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FINALLY Bitcoin 36K test soon??June of last year I published a post about bitcoin and the possibility of a coming bear market rally to 36k once the 18k support level finally broke down (approximate). Well the first week of November this occurred and although we did not get the deep capitulation we would have liked to see, we find ourselves in an interesting situation with the new data we have now to go off of. The primary piece of information being that of getting back above 18k after a failed attempt a week or so before Christmas. I did not post anything at the time of that occurring because I was not sold on the idea that it was legitimate. But fast forward to the middle of January and on the weekly chart of Bitcoin we now have not only the break back above 18k, but also classic bullish divergence showing on the weekly RSI indicator. And if we look at the weekly RSI we can also see that there is A LOT of room to run to the upside after consolidating for SEVEN MONTHS after first going oversold in June. And we are now getting confirmation of this bullish divergence that we were patiently waiting on by taking out the 18k resistance level and now attempting to close back above it. Keep an eye on the Sunday close of this weekly candle on Bitcoin. As well as the coming US CPI data that is going to be released tomorrow. If BTC can hold above this 18k level, there could be a major move to the upside that could take us well past the main target of $36000 on Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the short term first target for this asset (if 18k holds) would be $21500.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradeVibez
1
using CPI & CLAIMS data as TRADE CONFLUENCE!Really tricky market to make sense of right now because of how last weeks data (stronger job market - confirmed by NFP) was disregarded. This could mean: 1. Either they were beginning to lay a trap (current moves will reverse) 2. The market genuinely doesn't care because it expects claims to eventually pick up with a vengeance Here's what I think: CPI has been cooling due to lower Oil price and higher interest rates (housing is a big component of CPI). Lower CPI shouldn't be a shock to anyone and is likely already priced in. For this reason, I think what matters most right now is what the Fed is focused on: SERVICES (wage) inflation and this is why I believe the main focus tomorrow is likely to be the services component of CPI and the CLAIMS data. I think tomorrow's news is already priced in and we're likely to see a reversal in XAU.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by XAUSpeculator
2
GBPAUD point of interest HEY TRADERS GBPAUD in this analysis i'm bullish on this pair we see price has been respecting the previous low which formed a better double bottom TRADE CRITERIA: WHAT ARE WE EXPECTING: currently price is at the double bottom and now what we need to see is a reversal pattern to reverse the price up HOW DO WE ENTER: wait for the first shape impulse up followed by a continuation correction get in on the correction OUR STOP LOSS LEVEL: below shape impulse correction POSSIBLE TARGET: top zone TRADE INVALIDATION: when price impulse bearish down and form a bearish continuation pattern i.e setup invalid THANKS FOR READING AS ALWAYS STAY SAFE AND TRADE SAFE!!!!! CPI TOMORROW
Long
by REAL_CRYPTO_VIC
1
BITCOIN- Ahead of Inflation Data (CPI Tomorrow)Hi everyone, watch the video and let me know your thoughts. I cover the main Technical levels you should know as well as the key fundamental factors and scenarios. Some good news arising today as FTX seems to have recovered 5 Billion dollars . The announcement substantially raises the total FTX has recovered since filing for bankruptcy last year but it's still short of what customers are owed in total. Still, good news. Not so great news from IMF : The International Monetary Fund says that 'The new year is going to be "tougher than the year we leave behind'... scary indeed as some say 2/3rds of the countries will enter into recession this year. More bad news here and there, from Europe, Canada, Australia. Just a little example from Canada: 'The CEOs at Canada's largest banks say tens of thousands of Canadians could default on mortgages due to rising rates. This comes as the vacancy rate at Canadian office buildings are at a record high ' Lastly, we have the FED's cornered between raising or not, for how long and how much? Employment was good last week and inflation report tomorrow will play a huge role. In general: good inflation tomorrow (lower inflation, eased) will probably be better news for markets and BTC/Alts as well. If inflation is high then we run for the hills as the Feds will need to consider new big rate hikes..most likely i think we will avoid this. KEY LEVELS: 18K : A third test is expected as the last 2 times we had rejections. This time we can go higher. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR PS. Remember the cycles: The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place at block 840,000 which is predicted to be on Mar 13, 2024 08:47:30 PM UTC.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by FX_Professor
7
GOLD SHORT TERM INTRADAY IDEAIntraday Analysis (11 Jan 2023) Will be adapting to bullish sentiment as of now until we see a shift of structure or a shift in fundamentals. CPI data will be released tmrw which will definitely shift the direction for gold. As of today , price is in a choppy zone as expected as we are at a weekly timeframe. If CPI prints above previous it shows that inflation is still high and there will be more rate hikes to come. That will be detrimental to gold and the dollar will gain strength. Vice versa.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by CJ_GOLDPIPS
Inflation Report: 11 Jan 2023Finally there is a sense of relief. The US inflation is just on a some-what downward spiral. It's almost as if we peaked at a whopping 9.1% and now dropping to around 6%. And let's not forget all our friends abroad, like Germany where it's dropped from 10. 4 in October down to 8.6%, UK dropping from 11.1% slightly down to 10.7%, Canada's 8.1 dropped to 6.8%, France's steady 6.2%, and China's decent1.6%. And let's not forget our lekker country, South Africa where inflation has also dropped from 7.8% down to 7.4%. It's just too bad all these numbers are due to supply chain issues, war, and food shortages. But it looks like we have potentially seen the end of The Great Inflation - and now things should start to settle. Your thoughts? Trade well, live free Timon (Trader since 2003)
ECONOMICS:USCCPIEducation
by Timonrosso
$128.50 Temp Bottom on AAPL going into CPI?Once AAPL broke $128.65 last Friday, I've been patiently waiting on a retest. Today at 10:45 we retested, dipped below level and reclaimed it and then retest it again at 12 and has a strong upside move. With this context, the rejection wicks on the 1h candles and the fact that we've broken out of this channel that apple has had for a few weeks, I am anticipating $128.50 to be an excellent long level to lead us to 134+ later this week. Stay tuned and please follow to show support! Thank you.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by Macks_MoneyTree
AUD/USD edges lower, CPI nextThe Australian dollar is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6898, down 0.21%. This follows a two-day rally in AUD/USD climbed over 2%. It could be a busy week for the Australian dollar, with Australia releasing CPI on Wednesday, followed by the US on Thursday. Australian headline inflation dropped to 6.9% in October, down from 7.3% a month earlier. The markets are bracing for inflation to rise again, with a forecast of 7.3% for December. As well, the trimmed mean rate (core CPI) is also expected to rise to 5.5%, up from 5.3%. The RBA is widely expected to continue its tightening at the February 7th meeting. The markets are currently pricing in a 25-basis point hike at 60%, and this will likely rise if inflation reverses directions and climbs higher on Wednesday, as expected. The RBA is well aware of the pain that high rates are causing to consumers and businesses and remains flexible with its rate policy. The minutes of the December meeting indicated that the RBA considered three options at that meeting - a 25 bp hike, a 50-bp hike and a pause. In the end, RBA members opted for the 25-bp increase. The Fed hasn't had much success in convincing the markets to adopt its outlook on interest rates. The markets have stubbornly clung to a dovish approach, pricing in a terminal rate of 4.93%. In contrast, the Fed dot plot indicates a terminal rate of 5-5.25%. But you can't fault the Fed for not trying. On Monday, two non-voting FOMC members reiterated the Fed's hawkish stance, saying that rates would likely rise above 5%. Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic said he expected rates to remain above the 5% level for "a long time" and that he would put rates on hold throughout 2024. Bostic added that if Thursday's inflation data showed inflation easing, it would strengthen the case for reducing the rate hike at the February meeting to 25 basis points. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed this stance, saying that holding rates at its peak for 11 months was a "reasonable starting point." If inflation is stronger than expected, the markets may listen a bit more closely. Conversely, a soft inflation release will make it harder for the Fed to convince the markets that it is not planning to wind up the current tightening cycle with a "one and done" hike in February. AUD/USD has support at 0.6703 and 0.6620 There is resistance at 0.6841 and 0.6969
by OANDA
Is it the bottom?The graph shows the fall in wage income relative to the rise in prices. We see a rapid decline in the income of citizens. Perhaps this is the effect of the January holidays, because. salaries haven’t yet arrived at the bank and therefore the 3rd week of January is the most depressing. This trend was observed in the period 1979-1981, and it was the bottom of social sentiment. There is one difference - in the past it coincided with the bottom in the stock markets, now, in our opinion, we haven’t reached it. What conclusion can be drawn from these statistics?
FRED:LES1252881600Q
by Financial_Wave
Interest rate up to at least 6.5% in 2023, why?The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22. At what level will he consider an interest rate cut? He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut. Market consensus for CPI to range between 5% to 8..9% for this year. If this is true, the Fed is likely to continue to hike the rate moderately at 0.25% in each meeting just to bring inflation down. I am seeing this as the best case scenario. Today’s content: Strategy in an inflationary environment: i. Commodity – Buy them ii. Stock market – Trade them Can inflation be hedged and can we trade into the interest rate uptrend? CME Micro 30 Year Yield Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.001 point = $1 0.01 point = $10 0.1 point = $100 1 point = $1,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
TVC:US30YLong
by konhow
14
Interest rate up to at least 6.5% in 2023, why?The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22. At what level will he consider an interest rate cut? He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut. Market consensus for CPI to range between 5% to 8% for this year. If this is the case in 2023, the Fed is likely to continue to hike the rate moderately at 0.25% in each meeting just to bring inflation down. I am seeing this as the best case scenario. We can participate in hedging the market and trading the interest rate in this example. CME Micro 30 Year Yield Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.001 point = $1 0.01 point = $10 0.1 point = $100 1 point = $1,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com I hope this tutorial will be helpful, in enabling you to read into the market with greater clarity. Stay-tune for the video version shortly, we will do more in-depth study.
TVC:US30YLong
by konhow
1
EUR/USD dips lower, German PMI improvesWelcome to the first trading day of the New Year. Trading remains thin, as most markets are closed.  In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0679, down 0.23%. I expect a quiet day for the euro. There are no US events on the schedule. German Manufacturing PMI improved to 47.1 in December, up from 46.2 in November and shy of the consensus of 47.4 points. Manufacturing remains below the 50.0 level that separates contraction from expansion, and expectations remain pessimistic. The silver lining to a gloomy situation is that the outlook has improved slightly, as the December release was the strongest in three months. It was a similar pattern in the eurozone, as the Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.8, up from 47.1 in November, also a three-month high. Manufacturing in Germany and the eurozone has suffered a tough year, and demand remains weak. The global outlook remains uncertain and with the ECB promising further rate hikes, the risk-to-demand outlook is tilted to the downside. Still, December showed an improvement, as concerns over an energy crisis have lessened and inflation has eased. We'll get a look at key inflation releases this week. German publishes December CPI on Tuesday, followed by eurozone CPI on Friday. Both indicators are pointing to inflation heading lower, which could have an impact on ECB rate policy. The ECB raised rates by 50-bp in December and meets next on February 2nd. If anyone needed a sober forecast for 2023, there was one today from the International Monetary Fund. The head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, warned that 2023 would be tougher than last year, as the US, EU and China would see growth slow. Georgieva said that she expected one-third of the global economy to be in recession. In October, the IMF cut its growth outlook from 2.9% to 2.7%, due to the war in Ukraine as well as central banks around the world raising interest rates. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0674. Below, there is support at 1.0566 There is resistance at 1.0782 and 1.0852
by OANDA
Euro shrugs as Spain's inflation dropsIt's the last trading day of 2022, and EUR/USD is almost unchanged in what should be a quiet day in the currency markets. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0674, up 0.13%. The week between Christmas and New Year's is usually very light on data, and there were no tier-1 events in Germany or the eurozone this week. Earlier today, Spain released the initial CPI estimate for December, which showed that inflation continues to weaken. CPI dropped to 5.8%, down from 6.8% and below the estimate of 6.0%. Inflation in Spain slowed for a fifth successive month, as energy costs keep coming down. Headline CPI is down sharply from a peak of 10.8% in July, but the news was not all positive, as core inflation rose to 6.9%, up from 6.3%. The Spanish inflation report kicks off a host of eurozone inflation releases next week. Investors will be hoping that the German and eurozone CPI data will mimic the Spanish release and point to inflation heading lower. The ECB will be keeping a close eye on these inflation reports, and the data will be an important factor in the ECB's decision as to the pace of future rate increases. The ECB delivered a 50-bp hike earlier this month, down from the 75-bp increase in October. ECB President Lagarde warned the markets not to view the move as a dovish pivot and said that more rate hikes were on the way. ECB Vice Vice-President Luis de Guindos reiterated Lagarde's hawkishness last week, saying that 50-bp rate hikes "may become the norm in the near future." 1.0660 is a weak support line. Below, there is support at 1.0616 There is resistance at 1.0702 and 1.0778
by OANDA
1
Euro higher as US jobless claims riseWe're seeing limited movement in the currency markets this week, which is not uncommon during the week between Christmas and New Year's. Trading volume remains thin and the data calendar is very light. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0649, up 0.35%. The US released unemployment claims today, one of the highlights in a quiet week. Initial jobless claims climbed as expected to 225,000, up from 216,000. A rise in week-to-week claims should not alarm investors, as there is bound to be some fluctuation in the releases. The 4-week moving average, which smooths out these fluctuations, remained virtually unchanged at 221,000. There are no tier-1 releases out of Germany or the eurozone this week. On Friday, Spain releases CPI for December, and inflation in the eurozone's fourth-largest economy could signal what to expect from next week's German and eurozone inflation releases. Inflation in Spain has been steadily dropping, from a peak of 10.8% in July to 6.8% in November. The downtrend is expected to continue in December, with a consensus of 6.1%. The ECB has sent out hawkish messages lately, with Vice-President Luis de Guindos saying last week that "Increases of 50 basis points may become the new norm in the near term." De Guindos added that the ECB was concerned that the markets might underestimate the persistence of inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell would wholeheartedly agree, as the Fed has found it tough going to convince the markets that it remains hawkish and plans to continue raising rates into 2023. The markets jumped on a couple of soft US inflation reports as an indication that the Fed would pivot and become dovish, sending the US dollar sharply lower. It was only after a hawkish Fed meeting earlier this month that the markets seemed to get Powell's message. Still, the Fed remains concerned that such speculation could loosen market conditions and complicate the Fed's painstaking battle to curb inflation. EUR is testing resistance at 1.0660. Above, there is resistance at 1.0746 1.0574 and 1.0488 are providing support
by OANDA