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XAUUSD target met to the pip! expecting range bound priceGood evening gold gang! what a beautiful day to trade the precious metal. Trades called today both won and ran for 100 pips each with little drawdown following the bullish bias. For asian session, im expecting price to either rise up to my next level marked on the chart, or simply range around the major price level (marked in white) until cpi news release. There should be a deeper pull back at some point, but the sentiment has been so bullish .. im not sure when it will come just yet. Safest play would be to wait until after the news. Its gonna be a good one! Catch you tomorrow tommyXAU
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tommyXAU
4
Euro hits 1-month high as Silicon Valley Bank collapse weighs onThe euro has posted sharp gains at the start of the week, extending its rally against a retreating US dollar. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0740, up 0.95% and its highest level since February 15. Perhaps it is fitting that today's economic calendar has no US or European releases, allowing investors to focus their full attention on the fallout from the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). This is the largest US bank to fail since 2008 and understandably, investors are alarmed that the contagion could spread and the US banking system could be at risk. Over the weekend, New York officials closed Signature Bank, one of the main banks in the cryptocurrency sector. The US government acted decisively and said SVB depositors (but not investors) would be protected and President Biden made a television appearance to reassure a nervous public that the banking sector is safe and those responsible for the SVB collapse would be held accountable. The fact that Biden had to address the nation reflects fears that the SVB failure could trigger a full-blown banking crisis. The SVB collapse has sent the US dollar in retreat against the majors, as the market expectations of a 50-bp hike from the Fed next week have evaporated. Just last week, the markets had priced a 50-bp hike at 70% and a 25-bp increase at 30%. That has shifted to a 70% likelihood of a 25-bp increase and a 30% chance of the Fed taking a pause, with a zero chance of a 50-bp hike. Goldman Sachs had projected a 25-bp last week but now expects the Fed to pause. The US releases CPI on Tuesday and the release was expected to play a key role in the Fed rate decision, but that was before the SVB collapse triggered a massive repricing in the markets. Still, the inflation report will be widely watched by investors and by the Fed. Headline inflation is expected to fall to 6.0% in February, after a 6.4% gain in January. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0718. The next resistance level is 1.0798 There is support at 1.0622 and 1.0542
by OANDA
Charting 8 Currencies: A Weekly Forex Analysis and CPI PreviewIn this week's Tradingview analysis, I've examined eight individual currencies and marked off key levels, support/resistance, and trendlines. These charts help me gauge the strengths and weaknesses of different pairs, which I'll be keeping an eye on for the week. However, the fundamental landscape is also worth watching, especially with the upcoming CPI event. Last week's NFP data was mixed, with some numbers beating expectations while others missed. Traders are now looking to Tuesday's CPI data to get a clearer sense of the market's direction. If the CPI data is a miss, we may see upside in risk assets and downside in the dollar. On the other hand, a beat in CPI could trigger the opposite response. Here's a brief rundown of each currency: USD: The 4H chart suggests an uptrend, but a break of the support level could lead to further downside. Reclaiming the key level could signal a continuation of the upside move. GBP: Recent price action hit a resistance zone, and I expect a pullback. I'll be watching the key level around the 50% fib for a potential bounce or downside move. EURUSD: The current uptrend may continue, but breaking the trendline and key level could trigger a downside move. JPY: Price is at an interesting juncture. Breaking the pattern and key level could give it more momentum to the upside, but failing to do so could push price down to the second key level. Watching the US10Y for further downside momentum is also important because it can add strength to the JPY. CHF: Recent price movements seem stretched, and I'll be watching for any pullback or price action at the prior resistance level. AUD: The 4H candle just broke and closed below the prior support level, indicating potential downside. A reclaim of the prior support level could indicate a false break. NZDUSD: Our support level is currently holding. If it breaks, we may see a downward move. However, a breakout above our trendline and key level would suggest a possible bullish move. CAD: There's currently downside pressure on the CAD. Watching the key level 2 for a potential reversal or further downside move. Wishing you all the best of luck in your trades, and I hope this breakdown provides some valuable insights.
by natron
8
DXY Potential Forecast | Post NFP | 13th March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. NFP print came out 311k vs 224k forecasted. 2. Average hourly earnings m/m printed 0.2% compared to 0.3% forecasted. 3. Unemployment rate came out at 3.6% vs 3.4% forecasted. 4. Resulted in heavy bearish USD sentiments due to the wage inflation decreasing and unemployment rate increasing. 5. This shows the effects of rate hikes by the Fed and hence sentiments believe that the Fed now has lesser incentive to hike by 50bps in the upcoming FOMC. 6. All eyes will now be on CPI release this week and if CPI drops, we could see further downside pressure on the DXY. Technical Confluences 1. Price reacted from a H4 resistance zone at 104.6 and has since went lower. 2. Very strong bearish pressure from Monday's asian open. 3. Price action has shifted market structure to bearish. 4. Would be appropriate to look for short positions on the USD. Idea Price can potentially come lower to tap into the key support level at 102.65. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by OlympusLab
NAS100 Monthly We all know the federal reserve are trying to fight inflation . Last nfp on febuary 3rd 2023 came out hot 517k , this is scary for the federal reserve as they were hiking interest rates at .25 now they are looking at a possible 50bs . If price close below 10927.0 on the weekly there is a high probability, we could CRASH . The daily timeframe is maintaining structure creating LH and LL. Jerome powell will crash the markets to get inflation at 2% the targeted goal he dont care.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by DwayneOTSchartzzz
Inflation (CPI) - A Battle Already LostInflation ( CPI ) - A Battle Already Lost I've recently shared my outlook on CPI and where I think its headed in the months ahead but after further review, it seems that I've previously overlooked certain signals which should have altered my perspective in a way that it did not. Based on discovery of those signals, I have now updated my anticipatory CPI chart to highlight certain levels of interest. As we can see on the wavemap, the Consumer Price Index (a measure of inflation) has broken above its 40+ year bearish trend line. The breakout was very strong and should be considered as very significant. The format of the wave during this breakout has developed as what seems to likely be a zig-zag formation. Noticeably, the upside zig-zag wave has retraced 90% of the 40 year long bearish drawdown. Therefore, leaving little probability of it being a truly corrective wave. Aside from the macro bear trend-line, I have also highlighted the newly respected bullish trend-line. Finding resistance near 6.77, Fibonacci measurements suggest that the pending action will fall to retest the former price containing trend line and maybe even drop below it. Specifically, Elliott Wave Theory suggests that 0.99-1.01 should be the downside target range. Over the past 20 years, this level has also supplied nearly unbeatable support. If support is once again discovered near 1.00, the currently active wave could then be sent to retest the red bullish trend, at a level near 9-10. Ultimately, completion of the blue diagonal will signify that the CPI (and inflation) area headed for upside levels that the American economy has never witnessed. Personally, I believe that inflation is a byproduct of capitalism and there is no true containment possible. The next decade will prove to show if this is on point or simply farce.
ECONOMICS:USCCPI
by DigitalSurfTrading
EURUSD:Couple of Scenarios depending on Friday's NFPHey Traders, above is a technical overview on EURUSD and the most important zones to watch, Fed yesterday have threw some hawkish comments "rates are likely to be higher than previously anticipated", but before the next FOMC we have a couple of events to consider. First of all NFP and next week CPI data. If NFP comes again above expectations that will signal more rate hikes from the fed and thus more USD strength and EURUSD downsides. If the numbers are normal that will not be enough for fed to hike rates massively. and for CPI it's the same story. Numbers above expectations will lead to a more restrictive monetary policy and normal number will slow down the pace. Feel free to ask any questions in the comment section. Trade safe, Joe.
by JoeChampion
53
Oil prices caught in dollar's game, ahead of NFPOil prices are like a game of poker right now, with players trying to figure out what everyone else is holding. There's the China reopening story, OPEC's card tricks, SPR releases and refills, and the dollar's royal flush. It's a high stakes game, but the pot is huge! Traders are watching NFP and CPI data like hawks, looking for any tells that might indicate which way oil prices are headed. Powell's hawkish comments have only upped the ante, with the markets going all in on a 50-point rate hike. Will they be able to bluff their way to a win? For now, oil prices are stuck in a tight range of 73.00 to 82.50, like a hand with no pairs or straights. But there's still hope for a lucky break! You could try raising the stakes by buying a bounce off of the 73.00 level or buying a break of the 82.50 level. If you're feeling lucky, why not both? A break above 82.50 could mean a jackpot, while a break below 73.00 could signal a bust. So grab your lucky rabbit's foot and get ready to play the oil price game! Keep your eyes peeled for any new cards on the table and you just might hit the jackpot.
TVC:USOILLong
by natron
1
Gold as an Inflation Hedge? Myth Busted!COMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ) and Gold Options ( COMEX:GC1! ) Gold is often hailed as an effective hedge against inflation. It generally increases in value as the purchasing power of the US dollar declines over time. Does this still remain true? Since January 2013, the US Consumer Price Index increased 29.4% cumulatively, while the 10-year total return of Gold is only 11.3%. Let’s demystify the gold myth. In fact, gold is by no means among the best-performing investment assets in the past decade! Let’s look at where investing $10,000 in different assets would take you in the past ten years: • If you held $10,000 in cash, you still have $10,000, a 0% nominal return; • If you bought a gold ETF fund, you would have $11,300, assuming it tracks gold price perfectly. However, after subtracting an average 0.5% a year in fund expense, you would end up with only $10,800, an annual return of merely 0.78%; • 5-year bank certificate of deposit (CD) yielded 1.0%/APR in 2013 and 1.5% in 2018. If you put the money in CDs back-to-back, you would have $11,322 now; • If you invest in a market index stock portfolio, the S&P 500 gained 159% in the past ten years. You would end up with $25,900; • If you bought bitcoin at $4.43 each in January 2013, you would have amassed nearly $1.6 million from the original $10K, an astonishing 15943% return! Actual data shows that holding gold, a non-yielding asset, underperformed other investable assets in the past decade. Gold price endured a double-digit decline, from $1,600 per troy ounce, to as low as $1,000, during the low-inflation period of 2013-2018. It shot up in 2019 as the US-China trade conflict intensified. The outbreak of Covid pandemic pushed gold to a record high of $2,075 in August 2020. As US economy remerged from Covid in 2021, gold price fell back to $1,700. Then, the Russia-Ukraine conflict pushed it back up above $1,900. However, when the Federal Reserve embarked on the path of rate increases, gold price fell sharply to $1,600. This was a period where US CPI raged between 7-9%, and gold completely failed as a defense against inflation. US Dollar Is the Primary Price Driver Gold prices rose on Friday as a rally in the dollar and bond yields paused. COMEX Gold Futures (GC) for April delivery closed up $14.10 to $1,854.60 per ounce. The rise comes on expectations that higher interest rates are on the way as reports show that US economy is still running too hot to quell high inflation. Dollar index was down 0.35 points to 104.68, while the US 10-year note was paying 3.977%, down 8.4 basis points. US dollar continues to call the shot for gold as investors assess the Fed's rate path. The above chart shows a perfect negative correlation between gold price and dollar index. When dollar rises, gold falls; and when dollar declines, gold advances. Last month, the dollar's bounce had weighed heavily on gold. The dollar rallied as a run of hot U.S. labor and inflation data saw traders’ expectations for more aggressive Fed rate increases. A stronger dollar can be a drag on commodities priced in dollar, making them more expensive to users of other currencies. In recent weeks, gold may have found some support on fears that an aggressive Fed could push the U.S. economy into recession, but a continued rise in U.S. Treasury yields, along with a relatively resilient dollar means limited upside . Rising Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, like gold. Short-term Trading Strategies At $1,850, gold is neither too expensive nor too cheap by historical standard. As such, I am not in favor of an outright directional trade, one way or the other. However, the market’s razor-thin focus on Fed rate actions will make a compelling reason for event-driven trades on Gold Futures and Gold Options. March is a very active month for macro-economic data releases: • March 8th, Fed Chair Powell will testify on the central bank's semi-annual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee; • March 10th, Bureau of Labor Statistics will release February employment report; • March 14th, BLS will release the February CPI report; • March 22nd, Fed will announce its interest rate decision. Financial market tends to be sensitive to these data releases, as the latter could deliver huge shocks if actual data goes beyond market expectations. If you expect an upcoming data release to be bullish on gold, you could express this view with a long futures position on COMEX Micro Gold Futures (MGC). Each MGC contract has a notional value of 10 troy ounces. At $1,880, a June 2023 contract (MGCM3) is valued at $18,800. Initiating a long or short position requires a margin of $740. This is approximately 4% of contract notional value. In comparison, buying physical gold (i.e., gold bar or gold coin) and gold ETF fund requires 100% upfront investment. If gold price moves up to $1,950, the futures account would gain $700. Relative to the initial margin, this would equate to a return of +94.6%, excluding commissions. Alternatively, the same bullish view could be expressed by a call option of COMEX Gold Futures. Each COMEX Gold Future contract has a notional value of 100 troy ounces. At $1,880, a June futures contract (GCM3) is valued at $188,000. A call option on the 1,900 strike is quoted 37.0 on 3 March 2023. Acquiring 1 option requires an upfront premium of $3,700 (100 ounces per contract). If gold moves up to $1,950, the options account would be credited by $5,000 (=(1950-1900) x100), which represents a theoretical return of +35.1% from the original investment of $3,700. If you are bearish on gold, a short MGC futures or a put option on GC would be appropriate. Futures and options account would gain in value if the price of gold falls. Similar to investing in physical gold or gold ETFs, the biggest investment risk is betting the wrong direction. However, futures have a built-in leverage. In the case of MGC, each $1 movement in gold price translate into $10 variance in futures account balance. Options have a non-linear payout diagram. As the contract moves deeper in-the-money, options value grows exponentially. Long-term Trading Ideas After the active central bank action period is over, will gold price trend up or down? What would be the primary driver of gold price? Inflation, US dollar, interest rate, economic growth, or geopolitical crisis? All are possible, maybe a little bit of each. My research reveals that gold price has a relatively stable relationship with WTI crude oil (CL). Over the past ten years, each 1,000 barrels of WTI (1 CL) sell at a price between 150 and 300 ounces of gold for about 80% of the time. We could visualize an oil producer wanting to be paid by gold. When dollar fluctuates, he would adjust the dollar selling price to keep his gold acquisition stable. Therefore, whenever the price range is breached, gold price has a strong tendency of falling back in. In the next writing, I would explore a convergence/divergence idea between GC and CL. Stay tuned! Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
2
XAUUSD 5TH MAR XAUUSD looking pretty similar to U.S. oil here for our Sunday analysis. We have a clear supply at the high of our swing, it's unmitigated with a clear level of imbalance. I'm looking for a clear bearish rejection from this zone to then look for either a run of the low on the larger time frame or a pullback from our demand areas highlighted below. If, for example, we don't hit this area of supply, I'll be looking for Long's from the areas of demand. Overall, both options add up to one move being overall sell off for gold. Current price action is bullish, so we need to see a clear reversal to confirm this. Make sure that you always use your confirmations to get into a trade and always be flexible with your analysis. Remember, sticking to your trading plan and consistently entering the same setups will bring you profitability. If you like this idea, drop us a boost and a comment down below. We hope you all have a profitable and successful trading week.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by PipSurfingSociety
BTC UPDATETwo scenarious to look out for... if the bulls take the horn we would see a recovery to test the 200 days moving average at around 23.3k. otherwise a breakdown would cost us another long wick down to 21.6k 🚨IMP Event to Watch in March 📈 - US CPI release on March 14th - FOMC meeting on March 22nd In the picture is also the Mt. Gox event. The distribution of funds to creditors of the defunct crypto exchange is set to kick off on March 10, 2023. Whats your perspective? do you think the bulls or bears would have more control over the market, cosidering these events and the overview market sentiment?
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by ReNLoG
DXY:A Temporary push to upsides as Yields riseHey Traders, today we have noticed a temporary push to upsides as treasury Yields near 5%, but that will not be enough to push DXY above the major trend again as we see the price have rejected the retrace zone along with the double top. so we expect that USD will resume the downsides and remain indecisive until the release of CPI so the market will have a more clear idea on Fed next actions. if CPI numbers are high that won't make fed happy so we'll expect further rate hikes and more of USD strength.. in the opposite sense if CPI numbers come low we can expect more of a weak dollar and less restrictive monetary Policy. Trade safe, Joe.
TVC:DXYShort
by JoeChampion
46
Sweet Divergence Since the start of January, most leading macro markets have experienced a reversal around their 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. However, BTC has shown resilience and fought the cross-asset sell-off. This divergence is likely driven by the fact that there has been over $1 trillion in net liquidity added to the market since the bottom in October, primarily driven by the People's Bank of China and the Bank of Japan, helping to off-set the damage the Fed is doing to risk-on assets such as the crypto market. Considering BTC tends to be somewhat of a liquidity sponge, it tends to outperform other assets when there is a boost in liquidity. However, the jury is still out on whether BTC's performance indicates the end of the bear market for crypto or a temporary outlier. Despite BTC's recent outperformance, it's still catching up to significant rallies in other markets between Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. An important note is that the S&P 500 has never seen a bear market bottom before the unemployment rate began to rise, and this is yet to be the case. Furthermore, the yield curve is currently the most deeply inverted it has been since the 1980s, ultimately signalling that long-term interest rates are lower than short-term interest rates. An inverted yield curve has been a perfect predictor of the last seven recessions since 1960, ultimately implying that it's likely the market isn't out of the woods yet. When yields and risk assets diverge, historical patterns suggest that other assets quickly catch up to the sell-off. Although yields have moved exponentially since last month's CPI data, markets expect them to stabilize at last year's high levels. It would likely take very hot inflation data and a significant rate hike following the next FOMC meeting on the 22nd of March to trigger the next leg lower for risk assets. Until then, BTC is expected to continue ranging, waiting for its next cue. In other news, a recent article by Forbes threw Binance into the fire after they released an alleged hit piece on the exchange and its founder, Changpeng Zhao (CZ). The article drew parallels between the exchange and the now-defunct FTX after Binance allegedly transferred $1.8 billion to hedge funds such as Tron, Amber Group and Alameda Research between August and December 2022. However, CZ then hit back at this, arguing that the article referred to some old transactions from Binance's clients. He then reiterated that the exchange always holds user funds 1:1 and that this can be referenced through Binance's proof-of-reserve system. From a technical perspective, it is clear from the weekly chart that Bitcoin has been trading between two significant demand and supply zones. The bulls will be hoping for a weekly close above the $25,000 supply zone, which would light the way towards the massive $28,800 to $30,000 resistance, the Head and Shoulders neckline. An important contributor to the bullish scenario is that EMA20 and EMA200 are beginning to converge, with a potential cross in the coming weeks. The importance of this should be considered, as EMA20 crossing below EMA200 back in September accurately predicted short-term market direction. Bears will rejoice at the fact that many traders believe that a final Elliot Wave 5 sell-off is to come. This would likely result in a break below the $15,500 - $16,500 November market bottom. As we advance, all eyes will be on the CPI data releases. U.S. CPI data on the 14th will likely dictate the outcome of the rate decision of the FOMC on the 22nd. Volatility will be high around these dates, so caution should certainly be exercised, especially in leveraged positions.
by Coinrule
2
Delayed bottom may finally arrive with CPI reportI have been waiting over a month for the reversal to finally complete. We are clearly on the path, but still need a few more things to occur to confirm that we are still in Primary wave B, but that it is near completion. IF we are still in Primary B (blue letters), we are likely in Intermediate wave C (purple letters) and Minor wave 3 (yellow numbers) was possibly completed with the with low early this morning. Next steps would be Minor wave 4 up and then Minor wave 5 down which completes the two macro waves (Intermediate and Primary) above it as well. Minor wave 4 should only last 1-2 days with a top below 4000. Target top is around 3982 by either tomorrow or Monday. We should then continue the final leg down with a drop of at least 130 points before March 16 and closer to March 14. I have use wave extensions based on historical data to attempt to determine these reversal points. The most narrow and smaller set of data is the probably Minor wave 4 retracement points. While the top could go above 4000, it most likely would not surpass 4053. The short timeline and lack of game-changing information will likely limit a powerful upside burst above 4000. The next set of extensions attempt to identify the end of Intermediate wave C based on the data for Intermediate waves A and B. This is the left most set of extensions that are at the top and bottom of the chart. Typically Intermediate wave C extends beyond 127.13% of Intermediate wave A, however, that move seems quite significant in the likely short period of time that remains. The bottom should move below 3764 which was the prior low from the end of December, but nothing more is required to closeout this wave. I am placing the lowest possible bottom around 3700 but it depends on the momentum which will be apparent by next Friday. This will continue to be evaluated The final set of extensions attempt to identify the end of Primary wave B based on the data from Primary wave A when compared to historical wave relationships. March 16th would tie the longest length relationship between a Primary wave A to Primary wave C. This also corresponds to the longer end of relationships for Intermediate wave A to Intermediate wave C. The extensions are the furthest set to the far right. In order to meet a 100% extension for Intermediate wave C, this would create around a minimum 50% retracement for Primary wave B from wave A. The extension ranges for this data are quite wide and my targeted forecast moves are around median movements which are easy targets to pick. I will re-evaluate late next week to see if Minor 4 occurred near the plan and if wave 5 had begun. Best case all of this finally occurs and we can finally end Primary wave B. A major change after the recent spat of declines would likely stem from a major event. The Fed doesn’t meet until after the 17th of March, but the CPI report is on the 14th. If the bottom occurs on or before the 14th it could be based on the set of data. A lower inflation reading could spur the rally and then the Fed confirms inflation is coming under control a week later further igniting the next rally. Primary wave C would start around 2 months later than originally predicted, but it would likely place the next market top in mid- to late-summer. I still forecast a nice top above 4400-4700 before my doom and gloom forecast which I will touch on later and can be found in my old forecasts going back almost a whole year now.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
AUDUSD Outlook 1st March 2023Overnight, the AUDUSD fluctuated between the 0.67 and 0.6760 price range as the DXY retraced lower but recovered in strength toward the end of the trading session. Early this morning, the AUD CPI was released at 7.4% (Forecast: 8.1% Previous: 8.4%) which was significantly lower than expected. This signals that the ongoing interest rate hikes from the RBA are taking effect in lowering inflation in Australia. However, a cost of the significant rate increases is the slowdown in the economy as the Australian GDP slid to 0.5% (Forecast: 0.8% Previous: 0.7%). The AUDUSD traded lower to test the 0.67 support level but rebound strongly to the upside, testing the bearish trendline. If the price breaks above the trendline, the AUDUSD could see further moves higher toward the near-term resistance area of 0.6780 before continuing with the downtrend, retesting the 0.67 round number support level and breaking below that. Beyond 0.67, the next key support level is 0.6630.
Short
by JinDao_Tai