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After CAN CPIs, it's time to prepare for BoC rate decisionLooking at the CPI numbers that came out, we are noticing some weakness in the CAD right now. This weakness may spill over into tomorrow's trading, as the BoC is expected to keep the rates unchaged. Let's dig in! FX_IDC:USDCAD MARKETSCOM:USDCAD Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom
$USIRYY -United States CPI (March/2025)ECONOMICS:USIRYY (March/2025) source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the US eased for a second consecutive month to 2.4% in March 2025, the lowest since September, down from 2.8% in February, and below forecasts of 2.6%. Prices for gasoline (-9.8% vs -3.1%) and fuel oil (-7.6% vs -5.1%) fell more while natural gas prices soared (9.4% vs 6%). Inflation also slowed for shelter (4% vs 4.2%), used cars and trucks (0.6% vs 0.8%), and transportation (3.1% vs 6%) while prices were unchanged for new vehicles (vs -0.3%). On the other hand, inflation accelerated for food (3% vs 2.6%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI decreased 0.1%, the first fall since May 2020, compared to expectations of a 0.1% gain. The index for energy fell 2.4%, as a 6.3% decline in gasoline more than offset increases in electricity (0.9%) and natural gas (3.6%). Meanwhile, annual core inflation eased to 2.8%, the lowest since March 2021, and below forecasts of 3%. On a monthly basis, the core CPI edged up 0.1%, below expectations of 0.3%.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$CNIRYY -China's CPI (March/2025)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY March/2025 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China's consumer prices fell by 0.1% year-on-year in March 2025, missing market expectations of a 0.1% increase and marking the second consecutive month of drop, as the ongoing trade dispute with the U.S. threatens to exert further downward pressure on prices. Still, the latest drop was significantly milder than February’s 0.7% fall, supported by a smaller decline in food prices as pork prices accelerated and fresh fruit costs rebounded. Meanwhile, non-food prices rose by 0.2%, reversing a slight dip of 0.1% in February, driven by increases in housing (0.1% vs 0.1%), healthcare (0.1% vs 0.2%), and education (0.8% vs -0.5%), despite a continued decline in transport costs (-2.6% vs -2.5%). Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose 0.5% in March, rebounding from a 0.1% decrease in February. On a monthly basis, the CPI declined by 0.4%, a steeper fall than a 0.2% drop in February, marking the second straight month of contraction.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Will 3 Times Be The Charm For GBPUSD??We can see FX:GBPUSD retrace a tad further up to the Volume Imbalance that was created over the weekend of April 4th - 7th. After Price made its High @ 1.3207, it was immediately rejected back down below the Past Level of Support that is now showing signs of Resistance! - Following that Higher High not only resulted in a Lower Low but also sent the RSI under 50 into Bearish Territory! Now in the ICT Methodology of Volume Imbalances, Price is likely to Test or Fill the Imbalance, then once satisfied, has a high potential to turn the opposite direction. Now a Pullback to Fill the Imbalance would land Price right at the 38.2% Fibonacci Level @ 1.28984 where if Bulls are unable to push Price back above, would be an excellent Shorting Opportunity for Bears to overcome. - RSI is now below the 50 suggesting Bulls have lost steam and strengthens the potential for more downside to occur but that would call for a Break and Retest Scenario on the Rising Support. Fundamentally, the Federal Reserve will be releasing the CPI y/y and m/m results where analysts believe there to be a .3% decrease in inflation forecasting a 2.5% CPI for March from the previous 2.8% for February. Given this, the FOMC " do not plan to come to rescue Trump with rate cuts" and insist that all the Tariff pressure will actually be a reasoning for Inflation to Rise! So if CPI ends up printing Hotter than Expected (Higher), we could see a renewed strength in the USD.
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
$EUIRYY -Europe CPI (March/2025)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY March/2025 source: EUROSTAT - Annual inflation in the Euro Area eased to 2.2% in March 2025, the lowest rate since November 2024 and slightly below market expectations of 2.3%. Services inflation slowed to a 33-month low (3.4% vs. 3.7% in February), while energy costs declined (-0.7% vs. 0.2%). However, inflation remained steady for both non-energy industrial goods (0.6%) and processed food, alcohol & tobacco (2.6%), and unprocessed food prices surged (4.1% vs. 3.0%). Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to 2.4%, slightly below market forecasts of 2.5% and marking its lowest level since January 2022. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.6% in March, following a 0.4% advance in February.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate (February/2025)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY February/2025 source: Office for National Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the UK fell to 2.8% in February 2025 from 3% in January, below market expectations of 2.9%, though in line with the Bank of England's forecast. The largest downward contribution came from prices of clothing which declined for the first time since October 2021 (-0.6% vs 1.8%), led by garments for women and children's clothing. Inflation also eased in recreation and culture (3.4% vs. 3.8%), particularly in live music admission and recording media, as well as in housing and utilities (1.9% vs. 2.1%), including actual rents for housing (7.4% vs. 7.8%). In contrast, food inflation was unchanged at 3.3% and prices rose faster for transport (1.8% vs 1.7%) and restaurants and hotels (3.4% vs 3.3%). Meanwhile, services inflation held steady at 5%. The annual core inflation rate declined to 3.5% from 3.7%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI increased 0.4%, rebounding from a 0.1% decline but falling short of the expected 0.5% increase.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
How to Track Inflation NumberHow to track inflation number? When the Fed mentions their 2% inflation target, are they referring to the commonly published CPI that we often read about, or are they referring to Core CPI or Core PCE? 10-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIACLong
by konhow
1
17/03/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $85,306.40 Last weeks low: $76,622.98 Midpoint: $80,964.69 It's FOMC week again! Last week it was CPI week and inflation numbers came in under forecast signaling the Tradfi market sell-off and implementation of tariffs have at least had a positive impact on the consumer price index, a 2.8% print 0.1% lower than forecast. As this relates to FOMC the forecast is a non mover with interest rates staying at 4.5%. However this does not necessarily mean that FOMC will be a non event in terms of the markets, volatility is always expected and with a suspected Trump insider opening a $380m 40x short position on BTC with a liquidation price of $86,600. I expect this price to be hit at some point this week purely because CT is targeting this account that has had a perfect 8/8 trade record to stop hunt it, I think FOMC could proved the volatility to do it. The general structure of BTC as a whole despite this stop hunt narrative is bearish, after losing $91k support and a retest confirming the level as new resistance structurally it makes sense to revisit FWB:73K to retest it as support. This would be horrible for the broader altcoin market that has suffered greatly so far this year but it would eliminate the need to fill the FVG in the future. This week I am keeping a close eye on that stop hunt and FOMC as I feel that will dictate if we retest $91K or $73K.
by ProR35
2
BITCOIN - WHERE ARE WE? When zooming out and looking at the Bitcoin chart, despite how crazy the market has been in recent weeks it comes down to a simple market structure with three separate clearly definable ranges: RED RANGE (Accumulation) - From FEB '24 until the US election BTC chopped in primarily the top half of a range with five separate midpoint retests with progressively shallower rallies that eventually broke out with a catalyst from the political world. BLUE RANGE (Expansion) - After a 10 month accumulation range the next phase in the bull cycle was expansion, a rally above ATH and into price discovery. An extremely thin inefficiency rally. Now price currently is at the midpoint of this range and despite the geo-political waterfall of bad news BTC has held up better than I had expected given that usually a rally that goes straight up has no support levels on the way back down. The chart does suggest a retest at $73,700 at some point before deciding which direction to go in after that. GREEN ZONE (Distribution) - For the last 3 months Bitcoins price has been extremely volatile, bouncing between $91-108K, the range containing price perfectly with weekly retests of the range bottom and a swing fail of the range high. That SFP set off the beginning of BTCs sell-off eventually breaking through the bottom and back into the blue range. With Bitcoin at the midpoint of the middle range it's a perfect time to have a data release in CPI, A volatile news event that can be a catalyst for a larger market move and with Tradfi selling off, this CPI is the most important of the Trump administrations term so far: CPI DAY PREVIOUS: 3.0% FORECAST: 2.9% ACTUAL: ?? Bullish - sub 2.8% print. At least the market sell-off is having a positive effect on inflation and isn't painful for no reason. BTC reclaims blue midpoint with a view to retest blue high. Bearish - 2.9% or higher. Market sell-off hasn't has an immediate effect on inflation so the sell-off is bad in all aspects, except for the Trump admin moving closer to their wish of a weaker dollar and lower interest rates. FWB:73K blue range bottom retest on the cards.
by ProR35
1
Canadian dollar calm ahead of BoC, US inflationThe Canadian dollar posted gains earlier but couldn't consolidate.  In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4439, up 0.03% on the day. It's decision day at the Bank of Canada, which is widely expected to lower rates by 25 basis points. This would lower the cash rate to 2.75%, its lowest level since July 2022.  The BoC has been aggressive and has lowered rates at five straight meetings, chopping 200 basis points during that time. The economy remains weak despite the sharp drop in interest rates and the central bank plans to continue lowering rates in order to boost economic growth.  The BoC finds itself in a difficult position as far as rate policy.   The labor market is showing weakness, with almost no job growth in February, while at the same time inflation remains sticky, above the BoC's 2% target.  Throw into the mix the Trump administration's tariffs on Canada, and the situation has become fluid.  The specter of a long trade war between Canada and the US would be disastrous for Canada and has complicated matters for the BoC. In the US, inflation has been contained but remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.  Headline CPI for February is expected to ease to 0.3% m/m, down from 0.5% in January, and down to 2.9% y/y from 3.0%.  The core rate is projected to drop to 0.3% m/m from 0.4% and to 3.2% from 3.3%. If the CPI estimates prove to be on target, it would  point to little movement in inflation and investors may feel relieved that Trump's tariffs policies have not yet raised inflation.  The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates at next week's meeting but it's unclear what happens after that, with the chances of a May cut at around 50/50. USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.4445.  Above, there is resistance at 1.4511 1.4370 and 1.4304 are the next support levels
by OANDA
$CNIRYY - China's CPI DefelationaryECONOMICS:CNIRYY -0.7% (February/2025) source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China's consumer prices dropped by 0.7% yoy in February 2025, surpassing market estimates of a 0.5% decline and reversing a 0.5% rise in the prior month. This was the first consumer deflation since January 2024, amid fading seasonal demand following the Spring Festival in late January. Food prices fell the most in 13 months (-3.3% vs 0.4% in January), dragged by a steep decrease in cost of fresh vegetables (-12.6% vs 2.4%) and a sharp slowdown in pork prices (4.1% vs 13.8%). Meanwhile, non-food prices edged lower (-0.1% vs 0.5%), as increases in housing (0.1% vs 0.1%) and healthcare (0.2% vs 0.7%) were offset by declines in education (-0.5% vs 1.7%) and transport (-2.5% vs -0.6%). Core inflation, excluding volatile food and fuel prices, fell 0.1% in February, in contrast to a 0.6% rise in January. Monthly, the CPI fell 0.2%, shifting from January's 11-month top of a 0.7% rise and marking the first drop since last November. This fall was also steeper than consensus of a 0.1% decrease.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
GBPUSD Holds Below 0.618 Fibonacci RetracementFollowing the DXY's decline, the British pound surged back above the trendline connecting lower highs between 2014 to 2021, aligning with a key resistance at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the downtrend between the September 2024 high (1.3434) and the January 2025 low (1.2099) at 1.2945. Current Market Setup: RSI on the 3-day time frame is now overbought, aligning with the inverted head and shoulders target formed by the RSI trend near oversold levels, reinforcing reversal potential. Further downside risks persist, with market sentiment hinging on growth data, trade war developments, and US inflation figures. Key Levels to Watch: A decisive close above 1.2850 could pave the way toward 1.3020, 1.3160, and 1.34. Failure to hold gains could trigger a pullback toward key support zones at 1.28, 1.27, and 1.2570. Key Events This Week: US CPI UK GDP Trade War Developments - Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREXcom
10/03/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $93,745.25 Last weeks low: $80,029.90 Midpoint: $86,887.58 Last week in crypto saw the first White House Digital Assets Summit. An event that only as recently as the last bull cycle we could only dream of taking place. In the summit that hosted the biggest names in the space a vow was made by the US Gov never to sell their BTC, to establish stablecoin regulatory clarity and to stockpile various US made altcoins. A historic moment but how did that relate to the chart? Well BTC dropped 14.6% from weekly high set at the beginning of the week to weekly low set at the end of the week. The most important aspect is how this now looks on the higher time frames, the once strong support level of $91K has now been confirmed as new resistance as BTC tried several times to reclaim it and in the end fell away. This now puts BTC in the FVG area from $91-73K. With no real support until the $73,000 level this is knife catching territory and with the SP:SPX rolling over too I would need a lot more evidence that BTC will turn around before going long with any real size. This week I anticipate further sell-off, now I would be happy to be proven wrong on that however it does look like we are heading towards FWB:73K where I would like to see buyers stepping up and start to dominate the orderbooks. Structurally that would fill a large inefficiency area with an eye to bounce off support and move back towards currently levels ~ GETTEX:82K as that would be the midpoint of the FVG although that is a few steps in the future. CPI takes place this week and so volatility may be expected but unless the result is wildly different to the forecast numbers the whipsaw PA should level out fairly neutral. Invalidation on this idea would be a successful reclaim of $91K which is previous mini range low & 4H 200 EMA resistance.
by ProR35
DOLLAR GAINS BUYER AMID NFP BAD DATA??Dollar seems on hold in it's 2.618 fibonacci support after NFP data released. Will it go higher next week? I see dollar still waiting next data release. I mention JOLTS Job Opening & CPI which both of them crucial in current context of US macro-economy. Strong job opening & CPI means investor and retail trader must be no worries about US macro-economic despite concern about trade war. Otherwise, weak job opening & CPI means labor market and inflation continue cooling down. It will push THE FED to give clear path about their plan for future Interest Rate. So, dollar could make sideways movement (or even gain buyer) but overall still in bearish momentum. Dollar still driven by concern of trade war and if job opening comes weaker than expected, it could gives more power to seller.
TVC:DXYShort
by vicariuzchrist
$JPIRYY -Japan's Inflation Rate (CPI)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 4% (January/2025) source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - The annual inflation rate in Japan climbed to 4.0% in January 2025 from 3.6% in the prior month, marking the highest reading since January 2023. Food prices rose at the steepest pace in 15 months (7.8% vs 6.4% in December), with fresh vegetables and fresh food contributing the most to the upturn. Further, electricity prices (18.0% vs 18.7%) and gas cost (6.8% vs 7.8%) remained elevated with the absence of energy subsidies since May 2024. Additional upward pressure also came from housing (0.8% vs 0.8%), clothing (2.8% vs 2.9%), transport (2.0% vs 1.1%), furniture and household items (3.4% vs 3.0%), healthcare (1.8% vs 1.7%), recreation (2.6% vs 4.0%), and miscellaneous items (1.4% vs 1.1%). In contrast, prices continued to fall for communication (-0.3% vs -2.1%) and education (-1.1% vs -1.0%). The core inflation rate rose to a 19-month high of 3.2%, up from 3.0% in December and topping consensus of 3.1%. Monthly, the CPI increased by 0.5%, after December's 14-month top of 0.6% rise.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
News TradingLet’s talk about news trading in Forex . While news trading is extremely lucrative it’s one of the most risky things a trader can do and experience. News and data cause extreme volatility in the market and as we always say “volatility can be your friend or your enemy” . Let’s take a deeper dive into news trading, which news and data affect the TVC:DXY precious metals such as OANDA:XAUUSD and other dollar related currency pairs. We will also cover having the right mindset for trading the news. 1. Understanding News Trading in Forex News trading is based on the idea that significant economic data releases and geopolitical events can cause sharp price fluctuations in forex markets. We as traders, aim to profit from these sudden price movements by positioning ourselves before or immediately after the news hits the market. However, due to market unpredictability, it requires a strategic plan, risk management, and quick decision making. 2. What to Do in News Trading 1. Know the Key Economic Events – Monitor economic calendars to stay updated on high-impact news releases. The most influential events include: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – A report on U.S. job growth that heavily influences the U.S. dollar. Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Measures inflation, impacting interest rate decisions and currency valuation. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meetings – Determines U.S. monetary policy and interest rates, affecting global markets. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – A key indicator of economic growth, influencing currency strength. Central Bank Statements – Speeches by Fed Chair or ECB President can create large market moves. 2. Use an Economic Calendar – Websites like Forex Factory, Investing.com, or DailyFX provide real-time updates on economic events. 3. Understand Market Expectations vs. Reality – Markets often price in expectations before the news is released. If actual data deviates significantly from forecasts, a strong price movement may occur. 4. Trade with a Plan – Whether you are trading pre-news or post-news, have clear entry and exit strategies, stop-loss levels, and a defined risk-to-reward ratio. 5. Monitor Market Sentiment – Pay attention to how traders are reacting. Sentiment can drive price action more than the actual data. 6. Focus on Major Currency Pairs – News trading is most effective with liquid pairs like FX:EURUSD , FX:GBPUSD , FX:USDJPY , and OANDA:USDCAD because they have tighter spreads and high volatility. 3. What NOT to Do in News Trading 1. Don’t Trade Without a Stop-Loss – Extreme volatility can cause sudden reversals. A stop-loss helps prevent catastrophic losses. 2. Avoid Overleveraging – Leverage magnifies profits but also increases risk. Many traders blow accounts due to excessive leverage. 3. Don’t Chase the Market – Prices may spike and reverse within seconds. Jumping in late can lead to losses. 4. Avoid Trading Without Understanding News Impact – Not all economic releases cause the same level of volatility. Study past reactions before trading. 5. Don’t Rely Solely on News Trading – Long-term success requires a balanced strategy incorporating technical analysis and risk management. 4. The Unpredictability of News Trading News trading is highly unpredictable. Even when a report meets expectations, market reactions can be erratic due to: Market Sentiment Shifts – Traders might focus on different aspects of a report than expected. Pre-Pricing Effects – If a news event was anticipated, the market might have already moved, causing a ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ reaction. Liquidity Issues – Spreads widen during major news events, increasing trading costs and slippage. Unexpected Statements or Revisions – Central banks or government agencies can make last-minute statements that shake the market. 5. How News Affects Forex, Gold, and the U.S. Dollar 1. U.S. Dollar (USD) – The USD reacts strongly to NFP, CPI, FOMC statements, and GDP reports. Strong economic data strengthens the dollar, while weak data weakens it. 2. Gold (XAU/USD) – Gold is an inflation hedge and a safe-haven asset. It often moves inversely to the USD and rises during economic uncertainty. 3. Stock Market & Risk Sentiment – Positive economic news can boost stocks, while negative reports may trigger risk aversion, benefiting safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF. 6. The Right Mindset for News Trading 1. Accept That Volatility is a Double-Edged Sword – Big moves can mean big profits, but also big losses. 2. Control Emotions – Fear and greed can lead to impulsive decisions. Stick to your strategy. 3. Risk Management is Key – Never risk more than a small percentage of your capital on a single trade. 4. Adaptability – Be prepared to change your approach if market conditions shift unexpectedly. 5. Patience and Experience Matter – The best traders wait for the right setups rather than forcing trades. Thank you for your support! FxPocket
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by FxPocket
4
Hot Inflation & What to Watch Next - 14/02/2514th of February 2025 •XRP and BNB leading, as Bitcoin trades flat in the last seven days. •Headline inflation metrics in the US land above expectations. •Impactful data point to watch heading into the end of February. --- A big week of headlines and events, particularly out of the US, have netted very little change in Bitcoin’s price. Bitcoin is down 0.1% at the time of writing in the last seven-days, while altcoins such as XRP and BNB are showing double-digit gains. Bitcoin has struggled to make new year-to-date highs in the current state of global conditions. In contrast, global indices in the UK (FTSE100) and China (CSI300) have continued to make new year-to-date highs Mixed Messages & Above Expected Results Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned earlier this week at a senate banking enquiry that the current state of monetary policy does not require easing conditions, as the economy remains strong and the 2% target for inflation is key. However, he has referenced that unexpected moves in the labour market or a significant cooling of inflation could change the committee’s mind. “If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we can ease policy accordingly.” On this point, headline metrics for inflation land above expectations this week. On Tuesday, Consumer Price Index (CPI) landed above expectations at 3.0%, rising 0.1% from the previous month. Overnight the Producers Price Index (PPI) landed above expectations at 3.5% year-on-year. This figure remains unchanged from the previous month and represents the inflation burden on producers in the US. Key data to come On the last day of February the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data will provide further clarity towards the state of monetary policy heading into next month. PCE is the leading indicator used by the policy committee to measure inflation. Fear and greed currently reads 40 – neutral. Bitcoin Analysis The price of Bitcoin is currently trading within the January high and low range, and on the Bollinger band we are entering a period where the upper and bottom channel is compressing. Bullish Scenario In the coming days, price may see a sharp move higher as the Bollinger Bands tighten. If bulls regain control and reclaim the monthly open, they could push toward last month’s high. Bearish Scenario We could also with this compression in the Bollinger Bands, see volatility moving price to the downside. This may result in prices heading towards the January low. DISCLAIMER: The information is for general information purposes only. It is not intended as legal, financial or investment advice and should not be construed or relied on as such. Before making any commitment of a legal or financial nature you should seek advice from a qualified and registered legal practitioner or financial or investment adviser. No material contained within this website should be construed or relied upon as providing recommendations in relation to any legal or financial product.
by PHundal
2