$EUIRYY - Europe CPI below 2% Target (May/2025)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY 1.9%
May/2025
source: EUROSTAT
- Eurozone CPI eased to 1.9% year-on-year in May 2025,
down from 2.2% in April and below market expectations of 2.0%.
This marks the first time inflation has fallen below the European Central Bank’s 2.0% target since September 2024, reinforcing expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut later this week and raising the possibility of additional cuts.
A key driver of the deceleration was a sharp slowdown in services inflation, which dropped to 3.2% from 4.0% in April, its lowest level since March 2022.
Energy prices continued to decline, falling by 3.6% year-on-year, while inflation for non-energy industrial goods held steady at 0.6%.
In contrast, prices for food, alcohol, and tobacco accelerated, rising 3.3% compared with 3.0% the previous month.
Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, slipped to 2.3%, the lowest reading since January 2022. source: EUROSTAT
CPI
$USPCEPIMC -U.S Core PCE (April/2025)ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC
April/2025
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
-The core PCE price index in the US, which excludes volatile and energy prices and is Federal Reserve's chosen gauge of underlying inflation in the US economy,
went up 0.1% from the previous month in April of 2025.
The result was in line with market expectations.
From the previous year, the index rose by 2.5% to slow from the 2.7% jump from March, the softest increase since March of 2021.
$JPIRYY -Japan's CPI (April/2025)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 3.6%
April/2025
source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
- Japan's annual inflation rate stood at 3.6% in April 2025,
unchanged from March while remaining at its lowest print since December.
Food prices rose the least in four months (6.5% vs 7.4% in March) even as rice costs jumped 94.8% y-o-y, hitting a new record for the 7th straight month due to poor harvests and rising demand from record tourist numbers.
Price growth also eased for clothing (2.7% vs 3.0%) and household items (4.1% vs 4.5%).
Cost of education fell much steeper (-5.6% vs -1.2%).
In contrast, inflation was stable for transport (at 2.7%) while accelerating for housing (1.0% vs 0.8%), healthcare (2.2% vs 2.0%), recreation (2.7% vs 2.0%), communications (1.1% vs 1.0%), and miscellaneous items (1.3% vs 1.1%).
Prices of electricity (13.5% vs 8.7% ) and gas (4.4% vs 2.4%) rose the most in three months, as the impact of government subsidies faded.
Core inflation climbed to an over 2-year high of 3.5% from 3.2% in March.
Monthly, the CPI rose 0.1%, easing from a 0.3% gain in March.
Slower Inflation Growth, Takes DXY lower.Overnight, the DXY traded lower, driven by 2 main factors.
1) The release of lower-than-expected CPI data at 2.3%
2) Rejection of the long-term bearish trendline and the area of confluence formed by the 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels from the longer term.
If the DXY breaks below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the shorter term, we could expect to see further downside, toward the target level of 100.
This round-number level would align with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the short-term bullish trendline.
$USIRYY - U.S Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Slows (April/2025)ECONOMICS:USIRYY
April/2025
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The annual inflation rate in the US eased to 2.3% in April, the lowest since February 2021, from 2.4% in March and below forecasts of 2.4%.
Prices of gasoline fell at a faster pace and inflation also slowed for food and transportation.
Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.2%, rebounding from a 0.1% fall in March but below forecasts of 0.3%.
Meanwhile, annual core inflation rate steadied at 2.8% as expected, holding at 2021-lows.
Nasdaq Tests Key 20,900 ResistanceAs shown in chart above, price action is hovering near the neckline of a well-defined double top pattern, formed between December 2024 and February 2025, similarly across the Dow and SPX500 charts.
This reinforces a key resistance zone that could either validate a more sustainable bullish outlook into 2025 — or trigger another correction if rejected.
Nasdaq Upside Scenario: A confirmed hold above 20,900 may extend gains toward 21,500, and 22,200.
Downside Scenario: A pullback below 20900 and 20,500 could find support at 20,200, 19,600, and 19,170, respectively.
Markets are currently holding on trade optimism, yet key economic reports are likely to test the narrative
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
EURUSD Tests Head and Shoulders Target Ahead of CPIIn line with the inverted head and shoulders formation seen on the DXY from its 2025 lows, EURUSD has completed a breakout of its own head and shoulders pattern, reaching the 1.1070 target.
With the 4H RSI rebounding from oversold territory, a bullish bounce for EURUSD appears likely toward the 1.1140 level.
A clean hold above this resistance could extend gains to 1.1270, 1.1380, 1.1430, and eventually to the 2025 high at 1.1570.
If dollar strength resumes and EURUSD falls back below 1.1070, downside levels to watch include 1.1000, 1.0920, and 1.0760.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
$EUIRYY -Europe CPI (April/2025)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
April/2025
source: EUROSTAT
- Consumer price inflation in the Euro Area remained steady at 2.2% in April 2025, slightly exceeding market expectations of 2.1% and hovering just above the European Central Bank’s 2.0% target midpoint, according to a preliminary estimate.
A sharper drop in energy prices (-3.5% vs. -1.0% in March) was offset by faster inflation in services (3.9% vs. 3.5%) and food, alcohol, and tobacco (3.0% vs. 2.9%). Prices for non-energy industrial goods rose by 0.6%, unchanged from March.
Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, climbed to 2.7%, up from March’s three-year low of 2.4% and above the forecast of 2.5%.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.6% in April, matching March’s rise.
After CAN CPIs, it's time to prepare for BoC rate decisionLooking at the CPI numbers that came out, we are noticing some weakness in the CAD right now. This weakness may spill over into tomorrow's trading, as the BoC is expected to keep the rates unchaged.
Let's dig in!
FX_IDC:USDCAD
MARKETSCOM:USDCAD
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$USIRYY -United States CPI (March/2025)ECONOMICS:USIRYY
(March/2025)
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The annual inflation rate in the US eased for a second consecutive month to 2.4% in March 2025, the lowest since September, down from 2.8% in February, and below forecasts of 2.6%.
Prices for gasoline (-9.8% vs -3.1%) and fuel oil (-7.6% vs -5.1%) fell more while natural gas prices soared (9.4% vs 6%).
Inflation also slowed for shelter (4% vs 4.2%), used cars and trucks (0.6% vs 0.8%), and transportation (3.1% vs 6%) while prices were unchanged for new vehicles (vs -0.3%).
On the other hand, inflation accelerated for food (3% vs 2.6%).
Compared to the previous month, the CPI decreased 0.1%, the first fall since May 2020, compared to expectations of a 0.1% gain.
The index for energy fell 2.4%, as a 6.3% decline in gasoline more than offset increases in electricity (0.9%) and natural gas (3.6%).
Meanwhile, annual core inflation eased to 2.8%, the lowest since March 2021, and below forecasts of 3%.
On a monthly basis, the core CPI edged up 0.1%, below expectations of 0.3%.
$CNIRYY -China's CPI (March/2025)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
March/2025
source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
- China's consumer prices fell by 0.1% year-on-year in March 2025, missing market expectations of a 0.1% increase and marking the second consecutive month of drop, as the ongoing trade dispute with the U.S. threatens to exert further downward pressure on prices.
Still, the latest drop was significantly milder than February’s 0.7% fall, supported by a smaller decline in food prices as pork prices accelerated and fresh fruit costs rebounded.
Meanwhile, non-food prices rose by 0.2%, reversing a slight dip of 0.1% in February, driven by increases in housing (0.1% vs 0.1%), healthcare (0.1% vs 0.2%), and education (0.8% vs -0.5%), despite a continued decline in transport costs (-2.6% vs -2.5%).
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose 0.5% in March, rebounding from a 0.1% decrease in February. On a monthly basis, the CPI declined by 0.4%, a steeper fall than a 0.2% drop in February, marking the second straight month of contraction.
Will 3 Times Be The Charm For GBPUSD??We can see FX:GBPUSD retrace a tad further up to the Volume Imbalance that was created over the weekend of April 4th - 7th. After Price made its High @ 1.3207, it was immediately rejected back down below the Past Level of Support that is now showing signs of Resistance!
- Following that Higher High not only resulted in a Lower Low but also sent the RSI under 50 into Bearish Territory!
Now in the ICT Methodology of Volume Imbalances, Price is likely to Test or Fill the Imbalance, then once satisfied, has a high potential to turn the opposite direction. Now a Pullback to Fill the Imbalance would land Price right at the 38.2% Fibonacci Level @ 1.28984 where if Bulls are unable to push Price back above, would be an excellent Shorting Opportunity for Bears to overcome.
- RSI is now below the 50 suggesting Bulls have lost steam and strengthens the potential for more downside to occur but that would call for a Break and Retest Scenario on the Rising Support.
Fundamentally, the Federal Reserve will be releasing the CPI y/y and m/m results where analysts believe there to be a .3% decrease in inflation forecasting a 2.5% CPI for March from the previous 2.8% for February. Given this, the FOMC " do not plan to come to rescue Trump with rate cuts" and insist that all the Tariff pressure will actually be a reasoning for Inflation to Rise! So if CPI ends up printing Hotter than Expected (Higher), we could see a renewed strength in the USD.
EURUSD TO BUY (Wednesday-FOMC Meeting Minutes and Thursday-CPI)As EURUSD as been dropping the past couple of days, it has been on the support levels of 1.0900 lately. On Wednesday and Thursday, there are news about FOMC Meeting Minutes and CPI of the US Dollar. Therefore, we could possibly see price of the EURUSD going up based on news, support pattern of the triangle.
TP: 1.1050-1.110
$EUIRYY -Europe CPI (March/2025)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
March/2025
source: EUROSTAT
- Annual inflation in the Euro Area eased to 2.2% in March 2025,
the lowest rate since November 2024 and slightly below market expectations of 2.3%.
Services inflation slowed to a 33-month low (3.4% vs. 3.7% in February),
while energy costs declined (-0.7% vs. 0.2%).
However, inflation remained steady for both non-energy industrial goods (0.6%) and processed food, alcohol & tobacco (2.6%), and unprocessed food prices surged (4.1% vs. 3.0%).
Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to 2.4%, slightly below market forecasts of 2.5% and marking its lowest level since January 2022.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.6% in March, following a 0.4% advance in February.
$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate (February/2025)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
February/2025
source: Office for National Statistics
- The annual inflation rate in the UK fell to 2.8% in February 2025 from 3% in January, below market expectations of 2.9%, though in line with the Bank of England's forecast.
The largest downward contribution came from prices of clothing which declined for the first time since October 2021 (-0.6% vs 1.8%), led by garments for women and children's clothing.
Inflation also eased in recreation and culture (3.4% vs. 3.8%), particularly in live music admission and recording media, as well as in housing and utilities (1.9% vs. 2.1%), including actual rents for housing (7.4% vs. 7.8%).
In contrast, food inflation was unchanged at 3.3% and prices rose faster for transport (1.8% vs 1.7%) and restaurants and hotels (3.4% vs 3.3%).
Meanwhile, services inflation held steady at 5%.
The annual core inflation rate declined to 3.5% from 3.7%.
Compared to the previous month, the CPI increased 0.4%, rebounding from a 0.1% decline but falling short of the expected 0.5% increase.
How to Track Inflation NumberHow to track inflation number?
When the Fed mentions their 2% inflation target, are they referring to the commonly published CPI that we often read about, or are they referring to Core CPI or Core PCE?
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17/03/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $85,306.40
Last weeks low: $76,622.98
Midpoint: $80,964.69
It's FOMC week again! Last week it was CPI week and inflation numbers came in under forecast signaling the Tradfi market sell-off and implementation of tariffs have at least had a positive impact on the consumer price index, a 2.8% print 0.1% lower than forecast. As this relates to FOMC the forecast is a non mover with interest rates staying at 4.5%.
However this does not necessarily mean that FOMC will be a non event in terms of the markets, volatility is always expected and with a suspected Trump insider opening a $380m 40x short position on BTC with a liquidation price of $86,600. I expect this price to be hit at some point this week purely because CT is targeting this account that has had a perfect 8/8 trade record to stop hunt it, I think FOMC could proved the volatility to do it.
The general structure of BTC as a whole despite this stop hunt narrative is bearish, after losing $91k support and a retest confirming the level as new resistance structurally it makes sense to revisit FWB:73K to retest it as support. This would be horrible for the broader altcoin market that has suffered greatly so far this year but it would eliminate the need to fill the FVG in the future.
This week I am keeping a close eye on that stop hunt and FOMC as I feel that will dictate if we retest $91K or $73K.
$USIRYY - U.S Inflation Rate Slows More Than ExpectedECONOMICS:USIRYY 2.8% YoY
(February/2025)
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The annual inflation rate in the US eased to 2.8% in February below 3% in January and market expectations of 2.9%.
On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2%, slowing from 0.5% rise in January and below market expectations of 0.3%.
Core CPI also rose 0.2% on the month and was at 3.1% on a 12-month basis, both below consensus.
BITCOIN - WHERE ARE WE? When zooming out and looking at the Bitcoin chart, despite how crazy the market has been in recent weeks it comes down to a simple market structure with three separate clearly definable ranges:
RED RANGE (Accumulation) - From FEB '24 until the US election BTC chopped in primarily the top half of a range with five separate midpoint retests with progressively shallower rallies that eventually broke out with a catalyst from the political world.
BLUE RANGE (Expansion) - After a 10 month accumulation range the next phase in the bull cycle was expansion, a rally above ATH and into price discovery. An extremely thin inefficiency rally.
Now price currently is at the midpoint of this range and despite the geo-political waterfall of bad news BTC has held up better than I had expected given that usually a rally that goes straight up has no support levels on the way back down. The chart does suggest a retest at $73,700 at some point before deciding which direction to go in after that.
GREEN ZONE (Distribution) - For the last 3 months Bitcoins price has been extremely volatile, bouncing between $91-108K, the range containing price perfectly with weekly retests of the range bottom and a swing fail of the range high. That SFP set off the beginning of BTCs sell-off eventually breaking through the bottom and back into the blue range.
With Bitcoin at the midpoint of the middle range it's a perfect time to have a data release in CPI, A volatile news event that can be a catalyst for a larger market move and with Tradfi selling off, this CPI is the most important of the Trump administrations term so far:
CPI DAY
PREVIOUS: 3.0%
FORECAST: 2.9%
ACTUAL: ??
Bullish - sub 2.8% print. At least the market sell-off is having a positive effect on inflation and isn't painful for no reason. BTC reclaims blue midpoint with a view to retest blue high.
Bearish - 2.9% or higher. Market sell-off hasn't has an immediate effect on inflation so the sell-off is bad in all aspects, except for the Trump admin moving closer to their wish of a weaker dollar and lower interest rates. FWB:73K blue range bottom retest on the cards.