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EUR/USD gains ground as eurozone CPI dipsEUR/USD has edged higher in the European session and trading at 1.0890, up 0.18% on the day. The euro had a strong day on Thursday, gaining 0.50%. Inflation continues to fall in the eurozone, although the drop was very modest. CPI eased to 2.8% y/y in January, down from 2.9% in December and in line with the market estimate. Monthly, CPI declined by 0.4% in January, after a 0.2% gain in December, matching the market estimate. Food and energy prices decelerated in January and were the drivers behind the modest dip in inflation. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy and is a better gauge of inflation trends, dropped from 3.4% to 3.3% y/y but was above the market estimate of 3.2%. This could be a source of concern for policy makers at the European Central Bank, as the core rate remains well above the ECB's 2% target. There are concerns about inflation risks to the upside, with higher transport prices due to attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the Israel-Hamas war. The ECB remains cautious and ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that the Middle East crisis was an "upside risk" to inflation. Lagarde said this week that the eurozone was "on a disinflationary trend" and that the ECB would be cutting rates. So in which direction is the ECB headed? Lagarde may be signalling that although she is on board for rate cuts, she remains concerned about inflation risks to the upside and may take her time before starting to chop rates. The ECB has kept rates unchanged at 4.0% for four straight months, and the markets are eyeing April or June as the dates for an initial rate cut. All eyes are on the US nonfarm payroll report later today. Earlier this week, the ADP employment report showed a drop in January, from a downwardly revised 158,000 to 107,000. The ADP report isn't considered a reliable guide for nonfarm payrolls, but the markets are expecting NFP to decline as well. The consensus estimate stands at 180,000, compared to 180,000 in December. If the release is wide of the estimate, we could see a strong reaction from the US dollar. EUR/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.0905. Above, there is resistance at 1.0938 There is support at 1.0810 and 1.0748
by OANDA
EUR/USD gives up gains after soft German CPIEUR/USD showed little movement earlier but that changed after German CPI was softer than expected. The euro gained 0.40% in the aftermath of the inflation report but has given back about half of those gains. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0857, up 0.11%. Germany's inflation rate dropped to 2.9% y/y in January, down sharply from 3.7% in December and just below the market estimate of 3.0%. The reading, a preliminary estimate, was the lowest rate since June 2021. The drop was driven by a slowdown in goods inflation, with energy and food prices both decelerating. Services prices, however, rose slightly. Monthly, inflation ticked higher to 0.2%, compared to 0.1% in December and matching the market estimate of 0.2%. Inflation continues to fall in the eurozone's largest economy, as the ECB's steep hike in interest rates has dampened inflationary pressures. High interest rates have also cooled the German economy, as GDP declined by 0.2% q/q. This follows the Q3 reading of -0.3%, which means that the economy is technically in a recession with two straight quarters of negative growth. The eurozone managed to avoid a technical recession, but just barely. The economy posted zero growth in Q4 after third-quarter growth of -0.1%. The eurozone releases preliminary CPI on Thursday, with CPI expected to drop from 3.4% y/y to 3.2%. The Federal Reserve meets later today and a pause is a virtual certainty. This would mark the fourth straight time that the Fed has held rates at the target range of 5.25%-5.50%. Traders will be looking for clues about the Fed's rate path from the rate statement and Fed Chair Powell's press conference. If the statement or the press conference signals that the Fed is moving away from its "higher for longer" stance and is looking at rate cuts, the US dollar could react with volatility. EUR/USD tested resistance at 1.0866 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.0920 There is support at 1.0801 and 1.0747
by OANDA
XAUUSD|Breaking resistance zones and continuing growthHello friends, I hope you are doing well. Yesterday, in gold analysis, we expected the supply areas to prevent the gold price growth, as we saw downward reactions from these areas. But the selling pressure on gold increased and continued to move upwards. A new upward trend has come in the form of an upward channel. We had a resistance level in the one-hour timeframe, and now we see the one-hour candle closing above this level. This means that gold can see higher prices. My suggestion is to look for patterns to enter buy positions on reversals to support areas. My target for the short term is the supply area (2047-2050).
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Golden_Star1994
AUDUSD: Analysis Pre AU CPIToday's focus: AUDUSD Pattern – Continuation/resistance break Support – .6566, .6545 Resistance – .6620 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we have run over the AUDUSD breaking down levels we have seen form and what we are looking for after tomorrow's Australian CPI data. Combined with the USD, there are a few scenarios. We have done our best to break them down and incorporate price levels into those scenarios. Will we see a new test of support, or will buyers break current short-term resistance? Australian CPI data is due tomorrow at 11:30 am. Good trading.
by Eightcap
Bitcoin will sell into discount amid interest rate hikes CPI headline inflation come in higher than previous so expect another rate hike. When the institutions step in with their ETF money expect them to gab all the liquidity from prior month lows to bring price into discount because that it there angle. prices should come down into these discounted Arrays for buys in line with bitcoin halving this summer or whenever it gets there ( it will eventually) and don't find it a coincidence that it happened after approval amid interest rate hikes.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jewlstagara
JSE 40 Index | Daily | Speculation Looking at the JSE 40 all-share Index on the daily chart we can take note that the index has been trading downwards since peaking sometime during Feb 23, now looking to the left again we can take note that after the release of the 1st quarter Dividend & Earnings release the JSE drop on both accounts. Now looking to the right, we can take note that the JSE has been hovering/consolidating on our 8,988 level for the past few days ahead of this weeks CPI, PPI & SARB Interest Rate announcements. Looking further to our right we can expect the JSE to push up from 8,988 to around 9,843 or 10,017 before heading down to 8,229. Else we can expect the JSE to just tumble down to 8,229 if it closes below 8,988. Potential Market Movers: CPI (MoM) - Apr :: 24 May 2023 PPI (MoM) - Apr :: 25 May 2023 SARB Interest Rates :: 25 May 2023
JSE:JSE
by mosa_moshka
Interest Rates Trading and Hedging Through a New LensIntroduction In the dynamic world of financial markets, Micro 10-Year Yield Futures stand out as a pivotal tool for traders and investors. These futures offer unique opportunities to navigate the complexities of interest rates, particularly in an environment influenced by key economic indicators. This article delves into how traders can leverage both fundamental economic data and a novel technical analysis approach to optimize their strategies in trading and hedging with these futures. Fundamental Analysis Approach Understanding CPI, PPI, and Unemployment Rate: Consumer Price Index (CPI): This indicator measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services. It's a critical gauge of inflation, directly impacting interest rates and, consequently, the yields on Treasury securities. Producer Price Index (PPI): PPI tracks the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation when producers pass on higher costs to consumers. Unemployment Rate: This key metric reflects the number of unemployed workers as a percentage of the labor force. It’s vital for assessing the health of the economy, influencing monetary policy and interest rates. These indicators, notably their changes, provide crucial insights for active trading, particularly in hedging strategies with Micro 10-Year Yield Futures. For instance, a higher-than-expected CPI or PPI might signal rising inflation, prompting traders to anticipate rate hikes and adjust their positions accordingly. How to incorporate Fundamental Analysis into the trade decision process? When making trading decisions for Micro 10-Year Yield Futures, it's crucial to understand the impact of economic reports on interest rates: Buying (Long) Position Rationale: When CPI, PPI, and Employment Rate (opposite of unemployment) are all increasing (indicated by green color on the chart), it typically suggests an expanding economy and potential inflationary pressures. In such scenarios, interest rates are likely to rise to manage inflation. Hence, buying 10-Year Yield Futures could become a strategic move, anticipating a potential uptick in yields. Selling Existing Long Positions: A decrease in any of these indicators (CPI, PPI, Employment Rate) signals a potential slowdown or less aggressive inflationary pressure. Traders holding long positions might consider selling to lock in profits or prevent losses, anticipating a potential drop in yields. Selling (Short) Position Rationale: If these reports show a decreasing trend (indicated by red color on the chart), it suggests economic contraction or reduced inflationary pressure. Lower interest rates are often introduced to stimulate economic growth in such conditions. Shorting 10-Year Yield Futures could be advantageous as it would benefit from a potential fall in yields. Buying Existing Short Positions: An increase in any of these indicators (CPI, PPI, Employment Rate) signals a potential expanding economy and potential inflationary pressures. Traders holding short positions might consider buying to lock in profits or prevent losses, anticipating a potential rise in yields. Rationale Behind the Rules: These rules are based on the traditional economic relationship between inflation, economic activity, and interest rates. Rising inflation or strong economic growth (indicated by higher CPI, PPI, and Employment Rates) often leads to higher interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. Conversely, decreasing indicators suggest an economy that might need stimulation, often leading to lower interest rates. By aligning trading strategies with these fundamental economic principles, traders can make more informed decisions, leveraging economic trends to speculate or hedge effectively. Technical Analysis Approach Yield Extremes and Curve Analysis: This approach involves charting and combining the 2-Year and 30-Year yield futures contracts in one chart. Analyzing the relationship between these yields provides insights similar to traditional yield curve analysis in a much more accessible format. Key Indicator: A crossover between the 2-Year and 30-Year rates signifies a substantial shift in market sentiment and economic outlook. How to Incorporate Technical Analysis into the Trade Decision Process? As said, the crossover of yield rates between the 2-year and the 30-year yields is a pivotal event, suggesting significant changes in the yield curve. Here's how to interpret and act on these occurrences: Identifying the Crossover Event: A crossover event occurs when the 2-year yield rate overtakes the 30-year rate, or vice versa. This event is indicative of a significant change in the interest rate environment, reflecting shifts in economic expectations and monetary policy. Trading Strategy Based on Micro 10-Year Prior Price Action: When the crossover occurs, the immediate strategy depends on the recent trend in the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures prices. If the Micro 10-Year Yield was trending upwards prior to the crossover, it suggests bullish sentiment in the shorter term. In this scenario, traders could consider taking a short position, anticipating a potential reversal or bearish shift in the market. Conversely, if the Micro 10-Year Yield was trending downwards, indicating bearish sentiment, traders could consider a long position post-crossover, capitalizing on the potential for a bullish reversal or recovery in prices. Rationale Behind the Trade Rules: The crossover event between the 2-Year and 30-Year yields represents a pivotal shift in market dynamics, often reflecting changes in economic policy, inflation expectations, or investor sentiment. Prior price action in the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures provides a context for these shifts, indicating the market's prevailing trend and sentiment. By aligning trading actions with both the yield curve dynamics (crossover event) and the recent trend of the Micro 10-Year Futures, traders can make informed decisions, leveraging the market's anticipated reaction to these significant economic indicators. Market Outlook and Trade Plan Keeping in mind the below tick and (Average True Range) ATR values, based on our analysis, we could express our market views through the following hypothetical set-ups: Trade Plan for the Fundamental Analysis Approach: ENTRY: Wait for the next CPI, PPI and Employment Rate reports and consider executing a trade if all 3 reports are either positive (long) or negative (short). STOP LOSS: Located 1 Monthly ATR away from the entry price Trade Plan for the Technical Analysis Approach: ENTRY: The crossover may confirm itself at the end of the day. Wait for such confirmation and consider executing a short trade once confirmed. STOP LOSS: Located 1 Monthly ATR away from the entry price Tick Value: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Monthly ATR: The average volatility is measured as 0.509 at the time of this report Trade Example: If the 2-Year yield rises above the 30-Year yield amid rising CPI, consider a short position anticipating rate hikes. Reward-to-Risk Ratio: Calculate this ratio to ensure a balanced approach to potential gains versus losses. Risk Management in Futures Trading Effective risk management is paramount. Utilize stop-loss orders and consider hedging techniques to mitigate potential losses. Understand the significance of economic reports and yield curve shifts in making informed decisions. Conclusion Micro 10-Year Yield Futures offer a versatile platform for interest rate trading and hedging. By combining monthly economic updates with a unique yield curve analysis approach, traders can navigate these markets with greater confidence and strategic foresight. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Education
by traddictiv
Gold Downtrend: Analyzing CPI Impact on XAUUSDIn today's trading session, our focus is on XAUUSD, where we are monitoring a potential selling opportunity around the 2020 zone. Gold, currently in a downtrend, is experiencing a correction phase as it approaches the trend at the 2020 support and resistance area. Adding a fundamental layer to our analysis, let's delve into the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Examining the CPI figures from the past few months, we observe a consistent pattern of inflation stability. The most recent data indicates a CPI of 3.4%, slightly surpassing the forecasted 3.2%, and showing a minor decline from the previous month's 3.7%. Now, considering the potential impact on USD strength, stable inflation can contribute to a stronger US dollar. This is because a stable economic environment, reflected in steady inflation, is often viewed positively by investors. As the USD gains strength, it can put pressure on commodities like gold, which is priced in dollars. Therefore, traders should be mindful of the potential inverse correlation between a strong USD and the value of gold. Traders are encouraged to incorporate both fundamental and technical analysis when evaluating opportunities in XAUUSD. As always, trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by JoeChampion
8
GOLD|Important areas of supply and demandHello friends, I hope you are well. We have the gold chart in the one-hour time frame. Yesterday we said that we will wait if the support zone is broken down, the next target is the zone (2005-2008). Now in this area, with the formation of candlestick patterns, it has moved upwards. The areas that are important for us are the bottom of the previous broken area (2013) and the next area of the origin of the downward aggressive movement, i.e. the price range (2024-2028) for sell positions. If we lose the support area (2008-2005), our next target is the support area (1990-1995). ​
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Golden_Star1994
3
Gold price extends downside as Fed rate cut bets ease17 January 2024 •Gold price has extended its losses to near $2,017 and is expected to decline further towards the psychological support of $2,000. Technical Analysis: Gold price drops to near 50-day EMA Gold price continues its downside below $2,020 after Fed Waller's hawkish remarks about interest rates. The near-term demand for Gold is not bullish anymore as the price has dropped below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $2,036. The yellow metal has found interim support after sliding to near the 50-day EMA, which oscillates near $2,017. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is declining towards 40.00, which could offer some cushion. However, a breakdown below the same will lead to the activation of bearish momentum. • Gold price falls sharply as Fed Waller maintains a higher for longer interest-rates narrative. • The last leg of high US inflation has turned out to be significantly stubborn. Guidance from three Fed policymakers and US Retail Sales data are due on Wednesday. Gold price (XAU/USD) has extended its correction on Wednesday as a hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller has cast doubts about a rate cut by the central bank in the March meeting. Fed policymakers have been favoring interest rates to remain higher for longer, defying market expectations, amid a lack of confidence in inflation returning towards the 2% target in a timely and sustainable manner. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December indicated that the last leg of high price pressures is quite challenging for Fed policymakers, likely due to steady labor market conditions and decent consumer spending momentum. A quick rate cut decision by the Fed can lead to persistence in inflationary pressures and dampen the work done to achieve price stability. Later in the day, the performance of the US Dollar, Treasury yields and bullions will be guided by the United States Retail Sales and Industrial Production data for December. The chances for the Fed cutting interest rates in March could ease further if the Retail Sales report comes in stronger than projected. Daily digest market movers: Gold price falls further ahead of US Retail Sales data •Gold price has extended its losses to near $2,017 and is expected to decline further towards the psychological support of $2,000. The downside bias to the gold price has strengthened as investors are uncertain about when the Federal Reserve could start discussing the timeframe for interest rate cuts. A hawkish commentary from Fed Governor Christopher Waller has raised doubts about whether the central bank will cut interest rates in March. Christopher Waller commented that the Fed should not rush to take interest rates down until it is ensured that inflation will return to the 2% target in a sustainable manner. Waller added that the Fed should proceed with rate cuts "methodically and carefully" to bail out the economy from an expected slowdown. He further added that resilience in the US economy could delay potential reductions in borrowing costs. Fed policymakers have become more determined to maintain a restrictive interest rate stance as the December inflation data turned out surprisingly stubborn. • After Waller's commentary, Investment banking firm Goldman Sachs said the Fed could cut rates somewhat later or might announce one cut each quarter from April. Meanwhile, bets supporting a rate cut by the Fed in March have dropped further. As per the CME Fedwatch tool, trades see a 61.4% chance for a 25-basis points (bps) interest rate cut in March, down from 70% at the start of the week. • The increase in the US Dollar Index (DXY) also weighed on the gold price. The USD Index has slightly corrected after posting a fresh monthly high above 103.50. •Further action in the US Dollar will be guided by the United States Retail Sales and Industrial Production data for December. • Investors have projected that Retail Sales increased by 0.4%, higher than the 0.3% rise in November. Industrial Production is seen stagnant after rising 0.2% in November. Apart from the US economic data, Fed's Beige Book and fresh outlook on interest rates from Fed speakers will be keenly watched. On Wednesday, Fed's Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman, and John Williams are due to speak. Fed policymakers are expected to endorse a restrictive monetary policy stance for a longer period than what is anticipated by market participants.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by sniper_2022
⚡️Strifor || AUDUSD-US PPI‼️Preferred direction: SELL Comment: Yesterday's CPI data practically allowed the US dollar to break through key local support/resistance levels and begin its growth. However, the market quickly ran to buy American currency, and in this case, the big money has no one to go to. In addition, the current pause may be associated with the next important data from the United States (PPI). The setup remains the same for all major pairs. Here we cannot rule out an attempt at false growth ( scenario №2 ), so two scenarios are currently relevant. The target for the fall is level 0.65848. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || USDCHF-11/01/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: The dollar is still being considered for sale. There were low expectations that we would see a strengthening of the US currency before the publication of inflation data in the US. But nevertheless, the buy-priority remains in USD . USDCHF forms a clear accumulation, which is filled with market sales. And this means a potential resource for growth. Technically, we continue to accumulate before reaching the level of 0.85696 , which also says more about an impending upward breakout of this resistance. The scenarios are highlighted on the chart. The first is more likely, but the second may be realized just at the time of the publication of inflation data. That is, in the second case, there will be a preliminary false breakdown downward and then a growth above the level of 0.85696. Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || NZDUSD-11/01/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: The New Zealand dollar is also expected to fall. Here, the situation is exactly the same as with AUDUSD. An accumulation formed at the level of 0.62359 , filled with purchases (long-orders). The publication of inflation data in the US is expected, against the background of which a downward impulse may happen. Also, due to the data, at the time of publication there may be increased volatility, we do not exclude a potential false breakout of the upper limit of accumulation (scenario №2), after which we wait for the target price at the level of 0.61263. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
Gold plunges as investors await fresh cues about Fed rate cutsGold price has been hit hard amid uncertainty over US Retail Sales and Industrial Production data. A strong US Retail Sales data would provide more room for the Fed to maintain higher interest rates. •Further escalation in Middle East tensions could bring some revival in the gold price. Gold price (XAU/USD) witnesses a sell-off after failing to reclaim the weekly high above $2,060. The precious metal drops as investors reconsider the timeframe in which the Federal Reserve (Fed) may reduce interest rates. This comes after the release of the sticky Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for December, as well as hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials recalibrating broader market expectations. While markets continue to lean towards a rate cut decision in March, policymakers are in no hurry to endorse a dovish stance on interest rates. The consumer price inflation in the United States economy is almost double the required rate of 2%, labor demand is steady and the chances of a recession are low despite interest rates remaining in the range of 5.25-5.50%. This would allow Fed policymakers to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for the time being. Going forward, monthly US Retail Sales, the Industrial Production data and the Fed's Beige Book are expected to provide fresh cues about the interest rate outlook. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price falls sharply as US Dollar, yields recover Gold price corrects to near the crucial support of $2,040 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has recovered sharply ahead of crucial United States economic data for December. A strong run-up in the precious metal that was propelled by firm bets in favor of early rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and deepening Middle East tensions, has stalled for now. • As per the CME Fedwatch tool, chances in favor of an interest rate cut in March have eased nominally to 66% against 70% recorded earlier. A gradual decline has come as investors are reconsidering strong optimism for Fed starting the rate-cut cycle from March after getting mixed cues from stubbornly higher headline consumer price inflation and softer factory gate price data. Investors would get more cues about when the Fed could plan rate cuts after the release of the monthly US Retail Sales and Industrial Producer data, which are due to be released on Wednesday. • Retail Sales are expected to have grown at a higher pace of 0.4% against 0.3% increase in November. Consumer spending excluding automobiles is estimated to have grown at a steady pace of 0.2%. • The Industrial Production data is seen stagnant against 0.2% growth in November on a monthly basis. Upbeat economic data would comfort Fed policymakers for maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance while a soft report will firm the case of rate cuts in March. • Before that, commentary from Fed Governor Christopher Waller will be keenly watched by market participants. Investors are eager to know how the Fed is considering the timeframe for the rate-cut cycle after the release of sticky consumer price inflation data. • The appeal for the gold price has not been impacted on a broader basis as crises in the Middle East region have deepened after the airstrikes from the US and the United Kingdom. Iran-backed Houthi rebels have threatened to retaliate for attacking groups in Yemen, which will keep risk sentiment on its toes. • The US Dollar Index has broken to a new high slightly above 103.00 as investors hope that other central banks will also start reducing interest rates earlier than previously projected. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield has rebounded swiftly above 4.0%. Technical Analysis: Gold price corrects to near 20-day EMA Gold price has faced a sharp sell-off after failing to recapture the weekly high of $2,062. The precious metal has dropped to near $2,040 and is expected to remain on tenterhooks before getting fresh cues about the timing of rate cuts from the Fed. The yellow metal has surrendered entire gains generated on Monday and has corrected to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $2,039. More downside could appear in the gold price if it fails to defend the January 3 low of $2,030, which will expose it towards the psychological support of $2,000.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by sniper_2022
Core and Headline Producer Price Index (PPI) Release Core and Headline PPI (Dec 2023 figures) U.S. Headline PPI Prev: 0.8% / Exp: 1.3% Rep: 1.0% ✅ Lower than expected ✅ U.S. Core PPI (excludes food and energy) Prev: 2.0% / Exp: 1.9% Rep: 1.8% ✅ Lower Than Expected✅ What is PPI and why is it important? Producer Price Index is a crucial economic indicator that provides valuable information about inflationary pressures at the producer level. By tracking changes in producer prices over time, it provides insights into inflation trends before they manifest in consumer prices. Difference between Core and Headline PPI The Core PPI aims to provide a more stable measure of underlying inflation, while the headline index reflects all price changes, including those driven by more volatile components such as food an energy. You can see from the chart that Headline PPI in red is the swings more widely up and down due to the inclusion of these volatile components (food and energy). ✅ LOWER THAN EXPECTED PPI TODAY✅ Core and Headline PPI came in lower than expected this month and as you can see we are reaching down into the historically more moderate zone between 3% and -1.5%. This bodes will for inflationary pressures in general and may be an early indicator of lower Core and Headline inflation figures (for CPI) in the coming months. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USCPPYY
by PukaCharts
GOLD|Important supply and demand areasHello friends, I hope you are doing well. We have the gold chart in 1 hour.Currently, gold is fluctuating in a trending range area and we have the top and bottom of the trending range to enter trading positions. CPI data will be released today, if we have data that is in favor of gold, that is, the US inflation has decreased, this means that it will harm the dollar index and gold can move upwards. We should know that apart from the top of the trending range, which is a resistance, we have the next resistance in the area of (2046-2044) and after the resistance that is the base of the falling movement, it is around (2066-2064). On the other hand, if inflation is published more than expected, it will benefit the dollar index and can create selling pressure on gold. The area that currently maintains the price is the area (2016-2019). If this area is broken, the next support is the price range (2004-2008) and then the price range (1990-1995). If the price reaches these areas, we can enter trading positions with confirmation
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Golden_Star1994
1
⚡️Strifor || SILVER-US PPI‼️Preferred direction: SELL Comment: Recent events in the Middle East have made markets nervous. In turn, this has traditionally generated demand for metals. However, so far the situation is not particularly serious, since Yemen is a constant point of hostilities. There are unlikely to be any strong purchases in metals until the end of today's trading day. But after the weekend, it is better not to postpone deals of this kind to the next week. Technically and considering volumes, shorts are still being looked for. We have two scenarios ready for the US PPI data. We consider the target for the fall to be at the level of 22.00. Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAGUSD
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || GOLD-US CPI‼️Preferred direction: SELL Comment: For Gold , we also consider two scenarios simultaneously. Since, against the backdrop of the publication of inflation data, it is quite logical to expect increased volatility, and false movements are not excluded. Our main direction is to sell and consider a fall to the 2000 level, with the potential for further declines. You can consider adding a short position at the level of 2060 . Stop loss is placed beyond the level of 2090 . The final fall can be expected down to the level of 1960 and 1950 . Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Strifor
3
⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-US CPI‼️Preferred direction: SELL Comment: As expected, due to the high correlation between the British pound and the Euro , the situation for these currency pairs before US inflation is absolutely the same. For this pair, scenario №1 is considered worked out. But scenario №2 does not lose its relevance. Therefore, scenario №2 is very relevant before the publication of data from the United States . We set the downside target at 1.26000. We place the stop loss at 1.28500 , closer to 1.29000. If something happens, within the specified stop loss ranges, you can consider adding a position or re-entering the sell. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || EURUSD-US CPI‼️Preferred direction: SELL Comment: Ahead of the inflation data , the situation for the Euro did not change. The current sluggish recovery is due to a surge in market sales that were missed by limit buyers. This does not mean that we will now grow rapidly. Most likely, a major player has not allowed the price to move, as the impulse is delayed until the US inflation publication, which will take place today. Two short scenarios are now autal, that is, two transactions can be active at once with a target at the level of 1.08000 . Stop loss should be placed slightly above the level of 1.11000. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
Short GBPUSD on Strong USD SentimentThe Federal Reserve's unwavering commitment to a restrictive monetary policy aimed at restoring economic balance and curbing inflation, recent market sentiment strongly favors the US dollar. Against this backdrop, the GBPUSD pair finds itself in a precarious position, hovering around the pivotal point of 1.27815. The heightened expectations of the Fed continuing its policy firming, coupled with concerns over inflation, suggest a potential downside for GBPUSD. Technical analysis aligns with this sentiment, indicating a possible bearish trajectory towards the target level of 1.26181. As we delve into the intricacies of this forecast, it becomes evident that the dynamics of strong USD sentiment and the Federal Reserve's steadfast approach set the stage for a compelling trading opportunity. Technical Analysis: Current GBPUSD level: 1.27815 (around pivot point) Technical bias: Bearish 🐻 Target level: 1.26181 Reasoning: Strong USD Sentiment: The recent statements from the Federal Reserve suggest a commitment to a restrictive monetary policy stance to achieve their inflation target. This has led to a boost in market sentiment favoring the USD, as evidenced by recent economic data indicating inflationary pressures. Fed's Policy Actions: The Federal Reserve has implemented a restrictive policy over the past two years to achieve balance between demand and supply and restore price stability. The commitment to maintaining this stance until inflation reaches the 2 percent target suggests a continued strong sentiment for the USD. Inflation Concerns: The recent inflation data, with the consumer price index increasing by 3.4% in the year through December, highlights concerns about inflationary pressures. This could lead to a stronger push from the Fed to maintain a restrictive policy, adding to the bullish sentiment for the USD. Technical Levels: GBPUSD is currently around the pivot point area (1.27815), indicating a potential turning point. A break below this level could signal further downside movement. The target level of 1.26181 aligns with the bearish sentiment and provides a reasonable downside objective. Risk Management: Stop-loss can be set above Pivot Point or a key resistance level to manage potential losses. Monitor economic releases and Fed statements for any changes in sentiment that could impact the trade. Disclaimer: The outlined trading idea is not a guarantee of future results, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Always use risk management strategies such as setting stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses. It is essential to stay updated on economic releases, central bank statements, and any other relevant news that might impact currency movements. Happy Trading! 📉🐻
Short
by fardycurry
XAUUSD BuyBuying Gold due to the failed close below 2016. I predicted 2012 last week, but to see this I'd anticipate good confirmation. This has not happened yet, CPI has dropped gold over 150 pips, now im expecting a clear push back to 2025+ area. Ive entered at 2016.54, targeting 2029.54 and my stop is set at 2013.54. Gives me a 1:4.33 R/R 1%Risk Entered at the low end of a 4Hr OB, which I'd like price to close above. Not to much more analysis here, kept it simple, still using @nephew_sam_ FVG indictor so testing this on my funded account.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by xEthan