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NAS100USD: CPI Volatility & Institutional Continuation Sell-OffGreetings Traders, In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, we observe that the market remains bearish following a significant CPI news release. This high-impact event resulted in a sharp bearish displacement, reinforcing the ongoing bearish narrative. Yesterday, I shared an analysis predicting this continued bearishness. For those interested, you’ll find that analysis attached at the end of this description for deeper context. KEY OBSERVATIONS: CPI-Induced Displacement : The CPI release triggered a large downward move, forming a massive single candle that left behind a noticeable inefficiency—a Fair Value Gap (FVG). Liquidity Grab & Fair Valuation: After sell stops were taken, price retraced to fill the FVG, restoring fair valuation. This retracement fully closed the gap, confirming a continuation of bearish order flow. Premium Price Zone: We are currently in a deep premium price range, which aligns with institutional distribution zones. These areas offer excellent opportunities for confirmation-based sell entries. TRADING PLAN: Entry Strategy: Look for confirmation at the current premium price level before entering short positions. Targets: Focus on discount liquidity pools at lower prices, as these are the areas institutions will likely target to take profits. By following the institutional flow, we align ourselves with smart money practices, improving our precision and probability of success. Stay patient and disciplined—confirmation is key! For more context, here’s yesterday’s analysis below. Happy Trading! The Architect 🏛📊
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
4
BTC CPI 1H (Jan) CPI (YoY)- PREVIOUS: 2.9% FORECAST: 2.9% ACTUAL: ?? Consumer price index data release rolls around once again, this time the forecast is no change (0.0%) remaining at the same December 2024 level of 2.9%. It is important to note that after this data release there isn't any further news events of note until next month so BTC no planned interference from data releases. As we go into the data release volatility on the LTF is common and so maybe we'll see a break of this painful trend bitcoin has been stuck in since the sell-off event. With that in mind here are some entry ideas for longs and shorts: Long: - The safest option/ highest probability would be a breakout from the bearish downtrend, a retest as new support and begin the move up back towards RANGE HIGH. - A sweep of the green bullish OB zone with a tag of the lower bearish trend line. A good R:R IMO with the first point of interest being the LOCAL RESISTANCE/ bearish trend high. Short: - The bearish scenario would be a loss of the $91K support level that has held for the last 10 weeks in a row and is the daily range low. If price accepts under that level things could get ugly as there is no support until $85K.
by ProR35
4
CPI vs. Core CPI: The Gold Market MoversConsumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI are key economic indicators that significantly impact XAUUSD (gold prices). CPI measures the overall change in consumer prices for goods and services, reflecting inflation’s pace. Core CPI, however, excludes volatile food and energy prices, providing a clearer view of underlying inflation trends. When CPI or Core CPI figures are higher than expected, it signals rising inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to consider tightening monetary policy by raising interest rates. This typically strengthens the US dollar and puts downward pressure on XAUUSD, as gold becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies. Conversely, lower-than-expected inflation can weaken the dollar, driving up gold prices as investors seek inflation hedges and safe-haven assets. Traders closely monitor these releases to anticipate XAUUSD movements and adjust their strategies accordingly. FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
by KeN-WeNzEl
Bad CPI, Perfect Setup Opportunity for the S&P500Today’s CPI was really bad: 3% vs. 2.9%. Bad for markets, good for the Dollar, and everything got slapped - S&P 500 included. But honestly, moments like this are often where the magic happens. Zoom in, and you’ll notice that the Monday Low is still sitting there untouched. In a few minutes, the New York Stock Exchange opens. What am I hoping for? A sweep of that Low, followed by a quick reversal and a push to the upside. On the 1-hour chart, the RSI is already in oversold territory. A sell-off at the open would be the perfect entry, aiming for a 1:3 risk-reward ratio. If the market plays along, this could get real interesting real fast. 🔹 Asset: S&P 500 🔹 Timeframe: 1H 🔹 Entry: 5974.60 🔹 Stop: 5936.90 🔹 Target(s): 6085.86
FX:SPX500Long
by stromm
EURUSD 12 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday Analysis - CPI, Powell & TariffThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 12 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment In my Weekly Analysis, tariffs continue to dominate the narrative, yet market reactions have become the primary focus. The critical question is whether investors have grown accustomed to tariff-related news—leading to muted responses—or if the persistent tariff war rhetoric will trigger renewed market anxiety. Notably, Powell’s testimony yesterday failed to offer any fresh insights; however, there is hope that today’s session might shed some light on future policy directions. Additionally, the USD’s weakness observed at the close of trading yesterday appears to have been driven more by reports of a territorial swap in Ukraine’s peace deal—and possibly an initial leak of the CPI data—rather than by Powell’s remarks. Today’s CPI report is expected to be a significant driver of market volatility. Investors are eagerly anticipating softer CPI numbers, which could encourage the Fed to consider not only an earlier rate cut but potentially two cuts this year, contrasting with the current market consensus of just one. While tariffs are clearly contributing to upward inflationary pressures and prompting a cautious stance from the Fed, the immediate volatility is likely to stem from the CPI data. The market will be closely watching whether the tariffs are being employed as a negotiating tactic—or if they signal an intentional escalation towards a trade war. Markets face a tug-of-war between CPI-driven rate hopes and tariff-induced risks. While CPI may spark a tactical rally if soft, tariffs remain the swing factor – any escalation (e.g., new retaliatory measures) would overshadow short-term data. Position for choppy trading until Trump’s tariff strategy crystallizes. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios: Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹The reaction from the recent 4H Demand Zone formed a Bullish CHoCH and a fresh Demand zone where price can pullback to after tapping the recent 4H Supply Zone. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs turning Bearish. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹At Swing Premium 2️⃣ 🔹With yesterday PA, price failed to continue Bearish and created a Bullish i-BOS. 🔹Price reached the 4H supply as anticipated and mitigated the 15m Supply within the 4H to maybe initiate the Bullish INT Structure pullback phase and if the swing is going to continue Bearish there is a high probability to target the Strong INT Low. 🔹The current Bullish i-BOS aligns with the 4H Swing where we have also a high probability that we can target the 15m Strong Swing High. 🔹With the inconsistency of Time frames alignments, a clear direction is difficult to identify which requires a sit back and watch till we have a clear direction. 3️⃣ 🔹From an intraday perspective, expectations are set to Bearish to facilitate the Bullish INT Structure pullback. 🔹Today’s CPI, Powell and Tariffs talks will have high volatility that could direct me tomorrow or next week for a clearer direction move.
by Amr-Sadek
2
XAUUSD Trade Log 🚨 XAUUSD Long Zones: High-Probability Entries 🚨 Gold has been on a strong move, but smart money doesn’t chase— TDV traders wait for prime entries. 🔴 First Long Entry: A swing long opportunity where I’ll get in but move to break-even fast. Why? The real opportunity is lower. 🔴 Bad Boy Entry: This is where I’ll scale in aggressively, with: ✅ Daily discount level ✅ Weekly Break of Structure (BOS) ✅ Confluence of daily & hourly levels For risk: ⚡ 2% for prop traders ⚡ 5% for personal equity accounts This is how TDV plays the game—strategic, calculated, and ahead of the herd.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Fondera
USOIL Trade Log - CPI Session USOIL Short Trade Setup – CPI Session Incoming 🚨 - Instrument: West Texas Oil (USOIL) - Timeframe: 4-Hour - Risk: 1% max due to CPI volatility - Risk-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1:2 Key Technical Analysis: 1. Price has reached a strong resistance zone within the 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG) and is showing signs of rejection. 2. The Kijun Weekly and 4H levels align with this area, increasing the probability of a reversal. 3. Market structure has been bearish overall, with a clear Break of Structure (BOS) and internal liquidity grabs. CPI Session Volatility Warning: - With the CPI release incoming, expect aggressive moves and potential liquidity sweeps before directional commitment. - If price runs liquidity above the FVG and shows strong bearish confirmations, this becomes a high-probability short. - Manage risk carefully – no need to overexpose with CPI in play. Trade Plan: - Entry: Within the 4H FVG upon bearish confirmation. - Stop Loss: Above the FVG high to avoid CPI wicks. - Take Profit: At least 1:2 RRR, ideally targeting recent lows. Stay sharp, play the reaction, and don’t force the trade if the setup invalidates. CPI is where weak hands get rinsed! 💀
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by Fondera
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 2.12.2025🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News: 🇺🇸🏛️ Fed Chair Powell Testifies: At 10:00 AM ET, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress, providing insights into the economic outlook and potential monetary policy adjustments. 📊 Key Data Releases: 📅 Wednesday, Feb 12: 🏢 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.3% MoM; Previous: +0.4% MoM. 📈 Core CPI (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.3% MoM; Previous: +0.2% MoM. 📉 CPI (YoY) (Jan): Expected 2.9%; Previous 2.9%. 📉 Core CPI (YoY) (Jan): Expected 3.1%; Previous 3.2%. 🛢️ EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM ET): Previous: +8.664M. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPX #SPY #daytrading #charting #trendtao
SP:SPX
by TrendTao
$USIRYY -U.S CPI (January/2025)ECONOMICS:USIRYY 2.9% (January/2025) source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the US likely held steady at 2.9% in January 2025, matching December’s figure, which was the highest since July. On a monthly basis, the CPI is expected to have risen by 0.3%, slowing from 0.4% in December, with food and energy prices continuing to increase, particularly natural gas. Meanwhile, annual core inflation, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is anticipated to decline for a second consecutive month to 3.1%, marking the lowest level since April 2021. In contrast, monthly core inflation is projected to edge up to 0.3% from 0.2% in December, driven primarily by an increase in new and used car prices.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
GBP/NZD: Bearish Outlook Confirmed by Head and ShouldersThe GBP/NZD exchange rate at NZ$2.1922 reflects a persistent downtrend, confirming recent weakness in the British Pound against major counterparts. The formation of a head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart suggests further downside risk, with the pair testing key support levels. Market fluctuations between NZ$2.1754 and NZ$2.22 highlight ongoing volatility driven by external economic factors, including U.S. tariffs and mixed macroeconomic data from both the UK and New Zealand. The Pound remains under pressure due to inflation concerns and lackluster GDP growth, while the NZD struggles to capitalize on the Pound’s weakness amid subdued domestic data. The technical setup and broader macroeconomic landscape signal a potential continuation of bearish momentum for GBP/NZD.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Australia dollar eyes confidence dataThe Australian dollar has started the week with gains.  In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6275, up 0.60% on the day. Australia releases business and consumer confidence on Tuesday, with the markets expecting some improvement.  Westpac Consumer Sentiment is expected to rebound and gain 0.4% in February after a 0.7% decline in January.  The National Australian Bank business confidence index is projected to improve to zero in January, after a -2 reading in December. China's inflation was a mix, as consumer inflation rose to a five-month high while producer inflation continued to decline.  CPI jumped 0.5% y/y in January, up from 0.1% in December and above the market estimate of 0.4%.  This was the highest level since August.  Monthly CPI rose 0.7%, up sharply from zero in December and an 11-month high, but shy of the market estimate of 0.8% The producer price index fell 2.3% y/y in January unchanged from December and deeper than the market estimate of 2.1%.  This points to deflation which is likely to worsen if the trade war between the US and China continues.  On Monday, China's retaliatory tariffs kicked in after the US hit China with tariffs last week. US nonfarm payrolls decelerate, unemployment falls US nonfarm payrolls eased to 143 thousand in January, shy of the market estimate of 175 thousand.  Still, there weres signs of strength in the labor market - nonfarm payrolls were revised by 100 thousand in the previous two months and the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4% from 4.1%, below the market estimate of 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.5%, up from 0.3% in December and above the market estimate of 0.5%.  Annually, average hourly earnings rose 4.1%, unchanged from the revised December reading and above the market estimate of 3.8%.  The generally positive employment report supports the  case for the Federal Reserve continuing to hold rates, possibly until the third quarter. Just a few months ago, it appeared that the Fed would stay aggressive and continue lowering rates into 2025, but with the economy purring along we might see only one or two rate cuts this year. There is resistance at 0.6351 and 0.6430 There is support at 0.6220 and 0.6141
by OANDA
10/02/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $102,496.97 Last weeks low: $91,204.00 Midpoint: $96,850.48 Another week of Bitcoin within the range and another one begins. With a very familiar low of ~$91K holding for the 10th week running (since the end of NOV '24), with a weekly high of $102,500 (last weekly outlooks midpoint) capping off the highs, will this weeks midpoint also act as the pivatol level? So far the midpoint has been reclaimed, a retest should add confluence to this. We have a midweek CPI data release with a forecast 0.0% change remaining at 2.9%. These data events often cause LTF volatility and so that should be taken into account, the same is true for PPI on Friday. Currently the market sentiment is pretty dire, the fear & greed index is at 43, the lowest since before the US Presidential Election. Altcoins are struggling across the board, with the exception of some CEX coins all large-midcaps are below the 4H 200 EMA. I think that will change if BTC has a strong rally back above the weekly high and reclaims it, that will give the bulls the chance to finally break the $106K brick wall and flip from a rangebound environment into a trending environment again, altcoins would rally very well if this were to happen. On the other hand is the midpoint is lost then the weekly low will need to hold for the 11th week running. Good luck traders!
by ProR35
13/01/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $102,745.89 Last weeks low: $91,200.80 Midpoint: $96,973.35 A shaky week for BTC and the broader crypto market, mostly due to stronger than expected PMI and unemployment numbers decreasing the likelihood of rate cuts or at least a less aggressive rate cut cycle than previously expected due to a stronger economy. This is bad news for risk-on assets as borrowing capital stays expensive, with the next FOMC minutes coming less than 10 days after Trumps inauguration, last weeks bearish PA is a move to price in a no cut interest rate decision IMO. The weekly low is once again ~$91-92K which is a key area of support on the higher timeframes crating a rangebound environment so it should be treated as such, if weekly low is lost and price is accepted below then $85,000 comes into play as next support. This would be a capitulation wick IMO to trap the fearful before a very pro crypto administration begins in the US in a weeks time. At the same time price acceptance above ~$102,000 would be a bullish breakout of this rangebound environment and would signal the move to ATH at $108,000. I do believe we make new highs this quarter, I'm not sure how soon we will do that I think there is caution in the market going into January 20th and so unless there is critical news (maybe CPI on Wednesday) before then that changes this dynamic, a choppy week is expected. This week I'm cautiously optimistic about getting some good altcoin entries at key levels in strong fundamental plays. If BTC does hold above weekly low for the week I can see some very good opportunities presenting themselves.
by ProR35
3
Dollar strength stopped as December CPI cools The dollar retreated further as the deceleration in core CPI for Dec increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut in June FOMC rose to 67% from 57%. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stressed that inflation is approaching the 2% target again and price pressures were continuing to slow. Failed to hold EMA21, DXY consolidates near the 109.00 threshold. The index briefly broke below EMA78 and the trendline, indicating the possibility of a bearish transition. If DXY fails to hold EMA78 and the trendline, the index may fall further to the support at 108.30. Conversely, if DXY breaches above EMA21, the index could regain upward momentum toward the 110.15 high.
TVC:DXY
by inkicho_exness
$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate (December/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY December/2024 source: Office for National Statistics -Annual inflation rate in the UK unexpectedly edged lower to 2.5% in December 2024 from 2.6% in November, below forecasts of 2.6%. However, it matched the BoE's forecast from early November. Prices slowed for restaurants and hotels (3.4%, the lowest since July 2021 vs 4%), mainly due to a 1.9% fall in prices of hotels. Inflation also slowed for recreation and communication (3.4% vs 3.6%) and services (4.4%, the lowest since March 2022 vs 5) and steadied for food and non-alcoholic beverages (at 2%). Meanwhile, prices decreased less for transport (-0.6% vs -0.9%) as upward effects from motor fuels and second-hand cars (1%) partially offset a downward effect from air fare (-26%). Also, prices rose slightly more for housing and utilities (3.1% vs 3%). Compared to November, the CPI rose 0.3%, above 0.1% in the previous period but below forecasts of 0.4%. The annual core inflation rate also declined to 3.2% from 3.5% and the monthly rate went up to 0.3%, below forecasts of 0.5%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx