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CPI

Looking ahead into February 2023 (DXY)Through January the DXY traded to the downside following the release of several positive key economic data, increasing the market sentiment that the US Federal Reserve would pivot from its current monetary policy stance, to slow down/stop further interest rate hikes. Notable US news events in January -Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) was greater than expected (Actual: 223k Forecast: 200k), while wage inflation fell (Actual: 0.3% Forecast: 0.4%), together with the unemployment rate (Actual: 3.5% Forecast: 3.7%). This caused the DXY to reverse strongly from the 105.60 price area to trade steadily lower, down to the 103 price level. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released at 6.5% (Previous: 7.1%) which indicated a slowdown in inflation growth for the US economy. Again, another factor that signaled the potential for a slowdown in future rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve, with markets forming the view that previous interest rate hikes are starting to take effect, slowing down inflation growth. The DXY broke through the 103 support level to trade within the current range. Since mid-January, the DXY has been trading between the price range of 101.50 and 102.50 as the price consolidates just above the key support level of 101.30 (the previous swing low from June 2022) So, where could the DXY move to in February? Volatility for the DXY is likely to come early in the month due to these news events 1) Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, and FOMC Press Conference on 2nd February. The Feds are widely expected to hike rates by 25bps to take interest rates to 4.75%. Pay more attention to the accompanying statement and press conference for hints (keyword: sufficiently restrictive) and guidance (keyword: peak rates) over future interest rate decisions. The previous Federal Reserve rates decision in December saw the DXY trade slightly lower, forming a base along the 103.50 support level before trading higher a day later toward the 104.80 price level. A similar move could be anticipated, upon the release of the news, with the DXY possibly trading lower to test the key support level of 101.30 before potentially trading higher toward the 103 resistance level. 2) The NFP this month is unlikely to have a similar impact to what happened in January. This is because, with the current unemployment rate at 3.5% and wage growth at 0.3%, it would be unlikely that the data could be released significantly better. Therefore, IF the DXY does trade higher to the 103 resistance level after the Fed's interest rate decision, a "non-event" on the NFP could see the price continue to trade higher. 3) After the NFP, the next key economic data to be released is the CPI data on the 14th of February. If the data continues to show a slowdown in inflation growth (lower than 6.5%), this could have a significant impact on bringing the DXY lower again. While there will be other news events throughout the month ahead, which will cause prices to spike or dip briefly, the 3 discussed above would most likely be the key factors to determine the next directional bias of the DXY. Beyond the 101.30 support level, the next key support area is at the round number level of 100.00. The immediate resistance level is at 103.00 and the next key resistance level above that is 105.50.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
7
$BTC - Critical level, where will CPI take us?#BTCUPDATE Had my head in the 1hr charts so much lately I completely ignored the fact we broke the 200EMA and are retesting it whilst say on some key price support. This does not mean definite bounce but it does mean we are going to see a bit of a decision here. We could see a bounce and it will likely lead to a pretty big rally. Although losing will be pretty bad news. With CPI data coming out it makes perfect sense that we will hold here till closer to announcement and then decision will be made after. Had my head in the 1hr charts so much lately I completely ignored the fact we broke the 200EMA and are retesting it whilst say on some key price support. This does not mean definite bounce but it does mean we are going to see a bit of a decision here. We could see a bounce and it will likely lead to a pretty big rally. Although losing will be pretty bad news. With CPI data coming out it makes perfect sense that we will hold here till closer to announcement and then decision will be made after.
by Kryptochristian
BITCOIN showing some Bullish Divergence on the 3 HRBTC holding above $21500 (On the Edge! Just had a wik down to $21455!), looks to be some Bullish Divergence... It shows Divergence all the way up to about the 12 HR (Tiny one) and the daily (Micro one) LOL! Looking for a move tomorrow with the Inflation numbers. Can we get some Valentines Day love to the upside? We'll see... <--- Lots of Negative talk all over News & social so it may start making a move in the opposite direction. This is what happens when there is too much Hype for one direction IMO. Good Luck Out There!
by BuddaCo_LifeStyle
Break Down: Analysis of The DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, US100 & MoreIn this video, we'll take a closer look at the charts we covered in our last live session, updating and explaining our analysis. Our focus will be on the following currency pairs: DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, EURCAD, and US100. We're currently seeing a lot of potential for dollar strength, but it's important to keep an eye on the upcoming CPI release on Tuesday, as it could create some volatility in the markets. As a simple rule of thumb, when inflation is up, the dollar tends to strengthen, and when inflation is down, the dollar tends to weaken. However, it's not always that simple, and it's important to pay attention to the details. When evaluating the CPI data, consider the following: how much it beat or missed the estimate, whether there is mixed data, if the data was as expected, and any revisions to the previous numbers. Additionally, pay attention to the rhetoric of central bank members after the release, as this can also impact market sentiment. Our analysis of the downside trades is closely tied to the inflation data release. A strong beat in inflation would likely result in successful trades. However, a significant miss in the data could invalidate many of these trades. If you're currently not in any trades, it may be wise to wait until after the CPI release. While it's tempting to try and get ahead of the market by positioning yourself, the risk of getting caught in a ranging market before the event could result in significant losses. It may be better to wait for a clearer direction after the release. Join us as we navigate through these charts and look for possible trades in the market. Let's stay vigilant and make informed decisions.
TVC:DXYShort
by natron
USDJPY LONG ANALYSIS TO $139📈The Dollar Yen has completed its fifth wave to the downside, marking the completion of its first major wave (Wave 1). This will now be followed by a 3 sub-wave correction back towards the upside, which counts as Wave 2. Targeting $139 - $140. Similar to all other markets correlating positively to the DXY, USDJPY is only facing a temporary upside, before the bears later take control📉 760 PIPS profit from current market price. Only suitable for big accounts, who can handle swing trading. Make sure to drop a follow and like. Let me know if you agree with this bias✅
Long
by BA_Investments
XAUUSD weekly biasSo XAUUSD has shown us in the last week that it may have to downside potential... this is due to the tap into supply above along with a breakdown of some of our midterm structures, we have yet to confirm this downtrend so we don't want to bank on it just yet... With the CPI looming and a heavy FVG above we could be set to clear some gaps and head lower, Of course, this is dependent on the CPI results, but overall we are looking for possible bearish moves lower. Remember, overall gold is in an uptrend, so we could just see the price continuing in that movement. But if we see a clear reaction at one of our points of supply above, then we could look to take price short. If we see Price had lower in the beginning of the week, this would make me believe that an upward shift coming in the latter half of the week is very probable. If we see an upward shift at the beginning of the week with a consolidation midweek, we could see the drop coming for the CPI. As per all trade ideas, we will be watching this on a lower time frame to establish whether price truly wants to move in the direction we believe.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by PipSurfingSociety
US-oil weekly bias West Texas oil/ U.S. oil. It looks like it may want to push up towards the higher area of supply which has been left unmitigated... Based on the moves we saw last week, which were predominantly bullish towards the end of the week, lead me to believe we could be hunting the high levels of liquidity that lie above our previous highs. If this is the case, it will take us directly into the unmitigated daily supply that we have highlighted. After tapping into the area of demand and sweeping a previous low, we have left impulsively to the upside, therefore leading me to believe upside movements may persist. As per all of our markups, we'll be watching this on a smaller time frame to determine which direction it truly wants to move in, but on the daily and four-hour timeframes, you can see we have broken clear structures to the downside whilst still moving towards the high of our daily range. With the CPI coming this week, we can effectively say that we will see some shifts in this pair. Overall my bias on this is long, but I would like to see a clear confirmation to take the trade. Once the move to the upside is complete, I believe we could see further downside for the US oil industry. Fundamentally, this pair does not correlate with what we're seeing in true price, which essentially could lead us into a bullish move if areas of supply that are shown on the daily do not hold. **Be aware we have a smaller time frame area of supply just above where the price is currently, which is not shown in this markup**
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by PipSurfingSociety
GBPJPY weekly bias British pound to the Japanese yen is currently sandwiched in between an area of supply in an area of demand. The area of demand is the larger of the two POI's But both have an effect on the market... Coming into this week, you can see we have two large areas of liquidity, one below and one above. I believe the larger time frame is looking to go bearish. With this in mind, I would like to see a pullback to fill the fair value gap above as well as tap into the area of supply you can see highlighted. As shown on the smaller time frame perspective, we have an area of supply and an area of demand sitting above and below the price which could affect the direction it moves in short term, My preferred move for this would be a short-term sweep of the lows with a longer term pullback to fill the fair value gap above. But as always, we will watch this in a smaller time frame to see which direction it truly wants to travel in. I will be looking for a long to a short idea on this. Based on what we see in the first couple of sessions. At present, our main breaks are structured to the downside, hence why I would prefer to see a longer-term down move.
by PipSurfingSociety
EURUSD possible downside movesEuro to the US dollar is tapping into a daily demand, just like the other U.S. dollar pairs we have shown in our Sunday markups. We have only broken short-term structures. To the downside on the floor our time frame. So more downside is possible. But without taking a major low we can't rush into any long-term ideas just yet. If we see a significant pullback and a reaction from one of our areas of supply above, then we can look to go short. As stated in our other markups, we had the CPI coming this week, so we will see some shifts in this market. Understanding a short-term structural break does not tell you a long-term trend is going to be a key point of this week. Overall I am looking for short ideas on this, but I won't be taking any unless we have a very clear indication that sellers are present. As stated in our other mark-ups, we will be looking at smaller timeframes to find possible downside moves, but I am expecting a retrace for this pair the same as the British pound to the US dollar. How this pair reacts on retrace is going to determine what we can expect for the next session. Lower, we have a fair value gap along with an unmitigated area of demand. So seeing how Price reacted, this area is going to be interesting.
Short
by PipSurfingSociety
GBPUSD possible downside movesAs shown in our Australian to U.S. dollar markup, we were in a pretty similar situation with the British pound to the US dollar. The only big difference with this pair is that we haven't broken any significant structures to the downside yet. I'd like to see the structure broken to the downside or liquidity to be taken from above before a new structural low is made. my overall bias is bearish for this pair but seeing the heavy amount of liquidity sitting above with equal highs on the four hour time frame and daily time frame, leads me to believe there could be some more upside potential for this. As well as no confirmation is given to the downside yet due to no break of structure, we have to keep an open mind for this pair. Overall I would like to see short movements and we will be monitoring the smaller timeframes for possible entries lower, but at the same time, we won't be making any rash decisions and getting caught in any traps. As mentioned in our AUD markup, we have the CPI coming this week. So we may see some significant shifts whether it be to the upside or the downside.
by PipSurfingSociety
AUDUSD bias 12th febAs shown in our markup, we've tapped into a supply on the daily time frame. After tapping into this supply, we've broken the structure to the downside on a four-hour basis. This leads me to believe that coming this week we may see further downside for the Australian to U.S. dollar. We have the CPI news this week, as well as a couple of other news events, These could be the catalyst to push this pair further to the downside. We will be looking on a smaller time frame for possible entries lower... As always, we will monitor this to see if any entries are given, but as an overall bias we are expecting bearish movements for this pair.
Short
by PipSurfingSociety
Flynns Log Feb 10th 2023The bulls and bears in the stock market are like two siblings always fighting over who's right. The bulls are the optimists, always saying "the market is going up! Buy, buy, buy!" while the bears are the pessimists, growling "the market is going down! Sell, sell, sell!" It's like a never-ending game of "he said, she said". But in all seriousness, these two forces play a crucial role in determining the direction of the market and their constant back-and-forth creates an environment of volatility and unpredictability. It's like watching a comedic ping-pong match, with prices bouncing up and down like a ball. One minute the bulls are charging ahead and the next minute the bears are bringing them down. It's all in good fun, but always remember to do your research and make informed investment decisions. 2 weeks ago, I was expecting the market to front run a test on the 20D and that didn’t happen. I took to twitter and offered a bullish analysis for this week with a warning to use TLT as a directional bias. I didn’t take my own advice and positioned only bullish yesterday knowing there would be a strong push to front fun the 20D prior to CPI/OPEX I took a loosing strangle on the 8th (yellow box) which set me up for loosing calls only on the 9th. Premarket should have been a clue, but it was a fake front running of a Vanna Rally. And the drive through the open gap was the signal the weeks low would be next. Sitting at about 4081.50 Open on SPX where I expect to base here at the Keep Calm and 4k On Line The market is still at a point of technically weaker flows. This is just Market Crash Game Theory. Anyone in volatility should have at least 1 or 2 crash scenarios. I wouldn’t ever recommend anyone trading crash theories. Take it from experience, it’s a fools errand to try and predict a market crash and prosper from it. I’m looking for support at 4050-4100 SPX range while the market digests the move lower and prepares for CPI. My only position is OTM puts for March that I plan to hold through Feb expiry and roll into June if they don’t print. Based on the price action for the last few days I’m expecting a realignment to the lower end of 4k for the rest of the year. The messaging from FOMC is not lining up with a bullish trend into summer. A hot CPI number will force the markets to reposition lower for no rate cuts in 2023. But that doesn’t mean we plunge to the depths of financial hell either. ---- It Begins ------- Listen, I started a new project called The Grid. It’s fintech. It will be focused on Options Education, Gamma, Vanna, Dealer Positioning, IV and Options history along with extra stuff like Hedged Equity Position tracking and members only Trading View indicators. I don’t have the options data capability in trading view to push these indicators any further. I’ll be launching an early registration site this weekend. It will be free for founding members.
SP:SPXShort
by SPYvsGME