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CPI

🟨 FED Day & CPI Day - StatisticsFED DAYS As you can see, Fed days has been over 60% more volatile than non-Fed Day since hikes began. Still they have not been as volatile as CPI days and that comes on Tuesday (today). The bottom table shows the action on the last 7 CPI release dates. CPI DAYS The average true range on CPI days has been 89% larger than the average true range on all other days since 05-Nov-22. July was the only one with faily docile numbers. So we can very well see a sharp market move on Tuesday and again on Wednesday. CONCLUSION The market has been highly reactive to inflation and interest rate news the last several months and today and tomorrow we have the two biggest news events back-to-back.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TintinTrading
2
#GBPJPY near 4h timeframe resistive area one againlook where price is one more time at an area where rejected clearly twice before plus it's a structural point too ( it use to be support but changed to resistance ) if you look at the left side of the chart. this cluster of resistance add to the importance of the area. But the thing is matter most is not to rush into a trade as we have CPI news today and depends on what the numbers going to be it can cause price to break the resistance to the upside or to reject from. If you want to have more comprehensive idea about what to expect of news are going to be released today and tomorrow I would recommend you to read the idea linked to this article. But in summery, if CPI comes out equal or lower the prediction it would be good JPY and we can expect the downside move from GBPJPY .
Short
by mohemati
impact of two important following news on DXYTwo important factors that been driving Dollar prices in last several month as we all know is Federal Funds Rate and Inflation data like CPI. In this week we have both of them coming out on Tuesday and Wednesday, now we want to see how it can affect the market. Price usually tend to be at important resistive or supportive areas at the time of important news hit the market and as we can see now price is at supporting area and at the Daily low which probably will remain here until the news hit the market so we can expect of low volatility movement on USD and other major crosses, But what will happen when the news releases? As we know CPI balance is curving to downside and shows that inflation is cooling down and as we see the prediction of tomorrow CPI news we can see that the market expect this trend to continue. Now here is the tricky part, if CPI data put out like prediction or lower than the prediction this means that fed has the inflation under control which makes trader to believe that federal reserve would not need to raise prices very aggressively like before and as a result we may see a risk on environment in the market which can lead Dollar prices to come lower, but on the other hand SPX, TLT, EUR,JPY and also commodity currencies like AUD,NZD to take benefit from the situation. But if CPI data comes out higher than expectation then we can argue that federal reserve do not have inflation under control so it needs to continue hiking prices like before and this situation may lead to higher prices for Dollar and lower prices for all the other assets that we covered above. Also if the second scenario take place tomorrow we can expect USYIELD to continue going higher which have negative effect on US treasury bond and very bad effect on SPX index. Put CPI analysis apart the other important news that can shake prices real hard is federal reserve which going to hit the market on Wednesday. On that time we can see that what exactly is in the mind of federal reserve and how they are going to impact the economy. In overall, if they raise rate same or below the expectation its going to be very good for risky assets since it shows that we are getting close to end of rate hiking cycle but if federal reserve going for raising rate higher than expectation then it will have a very good impact on Dollar but bad impact on risky assets.
TVC:DXYEducation
by mohemati
Inflation Inflection PointBig week kicked off with a positive gamma exposure across the S&P 500 on Monday. Check out my post on DDOI Gamma Exposure if you want to understand why I think we're going to break the 200D moving average. I think this pattern changes the next 3 months and we begin to digest 2022 and begin 2023 forcasts. I was surprised by TSLA selling off yesterday as the S&P 500 increased incrementally throughout the day. Inverse Head & Shoulder is still valid, but barely. A Double bottom looks more likely now. Some special charts tomorrow for Jerome Powell FOMC. Like and Follow. The more I Learn. The more I Earn.
AMEX:SPYLong
by SPYvsGME
6
Are you ready for the CPI?Are you ready for the CPI? Forecast 7.3% - If it comes lower, it's good result you may get SPX climb higher. However think about how low it comes in or does it come in line or do we get opposite and comes out higher or in-line. Don't forget we have CPI today but we have FOMC tomorrow. I am going to be trading the two events separate taking my CPI trades off with a clean look for FOMC tomorrow as Powell could be Hawkish or Dovish - who knows? Don't forget to trade your own plan to become a consistent trader. Enjoy, Trade Journal
SP:SPX
by Trade_Journal
2
EURUSD potential Forecast CPI news | Tuesday 13th December 2022Hi there guys, I mainly use ICT Concepts for my trading. Here's a trade idea for Tuesday, 13th December 2022 for the US CPI news release . Idea Those are possible trade ideas with buy stop and sell stop on the chart. Abbreviations BSLQ : Buyside Liquidity SSLQ : Sellside Liquidity FVG : Fair Value Gap MSS: Market Structure Shift For entries, always use confirmations on the smaller timeframes! Stay safe trading! Feel free to follow me, comment + boost this post if you guys enjoyed this! Regards, Chen Yongjin
Long
by DogeStonks
7
S&P500 TRADING IDEAS AHEAD OF THE HOT CPI DATAIn the past 12hrs, the stock market rallied in anticipation to lower Inflation Data (CPI). The forecasts are that the the December figures may be lower than November's. Should the CPI data come out better than expected the DXY will tumble, consequently the S&P500 will surge to the 4100 mark. On the flip side, should the Inflation data come out negative (High Inflation), the DXY will rally while the S&p500 could dip to the 3920 mark. Inflation Forecast: CPI (MoM): 0.3% CPI (YoY): 7.3%
VANTAGE:SP500
by ciryjuma008
1
EURUSD - Major resistance at 1.0620US CPI NUMBER TODAY - EXPECT EXTREME VOLATILITY EURUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.0620 (stop at 1.0670) The rally was sold and the dip bought resulting in mild net gains yesterday. Buying posted in Asia. The medium term bias remains bearish. Bespoke resistance is located at 1.0620. Bespoke resistance is located at 1.0640. Trading within a Bearish Ascending Wedge. The measured move target is 0.9935. Our profit targets will be 1.0460 and 0.935 Resistance: 1.0620 / 1.0640 / 1.0751 Support: 1.0460 / 1.0210 / 0.9935 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by VantageMarkets
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/13/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2023 - PR High: 11833.25 - PR Low: 11816.00 - NZ Spread: 38.75 Evening Stats (As of 12:15 AM) - Weekend Gap: N/A - 8/19 Session Gap: -0.04% (open > 13237) - Session Open ATR: 275.97 - Volume: 15K - Open Int: 138K (rollover) - Trend Grade: Bear - From ATH: -29.6% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 12391 - Mid: 11820 - Short: 10678 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQH2023Short
by mv3trader5
ES1 - Big picture clear downtrend channel on the 3D chart. another lower high should mark end of this santa rally, but if the price doesn't break below 3950, watch out. Worse scenario for both bulls and bears is slow grind for next few months until macro situation becomes clearer in Q1. Price action in mega cap ahead of Q1 earnings would be first sign of things to come. I don't think this rally will fade as quickly as last two. But again 3950 and 3800 are key levels to watch....any consolidation above those levels will be sign of strength. Below 3800, we go lower to 3200 and then 2800 perhaps (black swan event?) It's important to keep things in perspective. If you have missed out on this phase of rally, risk to go long here is substantially higher. Better approach would be to let price spice to 4150 and wait for consolidation. Go long on any pullbacks selectively.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CheelooTrader
Inflation Slowing, but Still a Concern for the Federal ReserveInflation in the United States, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), is expected to have slowed again in November. This is due in part to a weaker economy, which has reduced inflation pressures. However, the expected 0.3% increase in the CPI is not enough to ease concerns at the Federal Reserve or prevent the central bank from raising interest rates even higher to slow the economy. Gas prices have fallen since the summer, reversing the spike in spring that sent inflation to a 40-year high. As a result, the cost of living has risen more slowly in the past four months. If the forecast is accurate, the annual rate of inflation would taper off to 7.3% from 7.7% in October and a peak of 9.1% in June. The core rate of inflation, which excludes food and gas, is also forecast to rise 0.3% in November. This is still higher than the monthly gains that were the norm before the pandemic. The yearly rate of core inflation may fall slightly to 6.1% from 6.3% in the previous month. The rate peaked at 6.6% in November. The increase in the cost of goods, excluding energy, has relaxed to 5% in October from 12.4% in February. However, the increase in the price of services continues to accelerate. The cost of services, excluding energy, has risen 6.8% in the past year. This is due in part to the increasing cost of labor, which is the biggest expense for most service-oriented businesses. Rents have jumped 7.5% in the past year, marking the biggest surge since 1982. Rents are starting to decrease as the economy slows, but the Fed and Wall Street are watching for clear evidence of a reversal. Even if rents and home prices level off, the change may not immediately show up in the CPI report.
OANDA:SPX500USDEducation
by JoelWarby
Yield curve inversion, CPI, GDP and DOWHistorically, an inverted yield curve has been viewed as an indicator of a pending economic recession; hence the inversion of the yield curve might be perceived as a leading indicator. Once the yield curve is inverted, it may be several months before we see GPD contracting; and it is not guaranteed that we will see a sharp drop in GDP. First pane: You can see the development of GDP and the associated development of the Dow Jones Index (log-scale). The area below you shows the US 10-year/2-year yield (bubbles indicate a yield curve inversion). As you can see, it might be some time before we see a GDP contraction after the yield curve inverts. The last area shows the core CPI that drove the Fed and expected higher dot plot medians in December. Nonetheless, recent data suggests that the core CPI may have peaked (to be confirmed).
TVC:US10YEducation
by Chimbarosa
Why the CPI Report Matters and Could be a Bullish Catalyst As long as inflationary expectations remained low after Jerome's last speech where he spoke about softening the increase in interest rates, which may or may not be the case, there is a good chance that inflation ticks down. This would confirm a 50bp hike for December, easing monetary policy and providing room for equities to continue their rally. While I think a lower CPI report is more likely in the near-term than a tick up in inflation, with a possible higher than 50bp increase and a decline in equites, it could go either way. Later, when the lagging effects of QT are felt, I expect a further decline in the market as discussed in my previous thesis. It is also possible that inflation stays near its current 7.7%, in which case there may not be too large of a response in equity markets tomorrow. The bigger the move in CPI, the bigger the move in equites. VIX is inching up in anticipation of this binary event. I am linking this thesis with "long" because I believe the negative CPI trend will continue and result in a near-term rally, but this is only because I feel there is a higher probability of this occurring, not that it is by any means certain. InTheMoney
AMEX:SPYLong
by InTheMoneyAdam
8