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TSLA Major Confluence Long Signal!Going to keep this simple. We have a touch on the bottom of the descending parallelly channel, a major horizontal support line, and the golden pocket. This is a very bullish setup for TSLA to bounce. Stops should be placed below golden pock with the right position size and risk management to protect your account incase the bears manage to push the price through this major support. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Safe Trading, Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by rnaofs
DXY WEEKLY OUTLOOK DXY 2 scenerios for this coming week (very heavy with CPI and FOMC this week) 1) Looking for a continuation melt on the dollar index with a small bear flag on the hourly timeframe. With a break of structure I can see further downside on the dollar which would give rise in the equities market. 2) Looking at the dollar index to form a double top at 106.5 - 107 region for better risk to reward sells which means this will give equites, crypto a short-term downside move as we are currently experiencing now which can serve as manipulation or liquidity grabs to the downside for further upside later in the week or the coming weeks. Inflations Prints (CPI TUESDAY 9.30 PM SGT) As per seen from the prints of previous month, inflation is easing. We will be looking for Tuesday's print to be lower than that of previous month of 0.4% to signify a continuation of easing prints for the months ahead. If inflation were to print higher than 0.4%, we can safely gauge that the prints of previous month was a "One Trick-Pony". We will be looking at a continuation of bearish equities market / stocks / crypt and gold and dollar dominance. Inflation prints is in direct correlation to the FOMC monetary policy. If inflation is easing due to constant aggressive rate hikes, we can be looking at the FEDs to ease rate hikes accordingly as well. The market has been pricing in a Fed pivot Phase 1 and expecting rate hikes to be eased this month printing at 50 BPS. We will be looking at dollar weakness and bullishness across all global markets when this happens.
TVC:DXYShort
by CJ_GOLDPIPS
Bitcoin 2023 |Fed Interest Rate Hikes & The Consumer Price IndexInflation is the keyword and we know how Bitcoin reacts negatively to the Fed rate hikes and inflation statistics nowadays. But... The CPI numbers will be revealed 13-December, the Feds meeting happens 13-14-December. This will affect Bitcoin and all markets negatively as it has been doing in the past but we expect a fast, strong and swift recovery right afterwards. We can expect something like this: 1) 2) 3) What's important really is what happens after mid-December. After the shakeout. We can see GREEN start to develop mid-December and give us a break for the rest of the year and a fresh start to 2023. Bitcoin, we start GREEN in 2023. Namaste.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by MasterAnanda
28
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!KOG Report: In last week’s KOG Report we said we didn’t have much confidence in the bullish move from the week before and were expecting a move to the downside. We suggested caution as there was a pattern that suggested a potential break of 1755 so we gave the resistance levels above and illustrated the 1806-10 region to look for a reaction in price and possible rejection. We wanted lower pricing and gave a reaction region of 1760-65 where we were hoping for a tap and bounce back to the upside. As you can see, it was a perfect point to point, LEVEL TO LEVEL move, resistance held, Excalibur confirmed, and we got the move into the support levels below with then another TAP AND BOUNCE back to where the price is now. A fantastic week in Camelot, not only on Gold with Excalibur hitting and completing numerous targets, but also Silver, US30, GJ and Oil to name a few. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? We’re going to start again this week with suggesting caution on the markets! There is a lot of news this week that will cause volatility and choppy price action as well as potential extreme swings. Markets have been lining up for a big move for a few weeks so expect the unexpected in the coming weeks. For this week we have extended the range we identified in early November which you can see the price has been playing well in. We’ll again prefer to see this tap that high in the early sessions before a potential reaction in price to give us the opportunity to short back down into the support levels below. So the 1806-10 price region is again the key resistance level for price to stay below and for us to see any attempt at the bearish move we’re looking for. The path shows the support level of 1770-75 as the first key level we would like to see, we will of course be using Excalibur to guide us which will give us more clearer and precise levels to target. This level of 1770-75 is important support this week, price needs to stay above this to the resume the swing to the upside and any attempt to break and hold above 1800! Now, we have also highlighted a lower level for a potential swoop of liquidity which is sitting just below the 1750 price region, due to the news events this week these extreme levels are very much possible, so please be careful with your entries and be patient. We’re expecting ranging, whipsawing, choppy price action this week so your risk model is really important as well as your lot sizes. They’re going to be grabbing liquidity so spikes up and down are very likely. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
10
GBPUSD: How to read the fundamentals?GBPUSD is ahead of an important week of CPI meeting in Tuesday and FOMC on Wednesday. if inflation remains under control we can expect fed to slow down the rate hikes more likely 50 bps the coming week and 25 bps early next year which should trigger USD bears and that's what we expect as well based on the last CPI data. Otherwise if CPI is above expectations we can expect the opposite Scenario and more of a strong Dollar and a hawkish FOMC. when Good fundamentals meet good technicals then there is a good probability for your trade to go in your direction but always keep in mind that trading is a field of probabilities and since everything could happen a proper risk management should be taken in consideration. my recommendation is to risk 1% per trade so that will allow you to stay in the market the longest possible and will help you to compound your account as well. Otherwise if you risk 20% per trade then 5 losing trades in a row will knock you out of the market. And you don't want that to happen so you should stick to proper risk management of always risking small and aiming high. if you have any question please don't hesitate to ask in the comment section. i'm happy to interact and answer to all!
Long
by JoeChampion
40
$AUDUSD - Important data this week, be prepared. $AUDUSD - Get ready... Another week, another great opportunity for us traders to take advantage of. This week is a very important week: CPI, FOMC & PMIs. It was a difficult week, choppy action but that happens when we have important data this week. It's important to reserve your capital gains when market conditions are like this kangaroo or amber mode is way I describe it. Some are stating the CPI print will be more important than FOMC - I think it will be both very important as we go towards year end we still have plenty of trading opportunities and this week is a great week. We expect CPI to soften, 7.7% previous to 7.3% - If it comes in softer the rate hikes working, we expect 50 basis point for this meeting and the next and then we expect cuts - Now the market is forward looking we've seen risk play big part DXY declining cuts coming into play, easing less pressure dollar declines: we have Aussie, Gold and crypto escalate higher. What Powell will state will be very important in my humble opinion as we get to year end and positioning for portfolio management I have no set direction on yet to decide the movement for this week, we are within mid ranges of all assets - you could trade the data or wait and trade the after reaction. Regarding past data on Friday we had PPI: It came stronger than expected however we had minor dip in EUR we still went to rising back, now within the mid ranges. The dollar bears are still out there but will they get hurt this week? Only time will tell. Technically AUDUSD: We are within ranges a break to either direction, at this current moment of time we arent closing above 200ema if we are to close above bulls could gain further control up we go towards .70 areas easily - if not this rally fails and goes back towards .64 half areas All the best for this week, Trade Journal (FOLLOW YOUR OWN TRADE PLAN - NOT A SIGNAL PROVIDER)
by Trade_Journal
2
Volatility Rally | Major Demand ZoneThe Volatility Index (VIX) has been in a historical downtrend the past weeks / 2 months! VIX has also been moving abnormal in relation to the S&P 500 Index which it tracks Volatility in. The Volatility Index has sunk to a major demand zone, and is now breaking back out of the area. After hitting Lows of around $19 the VIX is breaking out upwards. We are seeing a dump in the markets from major S&P Bear Market Trendline as well. Bears are stepping in at these levels in the markets, and the volatility index is rising, signaling further downward movement coming in the market. Simply put, the Volatility index is breaking out from its Major Demand Zone, and generally if history repeats will rally up to the supply zone up around the $30 level. This has been a typical swing move in the index since the beginning of 2022. Reasons VIX looks bullish : - TTM Squeeze (Daily & Weekly) - Reclaimed Daily EMA Cloud - Market Rejecting Major Trendline (S&P) - Cup & Handle on VIX (1hr / 1D) - Double Bottom - Market Greed - CPI & FOMC coming up How to play : $UVIX commons $VIX option calls etc. There are multiple reasons Volatility is rising currently, and Technicals back this thesis up strongly. I hope you liked the though!
TVC:VIXLong
by ZachSap
EURUSD is due for a pullback before resuming higher!FX:EURUSD has reached the end of the trading channel that it has been trending in since the end of Sept. With both a weakening momentum highlighted by the divergence in the RSI and the price action of the previous 2 peaks, coupled with the wedge forming at the end of the channel it seems it's finally time for the bears to step back. However, I don't think the bears should be celebrating yet, as so far it only seems like a healthy correction before resuming higher.
Short
by m3rr0r
We're at the 200 day. Now What?Good morning. Last week we finished the week in the green even with Powell speaking on Wednesday. And now, we are hanging out at the 200 day. So.... where do we go from here? The charts are telling me to be bullish, but we should remain cautious at this level. The overall big picture makes you sit back and think. We visited the trend line from this years high back in late March and mid August. Both times, we headed lower shortly after. Is this time different? Since October we've had bullish price action and everything is saying to be bullish. But.....the overall long term pattern should not go unrecognized. We're still in a Bear Market. I wouldn't be surprised if we grind a little bit higher this week but overall, just base here until next week. CPI is due out on the 13th and that's when we could see some action. I have my eyes set on 3600 by the end of the year. Let's see what happens. Either way, be patient, stay disciplined, control your emotions and trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPX
by MMOTA_
EUR/USD edges higher as CPI fallsIt continues to be a quiet week for the euro. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0363. The ECB's number one priority has been bringing down inflation, which has hit double-digits. ECB policy makers are no doubt pleased that November CPI fell sharply to 10.0%, down from 10.6% a month earlier. This beat the consensus of 10.4%, and the euro has responded with slight gains. The drop in eurozone inflation was the first since June 2021, and investors will be hoping that this indicates that inflation is finally peaking. On Tuesday, German CPI showed a similar trend, falling to 10.0%, down from 10.4% (10.3% est). Still, eurozone Core CPI remained unchanged at 5.0%, matching the forecast. One inflation report is not sufficient to indicate a trend, and with inflation still in double digits, nobody is declaring victory in the battle against inflation. Still, the drop in German and eurozone inflation increases the likelihood of a 50 basis-point increase at the December 12th meeting, following two straight hikes of 75 basis points. With market direction very much connected to US interest rate movement, a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later today could be a market-mover. Powell is expected to discuss inflation and the labour market, and his remarks could echo the hawkish stance that Fed members have been signalling to the markets over the past several weeks. The market pricing for the December meeting is 65% for a 50-bp move and 35% for a 75-bp hike, which means that the markets aren't all on the Fed easing rates. Even if the Fed does slow to 50 bp in December, it will still be a record year of tightening, at 425 basis points. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0359. Above, there is resistance at 1.0490 There is support at 1.0264 and 1.0131
by OANDA
How I see BitcoinHello everyone, this is how I see Bitcoin in the long run. Looking at the weekly timeframe, I am still bearish on Bitcoin right now as it is still trading below the 200-EMA since June 16th, 2022. Also, we're currently in a technical recession after the FED of Atlanta has estimated a negative -2.1% for Quarter 2 of 2022. We already had a negative -1.6% decline for Quarter 1 and now after the FED of Atlanta released their estimates, we're definitely in the technicalities of a recession. If you don't believe we're in a recession right now, just look awful the big retailers did for their Quarter 1 earnings. Walmart and Target did terrible as their revenue went down from consumers cutting their spending due to inflation and of course the cost of gas/diesel, affecting truckers and consumers. Look at Target, when their Q1 earnings were released on May 18th, 2022; they had an excessive inventory as Target highlighted that there is less customer traffic in their stores, meaning that consumers are not spending as much simply because everything is getting too damn expensive, due to inflation! As consumers cut back on their spending, it will obviously affect the GDP. Just look at the consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. It's at the lowest it has ever been recorded. It's not just consumer spending, look at how many times the 2-year and 10-year treasury yields have inverted this year. The 2-year and 10-year treasury yields have inverted multiple times in February, March, April, May, and today, as of typing this right now. Many tech companies like Coinbase, Meta, Tesla, etc., have all stopped hiring people since May of 2022, in order to cut back on Salaries and Wages Expenses, due to inflation and bad market sentiment. I could keep going on and on as there are many indicators of a recession. Obviously, we still have to wait for an official announcement from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 28th, 2022; whether we're in a recession or not. How does this all relate to Bitcoin? Well, for the past 4 months, every time the CPI data was released, Bitcoin always had a negative reaction to it. As inflation increases, this will cause the markets to dip even further, meaning that investors will draw away from their investments and will be on cash instead during a recession. Since we are in technicalities of a recession due to the FED of Atlanta, expect the stock market to have a negative reaction, causing the price of shares to go down, which in result, will cause a negative reaction to the crypto market in the short-term. So July 13th (CPI Data Release) and July 28th (Real GDP Data Release) will be two important days for July 2022. In the meantime, just because I am bearish on Bitcoin doesn't necessarily mean it's the end of the world. I am still bullish on Bitcoin for the long run. Just zoom-out and relax. Disclaimer: (I am not a financial advisor! Always conduct your own research before investing.)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by brandonreymejia
Inflation slowdown for the AussiesToday, the Australian CPI y/y was released at 6.9% (Forecast: 7.6% Previous: 7.3%) which signaled a slowdown in the overall inflation growth. Although 6.9% is still higher than the target level of 2-3%, could this lead to a slowdown in the future interest rate hikes from the RBA? On the release of the economic data, the AUDUSD traded slightly higher from the 0.6680 price level toward the 0.67 round number resistance level. Look for the price to break above 0.67 to signal a stronger reversal higher, with the next key resistance level at 0.6780.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
6
Fed vs. Inflation 4:6CME: SOFR Futures ( CME:SR31! ), E-Micro S&P 500 ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) While football fans are fervently following the 2022 World Cup, we analogize the Federal Reserve’s year-long battle with surging inflation to a football match. In this game, the Core CPI had an early advantage over the Fed Funds Rate, at 6.00% vs. 0.25% in January. The Fed mounted decisive offense, raising rates to 4.00% and bringing the deficit down to 2 points. But make no mistake – we are still trailing in the game. The Fed would not accept defeat. With stoppage time and overtime, the fight against inflation could drag on well into 2023. When could the Fed declare victory? Its stated goal is to keep inflation at 2%. Most of us think this is unrealistic. In my opinion, the Fed needs to bring Core CPI below the Fed Funds rate at a bare minimum. The Fed has been known to be data-driven. Unless there is conclusive data showing the inflation is on the way down and the economy is cooling, the Fed is unlikely to end its monetary tightening policy. The talk of Fed Pivot is very misleading. Slowing the pace of rate hikes doesn’t mean an overhaul of monetary policy. The Fed simply needs time to collect more data and evaluate if previous rate hikes are working. A lot depends on how quickly Core CPI comes down. It peaked at 6.6% in September and lowered to 6.3% in October. But one data point doesn’t make a trend. • In 2022, Core CPI ranges from 5.9% to 6.6%. • In 2021, it was between 1.3% and 5.5%. • The last time Core CPI fell below 4% was in May 2021. • Before 2022, it was 40 years ago (August 1982) when Core CPI went above 6.0%. In the past 1-1/2 years, Core CPI ran up very quickly and then stabilized at a very high level. Any projection of 4% Core CPI is not supported by data. I don’t see Fed would take such hypothesis into consideration. Statistically speaking, bringing Core CPI down below Fed Funds rate could only be achieved by raising rates. The BLS will release November CPI data on December 13th, and the next FOMC meeting is scheduled on December 13th-14th. The Fed would have the most recent inflation data available in voting for its December rate decision. Short-term: Fed Pivot Trade Current market expectation is for the Fed to break its consecutive 75-point hikes. Any rate increase below 75 bp would give a big boost to market morale. Expect the stock market to rally, and the US dollar and bond yield to retreat. CPI data release and Fed decision are the “one-two-punch” ideal for short-term event driven strategies. There are good candidates I like for potential trade setup, from a risk-reward standpoint: • Call Options for CME E-Micro S&P 500 Futures (MES) • Call Options for E-Micro NASDAQ 100 (MNQ) • Call Options for CME Euro FX (M6E) • Call Options for CME 30-day Fed Funds Futures (ZQ) • Call Options for Three-Month SOFR Futures (SR3) For a rate increase below 75 bp, stock market is expected to rally, so it is bullish for MES and MNQ. US dollar will pull back, so it is bullish for Euro/USD exchange rate. Short-term interest rate futures are quoted as discounted instrument, 100 – Rate. Lowered expected interest rates translate into higher futures prices. Therefore, it is also bullish for ZQ and SR3. Medium-term: Recession The world runs on credit. Fed monetary tightening policies have made it more costly for businesses and households to obtain credit. The run-up in cost happened very quickly and the impacts are profound. Below are comparisons of interest rates between December 2021 and November 2022, taken from various sources: • 30-year-fixed mortgage: from 3.646% to 7.296% • 60-month auto loan rate: from 3.85% to 5.29% • Average credit card rate: from 14.91% to 19.20% • AAA corporate bond rate: from 2.06% to 4.64% • BBB corporate bond rate: from 2.53% to 5.88% • SBA loan rate: from 6%-8% to 11.5%-13.5% Even if the Fed stops raising rates now, financing costs are not likely to return to previous levels. The unwinding of Fed policy takes time. There is no indication that the Fed would lower rates after the terminal rate is reached. More likely than not, businesses and households would bear high interest cost well into 2024. While Core CPI excludes food and energy, their impacts are felt everywhere. Take diesel as an example, the national retail average price is $5.228/gallon on November 27th, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). • This is 58.8 cents (-10.1%) below its all-time high of $5.816 set on June 19th. However, it is still 69.7% higher than a year ago. • Comparing to gasoline, at $3.555/gallon, it is $1.461 or 29.1% below its record high of $5.016. But it is a modest increase of 4.7% year over year. Diesel price is a tax on all products requiring highway transportation. Fed rate hikes are not likely to lower diesel production cost. In addition, higher wages, higher rents, and higher borrowing cost would stick, long after the Fed stop hiking rates. In my view, the US could not avoid a recession in 2023. Weakening corporate profit and elevated unemployment will eventually take a toll on stock prices. We have witnessed a strong Black Friday sales season. But worrisome signs emerge that US consumers are increasingly constrained by their budget. According to a CNBC report, Walmart is the most visited shopping destination. Higher priced Bloomingdale and Nordstrom reported a lull in sales earlier this month. The downgrade from premium department stores to discount stores is a leading indicator, a classic economic example that inferior products thrive during a recession. Another warning sign, “Buy Now Pay Later” payments increased by 78% compared with the past week, according to the CNBC report. Consumers still want to get the great deals for holidays, but they need help with financing. If the market rallies after the November CPI data and December FOMC decision, it’s a good time to set up a 3–6-month trade shorting the stock market. Investor sentiment has significant impacts in the short term. But fundamental factors will win over in the medium/long term. If inflation fails to decline materially, the Fed will stay on its tightening course. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZQ1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
5