On the long term, seems like the german 10 year bund is building a huge Head and Shoulders pattern. That would be consistent with rates going down in the eurozone. But… if the German bund should spike over 2.50%, that would probably mean that euro rate cuts will be on hold for longer than expected. IMO, it’s all about geopolitics, as it’s also related to oil/natural gas supply from the east, commercial war with the USA, China and India, etc. all of them are inflationary and would also be pushing government spending to the upside on military and defense systems, detracting investment capacity from the private sectors… All to be seen in coming weeks… any insights you would like to share about the topic, please let me know!
TVC:EU10Y
by j_arrieta
The euro lost its upward momentum due to recession fears Worries about a potential recession in the eurozone, coupled with the ECB's decision to implement further rate cuts, are negatively impacting the sentiment toward the euro. Spain's September CPI (YoY) dropped to 1.5%, marking the lowest since April 2021, while France's CPI (YoY) came in at 1.1%, falling short of the market consensus of 1.2%. Moreover, Germany's ZEW Current Conditions in October plummeted to -86.9, reaching the lowest since May 2020, intensifying concerns about the Eurozone economy. EURUSD briefly breached the descending channel’s upper bound but failed to hold the upward momentum, falling to 1.0810. If EURUSD maintains a downtrend within the channel, the price may fall further to 1.0670. Conversely, if EURUSD breaches the channel’s upper bound again and rises above EMA21, the price could advance toward 1.0940.
by inkicho_exness
$JPIRYY -Japan's CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 2.5% (September/2024) source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - The annual inflation rate in Japan fell to 2.5% in September 2024 from 3.0% in the prior month, marking the lowest reading since April. Electricity prices increased the least in three months as the impact of energy subsidy removal in May waned (15.2% vs. 26.2% in August), and the cost of gas rose much more slowly (7.7% vs. 11.1%). Moreover, costs moderated for food (3.4% vs. 3.6%), furniture & household utensils (4.8% vs. 5.2%), transport (0.1% vs. 0.2%), and culture (4.3% vs. 4.8%). Additionally, prices fell further for communication (-2.6% vs. -2.4%) and education (-1.0% vs. -1.0%). On the other hand, inflation remained unchanged for housing (0.7%) and healthcare (1.5%), while edging higher for clothes (2.4% vs. 2.3%) and miscellaneous (0.9% vs. 0.8%). Meanwhile, the core inflation rate hit a five-month low of 2.4%, down from August's 2.8%, compared with the consensus of 2.3%. On a monthly basis, the CPI declined by 0.3%, pointing to the first drop since February 2023.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
GBPUSD → Support breakdown. CPI in the UK is declining... FX:GBPUSD confirms the bearish market structure. The price is breaking the support. Fundamental data is favorable for further continuation of the fall. UK Inflation: m/m = 0% (expectation +0.1% / previously +0.3%) YoY = +1.7% (expected +1.9% / previously +2.2%) Core CPI = +3.2% y/y (expected +3.4% / previously +3.6%) The USD index are rising on strong US economic data (last week's potential). All these data together have a corresponding impact on the currency pair, which breaks the support of the uptrend. A price consolidation below 1.3000 (strong psychological level) will open the way to 1.28-1.26. Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2938 Resistance levels: 1.309 Selling on the currency pair is intensifying, the price is entering the risk zone and the buyers are getting even more nervous... In the short term, a retest of the previously broken trend support is possible, followed by a fall towards 1.28-1.26 Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:GBPUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
6
$GBIRYY -U.K CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 1.7% source: Office for National Statistics -Annual inflation rate in the UK fell to 1.7% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in each of the previous two months and forecasts of 1.9%. The largest downward contribution came from transport (-2.2% vs 1.3%), namely air fares and motor fuels. Fares usually reduce in price between August and September, but this year this was the fifth largest fall since monthly data began in 2001. Also, the average price of petrol fell to 136.8 pence per litre compared to 153.6 pence per litre in September 2023. In addition, prices continued to fall for housing and utilities (-1.7% vs -1.6%) and furniture and household equipment (-1% vs -1.3%) and cost rose less for recreation and culture (3.8% vs 4%) and restaurants and hotels (4.1% vs 4.3%). Meanwhile, services inflation slowed to 4.9%, the lowest since May 2022, from 5.6% in August. On the other hand, the largest offsetting upward contribution came from food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.9% vs 1.3%).
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
SPX500 Pattern Repeating with EERIE overlayThe REAL S&P500 Index is plotted here from the data on SP:SPX and FRED:CPIAUCSL which is CPI-All Urban Consumers which allows us to see the "REAL", or inflation-adjusted S&P500 (excluding dividends) over the long term. Most people forget the impact that inflation has on the price of stocks because it gets complicated and small increases in price compound significantly over the the long term. So, to get down to the impact of this pattern that I have reported on several times in the past (see links below), the market has had a long sequence of progress along with crises along the way in the form of financial panics, tax-law changes, banking system stress, real estate market collapses, trade wars and technological innovation cycles. To break it down into the pattern, take a note of the 1955-1985 time frame and notice how there is a "mode" across that time frame which touches 13 different years. In 1984 the market "expands" upwards as denoted by the yellow triangle, surging up by more than the previous year's range, which implies the start of a new trend. In this case, the trend is estimated to be 13 years because 13 years touched the same price. 1984 + 13 years sets up a new mode in 1997 which is where the new mode formed through 2012. In 2013, the market surged upwards or "expanded" higher to indicate a new 11 year uptrend since there were 11 different years that touched the mode as shown. The INTERESTING PART is that we had similar types of activities AFTER this new trend kicked off: Notice the yellow circle which encompasses the 1987 stock market crash and 1990 bear market in a wild, sideways, choppy market environment. The same thing also happened after the current uptrend started with the 2016 election, 2020 covid crisis and even later the 2022 bear market (which is outside the circle). The GREEN "BARS PATTERN" is a copy of the 1984-current market and then pasted to the start of the same structure in 2013 where the current uptrend started from the 'mode'. Look how the market has moved rather in-synch with this pattern and I haven't even adjusted it for the 2-less years at the mode or 4 less years overall for the pattern from 1955-1984 (20 total years vs 13 years at one price) vs the 1997-2012 (16 total years vs 11 at one price). We can start analyzing similar news and technological changes to look for interesting stories to compare the two time frames. See what you can find. The AI craze now is certainly similar to the development of the internet bubble in the late 1990's. We have certainly heard this comparison before but this nails down the comparison into a more structural pattern that can be analyzed and used for making general projections. I'll follow up on this and let me know if you have any questions. Tim 10/16/2024 10:19AM EST
SP:SPX
by timwest
5
Canada’s job growth sparkles but Canadian dollar fallsThe Canadian dollar can’t find its footing and is trading at nine-week low against the US dollar. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3792 at the time of writing, up 0.21%. The Canadian dollar has recorded eight straight losing sessions and is down 1.9% in October. The week ended on a high note, as Canada’s employment growth jumped by 46.7 thousand, crushing the market estimate of 27 thousand and sharply higher than the August reading of 22.1 thousand. Full-time employment surged by 112 thousand, following a decline of 43.6 thousand in August, while the unemployment rate dropped from 6.6% to 6.5%. The impressive numbers couldn’t stop the Canadian dollar’s nasty slide but it will please Bank of Canada policymakers. The central bank has shifted its primary focus from inflation to risks to the labor market, now that inflation has been largely contained. In August, CPI dropped to 2%, its lowest level since February 2021. The BoC meets next week and has a tough decision to make. The drop in inflation raised the odds of a 50-basis point cut but Friday’s employment report was stronger than expected and supports the case for a modest 25-bps cut. The BoC has been aggressive in its rate-cutting cycle and has lowered rates three times this year in a bid to ease the pressure of elevated rates. The Federal Reserve has been late to the rate-lowering party, delivering its first rate cut in September. Still, the oversized 50-basis point cut in September signaled that the Fed means business and isn’t afraid to slash rates with large cuts. The Fed is expected to trim rates by an additional 50 or 75 basis points before year’s end. The most likely scenario is rate cuts of 25 bps in both November and December. The Fed could, however, deliver one more 50-bps cut if employment or inflation numbers are lower than expected. USD/CAD has pushed above resistance at 1.3758 and is testing resistance at 1.3790. The next resistance line is 1.3817 1.3731 and 1.3699 are the next support levels
by OANDA
$CNIRYY -China's CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY Inflation Data (September/2024) source: National Bureau of Statistics of China -China’s annual inflation rate stood at 0.4% in September 2024, below market forecasts and August’s figure of 0.6%. This was the 8th month of consumer inflation but was the lowest print since June, highlighting the need for more policy support from Beijing to address growing deflation risks. Non-food prices declined by 0.2%, following a 0.2% rise in August as the cost of transport shrank further (-4.1% vs -2.7%) due to lower crude oil prices. Also, housing prices edged down (-0.1% vs flat reading) amid government efforts to further regulate the property market. Meanwhile, cost slowed for health (1.2% vs 1.3%) and education (0.6% vs 1.3%). On the food side, prices rose for the second month, with the rate of increase the fastest in 20 months (3.3% vs 2.8%). Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy costs, increased 0.1% yoy, the smallest rise since February 2021, after a 0.3% gain in August. Monthly, the CPI was unchanged, compared with consensus and August’s print of a 0.4% rise.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Gold prices are upheld despite the obstacle of a strong dollar The September CPI exceeding market expectations has reduced the likelihood of a Fed’s jumbo cut, leading to a sharp increase in the dollar and Treasury yields. The probability of a 50bp cut is now at 0%, with a 10.4% chance of rates remaining unchanged. However, despite the dollar going north, gold prices are getting attention, approaching all-time highs, partly due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The upcoming release of September retail sales data is expected to impact gold prices directly. A solid retail sales outcome would reduce the likelihood of further Fed rate cuts, and the gold’s uptrend would take a break for a while. XAUUSD bounced back to 2650 after briefly testing EMA21. The price sustains a solid uptrend within the ascending channel and holds above both EMAs, indicating a bullish signal. If XAUUSD breaches the resistance at 2680 and the ascending channel's upper bound, the price may gain upward momentum toward a new record high of 2780. Conversely, if XAUUSD breaks EMA21 and fails to hold above the ascending channel's lower bound, the price may fall further to the 2520 level, where EMA78 coincides.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by inkicho_exness
Event-Driven Strategy using Bitcoin Weekly FuturesCME: Bitcoin Weekly Futures ( MIL:BFF ) On Thursday, October 10th, The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in August and July. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 2.4% before seasonal adjustment. However, the headline CPI came in ahead of the 0.1% monthly gain and 2.3% year-over-year rate expected by analysts polled by Dow Jones. As a result, both the US equity markets and cryptocurrencies slipped on Thursday. While the year-over-year headline CPI is the lowest since February 2021, digging into the category data reveals sticky inflation. Noticeable data includes: • Food: +2.3% YoY. However, Eggs jumped 39.6%, while “nonconcentrated juices + soft drinks” category was up 15.3%. • Motor vehicle insurance: +16.3% YoY • Video discs + other media: +11.6% YoY • Admission to sporting events: +10.3% YoY • Health insurance: +7.5% YoY High prices affect day-to-day life and contradict the notion of low inflation. The fact is that prices have gone up a lot in the past few years. Even though they rise more slowly now, the absolute price levels remain high. Examples from my personal experiences: • The $9 price tag for 1-1/2 dozen eggs caused me to reduce purchase to 1-dozon for $5. I still remember the good old days of 99-cent per dozen large eggs. • I watched a WNBC match featuring Indianapolis Fever and Catlin Clark in the summer. A seat close by the basketball court costs $200. Adding up hotel stay, fuel cost and a $50 T-shirt, this felt like a vacation budget. • A recent doctor’s visit required copayment of $100. Six months ago, the same clinic charged $75. This is a 33.3% increase. Event to Watch: The Next Fed Rate Decision Retrospectively, it appears that the Federal Reserve acted a bit too aggressively with the supersized 50-bp rate cut in September. With the sticky inflation data, the Fed’s next move on November 7th is uncertain. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, as of October 11th, the futures market expects the Fed to cut 25 basis points at the next FOMC meeting, with an 88.4% probability. Gone are the odds of another supersized cut. Meanwhile, the probability of a no-cut increases to 11.6%. www.cmegroup.com Driven by the lowered expectation on Fed rate cuts, on Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.14% to 42,454, and the S&P 500 slipped 0.21% to settle at 5,780. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq composite shaved up 10 points (-0.05%) and closed at 18,282. The cryptocurrency market has a more pronounced reaction. Bitcoin gave up the psychologically important $60K level, lost $1,442 (or -2.36%) and settled at $59,564. Meanwhile, ETHER gave up $57.2 (or -2.38%) and closed at $2,356. However, market sentiments are still very bullish. By Friday, strong Q3 earnings reported by JPMorgan and Well Fargo helped push the stock market up again, with the S&P 500 breaking 5,800 and making its 45th all-time high in 2024. In my opinion, Bitcoin futures would be a good instrument for event-driven trades on the Fed rate decisions, given its higher volatility. Introducing Bitcoin Friday Futures Bitcoin Friday futures ( MIL:BFF ) are weekly, USD-settled contracts that offer a more precise way to gain bitcoin exposure and manage risk relating to such exposure. Each contract represents 1/50 of a bitcoin, ensuring capital efficiency and accessibility. The contract size of BFF is 1/5 of that of Micro Bitcoin Futures ( NYSE:MBC ), which is 1/10 of a Bitcoin. These shorter-dated contracts expire and settle to the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate New York Variant (BRRNY) every Friday at 4:00 p.m. New York time and may track the spot price of bitcoin more closely. Futures contracts traditionally expire on a monthly or quarterly basis, such as BTC and MBT, whereas BFF will settle weekly every Friday. Because of this shorter duration, BFF will have a shorter cost of carry resulting in a price that may more closely track bitcoin’s spot price. Bitcoin futures price = bitcoin spot price + financing costs to carry the position to expiration Two consecutive Fridays will be listed at any time. A new BFF contract will be listed every Thursday at 6:00 p.m. New York time such that market participants will be able to trade the nearest Friday plus the next two Fridays giving traders the choice to hold or not hold exposure over the weekend depending on their preference. Trade Setup using BFF for the FOMC Event The Federal Open Market Committee will release its next rate decision at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on Thursday, November 7th. The BFF contract expiring Friday, November 8th will begin trading at 6:00 PM Eastern Time on Thursday, October 24th. A trade could be set up on or after October 24th, and closed by November 7th or 8th, after the market reacts to the Fed decision and before contract expiration. While the market overwhelmingly expects the Fed to cut 25 bps, new data could change the expectations dramatically in the next four weeks. The most important data points are: • BLS Nonfarmed Payroll and Unemployment, November 1st • US Presidential Election, November 5th Separately, the next BLS CPI release will be on November 13th, after the BFF November 8th contract. We could use the BFF November 15th contract to trade on that event. As an educational writeup, I do not offer a personal view on the future direction of BFF prices. With basic information provided here, traders could apply their own view to set up a trade on BFF. Generally, if the Fed cuts rates in December, stocks and cryptocurrencies could get a lifting as lower rates reduce the cost of capital. Meanwhile, if the Fed pauses and decides on no-cuts, the uncertainty on interest rate trajectory could cause risk capital to fall. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Editors' picks
CME:MBT1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
4
New HBO Documentary Hints at Identity of Bitcoin InventorMarket Update - October 11th 2024 Takeaways HBO documentary seeks to unveil Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity : HBO released a documentary, “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery,” on Tuesday that suggests an early Bitcoin developer named Peter Todd invented the cryptocurrency. Crypto.com has filed a lawsuit against the SEC after receiving a Wells notice, claiming the agency has overextended its authority : The lawsuit challenges the SEC's stance that most cryptocurrencies are securities and the agency's regulatory practices. Bitcoin's price pulled back this week : The US Department of Labor announced that inflation rose 2.4% year-over-year in September, slightly above analyst expectations. Crypto reacted negatively to the news, with bitcoin dropping back below $60,000. US spot bitcoin ETFs saw $18.66 million in net outflows on Tuesday, led by Fidelity’s FBTC, which recorded $48.82 million in withdrawals : BlackRock’s IBIT was the only ETF to see inflows, with $39.57 million entering the fund. The head of Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) says the body plans to approve more crypto exchanges before the end of 2024 : The news comes after the regulator received criticism for implementing a strict approach to licensing. New HBO Documentary Suggests Peter Todd is Bitcoin’s Founder An HBO documentary, “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery,” released Tuesday hints that early Bitcoin developer Peter Todd is the cryptocurrency’s founder and man behind the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. In a clip late in the documentary, Todd denied he is the founder of Bitcoin and continued to deny it in a subsequent interview with Coindesk and other media outlets. The film provided minimal concrete evidence that Todd created Bitcoin, but focused instead on his technical skills, his love of cryptography, and his relationship with Adam Back, the Blockstream CEO and investor of Hashcash. "Money Electric" director Cullen Hoback also pointed to a 2010 forum post from Satoshi Nakamoto in which Todd responded, arguing that Todd had forgotten to switch his accounts and his post was a continuation of Satoshi’s original post. "This is going to be very funny when you put this into the documentary and a bunch of bitcoiners watch it," Todd said in the documentary clip while standing alongside Back. "I suspect a lot of them will be very happy if you go this route because it's yet another example of journalists really missing the point in a way that's very funny." This is not the first time Hoback has made a documentary film about trying to uncover the identity of a secretive figure. For his 2021 HBO documentary “Q: Into the Storm,” Hoback spent three years attempting to find the creator of Qanon. Crypto.com Sues SEC After Receiving Wells Notice Crypto.com has officially sued the SEC after the company received a Wells notice from the regulatory agency, which typically precedes enforcement actions. The platform said the SEC's continued regulatory enforcement against crypto companies forced them into taking legal action. According to Crypto.com, the SEC is unjustly expanding its jurisdiction over digital assets by labeling most cryptocurrencies as securities. The lawsuit is part of a broader industry pushback against the SEC's regulatory approach, which many crypto companies claim is outdated and unsuitable for digital assets. The platform is far from the first to take such legal action; Coinbase and Consensys have also previously sued the SEC, similarly challenging the agency’s stance on categorizing cryptocurrencies as securities. The SEC has reiterated the need for crypto exchanges to register with the agency, while firms argue that current regulations are impractical for the digital asset sector. 🌉 Topic of the Week: What is Bridging? ➡️ Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
XAU/USD : CPI is Coming, More Bullish Move ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the Gold chart on the 1-hour timeframe, we can see that after entering the desired demand zone, the price started to rise and is currently trading around $2,617. Considering that the US CPI data will be released today and I expect the actual value to be equal to or lower than the forecasted rate, I anticipate an upward movement in price to fill the liquidity void mentioned in the previous analysis. Based on the previous analysis, the key supply zones remain as follows: $2,625, $2,636.6, $2,646, and $2,655 to $2,660. I hope you make the most out of this analysis! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
27
Nasdaq Awaits Inflation Data; Bullish or Bearish Breakout ExpectNasdaq Technical Analysis Today’s inflation report is anticipated to drive significant market movements, particularly following unanimous agreement among Fed members to cut rates by 50 basis points. A CPI release exceeding 2.3% is expected to support a bearish trend towards 20100. Conversely, a CPI below 2.3% would likely drive a bullish trend, targeting 20450. Technically: as long as trades under 20280 will try to touch 20100 and then should stabilize below that to continue the bearish trend, Otherwise, stability above 20340 will reach 20450 Key Levels: Pivot Point: 20280 Resistance Levels: 20440, 20710, 20920 Support Levels: 20100, 19990, 19860 Trend: - Bearish below 20280 - Bullish above 20320
OANDA:NAS100USD
by SroshMayi
Delta Air Lines (NYSE: $DAL) Set to Report Q3 Earnings Today As Delta Air Lines (NYSE: NYSE:DAL ) prepares to report its Q3 earnings on October 10, 2024, investors are keenly watching for signs of a potential breakout. Despite facing industry-wide challenges, including rising costs and the looming impact of Hurricane Milton, Delta stock ( NYSE:DAL ) is showing signs of bullish momentum. With analysts predicting a 25% earnings decline to $1.52 per share, the Atlanta-based airline still has promising revenue growth forecasts, as the airline sector continues to rebound. Earnings Outlook For Q3, analysts expect Delta’s earnings to decline 25% year-over-year, largely due to higher operating costs and fare competition caused by an oversupply of flights but that's too bad. However, revenue is expected to inch up by 0.7%, reaching $15.595 billion, thanks to steady travel demand at least some hopium. The outlook for Delta’s full-year earnings suggests a slight dip to $6.18 per share, which is within the airline’s guidance range of $6-$7 per share. Notably, analysts project a strong 19% rebound in earnings for 2025, raising optimism for long-term investors. Revenue Hit from IT Outage: This earnings report will be Delta’s first since the massive IT outage in July caused by a CrowdStrike software update. The outage forced the airline to cancel thousands of flights, resulting in a $500 million revenue hit. While the company has considered legal action against the software provider, the incident has cast a shadow over its Q3 performance. ugh With all this, i don't think NYSE:DAL stock could escape the plunge. Hurricane Milton's Impact: The imminent arrival of Hurricane Milton, a Category 4 storm, poses an additional threat to Delta’s Q3 results. On Wednesday alone, over 2,500 flights were canceled, many of which belonged to Delta. The company is bracing for further disruptions as the hurricane hits Florida’s west coast. This comes on the heels of Hurricane Helene, which wreaked havoc across the Southeast earlier in the month. Despite these headwinds, Delta’s leadership in the airline industry remains solid. As one of the most profitable U.S. carriers, Delta is expected to weather these short-term challenges and emerge stronger, especially as the entire travel sector, including cruise lines and hotels, rebounds aggressively into 2025. Technical Analysis: On the technical front, Delta stock is approaching a key buy point at $52.45, which represents a cup-with-handle formation. The stock has been in a rally mode, following a 6% gap-up in late September, when Southwest Airlines raised its revenue guidance and lowered fuel cost projections. Since then, Delta stock (NYSE: NYSE:DAL ) has gained nearly 2%, closing just shy of the crucial buy point on Wednesday. Bullish RSI and Inverted Hammer Signal Potential Breakout: As of Wednesday’s close, Delta stock (NYSE: NYSE:DAL ) exhibited a bullish RSI of 67.24, suggesting strong momentum. Additionally, the daily price chart revealed a bullish inverted hammer candlestick, a pattern often indicative of a potential reversal to the upside. A breakout above $52.45 could pave the way for a move toward the pivot point at $54, marking a bullish trajectory for the stock. However, traders should also keep a close eye on the downside. A break below the one-month low of $46 could trigger a selling spree, especially if the hurricane impacts the company more severely than expected. Broader Sector Rebound: A Positive Tailwind While Delta faces (NYSE: NYSE:DAL ) its own unique challenges, the broader airline sector has been rallying for nine straight weeks. United Airlines ( NASDAQ:UAL ) and Southwest Airlines ( NYSE:LUV ), which are set to report earnings later this month, have both been climbing in tandem. The entire travel sector, buoyed by strong demand for both leisure and business travel, continues to outperform, with analysts predicting further gains through 2025. In addition to the airline industry, cruise lines like Royal Caribbean ( NYSE:RCL ) and travel booking platforms have seen robust growth, with Citi analysts noting that the rally “has real legs” into 2025. For Delta, this sector-wide recovery could provide further support for its stock price, despite near-term turbulence. Price Target and Analyst Sentiment: Delta stock (NYSE: NYSE:DAL ) is currently trading around $47.90, down 6.5% in premarket trading on Thursday. Analysts remain optimistic about the stock’s long-term prospects, with a consensus price target of $61.89, implying a 21% upside from Wednesday’s close. Additionally, 11 analysts have assigned Delta a "Strong Buy" rating, further bolstering the bullish sentiment surrounding the stock. Conclusion: Delta Air Lines (NYSE: NYSE:DAL ) is at a critical juncture as it prepares to report Q3 earnings. Despite the challenges posed by Hurricane Milton, rising costs, and the recent IT outage, Delta’s fundamentals remain strong. The airline is expected to see a modest revenue increase in Q3, with significant earnings growth projected for next year. Technically, the stock is on the cusp of a potential breakout, and a move above $52.45 could trigger a fresh rally. However, investors should remain cautious, as a dip below $46 could lead to a sell-off.
NYSE:DALShort
by DEXWireNews
XAUUSD - Gold waiting for an important weekIn 4H timeframe, gold is moving above the EMA200 and EMA50 in its ascending channel Gold is still trading in its range box, and geopolitical tensions and the strengthening of the dollar have not led to its failure to rise or fall so far As long as gold is in this range, the best strategy will be to buy at the bottom and sell at the top breaking of the two drawn upward and downward trend lines is the first warning in the direction of changing the trend, but the stabilization above the support and resistance ranges will provide the path for gold to break this range box in an authentic way The potential target of this upward and downward movement will be the ceiling and bottom of the ascending channel It should be noted that if Anas moves downward, we will look for medium-term gold buying positions at the bottom of the channel
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Ali_PSND
XAUUSD - Gold waiting for an important weekIn 4H timeframe, gold is moving above the EMA200 and EMA50 in its ascending channel Gold is still trading in its range box, and geopolitical tensions and the strengthening of the dollar have not led to its failure to rise or fall so far As long as gold is in this range, the best strategy will be to buy at the bottom and sell at the top breaking of the two drawn upward and downward trend lines is the first warning in the direction of changing the trend, but the stabilization above the support and resistance ranges will provide the path for gold to break this range box in an authentic way The potential target of this upward and downward movement will be the ceiling and bottom of the ascending channel It should be noted that if Anas moves downward, we will look for medium-term gold buying positions at the bottom of the channel
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Ali_PSND