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13/01/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $102,745.89 Last weeks low: $91,200.80 Midpoint: $96,973.35 A shaky week for BTC and the broader crypto market, mostly due to stronger than expected PMI and unemployment numbers decreasing the likelihood of rate cuts or at least a less aggressive rate cut cycle than previously expected due to a stronger economy. This is bad news for risk-on assets as borrowing capital stays expensive, with the next FOMC minutes coming less than 10 days after Trumps inauguration, last weeks bearish PA is a move to price in a no cut interest rate decision IMO. The weekly low is once again ~$91-92K which is a key area of support on the higher timeframes crating a rangebound environment so it should be treated as such, if weekly low is lost and price is accepted below then $85,000 comes into play as next support. This would be a capitulation wick IMO to trap the fearful before a very pro crypto administration begins in the US in a weeks time. At the same time price acceptance above ~$102,000 would be a bullish breakout of this rangebound environment and would signal the move to ATH at $108,000. I do believe we make new highs this quarter, I'm not sure how soon we will do that I think there is caution in the market going into January 20th and so unless there is critical news (maybe CPI on Wednesday) before then that changes this dynamic, a choppy week is expected. This week I'm cautiously optimistic about getting some good altcoin entries at key levels in strong fundamental plays. If BTC does hold above weekly low for the week I can see some very good opportunities presenting themselves.
by ProR35
3
Dollar strength stopped as December CPI cools The dollar retreated further as the deceleration in core CPI for Dec increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut in June FOMC rose to 67% from 57%. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stressed that inflation is approaching the 2% target again and price pressures were continuing to slow. Failed to hold EMA21, DXY consolidates near the 109.00 threshold. The index briefly broke below EMA78 and the trendline, indicating the possibility of a bearish transition. If DXY fails to hold EMA78 and the trendline, the index may fall further to the support at 108.30. Conversely, if DXY breaches above EMA21, the index could regain upward momentum toward the 110.15 high.
TVC:DXY
by inkicho_exness
$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate (December/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY December/2024 source: Office for National Statistics -Annual inflation rate in the UK unexpectedly edged lower to 2.5% in December 2024 from 2.6% in November, below forecasts of 2.6%. However, it matched the BoE's forecast from early November. Prices slowed for restaurants and hotels (3.4%, the lowest since July 2021 vs 4%), mainly due to a 1.9% fall in prices of hotels. Inflation also slowed for recreation and communication (3.4% vs 3.6%) and services (4.4%, the lowest since March 2022 vs 5) and steadied for food and non-alcoholic beverages (at 2%). Meanwhile, prices decreased less for transport (-0.6% vs -0.9%) as upward effects from motor fuels and second-hand cars (1%) partially offset a downward effect from air fare (-26%). Also, prices rose slightly more for housing and utilities (3.1% vs 3%). Compared to November, the CPI rose 0.3%, above 0.1% in the previous period but below forecasts of 0.4%. The annual core inflation rate also declined to 3.2% from 3.5% and the monthly rate went up to 0.3%, below forecasts of 0.5%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
XAUUSD - The CPI index will determine the gold path!Gold is located in a 4 -hour timeframe above EMA200 and EMA50 and is on its uptrend channel. If weaken in CPI data and market concerns about inflation, gold buying opportunities. The release of the headline stronger than the expectation of the CPI will result in the uptrend and decrease in gold. But in the secondary wave it will result in gold climbing. Gold prices have reached their highest levels in approximately four weeks, nearing the $2,700 range. Recent changes in stock markets and concerns over U.S. economic policies have driven increased demand for gold. Several key factors have contributed to the recent price surges. First, rising global tensions, particularly involving major powers such as the U.S., Russia, and China, have destabilized financial markets, prompting investors to turn to gold as a safe-haven asset to shield against potential crises. Second, persistent concerns about inflation in major economies have made gold an attractive option for preserving purchasing power. Additionally, central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves, boosting demand. Finally, expectations of interest rate cuts or potential easing by central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have further enhanced gold’s appeal. Gold prices have previously experienced sharp declines. Between 2011 and 2015, gold lost nearly 45% of its value, falling from its peak of $1,920 per ounce to $1,050 per ounce, driven by a strong dollar, rising interest rates, and an improving economy. Beyond this historical context, other scenarios could also lead to a 30% decline in gold prices. For instance, if the Federal Reserve adopts unexpectedly aggressive monetary policies and raises interest rates faster than anticipated, the strengthening dollar would exert downward pressure on gold prices. A sudden increase in gold supply could also push prices lower, whether due to the discovery of new reserves or the sale of gold holdings by central banks or large institutions. Moreover, robust improvements in global economies alongside geopolitical stability could dampen demand for gold. Finally, growing investor interest in alternative assets, such as cryptocurrencies or other commodities, could diminish gold’s perceived value. Paul Williams, CEO of Solomon Global, has forecasted that the factors driving 39 record-breaking gold price highs last year remain intact and could support further price growth in 2025. In his report, Williams stated: “The year 2024 reinforced gold’s role as a timeless and safe asset. In a world filled with geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainties, gold has provided stability and security for investors. The record highs achieved in 2024 reflect not only market conditions but also a broader sense of caution and risk mitigation among investors. This trend appears poised to continue into 2025.” Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal has released predictions from 17 economists on U.S. inflation data set to be announced on Wednesday, January 15, 2025. In 2024, the Federal Reserve made limited progress in curbing inflation, with most inflation indicators only slightly declining from the start of the year. Although policymakers had hoped inflation would approach the 2% target, persistent inflationary pressures have kept it near 3%. However, November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report offered a glimmer of hope. Prices in sectors such as housing and services, which have been major drivers of persistent inflation, have begun to ease. This may lead to an unexpected decline in Wednesday’s CPI data, although more significant decreases are likely in early 2025. Analysts predict a monthly CPI increase of 0.3%, which is lower than the 0.4% forecast from the Federal Reserve Cleveland’s Inflation Nowcast model. According to these projections, annual CPI is expected to rise from 2.7% to 2.9% in November. Given that markets currently price in only two 25-basis-point rate cuts for all of 2025, a strong CPI report may not elicit a major market reaction. However, if CPI data comes in weaker than expected, the U.S. dollar could face selling pressure.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
XAGUSD - Silver, waiting for the release of the CPI index!Silver is in a 4 -hour timeframe, between EMA200 and EMA50, moving in its upside channel. If you continue the decline, we can see the channel floor failure and a limited support. Silver stabilization above the resistance range will provide us with silver climbing route to the supply zone, where we can sell at a proper risk. The U.S. employment report for December disrupted expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, highlighting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a key market driver. Job creation surged by 256,000, significantly surpassing the forecast of 160,000, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. This data triggered a sharp rise in Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.79%, the highest level since 2023. Higher yields increase the cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver, which could face headwinds if inflation accelerates. Markets now expect the Federal Reserve to hold off on rate cuts until at least June, a notable shift from earlier forecasts anticipating rate reductions in spring. A hotter-than-expected CPI report could further delay this timeline, strengthening the dollar and potentially putting pressure on silver prices. Silver’s industrial role continues to support its prices, driven by robust global demand in industries like solar energy and electronics.The production of solar panels, a major consumer of silver, remains a key driver, while geopolitical and inflationary risks have boosted silver’s appeal as an inflation hedge. Gold’s stability in a high-yield environment has indirectly supported silver as well. Amid stock market volatility, investors have turned to both precious metals. The S&P 500 has declined by 1% year-to-date. Additionally, concerns over tariffs and the fiscal policies proposed by President-elect Donald Trump have increased demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, speculation around Trump’s potential policies, including tariffs and spending programs, has heightened market uncertainty. Markets are grappling with whether these measures will stoke inflation or negatively impact growth, creating mixed conditions for silver. Major global banks are revising their forecasts for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Bank of America has stated it no longer expects any rate cuts in 2025. The bank believes the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle has ended and sees the next move as more likely to be a rate hike. Citi has also updated its projections, announcing that it no longer anticipates a Fed rate cut in January. The bank now forecasts a potential rate reduction in May. Deutsche Bank has similarly noted that the Fed is unlikely to lower rates in the near term. The bank believes the Fed is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with future actions heavily dependent on incoming economic data. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed will implement two 0.25% rate cuts in June and December, totaling 0.5% for the year. This marks a revision from its earlier forecast of a 0.75% reduction. Finally, Morgan Stanley has indicated that the likelihood of a near-term rate cut has diminished. However, the bank still considers a rate cut in March plausible due to an improving inflation outlook.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
USDJPY - Will the weakness of the yen stop?!The USDJPY pairing in the 4 -hour timeframe is between EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its mid -term uptrend. If corrected by publishing economic data this week, we can see the downward trend and then the restricted demand zone, and in that area with the right risk. The valid defeat of the specified resistance range will pave the way for the pair up to 160. Tatsu Yamasaki, a former Japanese official, stated in an interview with Nikkei that collaboration between Trump and Tokyo could help normalize the dollar-yen exchange rate. He suggested that Trump should work with Tokyo to weaken the overly strong dollar. Such cooperation could strengthen economic relations between the two nations and bring greater stability to financial markets. Meanwhile, robust U.S. labor market data for December has led many analysts to conclude that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates further at this time. Some even predict that the report could pave the way for the Fed to raise interest rates in 2025. An economist at Bank of America wrote in a note, “Our baseline forecast is that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady for an extended period. However, the risk of a rate hike is growing.” According to the economist, factors such as core inflation growth or rising inflation expectations could trigger a rate hike.Concerns also revolve around Trump’s policies, including tax cuts and tariffs, which may contribute to higher inflation. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), remarked that the Federal Reserve might delay rate cuts due to stable labor markets and inflation nearing target levels. She also predicted that global economic growth will remain steady as inflation gradually declines in 2025. Georgieva highlighted uncertainties surrounding trade policies under the new U.S. administration, emphasizing their potential impact on the global economy. Additionally, she expects global interest rates to remain relatively high for an extended period. Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, stated that interest rates will be raised if economic improvements and price growth continue. He noted that the final decision on this matter will be made next week. Ueda’s remarks contributed to strengthening the yen in financial markets. Himino, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, indicated that if economic projections materialize, monetary easing policies will be adjusted and interest rates increased. He stressed the need for continuous monitoring of U.S. economic policies under the new administration. Domestically, one of the critical issues remains the outlook for wage growth in the fiscal year 2025. Himino acknowledged various risks, both domestic and international, while noting that the U.S. economy is expected to remain strong. Masato Kanda, a former currency official for Japan, continues to comment on the yen. Speaking in Tokyo, he emphasized that currency markets should move based on fundamental principles, and any sudden deviations from these fundamentals require correction. Separately, Nippon Steel announced that it is the sole partner capable of fully preserving U.S. Steel, keeping its blast furnaces operational, and maintaining jobs in the industry. The company stated that its commitments have been shared in multiple meetings with various stakeholders, including employees. Meanwhile, Lourenco Goncalves, CEO of Cleveland-Cliffs, has been accused of unfair biases, as he cannot match the scope and scale of Nippon Steel’s proposal. Nippon Steel emphasized its determination to take whatever measures are necessary to finalize the deal.
Short
by Ali_PSND
BTC on the Edge Falling Wedge Breakout & CPI Impact Awaited !The chart shows Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on the 4-hour timeframe, moving within a falling wedge pattern The falling wedge pattern is a bullish continuation/reversal formation, where the price compresses within converging trendlines. BTC has been respecting the pattern's boundaries, suggesting a potential breakout. The immediate resistance zone at $97,200 has been tested multiple times, but the price has faced consistent rejections, indicating strong selling pressure in this area. For a bullish breakout, we need a 4-hour candle close above $97,200. If this happens, it could trigger a strong upward momentum, with a target potentially extending towards the $104,000 region, aligning with previous highs. The presence of CPI (Consumer Price Index) data release today adds an external factor of volatility. Economic data like CPI can significantly impact the market sentiment, especially in crypto, as it reflects inflation levels and can influence risk-on or risk-off market behavior. Traders should exercise caution and consider these key factors Monitor the wedge breakout closely. Await a confirmed 4-hour candle close above $97,200 before entering a long position. Use proper risk management, as the market is expected to be volatile due to the CPI data. BTC is on the verge of a potential breakout. However, external factors like CPI data can amplify volatility. Wait for confirmation and trade cautiously.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.P
by wolfchemist
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.15.2024🔮 📅 Wed Jan 15 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Core CPI m/m: 0.3% (prev: 0.3%) 📊 CPI m/m: 0.4% (prev: 0.3%) 📊 CPI y/y: 2.9% (prev: 2.7%) 📊 Empire State Manufacturing Index: 2.7 (prev: 0.2) ⏰ 10:30am 🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories: -1.0M 💡 Market Insights: 📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: On a gap up, we will hold and run higher. Weekly will pin it down. 📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: Pullbacks here and there but will get bought up. 📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: Everyone will eat up this drop; definitely look to position bullish here...again. #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SP:SPXLong
by PogChan
BOJ to discuss rate hike, yen dips lowerThe yen remains calm and is lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 157.98, up 0.34% on the day. There are no tier-1 events out of Japan this week and the yen is having a relatively quiet week. That could change with the release of US inflation on Wednesday. Headline CPI is expected to rise to 2.9% y/y in December from 2.7% in November, while core CPI is expected to remain at 3.3% y/y for a third straight month. Inflation reports have had significant impact on rate expectations but the December inflation rate might not be all that significant, as expectations of a rate cut have fallen in recent weeks. Since the December meeting, the Fed has tried to dampen rate-cut expectations and the market is not expecting a rate cut in the first quarter of 2025. The money markets have currently priced in a quarter-point cut at the Jan. 29 meeting at below 3%  and at the March meeting at around 20%. With inflation largely under control and a solid labor market, there is little reason for the Fed to cut rates in the near term. The Bank of Japan tends not to telegraph its rate plans, leaving investors in the dark and on the hunt for clues about the central bank's rate plans. The uncertainty adds to the drama ahead of BoJ meetings and means that each meeting should be treated as a market-mover. BoJ's Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said on Tuesday that the BoJ would discuss a rate hike at the Jan. 24 meeting. Himino didn't say what decision he expected the BoJ to make but reiterated Governor's Ueda recent comments that wage growth was solid and that there was a lot of uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's trade policies. USD/JPY tested resistance at 158.13 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 158.49 There is support at 157.78 and 157.42
by yesfish
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.13.2024🔮 📅 Tue Jan 14 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Core PPI m/m: 0.2% (prev: 0.2%) 📊 PPI m/m: 0.4% (prev: 0.4%) 📅 Wed Jan 15 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Core CPI m/m: 0.2% (prev: 0.3%) 📊 CPI m/m: 0.3% (prev: 0.3%) 📊 CPI y/y: 2.9% (prev: 2.7%) 📊 Empire State Manufacturing Index: -0.3 (prev: 0.2%) ⏰ 10:30am 🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories: -1.0M 📅 Thu Jan 16 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Core Retail Sales m/m: 0.5% (prev: 0.2%) 📊 Retail Sales m/m: 0.6% (prev: 0.7%) 📊 Unemployment Claims: 210K (prev: 201K) 📊 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: -7.0 (prev: -16.4) 📅 Fri Jan 17 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Building Permits: 1.46M (prev: 1.49M) 💡 Market Insights: 📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: On a gap up, we will hold and run higher. 📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: The markets will get a few days of a bullish run. 📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: Everyone will eat up this drop; definitely look to position bullish here. #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SP:SPXLong
by PogChan
$GBIRYY -U.K CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY (November/2024) source: Office for National Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the UK edged up for a second month to 2.6% in November 2024 from 2.3% in October, matching forecasts. It is the highest inflation rate in eight months, with prices rising at a faster pace for recreation and culture (3.6% vs 3% in October), mostly admission fees to live music events and theaters and computer games; housing and utilities (3% vs 2.9%), particularly actual rents for housing; and food and non-alcoholic beverages (2% vs 1.9%). In addition, transport prices fell much less (-0.9% vs -1.9%) as upward effects from motor fuels and second-hand cars were partially offset by a downward effect from air fares. Meanwhile, services inflation was steady at 5%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI edged up 0.1%, less than 0.6% in October and matching forecasts. The core CPI rose 3.5% on the year from 3.3% in October but below forecasts of 3.6%. On the month, core prices stalled.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
XAUUSD - gold will be welcomed by the Federal Reserve!Gold is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1H time frame and is trading in its descending channel. If we maintain the drawn channel, we can witness the continuation of gold's decline and limited visibility of the bottom of the channel. Within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. If it returns to the ceiling of the channel, it is possible to sell within the supply zone. 1. UBS Gold Forecast: UBS has projected that gold prices will reach $2,900. This prediction is based on factors such as the rising U.S. debt, strong demand from central banks, and declining interest rates. The institution also anticipates that U.S. inflation will decrease to 3% by the end of 2024, 2.6% by the end of 2025, and 2.5% throughout 2027. These figures are significantly higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, suggesting that persistent inflation may pose a significant obstacle to the Fed’s efforts to control it. 2. U.S. CPI Report: The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November highlighted the persistence of inflationary pressures. However, the details of the report appeared somewhat reassuring. CIBC Bank predicts that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates by 0.25% in its December meeting, though subsequent rate cuts may be delayed due to the economy’s continued growth. 3. Ray Dalio on Gold: Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, referred to Bitcoin as a hard asset and stated that he prefers Bitcoin and gold over debt-based assets. He expressed concerns about a potential global debt crisis and emphasized the importance of shifting investments toward hard assets. Dalio pointed to unprecedented levels of debt in major countries such as the U.S. and China, deeming these debt levels unsustainable.Speaking at a financial conference in Abu Dhabi, he remarked, “It is impossible for these countries to avoid a debt crisis in the coming years, which will likely lead to a significant depreciation of their currencies.” 4. Dalio’s Evolving Stance on Bitcoin: Previously, Dalio believed that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin would not achieve the success many had hoped for. However, in recent years, he has become a prominent advocate of Bitcoin. In 2022, Dalio suggested allocating up to 2% of an investment portfolio to Bitcoin and gold as a reasonable strategy to combat inflation. He also reiterated his preference for gold over Bitcoin while emphasizing the importance of portfolio diversification. 5. Peter Schiff’s Warning on Bitcoin: Peter Schiff, a prominent gold advocate, has warned that creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the U.S. could have negative consequences. On December 9, Schiff posted on the social media platform X, suggesting that the Biden administration should sell all Bitcoin currently held by the U.S. government before leaving office. He stated, “This move would not only help reduce the 2024 budget deficit but also put an end to all the nonsense about establishing a ‘strategic reserve’ of Bitcoin, which is detrimental.”
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
Gold Supported by Fundamentals, Testing Key Technical ResistanceTechnical Analysis Gold is trading at $2,719, approaching a critical resistance level at $2,735 (Fib 0.786). A breakout above this resistance could pave the way for further upside toward $2,743 and $2,758, marking significant levels for long-term trend continuation. On the daily chart, the price has held firmly above the 50-day SMA, supported by a bullish RSI, indicating the potential for continued strength. - Key Resistances : - $2,735 (Fib 0.786). - $2,743 and $2,758. - Key Supports : - $2,700 (short-term support). - $2,693 (Fib 0.618). In the short term, gold has encountered resistance at $2,720 and shows signs of a possible pullback. The RSI in the overbought zone suggests that a correction toward $2,700 and potentially $2,693 is likely before any continuation to the upside. --- Fundamental Analysis Gold prices remain near two-week highs, supported by geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and expectations for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy. Markets are now pricing a 95% chance of a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed next week , per the CME FedWatch tool, with a further 22% chance of another cut in January. Key Developments Driving Gold: 1. Chinese Central Bank Gold Buying: The People's Bank of China resumed gold purchases in November, adding 160,000 fine troy ounces to its reserves. This significant move has bolstered global gold demand and added upward momentum to prices. 2. Middle East Geopolitical Tensions: The collapse of the Syrian government and subsequent military actions by Israel have increased investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. 3. US Inflation Data (CPI): November's CPI data showed a 2.7% YoY increase, aligning with expectations and reinforcing the case for rate cuts. The core inflation rate remained stable at 3.3%. These figures have kept gold's bullish momentum intact. --- Upcoming Data to Watch The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the US, scheduled for release tomorrow, will provide further clues about inflation trends. - Forecasts: - Core PPI m/m: 0.2% (previous: 0.3%). - PPI m/m: 0.2% (previous: 0.2%). - Unemployment Claims: 221K (previous: 224K). Potential Scenarios for PPI: 1. Stronger-than-expected PPI (above 0.2%): Higher PPI could indicate persistent inflationary pressures, potentially boosting the US Dollar and pressuring gold prices lower. In this case, gold may test short-term supports at $2,700 or $2,693. 2. Weaker-than-expected PPI (below 0.2%): A weaker PPI could further strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts, weakening the US Dollar and providing additional upside for gold. A breakout above $2,735 would open the path toward $2,743 and $2,758. --- Conclusion Gold remains strong in the long term, with $2,735 as a critical resistance level. A breakout above this level could trigger a rally to $2,743 and $2,758. However, in the short term, the price is expected to correct to $2,700 or $2,693 before resuming its uptrend. The upcoming PPI report is pivotal and will shape market sentiment ahead of the Fed's rate decision next week. Recommendation Monitor the PPI report and Fed commentary closely. A pullback to $2,700 may offer a buying opportunity, with targets set at $2,743 and $2,758 if bullish momentum persists.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by uPaSKaL
16
XAUUSD - Gold waiting for the inflation index!Gold is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If we maintain the drawn blue upward trend line, we can witness the continued rise of gold and the limited visibility of the channel ceiling. Within the zone of supply, we can sell with appropriate risk reward. Returning below this trend line paves the way for gold to fall and you can buy within the zone of demand. According to a report by Bank of America, gold remains on track to reach $3,000 per ounce next year. However, investors need to be patient, as the current price consolidation phase may continue through the first half of the year. Michael Widmer, Head of Metals Research at Bank of America, stated during the bank’s 2025 Outlook webinar: “Currently, gold is stuck in an environment where there’s nothing tangible to draw investors back into the market.” The second-largest U.S. bank has highlighted that gold faces significant challenges in the upcoming year, including weak demand from China and pressures on Western investors, who are dealing with the prospect of higher bond yields and a strengthening U.S. dollar. The report noted, “The Trump administration is likely to pursue a mixed economic policy that, through stronger growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and a stronger dollar, could limit investors’ willingness to increase gold purchases in the short term.” Bank of America strategists predict that Trump’s economic policies, such as potential trade tariffs and similar measures, may force the Federal Reserve to slow down its pace of interest rate cuts in 2025. Analysts expect only two rate cuts next year, one in March and the other in June. Despite these challenges, precious metals experts believe that gold and silver will remain well-supported in the coming year as economic uncertainties and geopolitical turmoil continue to boost demand for safe-haven assets. According to a recent Reuters poll of economists, 56 out of 97 respondents forecast that the Federal Reserve will lower its interest rate to 3.50–3.75% or lower by the end of 2025. Furthermore, 93 out of 103 economists surveyed predict that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points during its December 18 meeting, bringing the rate to a range of 4.50–4.25%. Investors are now focusing on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to have increased by 0.3% in November. This data could shape expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s 2025 policy stance. Kyle Rodda, a financial markets analyst at Capital, commented: “An expected CPI number essentially gives the Federal Reserve the green light to cut interest rates next week, and this could be the catalyst that gold has been waiting for.” Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs views the recent decline in gold prices as merely a fluctuation and expects the metal to resume its upward trajectory soon. Goldman Sachs cited the following reasons for its outlook: • Accommodative monetary policies • Central bank purchases of gold • A return of investors to the gold market The bank also pointed out that during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent freezing of Russian assets by Western nations, gold emerged as an attractive alternative to the U.S. dollar. Many central banks around the world turned to gold to diversify their reserves. Goldman Sachs stated: “We do not expect central bank demand for gold to decline. With the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates, investors will also reenter the market. We project that gold prices will reach $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025.”
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
GBPUSD - Dollar, waiting for the release of the CPI index?!The GBPUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. The continuation of the trend of this currency pair will depend on the maintenance or failure of this channel. If the upward trend continues due to the release of today's economic data, we can see a supply zone and sell within that zone with a suitable risk reward. In case of channel failure and downward correction, you can buy this currency pair within the specified demand zone. According to a new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, consumer inflation expectations in the United States showed some changes in November compared to October. One-year inflation expectations rose to 3%, up from 2.9% last month. Additionally, three-year inflation expectations reached 2.6%, slightly higher than the 2.5% recorded in October. Five-year expectations also edged up from 2.8% to 2.9%. The Federal Reserve’s survey indicates that participants anticipate a decline in costs for gasoline, rent, and food over the coming year. Expectations about future government borrowing have also dropped significantly. The report further highlights that many respondents are optimistic about their financial situation improving next year. This positive outlook has reached its highest level since February 2020. Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, has warned that Donald Trump’s tariff plans could disrupt prior efforts to curb inflation and lead to higher consumer prices. Speaking at the Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council, she stressed that broad tariffs could increase costs for American consumers and businesses dependent on imports. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has performed impressively this year, supported by strong economic conditions. However, Morgan Stanley analysts, including David Adams, caution that holding long positions on the dollar may now be a mistake as the currency faces downside risks. Bloomberg reports that while efforts to combat inflation have been largely successful, lingering price pressures could undermine confidence in further interest rate cuts. Reuters has reported that the Bank of England intends to maintain its cautious stance and keep interest rates steady. Simultaneously, the European Commission has advised EU member states against granting the UK greater access to the bloc’s electricity market. This recommendation comes despite warnings from the energy sector about higher costs for consumers and slower progress toward green energy transitions. In a policy document outlining the EU’s stance on future negotiations with the UK, the European Commission emphasized that the principle of “limited choice” should also apply to electricity trade. The document noted that the UK’s decision not to rejoin the single market has restricted deeper cooperation in the energy sector, and partial participation in this market would neither benefit the EU nor align with the European Council’s guidelines. In October, British and European energy companies called for a revision of post-Brexit energy trade arrangements to establish a “green energy hub” in the North Sea. They warned that the current framework is not only inefficient but also jeopardizes shared commitments to generate 310 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2050. On Monday, the U.S. and UK announced a fresh wave of sanctions targeting what they described as the illicit gold trade. The UK claimed that this trade finances Vladimir Putin’s war efforts in Ukraine and fuels corruption. The British government froze the assets of four individuals accused of gold smuggling, as well as another individual who had purchased over $300 million worth of Russian gold, generating revenue for the Russian government. In a statement, the UK’s Foreign Office said: “Illicit gold trade is an attack on the legitimate trade of a valuable commodity, fueling corruption, undermining the rule of law, and enabling human rights abuses, including child labor.”
Long
by Ali_PSND
GER 40 Trade Log GER40 4H Long Setup Trade Idea: - Long in the 4H FVG post-CPI wick grab, following a potential exhaustion of the ongoing short setup. Confluence: - FVG Zone: Price retraces into the 4H Fair Value Gap, providing a strong discounted entry point. - Liquidity Grab: CPI wick likely cleared liquidity below, setting the stage for a bullish reversal. - Dynamic Support: 4H Kijun aligns with FVG, reinforcing the zone as a high-probability support. Risk-Reward: - Tight stop-loss below the 4H FVG. - Targeting 1:2+ RRR with initial profit-taking at 20,400 and extended targets toward 20,500 . Quick Take: If CPI triggers downside liquidity sweep, this setup offers a clean bullish reversal opportunity. Watch for confirmation before entry!
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by Fondera