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AUS200 forecast December/JanuaryWith holiday comes low volatility. I expect market to stay within 7080-7158. Very likely till first week of January. This might play out two ways: 1. Bullish scenario: - we break above 7158, and hit 7250. (Max 7400 to form double top on daily chart and then drop to 6500 or even new lows) - looking into Elliott Waves strategy - we could face one more wave to the upside 2. Bearish scenario: - not much movement until Jan, staying around 7080-7195. - drop to 6500. Long story short I expect going back towards 2022 lows in the next three months. It’s hard to say when exactly it’ll happen. Big move can be triggered by pretty much anything at this point (worse CPIs, new Russian sanctions, restrictions in China, new wave of Covid….). This is a risky enviroment so trade carefully and always do your own analysis before opening the trade.
FX:AUS200
by Trinnisia_Trades
1
Using FOMC as trade confluence!TECHNICAL REASON: Price was within the zone of interest and the 4H candle has no lower wick which means everyone is priced one way; could see some profit taking ahead of FOMC FUNDAMENTAL REASON: It is worth noting that to the Fed, to gage inflation and how sticky it is or isn't, they are looking at jobs (more than CPI, PPI etc). Since the job market isn't cracking, it's a little premature to think that tomorrow they're going to come in as dovish as the market is expecting. Powell doesn't even have to necessarily come in Hawkish tomorrow for these moves to reverse. As long as he is less dovish than the average joe on Wall Street is expecting, USD is likely to have a strong reversal upward. Short idea proved to be valid on the back of inflation print, which I believe is not that relevant. The Fed is focused on Jobs more than CPI, PPI etc. If price stabilizes today (likely will), expecting the market to offer 1825 again as a wick hunt and then for XAU to roll over. HOW TO TRADE FOMC I've taken partial profits in anticipation of getting "wicked out" and if this occurs, I will re-enter short around 1825 CROSS ASSET: Everyone seems to be booking profits right now (see chart). The question is whether they will add once they're doing taking profits, open shorts or wait for tomorrow to make up their mind. The next 2.5 hrs are very important. 1. USD is stabilizing within lower boundary of wedge pattern 2. Bond yields haven't broken the low and are holding 3. NASDAQ (most forward looking index) is pulling back from the highs
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by XAUSpeculator
6
SPX - Will we close above or below this trendline today?SPX - Will we close above or below this trendline today? Lets go through yesterday CPI came out lower so US equities headed higher, DXY headed lower but now look where we are. Today we have FOMC - In my opinion we can't even close above it do we today we took back all move of CPI if we close below it I think we back within these ranges and perhaps bears gain further control. Will Powell be dovish or Hawkish - The way I see it we get coin flip - Santa or the grinch. Trade Journal
SP:SPX
by Trade_Journal
1
Takeaways from the Fed Chair SpeechCBOT: Micro E-Mini Dow Futures ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ) The Fed’s 2022 Rate Decisions While we reflect on 2022, an eventful year full of “the unexpected”, rate hikes have undoubtedly dominated the headlines. In eight rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, the US central bank hiked the Fed Funds rate seven times, taking it up from 0.25% to 4.50%. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 7.0% in December 2021. After a quick runup to 9.1% in the first half of the year, it came back down to 7.1% in November 2022. If the trend continues, we may end the year with an inflation below our starting point. However, current level is well above the 2% policy target. While the Fed emphasizes the need for on-going tightening, it expects inflation to be above 3% at year-end 2023. The Fed is on the right track, but there might be more to do. How did the Dow Jones Industrial Index React to Fed rate hikes? The Dow (DJIA) reached all-time high of 36,952.65 on January 5th. It pulled back 22% to 28,852 by September 30th on the back of three consecutive 75-bp rate hikes. DJIA closed at 32,920.46 on December 16th, down 10.9% year-to-date (YTD). The Dow’s Price/Earnings (P/E) was 20.49 on last Friday, down 6.9% from 22.01 year-over-year (YOY), according to Birinyi Associates/Dow Jones Market Data. For a comparison, S&P 500 hit 4,766 at year-end 2021 and closed at 3,852 last Friday, down 19.2% YTD. The P/E ratio for S&P was 18.91 now, down 35.1% YOY (28.69). Nasdaq 100 closed at 15,645 at year-end 2021 and settled at 11,244 last Friday, down 28.1% YTD. The P/E ratio for Nasdaq was 23.52 now, down 32.2% YOY (34.71). What do the datasets tell us? The Dow experienced a smaller correction (-10.9%) this year, compared to the S&P (-19.2%) and the Nasdaq (-28.1%). Its valuation, as measured by P/E ratio, is in line with the S&P and Nasdaq, all in the range of 19-24. However, the Dow’s P/E declined less than 7% from its top, vs. over -30% drop for both the S&P and the Nasdaq. Any trading opportunities? On December 14th, DJIA opened flat at 9:30AM. It began to fall after the Fed released its rate decision at 2:00PM. The index nosedived when Fed Chair Powell delivered his speech at 2:30PM Eastern Time. By the end of the following trade day, as investors fully digested the Fed’s policy, DJIA lost 884 points, or -2.6%. I put together a cheat-sheet to decode how DJIA anticipated and reacted to Fed Chair speeches throughout 2022. I denote T as FOMC date and T+1 the next trade date; Market Open at 9:30am, Market Close at 4:00pm; Rate decision release at 2:00pm, and Fed Chair Speech starts at 2:30pm; all the above in eastern time zone. Market reactions are represented by Up and Down. From Market Open (T) to Market Close (T+1), the changes in DJIA value were January -342, March +829, May -174, June -643, July +665, September -743, November -575, and December -884. All market data on DJIA is from Yahoo! Finance. Market anticipation and reaction were mixed in the early stage of this rate hike cycle. However, more recently, investors tended to have a rosy picture going into the FOMC, trading on the assumption of Fed Pivot. Each time, the Fed Chair speech brought them back to the reality of continued monetary tightening. DJIA declined six out of eight times. Average two-day change for DJIA during the last three FOMC meetings is -734 points. If we were to place a Short Futures order for Micro Dow Futures (MYM) for two days, we would have made a very nice Christmas bonus. MYM contract notional value is $0.50 per index point. Initial margin is $750 per contract. Hypothetically, if we captured 400 points, our 2-day payoff would be $200, or +27%. What’s the takeaway? Trading opportunities exist because the market is not aligned with the Fed. While Chair Powell made the point of fighting inflation forcefully over and over, investors did not take him seriously and kept dreaming of reasons for the Fed to end monetary tightening. While the Fed moderates rate hike to 50 bp, Chair Powell states that 4.25-4.50% Fed Funds is not restrictive enough. He emphasizes the “on-going” need for tightening. Policy target for inflation is 2% and there was never a discussion to raise it. It’s very clear that the Fed’s overarching goal is to bring inflation down to 2%. Pausing is premature. Next Fed meeting is on Jan. 31st - Feb. 1st. If DJIA repeats itself and moves up ahead of the rate decision, we may explore day-trading opportunities. In addition to the DJIA futures, similar strategies can be applied to Micro S&P 500 Futures (MES). MYM traded 285,803 lots with an open interest of 48,564 last Friday. Micro S&P is even more liquid, with daily trade volume exceeding 2 million lots. An alternative to the futures strategy is Options on futures. Put options on the March MES contract is currently quoted at $24.00. Options have bigger upside potentials if your market forecast is correct. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
10
Hard to be bullish... SP500 🥶📉Taking a look at the Daily chart for the SP500. We can see a near perfect downward channel filled with dumps and scam pumps. Last week we saw a big rejection off of the 4100 resistance that we pumped up to back in September (yellow line). Then the subsequent FOMC rate hikes and CPI numbers pushed us lower. We'd expect to see a bit of a relief rally back up to the top of the channel, but at this point the move down looks basically locked in. A bottom of around 3200 would put us right in line with the 2020 crash levels. This remains our "bottom", at least in for now barring any crazy black swan event. Which is quite likely with the current geopolitical climate. We'll see how the rest of 2022 plays out. Eyes peeled. -TucciNomics Chief Overlord, AlgoBuddy
SP:SPX
by QuantVue
All eyes on Fed's Interest Rate~~**Repost from Dec 14th 2022 since the original post disappeared** Though the CPI figures released last night were lower than expected, if you look one by one, you will notice that the price of services (Core Services) has not yet decreased, but food and oil prices have. TVC:GOLD As a result, let's keep our eyes on the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement in upcoming hours, which many agencies, including Oxford Economics, Bloomberg, Forex Factory, and Trading Economics, expect to be 0.5%. If the Fed remains concerned and interest rates rise more than expected (0.5%), gold will take another ride up the hill tonight. If not, we should brace ourselves for a trip to Death Valley. Let's prepare for a ride~~
TVC:GOLD
by ChartTrail
XAUUSD Plan for CPI and Interest Rate Decision Week**Repost from Dec 11th 2022 since the original post disappeared** Regardless of the results from announcement of economic numbers, it would not be surprising to see gold price drop since the current price is standing near significant resistance area around 1810 USD. However, it would not be wise to open a short position until the break of uptrend structure is broken either from smaller time frame such as 15 min is making lower lows or the price closes below the uptrend regression channel in 1H time frame. There are two support levels to stop the bearish momentum at 1781 USD and 1765 USD. If the price does not break below 1781 USD, it has a chance of testing at 1823
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ChartTrail
XAUUSD Potential for Bullish Continuation | 15th December 2022Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for XAUUSD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Price has tapped into my pullback buy limit entry at 1794.885, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 1777.685, where the recent swing low is. Take profit will be at 1824.515, where the recent swing high is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Rockqet
BITCOIN price, CPI, FOMC-Fed Funds Rate Next week will be hot🔥Today, we will share with you our estimates on the possible movement of the BTCUSDT price over the next week. Let's start with the fact that last week's trade was justified, and it is still relevant. Buyers managed to keep the price above the liquidity zone of $16400-16600. Over the next few days, we expect that buyers will find the strength for another upward impulse. The main task of the upward momentum is to break the next portion of the shorts' stops, which are hiding above $18000. And then, ideally, the final retest of the strength of the liquidity zone $16800 - 17100 . If buyers do not allow the BTC price to consolidate below this zone, then it will be possible to speak with greater confidence at least about a local change in the trend. At the beginning of next week, increased volatility in the market is guaranteed. After all, on 13.12 the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be updated, and on 14.12 the Federal Reserve will announce a new US Fed funds rate (forecast +0.5%) So subscribe to us, put a like under the idea and write a comment. And we, in turn, will update this idea on Tuesday/Wednesday and comment on the market situation at the moment. _____________________ Did you like our analysis? Leave a comment, like, and follow to get more
Long
by P_S_trade
85
NZD/USD awaits Fed, GDPAll eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which winds up its policy meeting later today. Policy makers are expected to raise rates by 50 basis points at this final meeting of 2022, with an outside chance of a more aggressive 75 basis point hike. This year has set a record for tightening, but despite that, the Fed stills finds itself in an uphill battle to convince the markets that it remains in a hawkish mode. The dramatic inflation report on Tuesday was softer than expected at 7.1%, once again raising risk appetite and sending the US dollar sharply lower. Any drop in inflation is welcome news for the Fed, but let's not forget that inflation is still more than three times the Fed target of 2%. The Fed has reiterated that it is committed to curbing inflation and has not given any indications of winding up the current tightening cycle, stating that it expects the terminal rate to be "somewhat higher" than anticipated in September. Despite this, speculation is growing that the Fed might deliver one more rate hike in February, perhaps by 25 bp, and then call it quits. New Zealand releases fourth-quarter GDP later today, and the markets are bracing for a weak gain of 0.8% q/q. This follows the 1.2% gain in Q3, as the economy was boosted by the booming tourist trade as the border reopened. The New Zealand dollar has recovered nicely, gaining about 400 points against the US dollar since October 1st. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be on a long break, as the next policy meeting is not until February 22nd. We could see some volatility from NZD/USD in today's North American session, with the Fed rate announcement and the New  Zealand GDP release. 0.6472 is a weak resistance line. Above, there is resistance at 0.6591 There is support at 0.6388 and 0.6311
by OANDA
Pre-FOMC XAUUSD Forecast | Wednesday 14th December 2022Hi everyone, today I will be talking about a possible XAUUSD long trade using fundamental analysis. Context 1. CPI print yesterday came out better than expected 2. CPI m/m at 0.1% vs forecast of 0.3% 3. Core CPI m/m at 0.2% vs forecast of 0.3% Given the evidence of a cool down in inflation, the Fed's previous aggressive rate hikes has been coming to effect. This could potentially solidify the stance of a slow down in rate hikes and the Fed could adopt a more dovish stance in the market. This will result in XAUUSD ticking high, and all eyes would be on FOMC tonight. Personally, I believe that the Fed would be hiking by 50bps and hint at a lower terminal rate, this will result in validation of our potential long trade in GOLD.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jon_Jones_Junior
1
DXY AFTER CPI OUTLOOK PREPPING FOR FOMCDOLLAR INDEX - continuation of bearish momentum - CPI prints lower than forecasted indicating previous months of rate hike has been working out as increasing of interest rates cause dollar to strengthen and a drop in equities and commodities which is why we have been playing the bearish bias on crypto - Now that CPI prints has showed a decrease, i am quite optimistic that the FOMC meeting will show a 50-bps rate hike as expected and sort of priced in already. We have been seeing hints of a slowdown in rate hikes which caused the equities market / crypto market and gold to rally. I need to see the FED confirms a FED PIVOT - However, if the feds decide to raise rate hike by 75bps or 100bps which is out of the ordinary, do expect a dump in all markets. Either way i am quite bullish in the markets hence my spot buys has been well positioned last month and is currently up a good amount. Leverage buys / sells will only be given probably after FOMC or next week when the dust settles. My bias in the markets as of now is bullish and not bearish. As all fundamentals have been in check for a minor relief rally across the markets or you can say it's a mini bull market. Fed pivot = dollar weakness = crypto moon / stocks moon = adapting to short term bullish bias
TVC:DXY
by CJ_GOLDPIPS
AUDUSD Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for AUDUSD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a possible pullback buy limit entry at 0.67678, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 0.66688, where the previous swing low and 50% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 0.69161, where the previous swing high is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Nifty reversal??All time high K baad ek healthily correction Hua ...4hr TF pe pole and flag ka Breakout Hua .... US CPI Inflation data came lower than expected previously 7.3% And November 7.1% after a heavy gapup profit booking took place 14th Dec next day is FOMC meeting about the rate hike....Mr Powell already made hopes about lowering the rate hike (expecting 0.50 bps) and now even the inflammation data came a good so now they don't have any excuse to unnecessarily increase the rate hikes .... Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos warned about serious recession if the aggrive rate hike continued If Mr Powell lowers the rate hike and gives a good commentary market would definitely welcome it If market gap ups tomorrow we can see Wellington pressure Nifty next reistance 18700-750 as per option chain ..(Morning star on daily Time frame ) if Dow Jones and European Markets continued to be in green we would soon see new all time highs
NSE:NIFTY
by Yash_Junavane
1
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT UPDATE:End of day update from us here at KOG: We wanted this to go a little lower before the bounce to the upside, however as you can see price reacted aggressively to the news and we went straight up into the KOG Report level we were expecting this week to be completed. It's a difficult market to trade and to be honest we're maintaining the defensive in Camelot so its reduced lots and observation. Now we would like to see this settle pre-event so expect a range above 1803 and be prepared for FOMC tomorrow. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
8