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GOLD SHORT TERM INTRADAY IDEAIntraday Analysis - ( 9 FEB 2023 ) Price still trading in a range, range plays are always valid however will be looking for break outs in days to come. HRHR sells 1902 / 1897 regions MRMR sells breaking back below 1876 Safest sells below 1860 A break of 1860s, will be targeting minimally 1830s giving us a solid 300+ pips with 1845 as a first target. Scalp buys are valid in this range however will be more incline to take buys above 1886.5. HOWEVER LOOK OUT FOR 1890 PSYCHOLOGICAL KEY LEVEL.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by CJ_GOLDPIPS
2
Powell Speech hawkishPowell's speech may set the tone for Dollar to have a short term rally. I am still Bearish Dollar long term. But having heard what he said yesterday, it may give investors some sense of bullishness. At the moment and for this week, watching if DXY can really rally above the Weekly zone, and upside draw towards the Daily Volume Imbalance. Right now, its risk off scenario for DXY. How DXY behave inside this Weekly zone is kind of key. It may just consolidate till next week's US CPI, which is very possible. Just my thoughts. Trader Sifu Steve @ XeroAcademy Malaysia
TVC:DXY
by XeroAcademy
2
Nasdaq: Short-term bull Long-term rangeWhy market is entering into short-term bullishness again and latter uncertainty or range? We will do both technical and fundamental analysis in this video tutorial, and we will see how both analyses can affirm each other. Refer to the related video link, I explained at greater length. Or you can always visit my YouTube channel. Content: . Why market is entering into a short-term bullishness? (Fundamental & Technical studies) . Subsequently the market will enter into a range (Fundamental & Technical studies) CME Micro Nasdaq Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.25 = $0.50 1 = $2 10 = $20 100 = $200 1000 = $2,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by konhow
10
Fight or Flight?On February 1st, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a widely-expected 25bps rate hike. This was the rallying cry for the current market rally to continue. Is this confidence warranted? An interesting note is that the FOMC meeting minutes and the associated press conference appeared contradictory in nature because there was not a straightforward hawkish or dovish narrative across both. The statement was hawkish. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Powell’s language in the press conference was remarkably dovish, describing the disinflation process as having started and as "encouraging and gratifying". This was the point that markets took as the signal to continue the recent rally. Precious metals, equities, and risk assets have all seen significant post-meeting relief. The first innings of a recession always appear to be somewhat of a soft landing in which inflation and growth begin to slow gradually. Yesterday’s meeting echoed the idea that recent indicators point to a modest increase in spending and that inflation has eased, precisely what the first innings of a recession would predict. As markets, potentially shortsightedly, adopt the soft landing narrative, the Fed’s lack of pushback against easier financial conditions added fuel to the fire. Given this, it is doubtful that markets will stop rallying until one of two cases occurs: First, if data comes in hot, it potentially frightens markets into thinking the Fed will turn back hawkish and raise rates more than the recently observed 25bps hike. The second scenario is the other extreme. Should data start coming in highly recessionary with lower inflation and weak growth, this will eliminate all believers in the soft landing narrative, thus halting the rally. However, at present, it looks like the market rally of 2023 could continue until either of these scenarios happen. An important thing to note is that whenever inflation has exceeded 5% in the past, it has never come back down without the Federal Funds Rate exceeding the rate of CPI inflation. Considering the Federal Funds Rate is currently between 4.5% and 4.75% whilst CPI inflation is at 6.5%, more rate hikes are on the horizon unless data comes in highly recessionary. CPI data on the 14th of February will provide significant insight into whether or not the Fed will follow the likes of the European Central Bank & Bank of England and go with a 50bps hike rather than a 25bps hike. Another important thing to note is that Apple , Amazon , and Alphabet (the parent company of Google ) all missed earnings last night. If three of the world's largest companies missed earnings, it does not breed confidence for economic hopes of avoiding a recession. One thing seems certain, the S&P500 is likely to take a hit when the NYSE opens later today.
by Coinrule
22
Everyone Believes What They Want to BelieveRealty != Belief The secret to this market is to lower your expectation continually. Bulls do not realize they are sitting in the largest bull trap ever setup. Macro bottom still pending... it's more of the same: drop, consolidate, drop. A wise Bera once said: Resistance is infinite and unbounded. When a level is broken, there will always be more resistance higher up. Support is not though, support is capped at 0. The Fed's view: www.federalreserve.gov What does the Beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of a soft landing? "It would be unprecedented for job vacancies (openings) to decline by a large amount without the economy falling into recession. We are, in effect, saying that something unprecedented can occur." Lagging Crash Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008. The broader stock market did not begin its crash until a week later. Everyone initially thought Lehman wasn't a systemic risk. You say crypto crash can not crash stocks with a LAG? The doom loop is accelerating. Few understand this.
AMEX:VEUShort
by shri30389
3
You Can Have the Cake and Eat it TooCBOT: Treasury Yield Spread 10Y-2YY ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ), Micro Dow ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ), Micro S&P ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%. The move marked the eighth consecutive hikes that have began in March 2022. The overnight risk-free rate is now at its highest level since October 2007. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sends mixed signals in his post-FOMC meeting news conference but appears more dovish comparing to previous speeches. The Committee thinks that “on-going increases in the target range will be appropriate”. These words send stocks down minutes after the speech begins at 2:30PM. However, during the Q&A session, when the Fed Chair confirms, for the first time, that “the disinflationary process has started,” the stock market rebounds strongly and finishes in the positive territory for the day. Other mixed messages: • Inflation data shows a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of increases; • It would be “very premature to declare victory or to think we really got this”; • It’s “possible” that the funds rate could stay lower than 5%; • Unlikely the Fed would cut rates this year unless inflation comes down more rapidly. Actions speak louder than words. In two rate-setting meetings, the Fed has slowed the pace from 75 bps to 25 bps. The path is not likely to reverse, and future rate hikes will come down to just two options, either 0 or 25 bps. In my opinion, the terminal rate will end at 5% or 5.25% after the March and May meeting. In recent months, the “Risk” button has been pressed on for risky assets: • The Dow is up 19% since October, and the S&P and the Nasdaq are up 17% and 18% for the same period, respectively; • Gold futures rallies 21% since November, while Bitcoin jumps 58%; • Tesla and Ark Innovation ETF gain 47% and 33% year-to-date, respectively. Historically, it’s rare for the stock market to dip two years or more in a row. For the S&P 500, it only happened four times in the last 100 years. The odds favor stock investors in the Year of Rabbits after a brutal double-digit selloff in 2022. Fed rate hikes and high inflation are like a brake that decelerated the running economy car. Now that the driver’s foot is off the brake, will the economy improve immediately? Not so fast. We will endure higher costs for months to come. Take the example of food items, once the price goes up, it usually stays up for the year. Sometimes, suppliers resolve to reducing the size of package for the illusion of keeping the same price, a tactic known as “Shrinkflation”. Wages, rent, phone bill, cable TV, utility, homeowner association fees and sales tax also seldom go down. All these point to a sticky inflation. Without massive government stimulus to press the gas pedal, subdued growth is on the horizon. However, the stock market is forward looking. Investors already see an "invisible foot" on the accelerator and begin buying in the dip. On balance, I’m bullish about risky assets, but would consider protecting my investments carefully. The inversed yield curve is a proven and tested signal of a potential recession. The 10Y-2Y Treasury yield spread is at -64 bps after the Fed rate decision. The yield spread turned negative last July and stayed below zero in the last seven months. Major crises could break out unexpectedly, crashing our party. The year-long Russia-Ukraine conflict could intensify, tensions in the Taiwan Strait could escalate, and the US government might not be able to avoid a national debt default. A Hedged Position on Stock Index Futures We could consider using the CME Micro E-mini S&P futures to establish a bullish position on the U.S. stock market. The June contract MESM3 is currently quoted at 4177, which is 58 points above the cash index. To protect my position from any adverse market movement, an out-of-the-money put option could be placed at the 3950-strike. If you are more pessimistic, a lower strike of 3840 may be considered. The benefit of futures over cash index ETFs lies with the leverage. With a smaller margin deposit upfront, investment return could be amplified if the market moves in your favor. The downside is that the loss will also ramp up quickly if the market moves against you. Put options protect us from any downfall below the strike price. Unlike futures, the maximum loss from a long options position is the premium you have paid upfront. A combination of long futures and long put options is, in theory, limited downside with unlimited upside. The risk and return tradeoff are asymmetry in this case. As a result, you can have the cake and eat it too! Happy trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
9
BTC Futures Rising Wedge Forming, confluence with newsI frequently chart the BTC CME Futures chart alongside a normal BTC Exchange chart. The difference between them is that CME is closed for the weekend and operated by a regulated group. This means the CME chart can frequently show different trends/patterns as it removed a lot of the noise, unnecessary wicks, etc that can come from exchanges trading over the weekend. I'm watching the early stages of this rising wedge forming. It's a bit early to call it a confirmed pattern still but worth putting on the radar. I often like to find confluence in charts aligning with news; I don't trade news but news is often a perfect catalyst for patterns to breakout. So what I have shown in the chart is a pattern that comes to an apex in about a week's time. And we have February right around the corner with a lot of news coming out, specifically the FOMC meeting minutes releasing on February 1st. This would be the perfect catalyst to create some volatility, quickly eliminate overleveraged longs and shorts, and then push for a pattern break of the rising wedge. Marking this idea as short as I am bearish overall and ready for a market reset, but note that this chart displays an idea where BTC gets one more push higher at the beginning of this week. Happy to answer any questions people have on this idea!
CME:BTC1!Short
by Obscure_Trading
AUDUSD Moving Into Technical Resistance After CPIAUD is the mover of the day after CPI yoy jumped unexpectedly to 8.4% in Australia up from 7.3%. Thats big and can potentially mean that RBA will be foreced to raise rates further. AUDUSD is moving aggressively higher, but still trading at some key resistance levels here, with fifth wave. A lot of major currenices are trading at resistance vs USD, so if suddenly USD index would rally, then Aussie can come back down, but would most likely suffer less than others. From a longer term perspective we see AUDUSD clearly in bullish mode for much more upside, but ideally after a higher degree pullback.
by ew-forecast
1
Crude oil a leading inflation indicatorTwo observation made the last two years between crude oil and CPI: 1) There were 5 waves up and 2) 3 significant peaks However, between the last 2 peaks of crude, it was a lower low follow-by its downtrend, and CPI followed this downtrend subsequently. Among many commodities, crude oil moves the most in tandem with CPI, but crude seems to lead in this study. Refer to the daily chart on your own, try drawing a downtrend line, you will see crude oil prices has broken above its downtrend line recently. If crude oil is going to transit to an uptrend from here, we will have to track CPI very closely. The inflation fear is still there. Did a video on this observation last week, refer to the link below. Crude Oil Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.01 = $10 0.10 = $100 1.00 = $1,000 10.00 = $10,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by konhow
2
JICPT|DXY is on the verge of rebound on the weeklyHello everyone. Dollar index has retreated from the high around 114 created in late September when investors expected inflation would be cooling soon. To make it clear, I also inserted U.S core CPI year-over-year data on the weekly chart. You can refer to the purple line. Obviously, The dollar index moved in line with the CPI data. Both topped around the same time. When we looked at the DXY rising angle, we can see it accelerated to the upside since March 16, 2022, when Fed raised interest rate for the first time since the pandemic by 25bps. The main driving force behind the move is inflation. So what's next after the Dollar index took a dive of 50%. From my point of view, the index may held above 100 for a while(relative strong) until inflation is confirmed to go back to the 2% target. That may happen in the H2 2023. The reasons are below: 1. After the dramatic move, sellers need to take a rest around key zones(fib 50-61.8%) 2. Dollar index has been over sold. 3. 100 combined with a strong demand zone is likely to prevent it from further drop. If I'm right, there will be short opportunities for gold, and other currencies, e.g., EUR. What do you think? Give me a like if you're with me.
INDEX:DXYLong
by JICPT
The Revival In the past two weeks, the market has seen a significant increase in bullish momentum leading many to believe that the proposed ‘echo bubble’ that many predicted for 2023 may indeed play out. It was initially unclear what was driving this momentum but the market gaining confidence that CPI will continue to decrease, as well as a temporary liquidity increase thanks to the ongoing US Debt Ceiling increase crisis, seem to be important factors. The U.S. CPI data published on the 12th of February was in line with expectations with a 0.1% reduction. There is evidence to suggest that if CPI inflation continues to fall in 0.1% increments M/M, and if recessionary predictions play out as expected, then the FED could potentially hit its 2% Y/Y target as soon as May. An important thing to note is that this was the last CPI print that will be calculated based on the current methodology that considers two years of data. February’s data will be calculated on a single year of data meaning that future 2023 CPI prints will be based on consumption in 2021 alone. Considering 2021 data instead of 2020 and 2021 will likely bring the upcoming CPI numbers down leading analysts to believe that the FED is indeed engineering a pivot. One event that could temporarily put a halt to the rally is that Genesis, the parent company of Grayscale, is said to be planning to apply for chapter 11 bankruptcy as soon as this week. It’s worth noting that the discount on $GBTC has widened to -43% over recent days after it had climbed back up to -36.5% following the December lows. Many analysts feel that the market already has this event priced in, however, it is certainly something to keep an eye on. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin broke out from the falling wedge pattern and ripped above $20,000. Bulls will be hoping for a weekly close above the $21,000 resistance which would light the way towards $28,700 which is the prior head and shoulders neckline and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the $3,782 2020 low to $69,000 2021 high. Bears will support the prediction of Elliot Wave theory that the observed rally is part of a Wave 4 correction. This means the market could potentially still have a Wave 5 selloff to come which would test the lows. The above Bitcoin weekly chart shows that the bullish momentum the market is experiencing in 2023 lies within the boundaries of Wave 4 meaning that the market may not be not out of the woods yet. An important event to watch in the coming weeks is the FOMC meeting on the 1st of February. Following this meeting, the FED will release projections for the Federal Funds Rate in the coming quarters which will have a significant bearing on the short-run market direction. Volatility will be high around this time and caution should be exercised when entering positions.
by Coinrule
1
Correlation – Crude Oil & CPIStudies indicated Crude Oil is the best indicator to track the current inflation. It is also a leading indicator to inflation numbers? If that is true, we will have to track the crude oil prices very closely. Content: i. The most inline commodity with CPI ii. Can the Crude Oil track CPI? iii. Direction of Crude Oil Crude Oil Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.01 = $10 0.10 = $100 1.00 = $1,000 10.00 = $10,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by konhow
7
Cable Pushing Higher After UK CPI Data Cable is back in an uptrend after a capitulation back in September, with the current price making some extended move up after breaking above 1.2 psychological level. We see Cable unfolding a five-wave bullish impulse from the lows, with more upside coming after recent pullback from the highs that unfolded as a correction. Ideally, that was subwave four that can not send the price back into an uptrend after a break above 1.2150 resistance. Ideally thats now the beginning of a new fifth wave higher. Some spectators are also betting on GBP as they believe BoE should be more hawkish with CPI at 10.5%.
by ew-forecast
Putting All Your Eggs in One BasketCME: Pork Cutout ( CME:PRK1! ), CBOT: Corn ( CBOT:ZC1! ), Soybean Meal ( CBOT:ZM1! ) Diversification is a fundamental concept in investing. In order to minimize the chances that market volatility wipes out your entire net worth, it is important to put your money in several investments with different levels of risk and potential return. This is summarized nicely in a single phrase – “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket”. In 2022, however, if you have followed this time-honored advice and allocated your money carefully across major assets, you would have lost money! Why did diversification fail this time? Let’s look at the annual return by major investment category: • Stock Market: S&P 500, -13.9%, Nasdaq 100, -25.5% • Bond Market: 2-Year T-Notes, +6.7%, 10-Year T Notes: -10.6% • Precious Metals: Gold, -6.9%, Silver, +8.8% • Currencies: US dollar index, +6.7%, Euro, -4.1%, British Pound: -9.9% • Energy: WTI crude oil, +1.2%, Henry Hub natural gas, -12.7% • Agricultural Commodities: Wheat, -1.9%, Corn, +11.3% • Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, -53.3%, ETH, -55.4% A diversified portfolio is not necessarily low risk. In time of distress, assets thought to have low correlation could all move in the same direction – going down. Last year, geopolitical crisis, high inflation and central bank tightening took turns driving financial markets lower. When a major crisis breaks out, all correlation goes to 1. This happened in 1998, when the Russian debt default took down Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), the largest hedge fund in the world. It repeated in 2007 and 2008, when the subprime crisis bankrupted Bear Stern and Lehman Brothers, the mighty Wall Street investment banks. It also wiped out the entire asset class in credit default swaps and exotic mortgage-backed securities. In this past year, troubles in one crypto Exchange, FTX, drove all cryptocurrencies down. Bitcoin, Ethereum and stablecoins all lost value by half, even though the decentralized nature of the crypto market design is supposed to prevent this from happening. The Soaring Egg Price Ironically, if you put all your eggs in one basket, figurately, your investment would have doubled! According to price data reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Large Shell Eggs, Grade A, have average retail price at $4.25 per dozen across US cities at the end of December, up 112% for the year. A portfolio of shell eggs beats the return of all 15 assets listed above, by a wide margin! A new term, Eggflation , has been invented to capture this phenomenon. Americans in recent years have increased egg consumption while reducing intake of red meat in their diet, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Interesting statistics : the total flock of egg-laying hens in the U.S. is around 320 million, almost matching the population of people. Each grown hen could lay as many as 320 eggs a year. And each of us eats about as many eggs as one hen can lay in a year. Egg consumption has grown in part because more families are eating them as their main protein diet. As demand for eggs has risen, chicken production in the U.S. has slumped as we are currently experiencing the most severe avian (bird) flu epidemic in the US history. Nearly 58 million chickens have been infected with bird flu as of January 6th, according to the USDA. Infected birds must be slaughtered, causing egg supplies to fall and egg prices to surge. So far, the total flock of egg-laying hens is down about 5% from its normal size, as farmers work hard to replace their flocks as soon as they can after an outbreak. On average, new-birth chicks take four months to grow into egg-laying hens. Egg prices are not likely to fall in coming months until decease-free hens are fully grown. While US CPI has cooled to 6.5% in December, inflation for food items is much higher at 10.4%. Eggs are just one of many food staples that skyrocketed in price in 2022. Margarine costs in December surged 44% from a year ago, while butter rose 31%, according to the CPI data. Egg Futures Contracts in the US and in China CME Group, the world’s largest Derivatives Exchange, traced its root to the Chicago Butter and Egg Board founded in 1898. Standardized egg futures contract started trading in 1919, as the Exchange reorganized as Chicago Mercantile Exchange. CME egg futures were actively traded for sixty years. As the egg industry consolidated and egg prices stabilized over the years, the contract was delisted in 1982. In November 2013, China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange launched its own Egg Futures. The contract is based on 5 metric tons of shell eggs. As a consultant, I assisted DCE in contract launch as well as ongoing support. On January 13th, daily trading volume of DCE egg futures was 98,893 lots, with open interest standing at 204,202 contracts. A Case for Intermarket Spread The huge surge in egg prices amplifies the market risks for egg industry. Without the price discovery function at the futures market, farmers would have a hard time projecting future price trend. They rely on cash market prices to make production decisions. It takes four months to grow chicks into egg-laying age. Each commercially-raised hen will lay eggs for 1-1/2 years before being slaughtered. For each flock, farmers face price risks for up to two years. The main feed ingredients, corn and soybean meal, could be hedged with CBOT futures contracts. But egg and chicken prices are exposed naked. Farmers are rapidly expanding their flocks as egg price skyrocketed. At some point, there will be too many chickens in the henhouse, causing egg price to crash. Maybe an egg futures contract could make a big difference. I think it is time to bring back the CME egg futures. Until then, you could consider intermarket spread if you want to participate in the market: Buy Pork Cutout (PRK) and Sell Corn (ZC) and Soybean Meal (ZM) futures. August PRK rose 14% from October and currently prices at 30% above the front February contract. • Like Hog Margins, this intermarket spread attempts to capture the profit margins in egg production. This is based on projected up trend in both pork and egg prices. A second intermarket spread is to Buy DCE Egg Futures (JD) and Sell CBOT Corn (ZC) and Soybean Meal (ZM) futures, if you could trade the Chinese futures market. Finally, you could buy shell eggs in cash market and store them in a cold storage. You would make money if future egg price surge could cover the storage cost. Happy trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:PRKQ2023Long
by JimHuangChicago
9
FX + ECONOMY | EVENT - WEEKLY PREVIEW | KW03 |In today's article, we will go into all the important events, which are scheduled in the economic calendar, for the next week. > Calendar week | 03 - - - 16. January 2023 – 20. January 2023 Let's briefly discuss what the listed events mean for your personal trading. > When you want to trade a currency pair, you should always be careful that you do not accidentally get into an "event". > These events can end in random volatility, which technical analysis does not respect, and therefore a possible loss. > A strategy of "Market-Makers" is to liquidate both sides (short | long) to the event and then continue the participated direction. MONDAY > CAD | 10:30 p.m. | BOC = Business Outlook Survey TUESDAY > GBP | 02:00 a.m. | Employment change + unemployment rate > EUR | 05:00 a.m. | GER Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices > CAD | 08:30 a.m. | CPI = Consumer Price Index > USD | 08:30 a.m. | Change in manufacturing index WEDNESDAY > GBP | 02:00 a.m. | CPI = Consumer Price Index > USD | 08:30 a.m. | Retail Sales > AUD | 07:30 p.m. | Employment change + unemployment rate THURSDAY > Nothing to relevant FRIDAY > CAD | 08:30 a.m. | Retail sales Wednesday will be among certainly the most volatile, with the release of the American "retail sales", at 08:30. MARKET INFLUENCE Each of these dates, leads in the respective currency pair, to high / moderate volatility. > Events that make the overall market volatile are mostly related to the USD. = This is due to the fact that the USD has a position as an indirect world currency through global acceptance and thus has significant influence on the other currency pairs / economy. To use an example to explain the influence of the USD on other currency pairs, let's look at the DXY (USD index). The DXY is composed of the pairs: EUR (57.6%), JPY (13.6%), GBP (11.9%), CAD (9.1%), SEC (4.2%) + CHF (3.6%) When a positive metric is published for the USD = its value rises. = The pressure on the currencies in the DXY basket increases. = Thus they are "negatively" valued by traders. = Sell-off In summary, the higher the country's opinion on the global economy, the greater impact it takes on the overall market. > Feel free to share in the comments, about the impact of this week's appointments. > Sharing your perspective allows each of us to improve. If this explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a rating. Thank you and happy trading! ZIEL IST DIE AUTARKIE | THE GOAL IS SELF-SUFFICIENCY
TVC:DXY
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
USOIL | DECRYPTERS | US OILHi people Welcome to our OIL Analysis We put Our Technical and Fundamental Analysis together So both can be Combined 1- My Political Aspect is FED wanted to show people that their polices are working the oil prices will move inflation again. 2- Strength of USD was keeping US inflation low relative to Other countries ,but if USD get deep dive more it'll also fuel the inflation. 3- If US make USD more strong they can buy oil at cheaper prices i Really think it will go for that , Four our Technical point of view look our Dxy Analysis.
FXOPEN:XTIUSDLong
by DECRYPTERS
Morning Update- The Yens For The WinI don't have much to say about this week's trading except, glad it went the way it did and CPI data helped price move this week. I took advantage of a few Japanese Yen trades. My hopes is that you did too. In my humble opinion, they moved better to me than most currency pairs did. So, yay! It's the Yen's for the win! Now to update. Most Yen pairs made new lows. This is the best time to update your charts to find an opportunity to possible sell again, if your strategy meshes with the recent movement of course. I'd love to see fullbacks via the daily timeframe before I enter another longterm swing again, but thats just me. Be well. Happy Friday. Enjoy your weekend. I'll see you all Sunday night at 8:00 pm EST. for another live stream. -Shaquan
Short
by ShaquanLopez
4
CPI & Inflation Rate USHello everyone! Let's take a look on what happened yesterday on the US financial market and understand the impact of CPI and inflation rate. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation news from the United States can have a significant impact on financial markets and the value of the U.S. dollar. The CPI measures the change in the price of a basket of goods and services consumed by households, and inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising. When the CPI and inflation numbers are higher than expected , it can indicate that the economy is growing, which can boost stock prices, lead to higher interest rates, and appreciate the dollar. This is because as the economy grows, companies will see increased demand for their products and services, which can lead to higher profits and stock prices. Higher interest rates can also attract more investors to bonds, which can lead to higher bond prices. Additionally, a strong economy can lead to increased demand for U.S. goods and services, and increased foreign investment in the U.S. economy. As a result, the demand for dollars increases, which can lead to an increase in the value of the dollar. On the other hand, if the CPI and inflation numbers are lower than expected , it can indicate that the economy is slowing down , which can lead to lower stock prices, lower interest rates and depreciation of the dollar. This is because as the economy slows down, companies will see decreased demand for their products and services, which can lead to lower profits and stock prices. Lower interest rates can also lead to less investors in bonds, which can lead to lower bond prices. Additionally, a weak economy can lead to decreased demand for U.S. goods and services, and decreased foreign investment in the U.S. economy. As a result, the demand for dollars decreases, which can lead to a decrease in the value of the dollar. It's important to note that the Federal Reserve uses inflation as an indicator to change the monetary policy, as they use interest rates as a tool to control inflation. Typically if inflation is too high, the Fed will increase interest rates to slow down the economy and curb inflation, and if inflation is too low, the Fed will decrease interest rates to stimulate the economy. These monetary policy decisions can also have an impact on the value of the dollar, as when the Fed raises interest rates, it can make the U.S. a more attractive place to invest, which can lead to an appreciation of the dollar. Conversely, when the Fed lowers interest rates, it can make the U.S. a less attractive place to invest, which can lead to a depreciation of the dollar.
ECONOMICS:USCPIEducation
by m_maia14